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UND

North Dakota 24 at Utah State 48

USU
2021 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2021 · Maverik Stadium
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Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadUND aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreUND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:37 · Cade Peterson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.0+26.50−26.5−53.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 139Home team on offense−45.3Score differential−25.3Pregame prior+2.7Garbage-time factor−9.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:39: Tommy Schuster pass complete to Adam Zavalney for 12 yds for a TD, (Adam Stage KICK) — UND win probability +4.3 pts (now 37%) (top driver: UND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:21: Tyler Burian 3 Yd pass from Quincy Vaughn (Adam Stage Kick) — UND win probability +7.2 pts (now 45%) (top driver: UND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:55: L. Bonner pass,to D. Wright for 4 yds for a TD, (C. Coles KICK) — UND win probability +3.3 pts (now 64%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 10:04: Adam Stage 29 Yd Field Goal — UND win probability +7.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:52: Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 75 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK) — USU win probability +5.1 pts (now 19%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10UND made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 12:07USU 4th & 1 at USU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    66.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:26USU 4th & 10 at USU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00USU 4th & 1 at UND 16, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    48.6%−1.0
    81% to make
    Punt
    45.4%−4.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:49USU 4th & 4 at UND 9, down 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.1%−0.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    43.1%−4.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:30UND 4th & 4 at UND 46, up 20
    Close callPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.9%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:15USU 4th & 18 at UND 20, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−1.7
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    34.7%−4.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:38UND 4th & 3 at UND 44, up 20
    Close callPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:06USU 4th & 6 at UND 46, down 20
    Close callPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    29.7%
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:04UND 4th & 11 at USU 12, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−1.9
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    75.8%−9.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:34UND 4th & 11 at UND 37, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−2.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:34USU 4th & 2 at UND 22, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    14.5%−1.5
    72% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−11.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:10USU 4th & 2 at UND 3, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.3%
    49% to convert
    Field goal
    9.0%−2.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    -1.2%−12.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:13UND 4th & 10 at UND 43, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:44USU 4th & 2 at UND 2, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    5.0%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−4.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:37UND 4th & 4 at UND 31, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:31UND 4th & 10 at UND 35, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:42USU 4th & 2 at USU 29, down 20
    Close callPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UND made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:07UND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:46USU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:39UND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:21UND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNDDrive 1TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 2:4531% → 33%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+18
69.1%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Brock Boltmann for 18 yds to the NDKTA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
69.1%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Bo Belquist for 8 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+7
69.1%
Luke Skokna run for 7 yds to the UthSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
69.1%
Tommy Schuster pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
69.1%
Otis Weah run for no gain to the UthSt 38Similar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+25
69.1%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Bo Belquist for 25 yds to the UthSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
67.5%
Brock Boltmann pass complete to Bo Belquist for 13 yds for a TD, (Adam Stage KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 2:2168% → 69%
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
67.8%
TYLER JR., Calvin rush up the middle for a gain of 11 yards to the USU36 (NELSON, Caleb). PENALTY USU Holding enforced 10 yards from the USU25 to the USU15 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+6
67.8%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 6 yds to the UthSt 21Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+2
67.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 2 yds to the UthSt 23Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+11
67.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 11 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q1 12:07
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+9
67.7%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 9 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
68.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 3 yds to the UthSt 46Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
68.0%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+54
68.6%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 54 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 3TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:0732% → 37%
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
68.4%
Otis Weah run for 2 yds to the NDKTA 27Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+32
68.3%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Luke Skokna for 32 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
67.9%
Tommy Schuster pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+8
67.9%
Otis Weah run for 8 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+3
67.9%
Otis Weah run for 3 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
67.8%
SKOKNA, Luke pass to the right incomplete intended for PRESTON, Marcus thrown to the USU0. PENALTY USU Pass Interference on JACKSON, Zahodri enforced 15 yards from the USU30 to the USU15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
67.7%
NORTH DAKOTA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 20Similar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+6
67.8%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Marcus Preston for 6 yds to the UthSt 14Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+2
67.7%
Otis Weah run for 2 yds to the UthSt 12Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+12
63.4%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Adam Zavalney for 12 yds for a TD, (Adam Stage KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1364% → 63%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.4%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
64.4%
Logan Bonner run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 24Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+1
64.0%
Logan Bonner run for 1 yd to the UthSt 25Similar
Q1 4:26
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+34
63.1%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 39 yds UTAH ST Penalty, Illegal Shift (Zahodri Jackson) to the NDKTA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 5TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 3:0537% → 45%
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
62.7%
Otis Weah run for 16 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+26
62.5%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Garett Maag for 26 yds to the UthSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-3
62.3%
Otis Weah run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 20Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 13
OPP 20
+3
62.4%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Adam Zavalney for 3 yds to the UthSt 17Similar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+14
62.7%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Garett Maag for 14 yds to the UthSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
55.4%
Tyler Burian 3 Yd pass from Quincy Vaughn (Adam Stage Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6FG
12 plays · 66 yds · 3:3257% → 48%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
56.8%
Elelyon Noa run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 24Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+13
56.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 13 yds to the UthSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
57.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 20 yds to the NDKTA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
58.0%
Elelyon Noa run for 18 yds to the NDKTA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
58.4%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-1
57.2%
Elelyon Noa run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDKTA 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+10
50.2%
Logan Bonner run for 10 yds to the NDKTA 16Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+1
50.6%
Elelyon Noa run for 1 yd to the NDKTA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
50.9%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+5
50.9%
Elelyon Noa run for 5 yds to the NDKTA 10Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+1
50.6%
Logan Bonner run for 1 yd to the NDKTA 9Similar
Q2 12:49
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+26
48.3%
Connor Coles 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 3:1959% → 65%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.8%
Otis Weah run for no gain to the NDKTA 25Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
40.8%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Garett Maag for 15 yds to the NDKTA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
40.4%
Otis Weah run for 8 yds to the NDKTA 48Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 2
OWN 48
-3
39.9%
Otis Weah run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDKTA 45Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+1
34.9%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Brock Boltmann for 1 yd to the NDKTA 46Similar
Q2 9:30
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
35.5%
Cade Peterson punt for 27 yds, downed at the UthSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 2:1541% → 39%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
40.9%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+8
40.7%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 8 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+7
41.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Justin McGriff for 7 yds to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
42.4%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the NDKTA 44 for a 1ST down NORTH DAKOTA Penalty, Personal Foul (Ty Shannon) to the NDKTA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
42.7%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the NDKTA 39Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+27
42.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 27 yds to the NDKTA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
43.2%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
42.2%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
41.4%
Logan Bonner sacked by Quinton Urwiler for 0 yards to the NDKTA 20Similar
Q2 7:15
4TH & 18
OPP 20
+37
39.4%
Connor Coles 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:3768% → 71%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
32.4%
Otis Weah run for 12 yds to the NDKTA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
32.0%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Brock Boltmann for 8 yds to the NDKTA 45Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 2
OWN 45
0
31.5%
Otis Weah run for no gain to the NDKTA 45Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 2
OWN 45
-1
32.2%
Otis Weah run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDKTA 44Similar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
29.3%
Cade Peterson punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 2:4334% → 36%
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
34.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 15 yds to the UthSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+24
34.8%
John Gentry run for 24 yds to the NDKTA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
36.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 18 yds to the NDKTA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
37.4%
Logan Bonner run for a loss of 5 yards to the NDKTA 30Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 15
OPP 30
0
36.7%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 15
OPP 30
+12
35.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 12 yds to the NDKTA 18Similar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 3
OPP 18
0
36.7%
BONNER, Logan pass to the left incomplete intended for THOMPKINS, Deven thrown to the UND0. PENALTY UND Pass Interference on CANADY, Jordan enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards from the UND18 to the UND4 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
38.9%
Logan Bonner run for no gain to the NDKTA 4Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
35.6%
L. Bonner pass,to D. Wright for 4 yds for a TD, (C. Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 11INT
3 plays · 23 yds · 0:4778% → 79%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
22.3%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Luke Skokna for 5 yds to the NDKTA 48Similar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
23.1%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Garett Maag for 18 yds to the NDKTA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
20.8%
Tommy Schuster pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5632% → 30%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
50
0
31.6%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
50
+4
31.5%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Savon Scarver for 4 yds to the NDKTA 46Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
30.3%
Andrew Peasley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
29.9%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 31 yds, downed at the NDKTA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.0%
UTAH ST Penalty, Chop Block ( Yards) to the UthSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:1928% → 28%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
27.7%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for no gain to the UthSt 13Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+8
27.6%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 8 yds to the UthSt 21Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+5
27.9%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 5 yds to the UthSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
28.3%
Logan Bonner pass intercepted return for no gain to the UthSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 15FG
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:3781% → 86%
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
19.5%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Luke Skokna for 8 yds to the UthSt 21Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 2
OPP 21
0
19.5%
Otis Weah run for no gain to the UthSt 21Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 2
OPP 21
0
20.2%
SCHUSTER, Tommy pass to the right incomplete intended for BELQUIST, Bo thrown to the USU10. PENALTY USU Pass Interference on TATUM, Dominic enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the USU21 to the USU12 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-3
19.5%
Otis Weah run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 14Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 13
OPP 14
0
19.9%
Tommy Schuster sacked by Jaylin Bannerman for 0 yards to the UthSt 15Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 14
OPP 15
+8
20.6%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Garett Maag for 8 yds to the UthSt 7Similar
Q3 13:41
4TH & 6
OPP 7
-5
21.6%
NORTH DAKOTA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 12Similar
Q3 10:04
4TH & 11
OPP 12
+29
14.2%
Adam Stage 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
19.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 75 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:1385% → 89%
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
14.9%
NORTH DAKOTA Penalty, False Start (Donny Ventrelli) to the NDKTA 22Similar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+14
15.1%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Adam Zavalney for 14 yds to the NDKTA 36Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+2
13.3%
Otis Weah run for 2 yds to the NDKTA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
13.0%
SCHUSTER, Tommy pass to the right complete for 1 yard to SKOKNA, Luke caught at the UND39 and advanced to the UND39 (RICE, Justin). PENALTY UND Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on LAVELL, Colin enforced 5 yards from the UND38 to the UND33 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 15
OWN 33
-1
14.0%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Bo Belquist for a loss of 1 yard to the NDKTA 32Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 16
OWN 32
0
14.0%
Tommy Schuster pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 16
OWN 32
+5
14.4%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Luke Skokna for 5 yds to the NDKTA 37Similar
Q3 6:34
4TH & 11
OWN 37
+19
11.1%
Cade Peterson punt for 41 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 19 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18DOWNS
11 plays · 56 yds · 4:2415% → 11%
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
15.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Justin McGriff for 16 yds to the NDKTA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
15.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 8 yds to the NDKTA 35Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+5
17.4%
John Gentry run for 5 yds to the NDKTA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
17.2%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
16.9%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 4 yds to the NDKTA 26Similar
Q3 6:34
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+4
16.5%
Elelyon Noa run for 4 yds to the NDKTA 22Similar
Q3 6:34
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+11
16.4%
Elelyon Noa run for 11 yds to the NDKTA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
17.3%
Elelyon Noa run for 3 yds to the NDKTA 8Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+6
17.3%
Elelyon Noa run for 6 yds to the NDKTA 2Similar
Q3 6:34
3RD & 1
OPP 2
-1
19.5%
Elelyon Noa run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDKTA 3Similar
Q3 2:10
4TH & 2
OPP 3
0
11.4%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:5793% → 95%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
6.8%
Otis Weah run for 4 yds to the NDKTA 7Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+9
6.9%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Adam Zavalney for 9 yds to the NDKTA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+27
6.3%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Adam Zavalney for 27 yds to the NDKTA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
4.9%
Luke Skokna run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDKTA 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 40
0
5.0%
Tommy Schuster pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 40
+3
5.1%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Luke Skokna for 3 yds to the NDKTA 43Similar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
5.3%
Cade Peterson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20DOWNS
10 plays · 81 yds · 4:296% → 5%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
5.7%
Logan Bonner run for 4 yds to the UthSt 23Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 6
OWN 23
0
5.7%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+11
5.6%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 11 yds to the UthSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
5.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 1 yd to the UthSt 35Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+45
5.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 45 yds to the NDKTA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
6.8%
Logan Bonner run for 11 yds to the NDKTA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
6.8%
Logan Bonner run for 1 yd to the NDKTA 8Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
6.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 3 yds to the NDKTA 5Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
4.6%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 3 yds to the NDKTA 2Similar
Q4 9:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
5.0%
Calvin Tyler Jr. 2 Yd Run (Connor Coles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0197% → 97%
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.0%
Tommy Schuster pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
3.1%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Brock Boltmann for 6 yds to the NDKTA 31Similar
Q4 9:38
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
3.1%
Tommy Schuster pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:37
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
2.7%
Cade Peterson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 1:313% → 3%
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
3.0%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+6
3.0%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 6 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q4 8:37
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+19
3.2%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 19 yds to the NDKTA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
3.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 41 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2998% → 98%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
2.3%
Tommy Schuster pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
2.4%
Tommy Schuster pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
2.5%
Tommy Schuster pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:31
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
2.0%
Cade Peterson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:492% → 2%
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
2.2%
Andrew Peasley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-2
2.1%
John Gentry run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 19Similar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 12
OWN 19
+10
1.4%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Savon Scarver for 10 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q4 4:42
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
1.5%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 25INT
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:1699% → 99%
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
1.5%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Luke Skokna for 7 yds to the NDKTA 26Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+17
1.5%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Marcus Preston for 17 yds to the NDKTA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
1.4%
Tommy Schuster pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
1.4%
Tommy Schuster pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+19
1.4%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Jack Wright for 19 yds to the UthSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
1.3%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Luke Skokna for 14 yds to the UthSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
1.3%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Bo Belquist for 6 yds to the UthSt 18Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+12
1.3%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Max Gunderson for 12 yds to the UthSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
1.3%
Tommy Schuster pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
1.0%
Tommy Schuster pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 26TD
1 play · 59 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
1.2%
Andrew Peasley run for 59 yds for a TD (Connor Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
4 plays · 29 yds · 2:1499% → 99%
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
1.1%
Austin Clemetson run for 4 yds to the NDKTA 39Similar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+13
1.0%
Quincy Vaughn pass complete to Jack Wright for 13 yds to the UthSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
0.9%
Austin Clemetson run for 7 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+5
0.6%
Austin Clemetson run for 5 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+99.4
FG · Q3 10:04
Adam Stage 29 Yd Field Goal
-7.3
TD · Q1 1:21
Tyler Burian 3 Yd pass from Quincy Vaughn (Adam Stage Kick)
-7.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com