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NEV

Nevada 41 at Boise State 31

BOIS
2021 · Week 5 · Oct 2, 2021 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDFGTDTDEnd of GameFG-3BOIS 7.4%Brandon Talton 38 yd FG GOODAWAY 41 - HOME 24 · Q4 10:42
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:42 · Brandon Talton 38 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 139Home team on offense−36.3Score differential−17.6Garbage-time factor−10.0Pregame prior+1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:26: Devonte Lee run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +5.8 pts (now 46%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:28: Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 5 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +8.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:55: Toa Taua run for 12 yds for a TD, (Carson Strong pass to Romeo Doubs for Two-Point Conversion) — NEV win probability +19.0 pts (now 63%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 6:01: Brandon Talton 33 yd FG GOOD — NEV win probability +10.1 pts (now 65%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:40: Toa Taua run for 22 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +16.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 6NEV made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 4:54NEV 4th & 10 at BOIS 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    38.3%−1.4
    average punt
  2. Q2 5:55BOIS 4th & 29 at BOIS 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−3.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 3:47NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−1.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%
    average punt
  4. Q3 8:59BOIS 4th & 7 at NEV 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%−1.4
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    30.4%−12.1
    average punt
  5. Q3 6:01NEV 4th & 10 at BOIS 16, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−2.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    41.7%−12.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 3:28BOIS 4th & 30 at BOIS 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−6.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%
    average punt
  7. Q4 14:10BOIS 4th & 4 at NEV 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    16.5%−2.3
    25% to make
    Punt
    17.8%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q4 12:47NEV 4th & 14 at NEV 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−2.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:42NEV 4th & 2 at BOIS 21, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.3%−1.0
    74% to make
    Punt
    83.3%−7.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:09BOIS 4th & 3 at NEV 8, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    6.9%−0.3
    90% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−3.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:09NEV 4th & 2 at BOIS 40, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    90.9%−1.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    90.7%−1.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:17BOIS 4th & 8 at NEV 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.7%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 10:36NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:47BOIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:53BOIS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:26NEV Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:28BOIS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:55NEV Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    55.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    55.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:40NEV Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:15BOIS Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.8%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1TD
13 plays · 67 yds · 14:5342% → 50%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
58.2%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+1
58.2%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 34Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+19
58.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 19 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
58.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 8 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+16
58.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 16 yds to the BoiSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
58.2%
Carson Strong sacked by Isaiah Bagnah for 0 yards to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 16
OPP 29
+8
58.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 8 yds to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+12
58.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 12 yds to the BoiSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
58.2%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 7Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 2
OPP 39
0
58.2%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 2
OPP 39
0
58.2%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
56.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 7 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 39
0
50.5%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 2:4357% → 59%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
56.7%
George Holani run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 4
OWN 25
0
56.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 4
OWN 25
0
56.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:53
4TH & 4
OWN 25
+6
56.2%
VELAZQUEZ, Joel punt 45 yards to the NEV30, fair catch by DOUBS, Romeo. PENALTY NEV Offsides on TONEY, JR., Richard enforced 6 yards from the BSU25 to the BSU31 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
56.6%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+18
56.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 18 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+27
57.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 27 yds to the Nevad 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 20
OPP 30
+5
57.0%
George Holani run for 5 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 15
OPP 25
+25
58.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 25 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3FG
9 plays · 54 yds · 2:5342% → 43%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
58.2%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+39
58.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 39 yds to the BoiSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
57.2%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+4
57.2%
Romeo Doubs run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+4
57.4%
Devonte Lee run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
57.2%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
57.2%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
57.5%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:54
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+38
57.4%
Brandon Talton 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 3:5557% → 61%
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
57.0%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Tristan Nichols for 0 yards to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 15
OWN 22
+12
56.8%
George Holani run for 12 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+13
57.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 13 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
58.0%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 4 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+23
58.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 23 yds to the Nevad 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
58.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Habibi-Likio for no gain to the Nevad 26Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
58.6%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 3 yds to the Nevad 23Similar
Q1 0:53
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+23
61.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 23 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5TD
12 plays · 57 yds · 3:2141% → 46%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
59.1%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+13
59.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 13 yds to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
58.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 4 yds to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+7
58.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 7 yds to the BoiSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
58.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 3 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+10
58.1%
Devonte Lee run for 10 yds to the BoiSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
58.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 4 yds to the BoiSt 16Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+2
59.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 2 yds to the BoiSt 14Similar
Q2 13:04
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+12
60.3%
STRONG, Carson pass to the left incomplete intended for DOUBS, Romeo thrown to the BSU0. PENALTY BSU Pass Interference on ROBINSON, Rodney enforced at the spot of the foul for 12 yards to the BSU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
59.5%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
53.7%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6PUNT
15 plays · 25 yds · 6:2657% → 54%
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
56.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+7
56.4%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q2 12:21
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+3
56.1%
Hank Bachmeier run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
56.8%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+3
58.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 3 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
58.0%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
58.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:21
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+6
57.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
50
+6
58.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Andrew Van Buren for 6 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+3
58.7%
Andrew Van Buren run for 3 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q2 12:21
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+3
58.5%
Andrew Van Buren run for 3 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-19
58.7%
run for a loss of 19 yards to the BoiSt 43 fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Hank BachmeierSimilar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 29
OWN 43
+21
56.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Kurt Rafdal for 21 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q2 12:21
3RD & 8
OPP 36
-21
58.3%
run for a loss of 21 yards to the BoiSt 43 fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Hank BachmeierSimilar
Q2 5:55
4TH & 29
OWN 43
0
53.5%
Joel Velazquez punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:0846% → 45%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
53.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for no gain to the Nevad 20Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
53.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 6 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
53.9%
Carson Strong sacked by Isaiah Bagnah for 0 yards to the Nevad 22Similar
Q2 3:47
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+40
55.1%
Julian Diaz punt for 58 yds , Khalil Shakir returns for 40 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8TD
3 plays · 40 yds · 1:1957% → 68%
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+33
57.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 33 yds to the Nevad 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
58.6%
Andrew Van Buren run for 2 yds to the Nevad 5Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
67.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 5 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 2:2236% → 44%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
64.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 5 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 5
OWN 29
0
63.8%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+8
64.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 8 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
63.7%
NEVADA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 32Similar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+3
64.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 3 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
64.7%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+23
65.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 23 yds to the BoiSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
63.6%
Carson Strong sacked by Isaiah Bagnah for 0 yards to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 15
OPP 47
+12
65.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 12 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+15
63.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 15 yds to the BoiSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
62.0%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+37
56.3%
Brandon Talton 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10FUMBLE
1 play · -7 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.3%
Hank Bachmeier sacked for 0 yards to the BoiSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11TD
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:5543% → 63%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
56.7%
Devonte Lee run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 14Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+13
56.7%
Toa Taua run for 13 yds to the BoiSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
56.7%
NEVADA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 6Similar
Q3 14:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
56.7%
STRONG, Carson pass to the left incomplete intended for TURNER, Cole thrown to the BSU0. PENALTY BSU Pass Interference on BIGGERS, Caleb enforced at the spot of the foul for 4 yards to the BSU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
56.4%
TAUA, Toa rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the BSU0, TOUCHDOWN NEV, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY Before the snap, NEV Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the BSU2 to the BSU7. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
56.4%
NEVADA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 12Similar
Q3 12:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
37.4%
Toa Taua run for 12 yds for a TD, (Carson Strong pass to Romeo Doubs for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 3:5642% → 51%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
42.1%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 10 yds to the BoiSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
42.6%
BACHMEIER, Hank pass up the middle incomplete intended for COBBS, Stefan thrown to the NEV30. PENALTY NEV Pass Interference on COOKS, Elijah enforced 15 yards to the BSU50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
50
+2
45.6%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 2 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+14
45.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 14 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
47.3%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 2 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+15
47.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 15 yds to the Nevad 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
47.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+1
47.4%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd to the Nevad 16Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+2
45.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Habibi-Likio for 2 yds to the Nevad 14Similar
Q3 8:59
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+31
50.6%
Jonah Dalmas 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13FG
6 plays · 59 yds · 2:5852% → 65%
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
47.6%
Toa Taua run for 21 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+38
45.1%
Toa Taua run for 38 yds to the BoiSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
42.9%
Carson Strong run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 18Similar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 12
OPP 18
0
43.4%
Devonte Lee run for no gain to the BoiSt 18Similar
Q3 8:59
3RD & 12
OPP 18
+2
45.0%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 16Similar
Q3 6:01
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+33
34.8%
Brandon Talton 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:2539% → 35%
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
38.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 6 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+22
40.4%
Andrew Van Buren run for 22 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
43.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+1
42.5%
Andrew Van Buren run for 1 yd to the Nevad 46Similar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 9
OPP 46
0
41.3%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Sam Hammond for 0 yards to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q3 3:28
4TH & 30
OWN 33
0
34.7%
Joel Velazquez punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15TD
3 plays · 60 yds · 0:4870% → 86%
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
30.5%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+35
30.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 35 yds to the BoiSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
14.4%
Toa Taua run for 22 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16DOWNS
10 plays · 36 yds · 3:2619% → 18%
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
19.0%
Andrew Van Buren run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
18.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+14
18.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to CT Thomas for 14 yds to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
20.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 7 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+2
21.3%
Andrew Van Buren run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+4
21.2%
CT Thomas run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
21.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
18.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+6
17.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 6 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 4
OPP 45
+2
18.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to CT Thomas for 2 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:2389% → 88%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
11.5%
Devonte Lee run for a loss of 5 yards to the Nevad 38Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+1
11.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 1 yd to the Nevad 39Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 14
OWN 39
0
12.0%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:47
4TH & 14
OWN 39
0
11.8%
Julian Diaz punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:0015% → 10%
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+14
14.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 14 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
9.7%
NEVADA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5590% → 93%
Q4 12:37
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+2
9.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 2 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 13
OPP 32
0
10.0%
Avery Morrow run for no gain to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 13
OPP 32
+11
10.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 11 yds to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q4 10:42
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+38
7.4%
Brandon Talton 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
6.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass intercepted return for no gain to the BoiSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · -25 yds · 2:1994% → 94%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
6.2%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 7
OPP 22
-15
6.2%
MORROW, Avery rush to the right for no gain to the BSU22 (JONES, Tyreque). PENALTY NEV Chop Block on LEDBETTER, Jermaine enforced 15 yards from the BSU22 to the BSU37 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 22
OPP 37
-5
6.3%
NEVADA Penalty, False Start (Jamaal Bell) to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 27
OPP 42
0
6.3%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 27
OPP 42
0
6.3%
Carson Strong sacked by Dylan Herberg for 0 yards to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q4 10:28
4TH & 30
OPP 45
-5
7.0%
NEVADA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:09
4TH & 35
50
0
5.7%
punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 4:546% → 13%
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
6.0%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Dom Peterson for 0 yards to the BoiSt 14Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+6
5.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Kurt Rafdal for 6 yds to the BoiSt 20Similar
Q4 8:09
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+35
5.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 35 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
6.8%
NEVADA Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Trevor Price) to the Nevad 40Similar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 5
OPP 40
0
7.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:09
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+11
7.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Tyneil Hopper for 11 yds to the Nevad 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
7.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Habibi-Likio for 5 yds to the Nevad 10Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
7.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:09
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+2
7.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 2 yds to the Nevad 8Similar
Q4 8:09
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+4
7.2%
Hank Bachmeier run for 4 yds to the Nevad 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
7.6%
Andrew Van Buren run for no gain to the Nevad 4Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
7.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
7.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to CT Thomas for 3 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+1
7.6%
Hank Bachmeier run for 1 yd to the Nevad 26Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
12.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 4 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 5
OPP 40
+10
12.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Kurt Rafdal for 10 yds to the Nevad 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:0392% → 94%
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
8.1%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
6.1%
Devonte Lee run for no gain to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+6
6.0%
Devonte Lee run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q4 2:09
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+1
6.3%
Devonte Lee run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 24DOWNS
9 plays · 20 yds · 1:526% → 3%
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
5.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 8 yds to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 2
OWN 47
0
6.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:09
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+4
6.2%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 4 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
6.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Habibi-Likio for 9 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 1
OPP 40
0
3.7%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Dom Peterson for 0 yards to the Nevad 48Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+6
3.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Kurt Rafdal for 6 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 3
OPP 42
-5
3.1%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (Stefan Cobbs) to the Nevad 47Similar
Q4 0:17
4TH & 8
OPP 47
+6
2.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Habibi-Likio for 6 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:55
Toa Taua run for 12 yds for a TD, (Carson Strong pass to Romeo Doubs for Two-Point Conversion)
-19
TD · Q3 2:40
Toa Taua run for 22 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)
-16.1
FG · Q3 6:01
Brandon Talton 33 yd FG GOOD
-10.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com