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CP

Cal Poly 10 at Fresno State 63

FRES
2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadCP aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreCP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.7FRES 95.9%Jaden Ohlsen 47 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 14 · Q2 11:13
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Q2 11:13 · Jaden Ohlsen 47 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 53Pregame prior+39.9Home team on offense+5.3Score differential+1.7Blowout margin+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Garbage-time factor+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:31: Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 24 yds for a TD CAL POLY Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Zedakiah Centers) declined (Abraham Montano KICK) — FRES win probability +1.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:41: Jake Haener run for 1 yd for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK) — FRES win probability +1.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:44: Jalen Cropper pass complete to Josh Kelly for 51 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK) — FRES win probability +1.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:25: Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 14 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK) — FRES win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:00: Spencer Brasch pass complete to Chris Coleman for 5 yds for a TD (Jaden Ohlsen KICK) — CP win probability +2.1 pts (now 3%) (top driver: CP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 6CP made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
  1. Q1 15:00FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:25CP 4th & 13 at FRES 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:50FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:42CP 4th & 5 at FRES 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:37FRES 4th & 2 at CP 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    94.2%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    93.7%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:13CP 4th & 16 at FRES 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:35CP 4th & 9 at CP 39, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:44CP 4th & 16 at CP 44, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:00CP 4th & 11 at CP 39, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00CP 4th & 5 at FRES 5, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:18CP 4th & 4 at CP 29, down 32
    Close callPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:17CP 4th & 5 at CP 25, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:49CP 4th & 3 at CP 29, down 46
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:46FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 40, up 46
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:05CP 4th & 12 at CP 8, down 46
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:46CP 4th & 3 at CP 43, down 53
    Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:37FRES 4th & 13 at CP 49, up 53
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:51CP 4th & 3 at CP 47, down 53
    Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:10FRES 4th & 5 at midfield, up 53
    Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 9 of 9CP made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 0:37FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:31FRES Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:41FRES Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:44FRES Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:25FRES Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:00CP Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:24FRES Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:23FRES Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 5:57FRES Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 14:01FRES Touchdown, up 52 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
97.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
97.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Juan Rodriguez for 4 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
97.6%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+54
97.6%
Carson King punt for 54 yds , Giancarlo Woods returns for a loss of 1 yard to the CPoly 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
97.4%
Spencer Brasch pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+11
97.4%
Spencer Brasch pass complete to Michael Roth for 11 yds to the CPoly 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
97.4%
Spencer Brasch pass complete to Zedakiah Centers for a loss of 2 yards to the CPoly 26Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 12
OWN 26
+16
97.4%
Spencer Brasch pass complete to Chris Coleman for 16 yds to the CPoly 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
97.3%
Spencer Brasch run for 7 yds to the CPoly 49Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 3
OWN 49
-2
97.3%
Lepi Lataimua run for a loss of 2 yards to the CPoly 47 Lepi Lataimua fumbled, recovered by CPoly Lepi LataimuaSimilar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+8
97.3%
Spencer Brasch pass complete to Zedakiah Centers for 8 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
97.3%
Shakobe Harper run for no gain to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-3
97.3%
Spencer Brasch sacked by Kevin Atkins for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 13
OPP 48
0
97.4%
Spencer Brasch pass incomplete to Zedakiah CentersSimilar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 13
OPP 48
0
97.4%
Chris Bartolic punt for 43 yds, downed at the FrsSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
96.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 4Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 11
OWN 4
+5
96.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 5 yds to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 6
OWN 9
+8
96.6%
Jake Haener run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
96.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
96.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
96.6%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
96.6%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:50
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
96.6%
Carson King punt for 29 yds, downed at the CPoly 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 4MISSED FG
5 plays · 38 yds · 1:514% → 5%
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+33
95.8%
Spencer Brasch pass complete to Chris Coleman for 33 yds to the FrsSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
95.7%
Kahliq Paulette run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
95.7%
Spencer Brasch pass incomplete to Lepi LataimuaSimilar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+2
95.8%
Lepi Lataimua run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q1 3:42
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+38
95.5%
Jaden Ohlsen 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:0596% → 96%
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
95.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 9 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+23
95.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Juan Rodriguez for 23 yds to the CPoly 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
95.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 13 yds to the CPoly 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+30
95.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 30 yds to the CPoly 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
95.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the CPoly 1Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
95.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 1 yard to the CPoly 2Similar
Q1 3:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
95.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the CPoly 2Similar
Q1 0:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.8%
Jake Haener run for 2 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 6INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:304% → 5%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
95.7%
Spencer Brasch pass complete to Giancarlo Woods for 14 yds to the CPoly 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
95.6%
Shakobe Harper run for 2 yds to the CPoly 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
95.5%
Spencer Brasch pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 38
-22
95.5%
Spencer Brasch pass intercepted Levelle Bailey return for 22 yds to the CPoly 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7TD
1 play · 24 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
96.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 24 yds for a TD CAL POLY Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Zedakiah Centers) declined (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 8FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 3:183% → 4%
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
96.6%
Spencer Brasch run for 11 yds to the CPoly 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
96.5%
Spencer Brasch pass complete to Michael Roth for 5 yds to the CPoly 41Similar
Q2 14:31
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
96.4%
Spencer Brasch pass incomplete to Evan BurkhartSimilar
Q2 14:31
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+35
96.5%
Spencer Brasch pass complete to Giancarlo Woods for 35 yds to the FrsSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
96.3%
Lepi Lataimua run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q2 14:31
2ND & 12
OPP 26
-5
96.3%
Spencer Brasch sacked by Leonard Payne Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q2 14:31
3RD & 17
OPP 31
+1
96.6%
Spencer Brasch run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q2 11:13
4TH & 16
OPP 30
+47
95.9%
Jaden Ohlsen 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 1:2696% → 97%
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+62
95.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 62 yds to the CPoly 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
95.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the CPoly 4Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
95.9%
Zane Pope run for 3 yds to the CPoly 1Similar
Q2 9:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.1%
Jake Haener run for 1 yd for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
96.9%
BRASCH, Spencer pass incomplete to CENTERS, Zedakh, PENALTY FS pass interference (GATES, Elijah) 15 yards to the CP38, 1ST DOWN CP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
96.8%
Spencer Brasch pass incomplete to Giancarlo Woods, broken up by Wylan FreeSimilar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-7
96.8%
Spencer Brasch sacked by Kevin Atkins for a loss of 7 yards to the CPoly 31Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 17
OWN 31
+8
97.0%
Spencer Brasch pass complete to Lepi Lataimua for 8 yds to the CPoly 39Similar
Q2 9:35
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
97.0%
Chris Bartolic punt for 12 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11TD
1 play · 51 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
98.1%
Jalen Cropper pass complete to Josh Kelly for 51 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.1%
Kahliq Paulette run for 4 yds to the CPoly 29Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
97.0%
Spencer Brasch pass complete to Zedakiah Centers for 5 yds to the CPoly 34Similar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+15
97.0%
PAULETTE,Kahliq rush for loss of 6 yards to the CP28 (JONES, Kwami), PENALTY FS personal foul (JONES, Kwami) 15 yards to the CP49, 1ST DOWN CP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-4
96.8%
Spencer Brasch pass complete to Chris Coleman for 9 yds to the FRESNOST 42 CAL POLY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Chris Coleman) to the CPoly 45Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+4
97.0%
Spencer Brasch pass complete to Michael Briscoe for 4 yds to the CPoly 49Similar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 11
OWN 49
0
97.0%
Spencer Brasch pass incomplete to Michael RothSimilar
Q2 7:44
4TH & 11
OWN 49
-5
97.1%
CAL POLY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CPoly 44Similar
Q2 7:44
4TH & 16
OWN 44
0
97.0%
Chris Bartolic punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 15 , Ronnie Rivers returns for no gain to the FrsSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 2:5699% → 100%
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
98.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 15 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+21
98.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 21 yds to the CPoly 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
98.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the CPoly 47Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+9
98.6%
Jalen Cropper run for 9 yds to the CPoly 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+21
98.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 21 yds to the CPoly 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
98.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the CPoly 14Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
99.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 14 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 1:191% → 0%
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
99.5%
Spencer Brasch run for 8 yds to the CPoly 36Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+4
99.5%
Shakobe Harper run for 4 yds to the CPoly 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.5%
Spencer Brasch pass incomplete to Michael Roth, broken up by Levelle BaileySimilar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-1
99.5%
Spencer Brasch run for a loss of 1 yard to the CPoly 39Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 11
OWN 39
0
99.6%
Spencer Brasch run for no gain to the CPoly 39Similar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
99.6%
Michael Roth punt for 51 yds , Ronnie Rivers returns for no gain to the FrsSt 5 Ronnie Rivers fumbled, recovered by CPoly Micah PasionSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 15TD
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:461% → 3%
Q2 0:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.5%
Spencer Brasch pass incomplete to Quentin HarrisonSimilar
Q2 0:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.5%
Spencer Brasch pass incomplete to Quentin Harrison, broken up by Elijah GatesSimilar
Q2 0:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.5%
Spencer Brasch run for no gain to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
96.9%
Spencer Brasch pass complete to Chris Coleman for 5 yds for a TD (Jaden Ohlsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 16FUMBLE
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.7%
Shakobe Harper run for 3 yds to the CPoly 28Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
98.6%
Spencer Brasch pass complete to Xavier Moore for 6 yds to the CPoly 34Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-2
98.6%
Spencer Brasch run for a loss of 2 yards to the CPoly 33 Spencer Brasch fumbled, forced by Evan Williams, recovered by FrsSt Evan WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17TD
6 plays · 33 yds · 2:3399% → 100%
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
99.0%
HAENER, Jake pass complete to RIVERS, Ronnie for no gain to the CP33, out-of-bounds (SHOTWELL, Matt), PENALTY FS holding (SCHMIDT, Bula) 10 yards to the CP43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:57
1ST & 20
OPP 43
+13
99.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 13 yds to the CPoly 30Similar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+10
99.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 10 yds to the CPoly 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
99.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 11 yds to the CPoly 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
99.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the CPoly 6Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
99.6%
Spencer Brasch pass incomplete to Xavier MooreSimilar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+6
99.6%
Spencer Brasch pass complete to Zedakiah Centers for 6 yds to the CPoly 29Similar
Q3 11:18
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
99.6%
Spencer Brasch pass incomplete to Quentin Harrison, broken up by Levelle BaileySimilar
Q3 11:18
4TH & 4
OWN 29
+1
99.6%
Michael Roth punt for 43 yds , Ronnie Rivers returns for 1 yd to the FrsSt 30 FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the FrsSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19TD
3 plays · 81 yds · 0:54100% → 100%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+19
99.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 19 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.7%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Keric Wheatfall, broken up by Dylan WyattSimilar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+62
99.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 62 yds for a TD CAL POLY Penalty, Defensive offside (Zedakiah Centers) declined (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.8%
Chuby Dunu run for 5 yds to the CPoly 25Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
99.8%
Spencer Brasch run for 2 yds to the CPoly 27Similar
Q3 9:17
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-2
99.7%
Chuby Dunu run for a loss of 2 yards to the CPoly 25Similar
Q3 9:17
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Chris Bartolic punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Zane Pope at the FrsSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:33100% → 100%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 5 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Zane PopeSimilar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+5
99.8%
CAL POLY Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
99.8%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+53
99.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 53 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
99.9%
Kahliq Paulette pass complete to Giancarlo Woods for 9 yds to the CPoly 31Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 1
OWN 31
-2
99.9%
Kahliq Paulette run for a loss of 2 yards to the CPoly 29Similar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Spencer Brasch pass incomplete to Evan BurkhartSimilar
Q3 5:49
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Chris Bartolic punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23PUNT
11 plays · 14 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
99.8%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+3
99.8%
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Zane Pope for 3 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+5
99.8%
HENDERSON, J pass incomplete to JONES, Ty, PENALTY CP offside defense (NDOH, Emeka) 5 yards to the FS29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 7
OWN 29
-4
99.8%
Jaylen Henderson run for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 11
OWN 25
-5
99.8%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 16
OWN 20
+16
99.8%
Jaylen Henderson run for 16 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.8%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
99.9%
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Erik Brooks for 7 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Jaylen Henderson pass incomplete FRESNO ST Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 4:46
4TH & 1
OWN 45
-5
99.8%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q3 4:46
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Carson King punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Giancarlo Woods at the CPoly 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
99.9%
Kahliq Paulette run for a loss of 2 yards to the CPoly 8Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 12
OWN 8
0
99.9%
Kahliq Paulette pass incomplete to Lepi LataimuaSimilar
Q3 2:05
3RD & 12
OWN 8
0
99.9%
Kahliq Paulette pass incomplete to Xavier MooreSimilar
Q3 2:05
4TH & 12
OWN 8
+9
99.9%
Chris Bartolic punt for 41 yds , Zane Pope returns for 9 yds to the CPoly 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 25TD
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:08100% → 100%
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
99.9%
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Ty Jones for 15 yds to the CPoly 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
99.9%
Jordan Wilmore run for 2 yds to the CPoly 23Similar
Q3 0:06
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+7
99.9%
Jaylen Henderson run for 7 yds to the CPoly 16Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+7
99.9%
Jaylen Henderson run for 7 yds to the CPoly 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
99.9%
Jordan Wilmore run for a loss of 1 yard to the CPoly 10Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.9%
Jordan Wilmore run for 10 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:070% → 0%
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
Chuby Dunu run for 3 yds to the CPoly 28Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
100.0%
Spencer Brasch pass complete to Michael Briscoe for 8 yds to the CPoly 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
100.0%
Spencer Brasch pass complete to Evan Burkhart for 4 yds to the CPoly 40Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+3
100.0%
Chuby Dunu run for 3 yds to the CPoly 43Similar
Q4 13:53
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
100.0%
Spencer Brasch pass incomplete to Michael RothSimilar
Q4 11:46
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
100.0%
Chris Bartolic punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
99.9%
Jordan Wilmore run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+14
99.9%
Jordan Wilmore run for 14 yds to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
99.9%
Jaylen Henderson run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+19
99.9%
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Emoryie Edwards for 19 yds to the CPoly 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-8
99.9%
Jaylen Henderson sacked by Zach Hernandez for a loss of 8 yards to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 18
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Jaylen Henderson pass incomplete to Emoryie EdwardsSimilar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 18
OWN 46
+5
99.9%
Jaylen Henderson run for 5 yds to the CPoly 49Similar
Q4 11:37
4TH & 13
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Carson King punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CPoly 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 43 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
100.0%
Shakobe Harper run for 1 yd to the CPoly 5Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 9
OWN 5
-2
100.0%
Shakobe Harper run for a loss of 2 yards to the CPoly 3Similar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 11
OWN 3
+37
100.0%
Spencer Brasch pass complete to Michael Briscoe for 37 yds to the CPoly 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
100.0%
Chuby Dunu run for 4 yds to the CPoly 44Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+3
100.0%
Chuby Dunu run for 3 yds to the CPoly 47Similar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
100.0%
Kahliq Paulette pass incomplete to Michael RothSimilar
Q4 7:51
4TH & 3
OWN 47
-2
100.0%
Chris Bartolic punt for 49 yds , Erik Brooks returns for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · 48 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
100.0%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+40
100.0%
Jaylen Henderson run for 40 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
100.0%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-4
100.0%
Jaylen Henderson run for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+6
100.0%
Malik Sherrod run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:10
4TH & 5
50
0
100.0%
Matthew Goodyear punt for 24 yds, downed at the CPoly 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 30END OF GAME
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
100.0%
Chuby Dunu run for 5 yds to the CPoly 31Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+3
100.0%
Chuby Dunu run for 3 yds to the CPoly 34Similar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+3
100.0%
Chuby Dunu run for 3 yds to the CPoly 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
100.0%
Chuby Dunu run for 5 yds to the CPoly 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:00
Spencer Brasch pass complete to Chris Coleman for 5 yds for a TD (Jaden Ohlsen KICK)
-2.1
TD · Q2 14:31
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 24 yds for a TD CAL POLY Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Zedakiah Centers) declined (Abraham Montano KICK)
+1.3
TD · Q2 9:41
Jake Haener run for 1 yd for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)
+1.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com