Try the model
NMSU

New Mexico State 25 at New Mexico 34

UNM
2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · University Stadium (NM)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:01 · Bobby Cole run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4Play 118Pregame prior+14.8Home team on offense+4.8Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score differential+0.4Blowout margin−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:33: Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 11 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +7.0 pts (now 23%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:07: Andrew Erickson 17 Yd pass from Terry Wilson (Andrew Shelley Kick) — UNM win probability +4.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:57: Dino Maldonado pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 75 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +7.6 pts (now 22%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. FG · Q3 0:36: Andrew Shelley 24 Yd Field Goal — UNM win probability +4.5 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:01: Mannie Logan-Greene 58 Yd pass from Terry Wilson (Andrew Shelley Kick) — UNM win probability +16.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 9 of 11NMSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 12:35NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:09UNM 4th & 18 at UNM 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:42NMSU 4th & 4 at UNM 25, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.5%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    11.1%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:47NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:49UNM 4th & 5 at NMSU 31, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.1%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    87.7%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:20NMSU 4th & 3 at UNM 15, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.1%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    10.9%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:18UNM 4th & 22 at NMSU 32, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−1.0
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    85.7%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:11UNM 4th & 1 at NMSU 44, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    81.1%−1.5
    27% to make
    Punt
    81.4%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:07UNM 4th & 2 at NMSU 17, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    80.9%−0.6
    80% to make
    Punt
    77.6%−3.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:53UNM 4th & 14 at NMSU 28, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−1.2
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    76.7%−3.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:16NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 45, down 4
    Close callPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:40NMSU 4th & 10 at UNM 40, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    21.0%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:01UNM 4th & 2 at NMSU 7, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    75.7%−1.6
    91% to make
    Punt
    67.0%−10.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:25NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 14, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−1.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:59UNM 4th & 8 at UNM 42, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−1.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:28NMSU 4th & 15 at NMSU 15, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−4.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:32NMSU 4th & 9 at UNM 19, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−2.0
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    15.1%−10.9
    average punt
  18. Q3 0:36UNM 4th & 7 at NMSU 7, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    62.0%−11.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:59NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 40, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:15UNM 4th & 1 at NMSU 1, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    92.0%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    89.0%−4.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:00UNM 4th & 3 at NMSU 47, up 9
    Close callPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NMSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 14:00UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:37UNM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:33NMSU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:07UNM Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:57NMSU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:01UNM Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1TD
3 plays · 64 yds · 0:5087% → 87%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+51
86.7%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Jr. Zarak Scruggs for 51 yds to the NMxSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
86.7%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Mannie Logan-Greene for 9 yds to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+4
86.7%
Bobby Cole run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2513% → 14%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.6%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
86.6%
Jonah Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
86.6%
Juwaun Price run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q1 12:35
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
86.5%
Josh Carlson punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Mannie Logan-Greene at the NMex 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:2687% → 86%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
86.5%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Caleb Mills) to the NMex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
86.6%
Terry Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 39Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 13
OWN 39
-16
86.5%
run for a loss of 16 yards to the NMex 23 fumbled, recovered by NMex Cade BriggsSimilar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 29
OWN 23
+11
86.4%
Bobby Cole run for 11 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q1 10:09
4TH & 18
OWN 34
0
86.1%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 25 yds, downed at the NMxSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4FG
10 plays · 34 yds · 2:0814% → 15%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
86.0%
Jonah Johnson run for no gain to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+15
86.0%
JOHNSON, Jonah pass to the right incomplete intended for WARNER, Terrell thrown to the UNM42. PENALTY UNM Pass Interference on HIGHTOWER, Corey enforced 15 yards from the NMS41 to the UNM44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
85.8%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 8 yds to the NMex 36Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 2
OPP 36
0
85.8%
Jonah Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+5
85.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 5 yds to the NMex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
85.7%
JOHNSON, Jonah pass to the right complete for 17 yards to WARNER, Terrell caught at the UNM15 and advanced to the UNM14 (HIGHTOWER, Corey). PENALTY NMS Holding on WHITFORD, Thomaz enforced 10 yards from the UNM31 to the UNM41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 20
OPP 41
+16
85.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 16 yds to the NMex 25Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 4
OPP 25
0
85.7%
Jonah Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 4
OPP 25
0
85.8%
Jonah Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:42
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+43
85.0%
Ethan Albertson 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0585% → 87%
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.0%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
85.0%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 9 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
85.1%
Aaron Dumas run for 3 yds to the NMex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+30
85.2%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Trace Bruckler for 30 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
85.5%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+15
85.5%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Devlin Kirklin) to the NMxSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
86.7%
Connor Witthoft 15 Yd pass from Terry Wilson (Andrew Shelley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4514% → 14%
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
85.8%
Juwaun Price run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
85.8%
Jonah Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
86.0%
Jonah Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:47
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
86.1%
Josh Carlson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Mannie Logan-Greene at the NMex 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7MISSED FG
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:5886% → 86%
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
86.4%
Bobby Cole run for 7 yds to the NMex 41Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+12
86.6%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Keyonta Lanier for 12 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
86.7%
Terry Wilson sacked by Lazarus Williams for 0 yards to the NMex 44Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 19
OWN 44
+4
86.5%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Bobby Wooden for 4 yds to the NMex 48Similar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 15
OWN 48
+16
86.3%
Terry Wilson run for 16 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
86.7%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
86.7%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Luke Wysong for 5 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 5
OPP 31
0
86.5%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:49
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+49
85.9%
Andrew Shelley 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8FG
8 plays · 54 yds · 1:2914% → 15%
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
85.7%
Dino Maldonado pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:16
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+10
85.8%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 10 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+37
85.4%
Dino Maldonado run for 37 yds to the NMex 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
84.7%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to Cole Harrity for 2 yds to the NMex 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
84.7%
Dino Maldonado pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
85.2%
Dino Maldonado pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+5
85.6%
ALBERTSON, Ethan field goal attempt from 48 yards GOOD [kick was spotted at UNM38], score nullified by penalty. PENALTY UNM Offsides on MOON, Cody enforced 5 yards from the UNM20 to the UNM15. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:20
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+33
85.0%
Ethan Albertson 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9MISSED FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 4:5785% → 84%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
85.2%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 13 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
85.4%
Aaron Dumas run for 7 yds to the NMex 43Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+14
85.8%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 14 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
85.8%
Aaron Dumas run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 3
OPP 36
-6
85.8%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Chad Alexander for a loss of 6 yards to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+22
85.5%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 22 yds to the NMxSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
85.9%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Luke Wysong for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 15
OPP 25
+3
85.7%
Luke Wysong run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 12
OPP 22
-5
85.5%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, False Start (Cade Briggs) to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 17
OPP 27
-5
85.3%
ALEXANDER, Chad rush up the middle for a gain of 13 yards to the NMS14 (BOWE JR., Michael;UNION, Torren). PENALTY Before the snap, UNM Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the NMS27 to the NMS32. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 22
OPP 32
0
85.3%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:18
4TH & 22
OPP 32
+49
84.0%
Andrew Shelley 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 2:4515% → 23%
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
85.0%
Dino Maldonado pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
85.2%
Dino Maldonado pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:18
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+15
85.7%
MALDONADO, Dino pass to the right incomplete intended for DOWNS III, Robert thrown to the NMS32. PENALTY UNM Personal Foul on MOON, Cody enforced 15 yards from the NMS32 to the NMS47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
84.3%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 9 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+3
84.0%
O'Maury Samuels run for 3 yds to the NMex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
84.1%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to Juwaun Price for no gain to the NMex 41Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+3
84.2%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to Andre Bodison for 3 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q2 9:18
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+15
84.3%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Roughing the Passer on MURRAY, Langston enforced half the distance from the goal (Langston Murray) to the NMex 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
77.2%
Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 11 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11DOWNS
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:2280% → 80%
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
80.4%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Mannie Logan-Greene for 6 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
81.0%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Mannie Logan-Greene for 5 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
80.8%
Bobby Cole run for 11 yds to the NMex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
81.6%
Bobby Cole run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 7
50
0
81.8%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:16
3RD & 7
50
+6
80.5%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Damon Gentry for 6 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q2 4:11
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
80.1%
Bobby Cole run for no gain to the NMxSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
77.4%
Dino Maldonado pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13TD
5 plays · 48 yds · 1:5381% → 85%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+23
81.3%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Mannie Logan-Greene for 23 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
81.7%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
81.6%
Aaron Dumas run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+1
81.0%
Trae Hall run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+17
85.4%
Andrew Erickson 17 Yd pass from Terry Wilson (Andrew Shelley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
77.9%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 75 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15FG
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:5781% → 78%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+25
80.5%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Kyle Jarvis for 25 yds to the NMxSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-10
81.1%
WILSON JR., Terry pass to the left complete for 4 yards to WOODEN, Bobby caught at the NMS29 and advanced to the NMS20 (OJOH, Chris;BOWLES, Dalton). PENALTY UNM Illegal Block in the Back on JARVIS, Kyle enforced 10 yards from the NMS24 to the NMS34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 20
OPP 34
0
80.7%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 20
OPP 34
0
80.1%
Terry Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 20
OPP 34
+6
78.9%
Terry Wilson run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 14
OPP 28
+45
78.4%
Andrew Shelley 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:5321% → 22%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
79.1%
Juwaun Price run for 17 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
77.7%
Dino Maldonado pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
77.8%
Juwaun Price run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:4421% → 23%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
78.9%
Juwaun Price run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
78.7%
Dino Maldonado pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
79.6%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to Andre Bodison for 10 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
78.1%
Juwaun Price run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+7
78.1%
O'Maury Samuels run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
77.0%
Dino Maldonado run for no gain to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q3 12:16
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
77.3%
Josh Carlson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Mannie Logan-Greene at the NMex 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2426% → 24%
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
74.1%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the NMex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
73.4%
Dino Maldonado pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
73.5%
Dino Maldonado pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:04
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
74.3%
Dino Maldonado pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:40
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
76.0%
Josh Carlson punt for 37 yds, downed at the NMex 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19DOWNS
12 plays · 86 yds · 5:3976% → 76%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+10
76.1%
Bobby Cole run for 10 yds to the NMex 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
76.3%
Bobby Cole run for 9 yds to the NMex 22Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+4
76.6%
Luke Wysong run for 4 yds to the NMex 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
76.6%
Bobby Cole run for 7 yds to the NMex 33Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+22
77.7%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Trace Bruckler for 22 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
79.0%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Keyonta Lanier for 3 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+14
79.0%
Bobby Cole run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
79.6%
Aaron Dumas run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
79.6%
Andrew Erickson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+2
79.6%
Aaron Dumas run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+6
78.7%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Elijah Queen for 6 yds to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q3 6:01
4TH & 2
OPP 7
-4
75.6%
Bobby Cole run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3626% → 25%
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
73.6%
Dino Maldonado run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 7
OWN 14
0
73.6%
Dino Maldonado pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 7
OWN 14
-5
75.0%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (Sage Doxtater) to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 12
OWN 9
+5
75.3%
O'Maury Samuels run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q3 4:25
4TH & 7
OWN 14
0
74.8%
Josh Carlson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Mannie Logan-Greene at the NMex 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2675% → 71%
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
75.3%
Terry Wilson run for 3 yds to the NMex 43Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+4
75.9%
Aaron Dumas run for 4 yds to the NMex 47Similar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 3
OWN 47
-5
75.4%
Terry Wilson run for a loss of 5 yards to the NMex 42 fumbled, recovered by NMex Terry WilsonSimilar
Q3 2:59
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
71.3%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:3129% → 26%
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
71.4%
Juwaun Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
71.9%
Dino Maldonado pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:59
3RD & 11
OWN 19
-4
73.2%
Dino Maldonado run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q3 1:28
4TH & 15
OWN 15
+53
73.7%
Josh Carlson punt for 46 yds , Mannie Logan-Greene returns for 53 yds to the NMxSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 2:2830% → 31%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
70.4%
Juwaun Price run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+15
75.9%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Targeting on HUNT, Antonio enforced (Antonio Hunt) to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
73.0%
Dino Maldonado pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+15
73.8%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to Robert Downs III for 15 yds to the NMex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
71.1%
Dino Maldonado pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+24
71.3%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to Juwaun Price for 24 yds to the NMex 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
69.1%
Juwaun Price run for 1 yd to the NMex 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
69.1%
Dino Maldonado pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 19
0
71.5%
Dino Maldonado pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:32
4TH & 9
OPP 19
+37
68.9%
Ethan Albertson 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 24FG
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q3 0:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
73.4%
Andrew Shelley 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 25TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:3173% → 89%
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
72.8%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Garrett Bishop) to the NMex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
89.4%
Mannie Logan-Greene 58 Yd pass from Terry Wilson (Andrew Shelley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:0211% → 11%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
88.6%
O'Maury Samuels run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
87.4%
O'Maury Samuels run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
87.6%
Dino Maldonado pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-10
87.8%
MALDONADO, Dino pass to the left incomplete dropped by WYATT, Jared thrown to the NMS45. PENALTY NMS Holding on JOHNSON, Eli enforced 10 yards from the NMS36 to the NMS26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 20
OWN 26
0
88.9%
Dino Maldonado pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 20
OWN 26
+14
89.5%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 14 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q4 9:59
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
89.0%
Josh Carlson punt for 34 yds, downed at the NMex 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 27DOWNS
14 plays · 76 yds · 6:4489% → 94%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
88.8%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, False Start (Kyle Jarvis) to the NMex 21Similar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+4
88.5%
Bobby Cole run for 4 yds to the NMex 25Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+9
88.5%
Bobby Cole run for 9 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+10
88.4%
Aaron Dumas run for 10 yds to the NMex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
89.7%
Aaron Dumas run for 2 yds to the NMex 46Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+14
89.6%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Luke Wysong for 14 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
89.9%
Bobby Cole run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+9
90.0%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Mannie Logan-Greene for 9 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
90.0%
Bobby Cole run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+4
90.0%
Chad Alexander run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
90.0%
Chad Alexander run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
90.0%
Bobby Cole run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 2Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
89.4%
Bobby Cole run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q4 3:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
93.6%
Bobby Cole run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 28INT
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:598% → 6%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+8
92.3%
Juwaun Price run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 2
OWN 11
+2
92.3%
Juwaun Price run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
94.0%
Dino Maldonado pass intercepted Jerrick Reed II return for no gain to the NMex 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:1195% → 95%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
94.7%
COLE, Bobby rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the UNM47 (GIACOLONE, Nick). PENALTY UNM Holding on STAPLEY, Kyle enforced 10 yards from the UNM46 to the UNM36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 20
OWN 36
+1
94.2%
Luke Wysong run for 1 yd to the NMex 37Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 19
OWN 37
+2
95.0%
Bobby Cole run for 2 yds to the NMex 39Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 17
OWN 39
+14
94.9%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Chad Alexander for 14 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 3
OPP 47
+2
95.3%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 38 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for 2 yds to the NMxSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 30END OF GAME
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:006% → 6%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
94.3%
Dino Maldonado pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+7
94.3%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to O'Maury Samuels for 7 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+6
94.6%
Dino Maldonado run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
93.9%
Dino Maldonado pass complete to Juwaun Price for 8 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:01
Mannie Logan-Greene 58 Yd pass from Terry Wilson (Andrew Shelley Kick)
+16.6
TD · Q2 1:57
Dino Maldonado pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 75 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)
-7.6
TD · Q2 6:33
Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 11 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)
-7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com