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BOIS

Boise State 27 at Utah State 3

USU
2021 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2021 · Maverik Stadium
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Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:57 · Joel Velazquez punt for 33 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.5+26.80−26.8−53.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 29Pregame prior−25.2Home team on offense−1.0Score differential−0.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:56: Andrew Van Buren run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +3.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:32: Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 3 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +8.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:57: John Gentry run for 7 yds to the UthSt 19 — USU win probability +4.0 pts (now 11%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:03: Khalil Shakir run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 27 — BOIS win probability +4.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 10:29: Jonah Dalmas 32 yd FG GOOD — BOIS win probability +2.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10BOIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 10:17BOIS 4th & 3 at USU 10, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.1%−0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    69.6%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:49USU 4th & 7 at BOIS 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    30.8%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    30.7%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:57BOIS 4th & 9 at USU 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    68.4%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:52USU 4th & 15 at BOIS 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:42BOIS 4th & 5 at USU 33, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.6%−0.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    71.2%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:30USU 4th & 10 at USU 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:28BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:10USU 4th & 18 at USU 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−1.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:59BOIS 4th & 12 at BOIS 43, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:15USU 4th & 8 at BOIS 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−1.4
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.1%
    79% to make
    Punt
    21.3%−3.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:27BOIS 4th & 3 at USU 43, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    74.8%−1.9
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:53USU 4th & 10 at USU 26, down 10
    Numbers favored punt by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.7%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:07USU 4th & 5 at USU 23, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:34BOIS 4th & 14 at BOIS 30, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−1.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:32USU 4th & 6 at USU 46, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:03USU 4th & 3 at BOIS 3, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.7%−1.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−8.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:29BOIS 4th & 12 at USU 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−1.5
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    86.0%−5.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:54USU 4th & 8 at USU 32, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 0:56BOIS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:32BOIS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 5:09BOIS Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USUDrive 1INT
3 plays · 28 yds · 0:5522% → 22%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
21.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Justin McGriff for 28 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
21.8%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for no gain to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
22.3%
Logan Bonner pass intercepted return for no gain to the BoiSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:4878% → 76%
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
22.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 14 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
22.2%
Khalil Shakir run for 4 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+11
22.2%
Hank Bachmeier run for 11 yds to the UthSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
22.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 6 yds to the UthSt 22Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+5
22.2%
George Holani run for 5 yds to the UthSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
22.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+2
22.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Davis Koetter for 2 yds to the UthSt 15Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+5
22.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to George Holani for 5 yds to the UthSt 10Similar
Q1 10:17
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+28
23.7%
Jonah Dalmas 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3DOWNS
11 plays · 40 yds · 2:2824% → 25%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
23.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 5 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+12
23.9%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 12 yds to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
24.2%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 37Similar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+6
23.9%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 6 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
24.7%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:06
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+19
24.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 19 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
24.7%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+1
24.7%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q1 9:06
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
24.6%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:49
4TH & 7
OPP 35
0
24.8%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:5275% → 75%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
24.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to CT Thomas for 8 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+10
24.4%
CT Thomas run for 10 yds to the UthSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
24.3%
Khalil Shakir run for 4 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 6
OPP 43
-3
24.3%
George Holani run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 46Similar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 9
OPP 46
0
24.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:57
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
25.6%
Joel Velazquez punt for 33 ydsSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
25.0%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5MISSED FG
15 plays · 63 yds · 4:0525% → 26%
Q1 5:57
1ST & 15
OWN 8
0
24.8%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 15
OWN 8
+14
24.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 14 yds to the UthSt 22Similar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+4
24.8%
Elelyon Noa run for 4 yds to the UthSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
25.1%
Elelyon Noa run for 2 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+7
25.1%
Elelyon Noa run for 7 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+35
25.3%
Elelyon Noa run for 35 yds to the BoiSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
26.2%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-1
26.2%
John Gentry run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 11
OPP 31
+12
25.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to John Gentry for 12 yds to the BoiSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-10
26.2%
GENTRY, John rush to the left for a gain of 6 yards to the BSU13 (ROBINSON, Rodney). PENALTY USU Holding on ALI'IFUA, Demytrick enforced 10 yards from the BSU19 to the BSU29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 20
OPP 29
0
26.1%
Logan Bonner sacked by Ezekiel Noa for 0 yards to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 25
OPP 34
+15
25.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 15 yds to the BoiSt 19Similar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
25.9%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:57
4TH & 10
OPP 19
-5
25.3%
UTAH ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q1 1:52
4TH & 15
OPP 24
+41
26.2%
Connor Coles 41 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 0:5673% → 78%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+69
26.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 69 yds to the UthSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
25.4%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 12Similar
Q1 1:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
0
25.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+10
25.8%
BACHMEIER, Hank pass to the right incomplete intended for EVANS, Octavius thrown to the USU0. PENALTY USU Pass Interference on LAMPKIN, Cam enforced 10 yards to the USU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
22.1%
Andrew Van Buren run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7INT
8 plays · 58 yds · 2:1122% → 23%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
22.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Justin McGriff for 1 yd to the UthSt 26Similar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
22.2%
Logan Bonner run for 2 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q1 0:56
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+22
22.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
50
+11
23.2%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 11 yds to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+22
23.3%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 22 yds to the BoiSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
23.8%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
23.8%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for no gain to the BoiSt 17Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
23.1%
Logan Bonner pass intercepted return for no gain to the BoiSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8MISSED FG
7 plays · 66 yds · 3:0376% → 77%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
23.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+6
23.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Davis Koetter for 6 yds to the BoiSt 7Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+55
24.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Habibi-Likio for 55 yds to the UthSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
22.4%
Khalil Shakir run for 1 yd to the UthSt 37Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+6
22.5%
Khalil Shakir run for 6 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 3
OPP 31
-2
22.5%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 33Similar
Q2 10:42
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+50
23.0%
Jonah Dalmas 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1222% → 22%
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
22.3%
John Gentry run for 3 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-5
22.6%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 31Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+2
22.0%
John Gentry run for 2 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
21.9%
Andrew Peasley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:30
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
21.5%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Khalil Shakir at the BoiSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:0276% → 77%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
23.6%
Hank Bachmeier run for 12 yds to the BoiSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
23.2%
CT Thomas run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+3
22.9%
George Holani run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
22.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
22.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for no gain to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
23.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:28
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
22.7%
Joel Velazquez punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1822% → 21%
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
21.7%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the UthSt 23Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+9
21.7%
Andrew Peasley run for 9 yds to the UthSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
21.9%
Andrew Peasley run for 6 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
Q2 7:28
3RD & 18
OWN 24
0
21.3%
Andrew Peasley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:10
4TH & 18
OWN 24
0
21.1%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Khalil Shakir at the BoiSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 8 yds · 2:1178% → 78%
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
21.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 5 yds to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+1
21.1%
George Holani run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q2 5:11
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+4
20.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Davis Koetter for 4 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
20.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
20.6%
UTAH ST Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 5
50
+3
20.4%
Hank Bachmeier run for 3 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 2
OPP 47
0
20.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:20
4TH & 2
OPP 47
-10
21.2%
BACHMEIER, Hank pass to the left complete for 27 yards to EVANS, Octavius caught at the USU50 and advanced to the USU20 (CARTER, Ajani;GRAYSON, Andre). PENALTY BSU Holding enforced 10 yards from the USU47 to the BSU43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:59
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
22.1%
Joel Velazquez punt for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13MISSED FG
10 plays · 81 yds · 3:4421% → 21%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+10
20.6%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 10 yds to the UthSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
21.0%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 3 yds to the UthSt 14Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+2
21.0%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the UthSt 16Similar
Q2 3:59
3RD & 5
OWN 16
+44
20.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 44 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
22.8%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+13
23.6%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 13 yds to the BoiSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
23.6%
Logan Bonner run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 18Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
23.6%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:59
3RD & 8
OPP 18
0
22.9%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+36
21.0%
Connor Coles 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:3378% → 79%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
21.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+20
22.1%
Hank Bachmeier run for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+1
20.9%
Octavius Evans run for 1 yd to the UthSt 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+7
21.0%
George Holani run for 7 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 42
-1
21.3%
George Holani run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 43Similar
Q3 12:27
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
21.4%
Joel Velazquez punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16DOWNS
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:3421% → 20%
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+20
20.9%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 20 yds to the UthSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
21.5%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for no gain to the UthSt 26Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
21.2%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for no gain to the UthSt 26Similar
Q3 12:27
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
20.4%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:53
4TH & 10
OWN 26
-8
19.7%
Stephen Kotsanlee run for a loss of 8 yards to the UthSt 18Similar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
19.9%
PENALTY BSU Unsportsmanlike Conduct on TEUBNER, Alexander USU Unsportsmanlike Conduct on ALO, Johnny , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17TD
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:4480% → 90%
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+16
19.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 16 yds to the UthSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-10
19.2%
VAN BUREN, Andrew rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the USU0, TOUCHDOWN BSU, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY BSU Holding on DOOLEY, Ben enforced 10 yards from the USU2 to the USU12 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+9
19.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Riley Smith for 9 yds to the UthSt 3Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
10.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 3 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1613% → 12%
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
12.7%
Pailate Makakona run for 4 yds to the UthSt 22Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 6
OWN 22
0
12.7%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+1
12.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Carson Terrell for 1 yd to the UthSt 23Similar
Q3 8:07
4TH & 5
OWN 23
0
12.2%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Khalil Shakir at the BoiSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:3389% → 89%
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
11.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 6 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+5
11.1%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
11.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-4
11.3%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for a loss of 4 yards to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q3 8:07
3RD & 14
OWN 30
0
11.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:34
4TH & 14
OWN 30
+28
11.0%
Joel Velazquez punt for 56 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 28 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0213% → 13%
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
13.2%
Andrew Peasley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
12.9%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 4 yds to the UthSt 46Similar
Q3 6:34
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
13.0%
Andrew Peasley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:32
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
12.5%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21INT
14 plays · 62 yds · 3:3590% → 93%
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+15
10.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 15 yds to the BoiSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
10.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
10.3%
BOISE ST Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+17
10.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Riley Smith for 17 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
9.8%
HOLANI, George rush up the middle for no gain to the BSU37 (VONGPHACHANH, AJ). PENALTY Before the snap, USU Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the BSU37 to the BSU42. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 5
OWN 42
0
9.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+5
9.5%
George Holani run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
9.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Billy Bowens for 11 yds to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
9.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-5
9.3%
BOISE ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the UthSt 47Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 15
OPP 47
+15
9.5%
BACHMEIER, Hank pass up the middle incomplete intended for THOMAS, CT thrown to the USU40. PENALTY USU Personal Foul on VAKAUTA, Poukesi enforced 15 yards from the USU47 to the USU32 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
9.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
9.2%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Cash Gilliam for 0 yards to the UthSt 33Similar
Q3 1:57
3RD & 11
OPP 33
0
6.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass intercepted return for no gain to the UthSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22FG
9 plays · 85 yds · 2:5411% → 13%
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
10.7%
John Gentry run for 7 yds to the UthSt 19Similar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+5
10.8%
John Gentry run for 5 yds to the UthSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+28
10.9%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 28 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+41
10.7%
John Gentry run for 41 yds to the BoiSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
11.2%
John Gentry run for no gain to the BoiSt 7Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
11.2%
Andrew Peasley run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 3Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
10.5%
Andrew Peasley run for no gain to the BoiSt 3Similar
Q4 14:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
12.8%
Connor Coles 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 23FG
8 plays · 60 yds · 3:3492% → 95%
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
8.3%
Khalil Shakir run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
8.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to CT Thomas for 3 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+24
8.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to CT Thomas for 24 yds to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+19
7.4%
UTAH ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Ajani Carter) to the UthSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
7.0%
Khalil Shakir run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 14Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 11
OPP 14
0
7.4%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Nick Heninger for 0 yards to the UthSt 23Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 20
OPP 23
+8
7.6%
CT Thomas run for 8 yds to the UthSt 15Similar
Q4 10:29
4TH & 12
OPP 15
+32
5.2%
Jonah Dalmas 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 24FUMBLE
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:535% → 5%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
4.5%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 6 yds to the UthSt 23Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+7
4.6%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 7 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
4.5%
Andrew Peasley sacked for 0 yards to the UthSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 25TD
12 plays · 15 yds · 4:1696% → 100%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
4.1%
George Holani run for 15 yds for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Khalil Shakir) to the UthSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 15
OPP 20
0
4.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 15
OPP 20
+5
4.2%
George Holani run for 5 yds to the UthSt 15Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+5
4.3%
BACHMEIER, Hank pass to the right complete for 8 yards to RAFDAL, Kurt caught at the USU7 and advanced to the USU7 (RICE, Justin). PENALTY USU Offsides on CARTER, Ajani enforced 5 yards from the USU15 to the USU10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+6
4.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to George Holani for 6 yds to the UthSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
3.5%
George Holani run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 7Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
2.6%
George Holani run for 3 yds to the UthSt 4Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
2.7%
BACHMEIER, Hank pass to the left incomplete intended for SHAKIR, Khalil thrown to the USU0. PENALTY USU Pass Interference on LAMPKIN, Cam enforced 2 yards to the USU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
2.6%
Taylen Green run for 1 yd to the UthSt 1Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
2.6%
Andrew Van Buren run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 3Similar
Q4 5:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Scott Matlock for 3 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 17 yds · 1:081% → 1%
Q4 5:02
1ST & 25
OWN 15
+12
0.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 12 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 13
OWN 27
0
0.7%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 13
OWN 27
+5
0.7%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 5 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q4 3:54
4TH & 8
OWN 32
-4
0.7%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 43 yds , Khalil Shakir returns for a loss of 4 yards to the BoiSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
4 plays · 26 yds · 0:0099% → 100%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
0.6%
Tyler Crowe run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+8
0.6%
Hank Bachmeier run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
0.5%
Tyler Crowe run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+4
0.5%
Tyler Crowe run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:32
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 3 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
-8.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 14:03
Khalil Shakir run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 27
-4.5
KEY PLAY · Q3 1:57
John Gentry run for 7 yds to the UthSt 19
+4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com