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USU

Utah State 49 at Air Force 45

AF
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG—AF 77.5%Matthew Dapore 15 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 10 · Q1 5:34
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:34 · Matthew Dapore 15 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 29Pregame prior+22.6Home team on offense+2.5Garbage-time factor+0.8Score differential+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 3:18: Brandon Bowling 37 Yd pass from Andrew Peasley (Connor Coles Kick) — USU win probability +20.4 pts (now 53%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:52: Emmanuel Michel 55 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick) — AF win probability +17.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:37: Haaziq Daniels 39 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick) — AF win probability +15.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:51: Deven Thompkins 72 Yd pass from Andrew Peasley (Andrew Peasley Run for Two-Point Conversion) — USU win probability +18.9 pts (now 28%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:54: Calvin Tyler Jr. 61 Yd Run (Connor Coles Kick) — USU win probability +38.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 6USU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 9:45USU 4th & 6 at AF 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    25.9%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:34AF 4th & 4 at USU 5, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.7%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    73.1%−1.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:17USU 4th & 1 at AF 1, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    23.7%−1.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    20.7%−4.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:29AF 4th & 2 at AF 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    65.3%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:48USU 4th & 8 at USU 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:07USU 4th & 7 at AF 49, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:57AF 4th & 2 at USU 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    70.7%−3.6
    25% to make
    Punt
    72.5%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:57AF 4th & 2 at USU 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    70.7%−3.6
    25% to make
    Punt
    72.5%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:05AF 4th & 7 at AF 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−1.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:26USU 4th & 11 at USU 5, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−3.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:56AF 4th & 2 at AF 45, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:56USU 4th & 3 at USU 22, down 1
    Close callWent for it · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.7%−0.7
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    33.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5USU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:46AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:17USU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:16USU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    34.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:19AF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:56AF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:48USU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:18USU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:52AF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:37AF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 9:51USU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    25.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    24.2%−1.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1477% → 77%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
76.6%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
76.6%
Micah Davis run for 9 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
76.6%
Brad Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
76.6%
Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+59
76.6%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Kyle Patterson for 59 yds to the UthSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
77.0%
Micah Davis run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 40 yds · 1:5623% → 23%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
76.7%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for no gain to the UthSt 16Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
76.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for no gain to the UthSt 16Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+10
76.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 10 yds to the UthSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
76.7%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 16 yds to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
76.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 10 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
76.4%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 4 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
76.4%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Kyle Van LeeuwenSimilar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 6
OPP 44
0
76.5%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Elelyon NoaSimilar
Q1 9:45
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
76.7%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3FG
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1177% → 78%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
76.9%
Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+9
76.9%
Micah Davis run for 9 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
77.0%
Brad Roberts run for 8 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 2
OWN 39
-15
77.2%
PENALTY USU Personal Foul (Moore,Marcus) 15 yards from AF 39 to USU46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
77.3%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+33
77.3%
Brandon Lewis run for 33 yds to the UthSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
77.3%
Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the UthSt 8Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+3
77.3%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the UthSt 5Similar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 4
OPP 5
0
77.5%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Micah DavisSimilar
Q1 5:34
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+15
77.5%
Matthew Dapore 15 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4TD
17 plays · 71 yds · 4:1223% → 26%
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
76.7%
PENALTY USU False Start (Thompkins,Deven) 5 yards from USU29 to USU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+10
76.9%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 10 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+2
76.6%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+35
76.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 35 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
75.8%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
75.8%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Brandon BowlingSimilar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+10
76.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 10 yds to the AFA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
75.8%
Logan Bonner run for 2 yds to the AFA 15Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 8
OPP 15
0
75.8%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Brandon BowlingSimilar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+8
76.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 8 yds to the AFA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
75.8%
Logan Bonner run for no gain to the AFA 7Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
75.8%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for no gain to the AFA 7Similar
Q1 5:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
76.1%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 6 yds to the AFA 1Similar
Q1 1:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.6%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5INT
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:1575% → 75%
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
75.1%
Micah Davis run for 4 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 14
OPP 44
+24
74.5%
Haaziq Daniels run for 24 yds to the UthSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
75.2%
DeAndre Hughes run for 5 yds to the UthSt 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+4
75.2%
DeAndre Hughes run for 4 yds to the UthSt 11Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+5
74.7%
PENALTY USU Offside 5 yards from USU11 to USU06, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
75.2%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the UthSt 5Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
75.1%
Haaziq Daniels pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6TD
12 plays · 92 yds · 3:4526% → 34%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
74.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Josh Sterzer for 3 yds to the UthSt 11Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+5
74.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to John Gentry for 5 yds to the UthSt 16Similar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+19
74.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 19 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
73.5%
John Gentry run for 5 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-5
72.8%
PENALTY USU False Start 5 yards from USU40 to USU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
73.7%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Deven ThompkinsSimilar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+45
74.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 45 yds to the AFA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
71.9%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Justin McGriff for 1 yd to the AFA 19Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+2
71.9%
John Gentry run for 2 yds to the AFA 21Similar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 11
OPP 21
+11
72.6%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Justin McGriff for 11 yds to the AFA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
71.9%
John Gentry run for 4 yds to the AFA 6Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
66.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 6 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 1:5569% → 75%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
69.2%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Kyle PattersonSimilar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+7
68.9%
Micah Davis run for 7 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+1
68.3%
Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 37Similar
Q2 9:29
4TH & 2
OWN 37
+7
67.2%
Dane Kinamon run for 7 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
74.7%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Micah Davis for 56 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:3127% → 26%
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
72.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 2 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
72.5%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Derek WrightSimilar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
73.4%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Derek WrightSimilar
Q2 7:48
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
74.2%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the AFA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 6:5274% → 86%
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.8%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to David CormierSimilar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
73.6%
Brad Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 25Similar
Q2 7:48
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+21
73.0%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Micah Davis for 21 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
75.4%
Jorden Gidrey run for 1 yd to the AFA 45Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+3
74.6%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q2 7:48
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+13
74.4%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to David Cormier for 13 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
75.7%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
75.7%
Brad Roberts run for no gain to the UthSt 35Similar
Q2 7:48
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+7
75.1%
Jorden Gidrey run for 7 yds to the UthSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
75.7%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the UthSt 25Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+6
75.7%
Micah Davis run for 6 yds to the UthSt 19Similar
Q2 7:48
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+2
75.1%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the UthSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
75.7%
Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the UthSt 18Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+5
75.9%
PENALTY USU Offside (Vakauta,Poukesi) 5 yards from USU18 to USU13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+7
76.0%
Haaziq Daniels run for 7 yds to the UthSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
76.0%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the UthSt 3Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
84.7%
Dane Kinamon 3 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)Similar
Q2 0:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
86.3%
PENALTY AF False Start 5 yards from USU03 to USU08. NO PLAY., (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10DOWNS
12 plays · 26 yds · 0:4915% → 17%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
84.6%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 5 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
84.1%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Deven ThompkinsSimilar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
84.3%
Bonner,Logan pass incomplete to Bowling,Brandon broken up by Goodwin,Jayden PENALTY AF Offside (Jackson,Jordan) 5 yards from USU30 to USU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
84.1%
Logan Bonner run for 3 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+10
84.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 10 yds to the UthSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
83.4%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Deven ThompkinsSimilar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+8
83.8%
John Gentry run for 8 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+5
81.4%
PENALTY USU False Start (Gentry,John) 5 yards from AF 44 to AF 49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
82.6%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Deven ThompkinsSimilar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
83.3%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Justin McGriffSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
84.4%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 1:2817% → 19%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
83.3%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 4 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+8
83.2%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 8 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
83.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Josh Sterzer for 18 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
82.4%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Josh SterzerSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+10
82.5%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 10 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
81.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Justin McGriff for 5 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+24
81.4%
Justin McGriff 24 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0986% → 85%
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.7%
Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-10
85.7%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the AFA 18Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+33
85.5%
Brad Roberts run for 33 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
86.6%
Haaziq Daniels sacked by Nick Heninger for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 49Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+51
84.9%
Emmanuel Michel 51 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:2917% → 32%
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
83.2%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Justin McGriff for 13 yds to the UthSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
82.5%
Pailate Makakona run for 2 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+3
82.4%
Pailate Makakona run for 3 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+6
82.6%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Justin McGriff for 6 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
81.8%
Pailate Makakona run for no gain to the UthSt 49Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
82.1%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Josh Sterzer for no gain to the UthSt 49Similar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+10
82.7%
Andrew Peasley run for 10 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+35
81.6%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 35 yds to the AFA 6 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
80.4%
Andrew Peasley run for 1 yd to the AFA 5Similar
Q3 7:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
67.8%
Carson Terrell 5 Yd pass from Andrew Peasley (Connor Coles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15DOWNS
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:5175% → 75%
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
74.5%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+17
75.0%
Brad Roberts run for 17 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
76.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the UthSt 48Similar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+2
77.1%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the UthSt 46Similar
Q3 7:48
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+1
76.5%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the UthSt 45Similar
Q3 4:57
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+1
74.6%
Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the UthSt 44Similar
Q3 4:57
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+1
74.6%
Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the UthSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 1:3931% → 53%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
68.8%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 3 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
68.0%
Andrew Peasley pass incomplete to Justin McGriffSimilar
Q3 4:57
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+17
69.6%
Andrew Peasley run for 17 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
67.5%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 1 yd to the AFA 37Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 11
OPP 37
0
67.8%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for no gain to the AFA 37Similar
Q3 3:18
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+37
47.4%
Brandon Bowling 37 Yd pass from Andrew Peasley (Connor Coles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:2653% → 76%
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
53.4%
Brad Roberts run for 9 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
56.6%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
55.8%
Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
58.0%
DeAndre Hughes run for no gain to the AFA 45Similar
Q3 0:52
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+55
75.9%
Emmanuel Michel 55 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18INT
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:5926% → 26%
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.1%
Derek Wright pass incomplete to John GentrySimilar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
74.4%
John Gentry run for 5 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+16
74.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 16 yds to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-7
70.6%
Logan Bonner sacked by Vince Sanford for a loss of 7 yards to the UthSt 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 39
+6
73.9%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 6 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q4 13:53
3RD & 11
OWN 45
0
73.7%
Logan Bonner pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4878% → 74%
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
77.7%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
77.9%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Kyle PattersonSimilar
Q4 13:53
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
76.5%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Micah DavisSimilar
Q4 13:05
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
74.4%
Charles Bein punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:3925% → 23%
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
74.7%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the UthSt 5Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 11
OWN 5
0
75.2%
Andrew Peasley pass incomplete to Brandon BowlingSimilar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 11
OWN 5
0
76.5%
Andrew Peasley pass incomplete to Deven ThompkinsSimilar
Q4 12:26
4TH & 11
OWN 5
0
77.5%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 1:4978% → 93%
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
50
+1
78.3%
Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the UthSt 49Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+4
78.2%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+6
77.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
92.6%
Haaziq Daniels 39 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:388% → 28%
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.7%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 3 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
91.0%
Andrew Peasley pass incomplete to Brandon BowlingSimilar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+72
72.1%
Deven Thompkins 72 Yd pass from Andrew Peasley (Andrew Peasley Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:5569% → 70%
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
69.3%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
69.6%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
68.9%
DeAndre Hughes run for 5 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
70.8%
Haaziq Daniels run for 4 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+4
72.4%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
72.0%
Micah Davis run for no gain to the AFA 45Similar
Q4 5:56
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
70.4%
Charles Bein punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 24TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 2:0235% → 77%
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
65.2%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 1 yd to the UthSt 16Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 9
OWN 16
-5
65.6%
Andrew Peasley sacked by Vince Sanford for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 11Similar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 14
OWN 11
+11
67.3%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 11 yds to the UthSt 22Similar
Q4 5:56
4TH & 3
OWN 22
+17
67.9%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Carson Terrell for 17 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
61.1%
Andrew Peasley pass incomplete to Deven ThompkinsSimilar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+61
23.1%
Calvin Tyler Jr. 61 Yd Run (Connor Coles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 25FUMBLE
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:2436% → 41%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
35.9%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+26
36.6%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Micah Davis for 26 yds to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
42.6%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Micah Davis for 7 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+13
41.4%
Haaziq Daniels run for 13 yds to the UthSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 26END OF GAME
9 plays · 18 yds · 2:3081% → 95%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
18.9%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 3 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
17.3%
Andrew Peasley run for 6 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
18.0%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
16.6%
PENALTY AF Offside (Pescaia,Kalawai'a) 5 yards from USU36 to USU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 5
OWN 41
-2
15.3%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 39Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-1
5.8%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 38Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+5
4.9%
PENALTY AF Offside (Pescaia,Kalawai'a) 5 yards from USU38 to USU43. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:54
Calvin Tyler Jr. 61 Yd Run (Connor Coles Kick)
-38.1
TD · Q3 3:18
Brandon Bowling 37 Yd pass from Andrew Peasley (Connor Coles Kick)
-20.4
TD · Q4 9:51
Deven Thompkins 72 Yd pass from Andrew Peasley (Andrew Peasley Run for Two-Point Conversion)
-18.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com