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NMSU

New Mexico State 10 at San Diego State 28

SDSU
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2021 · Qualcomm Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:10 · Josh Carlson punts 38 yards to SDSU35, Jordan Byrd returns to SDSU38 for 3 yards
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 79Pregame prior+32.6Home team on offense−7.6Score differential−4.8Garbage-time factor−2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 49:00: San Diego State Aztecs timeout. — SDSU win probability +22.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: 4th down).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 5:00: SDSU-Chris Martinez PENALIZED -10 yards for Holding — NMSU win probability +16.5 pts (now 21%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:00: Greg Bell rush for 23 yards for a TOUCHDOWN Matt Araiza extra point is GOOD. — SDSU win probability +10.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. TD · Q3 3:19: Jordon Brookshire rush for 18 yards for a TOUCHDOWN Matt Araiza extra point is GOOD. — SDSU win probability +11.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:50: Jonah Johnson pass intercepted by Andrew Aleki RETURNED for 25 yards for a TOUCHDOWN. Matt Araiza extra point is GOOD. — SDSU win probability +9.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9NMSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 14:30NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:01SDSU 4th & 13 at SDSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:45NMSU 4th & 3 at SDSU 13, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.7%−<0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    4.3%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:14SDSU 4th & 8 at SDSU 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:42NMSU 4th & 13 at NMSU 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:36SDSU 4th & 12 at SDSU 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:09NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:08SDSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 41, down 10
    Close callPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    81.4%−0.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.4%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:10NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 27, up 10
    Close callPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:16SDSU 4th & 28 at SDSU 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%−1.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:00NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.0%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:01NMSU 4th & 14 at SDSU 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−2.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:32SDSU 4th & 14 at SDSU 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−4.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:06NMSU 4th & 15 at NMSU 20, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:41SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 45, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:57NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 22, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:11SDSU 4th & 12 at SDSU 9, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:22NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 17, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:31SDSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 38, up 18
    Close callPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NMSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 10:59NMSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 14:00SDSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:19SDSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:50SDSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:40SDSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:304% → 5%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.6%
Jonah Johnson incomplete pass intended for Cole HarritySimilar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
95.6%
Jonah Johnson pass to Terrell Warner to NMSt32 for 7 yardsSimilar
Q1 14:37
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
95.6%
Jonah Johnson incomplete pass intended for Dominic GicintoSimilar
Q1 14:30
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
95.5%
Josh Carlson punts 45 yards to SDSU23, Out of BoundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:0796% → 95%
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
95.5%
Greg Bell rush to SDSU27 for 4 yardsSimilar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+5
95.4%
Jordon Brookshire pass to Jesse Matthews to SDSU32 for 5 yardsSimilar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+2
95.3%
Greg Bell rush to SDSU34 for 2 yardsSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
95.2%
Greg Bell rush to SDSU41 for 7 yardsSimilar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 3
OWN 41
0
95.2%
Jordon Brookshire incomplete pass intended for Ethan DedeauxSimilar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 3
OWN 41
-10
95.1%
Jordon Brookshire sacked at SDSU31 for -10 yardsSimilar
Q1 12:01
4TH & 13
OWN 31
+6
95.0%
Matt Araiza punts 63 yards to NMSt6, Robert Downs III returns to NMSt12 for 6 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3FG GOOD
10 plays · 88 yds · 4:055% → 6%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+25
95.0%
Jonah Johnson pass to Dominic Gicinto to NMSt37 for 25 yardsSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
94.9%
Jonah Johnson pass to Dominic Gicinto to NMSt43 for 6 yardsSimilar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+5
94.7%
Jonah Johnson pass to Dominic Gicinto to NMSt48 for 5 yardsSimilar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+19
94.6%
Jonah Johnson pass to Cole Harrity to SDSU33 for 19 yardsSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
94.4%
Jonah Johnson pass to Cole Harrity to SDSU27 for 6 yardsSimilar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+7
94.3%
Jonah Johnson pass to Terrell Warner to SDSU20 for 7 yardsSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
94.2%
O'Maury Samuels rush to SDSU21 for -1 yardsSimilar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+8
94.0%
Jonah Johnson pass to Jared Wyatt to SDSU13 for 8 yardsSimilar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 3
OPP 13
0
93.9%
Jonah Johnson incomplete pass intended for Robert Downs IIISimilar
Q1 7:45
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+13
93.8%
Ethan Albertson 31 yard field goal is GOOD.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:1294% → 93%
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
93.8%
Greg Bell rush to SDSU36 for 11 yardsSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
93.8%
Jordon Brookshire incomplete pass intended for Daniel BellingerSimilar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
93.7%
Greg Bell rush to SDSU38 for 2 yardsSimilar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
93.4%
Jordon Brookshire incomplete pass intended for Jesse MatthewsSimilar
Q1 6:14
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
93.3%
Matt Araiza punts 55 yards to NMSt7, Out of BoundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 3:247% → 8%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
93.5%
Juwaun Price rush to NMSt15 for 8 yardsSimilar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 2
OWN 15
0
93.2%
Juwaun Price rush to NMSt15 for no gainSimilar
Q1 4:58
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+4
93.2%
Jonah Johnson rush to NMSt19 for 4 yardsSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
92.9%
NMSt-Gabriel Preciado PENALIZED -9 yards for HoldingSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 19
OWN 10
-2
92.8%
Jonah Johnson sacked at NMSt8 for -2 yardsSimilar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 15
OWN 14
+2
92.6%
Juwaun Price rush to NMSt16 for 2 yardsSimilar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 21
OWN 8
+6
92.7%
Jonah Johnson pass to O'Maury Samuels to NMSt14 for 6 yardsSimilar
Q1 2:42
4TH & 13
OWN 16
0
92.5%
Josh Carlson punts 41 yards to SDSU43, Out of BoundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6FUMBLE
8 plays · 42 yds · 2:2892% → 92%
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
92.4%
Jordon Brookshire incomplete pass intended for Tyrell ShaversSimilar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
92.2%
Greg Bell rush to SDSU47 for 4 yardsSimilar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+10
92.1%
Jordon Brookshire pass to Daniel Bellinger to NMSt43 for 10 yardsSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
92.1%
Greg Bell rush to NMSt41 for 2 yardsSimilar
Q1 39:00
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+6
95.6%
Greg Bell rush to NMSt35 for 6 yardsSimilar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+20
95.5%
Greg Bell rush to NMSt15 for 20 yardsSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
91.8%
Greg Bell rush to NMSt10 for 5 yards. Greg Bell FUMBLES (FF-Donavan King), recovered at NMSt10 by Torren Union RETURNED for 0 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7PASSING TD
13 plays · 90 yds · 3:489% → 15%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+12
90.9%
Jonah Johnson pass to Dominic Gicinto to NMSt22 for 12 yardsSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
90.6%
Jonah Johnson pass to Terrell Warner to NMSt27 for 5 yardsSimilar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
90.3%
Jonah Johnson incomplete passSimilar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+14
90.5%
Jonah Johnson pass to Robert Downs III to NMSt41 for 14 yardsSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
89.7%
Jonah Johnson pass to Terrell Warner to SDSU47 for 12 yardsSimilar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+23
89.3%
O'Maury Samuels rush to SDSU24 for 23 yardsSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
88.7%
Jonah Johnson pass to Cole Harrity to SDSU19 for 5 yardsSimilar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 5
OPP 19
-1
88.6%
O'Maury Samuels rush to SDSU20 for -1 yardsSimilar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+7
88.7%
Jonah Johnson pass to Jared Wyatt to SDSU13 for 7 yardsSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
88.2%
Jonah Johnson incomplete pass intended for Terrell WarnerSimilar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+5
88.1%
Jonah Johnson pass to Jared Wyatt to SDSU8 for 5 yardsSimilar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+8
85.5%
Jonah Johnson pass to Dominic Gicinto for 8 yards for a TOUCHDOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 2:0685% → 82%
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
85.3%
Jordon Brookshire rush to SDSU34 for 9 yardsSimilar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
85.4%
Chance Bell rush to SDSU34 for no gainSimilar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
84.5%
Chance Bell rush to SDSU36 for 2 yardsSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
84.2%
Chance Bell rush to SDSU34 for -2 yardsSimilar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 12
OWN 34
0
83.4%
Jordon Brookshire incomplete pass intended for Tyrell ShaversSimilar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 12
OWN 34
0
82.8%
Jordon Brookshire incomplete pass intended for Kobe SmithSimilar
Q2 8:36
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
82.4%
Matt Araiza punts 46 yards to NMSt20, Out of BoundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1616% → 18%
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
84.0%
Jonah Johnson pass to Dominic Gicinto to NMSt24 for 5 yardsSimilar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 5
OWN 24
-2
82.0%
Juwaun Price rush to NMSt22 for -2 yardsSimilar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 7
OWN 22
0
82.1%
Jonah Johnson incomplete passSimilar
Q2 7:09
4TH & 7
OWN 22
0
82.3%
Josh Carlson punts 36 yards to SDSU42, Jordan Byrd Fair CatchSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:4882% → 79%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
81.8%
Greg Bell rush to NMSt45 for 13 yardsSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
81.7%
Jesse Matthews rush to NMSt39 for 6 yardsSimilar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+3
81.3%
Greg Bell rush to NMSt36 for 3 yardsSimilar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 1
OPP 36
-5
80.7%
SDSU-Daniel Bellinger PENALIZED -5 yards for False StartSimilar
Q2 5:16
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
80.5%
Jordon Brookshire incomplete pass intended for Jesse MatthewsSimilar
Q2 5:08
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
79.2%
Matt Araiza punts 41 yards to NMSt0, TOUCHBACK.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:4721% → 21%
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
79.1%
Jonah Johnson incomplete pass intended for Robert Downs IIISimilar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
79.1%
Jonah Johnson pass to Robert Downs III to NMSt27 for 7 yardsSimilar
Q2 4:16
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
78.2%
Jonah Johnson incomplete pass intended for Dominic GicintoSimilar
Q2 4:10
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+3
79.0%
Josh Carlson punts 38 yards to SDSU35, Jordan Byrd returns to SDSU38 for 3 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -17 yds · 0:4678% → 75%
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
78.4%
Jordon Brookshire incomplete pass intended for Elijah KotheSimilar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-4
78.2%
Greg Bell rush to SDSU34 for -4 yardsSimilar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 14
OWN 34
-15
76.4%
SDSU-William Dunkle PENALIZED -15 yards for Unsports. ConductSimilar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 29
OWN 19
+16
76.2%
Jordon Brookshire rush to SDSU35 for 16 yardsSimilar
Q2 3:20
4TH & 13
OWN 35
-15
75.6%
SDSU-William Dunkle PENALIZED -15 yards for Unnecessary RoughnessSimilar
Q2 3:16
4TH & 28
OWN 20
+1
75.4%
Matt Araiza punts 77 yards to NMSt3, Robert Downs III returns to NMSt4 for 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 55 yds · 0:0023% → 4%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 8
OWN 4
+8
77.3%
Jonah Johnson rush to NMSt3 for -1 yardsSimilar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 9
OWN 4
0
77.3%
Jonah Johnson incomplete pass intended for Dominic GicintoSimilar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 9
OWN 4
+42
77.3%
Jonah Johnson pass to Jared Wyatt to NMSt45 for 42 yardsSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
74.1%
Juwaun Price rush to NMSt47 for 2 yardsSimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
73.0%
Jonah Johnson incomplete pass intended for Jared WyattSimilar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+3
73.1%
Jonah Johnson pass to Dominic Gicinto to SDSU50 for 3 yardsSimilar
Q2 49:00
4TH & 5
50
0
95.6%
Josh Carlson punts 30 yards to SDSU20, Out of BoundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14END OF HALF TD
7 plays · -6 yds · 44:0096% → 79%
Q2 49:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
95.6%
Jordon Brookshire rush to SDSU21 for 1 yardSimilar
Q2 47:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
95.6%
Jordon Brookshire incomplete pass intended for Ethan DedeauxSimilar
Q2 41:00
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+10
95.6%
Kaegun Williams rush to SDSU31 for 10 yardsSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
79.1%
SDSU-Chris Martinez PENALIZED -10 yards for HoldingSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 20
OWN 21
-7
78.7%
Jordon Brookshire sacked at SDSU14 for -7 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15RUSHING TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:0072% → 83%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
71.6%
Jordon Brookshire pass to Jordan Byrd to NMSt47 for 18 yardsSimilar
Q3 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+24
72.8%
Jordon Brookshire pass to Kobe Smith to NMSt23 for 24 yardsSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
83.2%
Greg Bell rush for 23 yards for a TOUCHDOWN Matt Araiza extra point is GOOD.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16INT
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
79.0%
Jonah Johnson pass intercepted by Michael Shawcroft RETURNED from NMSt27 for 6 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17Uncategorized
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0783% → 82%
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
83.0%
SDSU-Noah Tumblin PENALIZED -15 yards for Unsports. ConductSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
82.3%
Jordon Brookshire pass intercepted by Caleb Mills RETURNED from NMSt7 for no gain.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 16 yds · 4:2721% → 25%
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
79.2%
Juwaun Price rush to NMSt11 for 4 yardsSimilar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+4
78.8%
Jonah Johnson pass to Terrell Warner to NMSt15 for 4 yardsSimilar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+4
78.7%
Jonah Johnson pass to Cole Harrity to NMSt19 for 4 yardsSimilar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
77.4%
Jonah Johnson pass to Cole Harrity to NMSt23 for 4 yardsSimilar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+4
76.7%
O'Maury Samuels rush to NMSt27 for 4 yardsSimilar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 2
OWN 27
0
76.4%
Jonah Johnson rush to NMSt27 for no gainSimilar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 2
OWN 27
0
76.3%
Josh Carlson punts 36 yards to SDSU37, Out of Bounds. Dezjhon Malone FUMBLES, ball out of bounds at SDSU35Similar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-4
72.1%
Terrell Warner rush to SDSU47 for -4 yardsSimilar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 14
OPP 47
0
72.6%
Jonah Johnson incomplete pass intended for Jared WyattSimilar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 14
OPP 47
0
73.5%
Jonah Johnson incomplete pass intended for Cole HarritySimilar
Q3 9:01
4TH & 14
OPP 47
0
74.8%
Josh Carlson punts 34 yards to SDSU13, Jordan Byrd Fair CatchSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:2175% → 70%
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
74.9%
Greg Bell rush to SDSU20 for 7 yardsSimilar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+5
75.0%
Greg Bell rush to SDSU25 for 5 yardsSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.1%
Greg Bell rush to SDSU27 for 2 yardsSimilar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-6
73.7%
Jordon Brookshire pass to BJ Busbee to SDSU21 for -6 yardsSimilar
Q3 6:42
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
71.1%
Jordon Brookshire incomplete pass intended for BJ BusbeeSimilar
Q3 6:32
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+6
70.3%
Matt Araiza punts 57 yards to NMSt22, Robert Downs III returns to NMSt28 for 6 yards. Robert Downs III FUMBLES (FF-Segun Olubi), recovered at NMSt28 by Tyler Roebuck RETURNED for 0 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20Uncategorized
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:5330% → 33%
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
70.1%
Jonah Johnson pass to Terrell Warner to NMSt37 for 9 yardsSimilar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+7
68.2%
Juwaun Price rush to NMSt44 for 7 yardsSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
67.1%
Jonah Johnson incomplete pass intended for Jared WyattSimilar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
67.5%
Jonah Johnson pass intercepted by Tayler Hawkins RETURNED from SDSU27 for no gain.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21RUSHING TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 1:5572% → 87%
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
71.6%
Greg Bell rush to SDSU28 for 1 yardSimilar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+25
70.9%
Jordon Brookshire pass to BJ Busbee to NMSt47 for 25 yardsSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
74.1%
Jordon Brookshire rush to NMSt44 for 3 yardsSimilar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
73.8%
Jordon Brookshire incomplete pass intended for BJ BusbeeSimilar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+15
73.0%
NMSt-D.J. McCullough PENALIZED 15 yards for Personal FoulSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
74.9%
Greg Bell rush to NMSt18 for 11 yardsSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
86.6%
Jordon Brookshire rush for 18 yards for a TOUCHDOWN Matt Araiza extra point is GOOD.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22INT RETURN TOUCH
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:1118% → 8%
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
82.2%
NMSt-Jalyne McFall PENALIZED -12 yards for Personal FoulSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 22
OWN 13
0
82.4%
Jonah Johnson incomplete pass intended for Terrell WarnerSimilar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+14
82.6%
SDSU-Tayler Hawkins PENALIZED 14 yards for Unsports. ConductSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-25
91.9%
Jonah Johnson pass intercepted by Andrew Aleki RETURNED for 25 yards for a TOUCHDOWN. Matt Araiza extra point is GOOD.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:008% → 5%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
92.1%
Jonah Johnson pass to Terrell Warner to NMSt40 for 15 yardsSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
91.1%
Jonah Johnson pass to Jared Wyatt to SDSU48 for 12 yardsSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
90.3%
Jonah Johnson pass to Terrell Warner to SDSU47 for 1 yardSimilar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+4
90.2%
Jonah Johnson rush to SDSU43 for 4 yardsSimilar
Q3 51:00
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
95.6%
Jonah Johnson incomplete pass intended for Terrell WarnerSimilar
Q3 43:00
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
95.4%
Josh Carlson punts 43 yards to SDSU0, TOUCHBACK.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 24RUSHING TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 35:2095% → 98%
Q3 35:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
94.5%
Greg Bell rush to SDSU25 for 5 yardsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+32
93.0%
Greg Bell rush to NMSt43 for 32 yardsSimilar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
97.9%
Jordan Byrd rush for 43 yards for a TOUCHDOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:133% → 3%
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.1%
Jonah Johnson incomplete pass intended for O'Maury SamuelsSimilar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.3%
O'Maury Samuels rush to NMSt31 for 6 yardsSimilar
Q4 13:37
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-11
97.2%
Jonah Johnson sacked at NMSt20 for -11 yardsSimilar
Q4 13:06
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
97.4%
Josh Carlson punts 36 yards to SDSU44, Jordan Byrd Fair CatchSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1098% → 98%
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
98.2%
Jordon Brookshire incomplete pass intended for Isaiah RichardsonSimilar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
98.2%
Kaegun Williams rush to SDSU44 for no gainSimilar
Q4 12:03
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+1
98.2%
Kaegun Williams rush to SDSU45 for 1 yardSimilar
Q4 11:41
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
98.0%
Matt Araiza punts 55 yards to NMSt0, TOUCHBACK.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:202% → 2%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
97.7%
Jonah Johnson pass to Terrell Warner to NMSt25 for 5 yardsSimilar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-1
97.5%
Juwaun Price rush to NMSt24 for -1 yards. Juwaun Price FUMBLES, recovered at NMSt24 by Jared Wyatt RETURNED for 0 yards.Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-2
97.7%
Jonah Johnson sacked at NMSt22 for -2 yardsSimilar
Q4 9:57
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
97.7%
Josh Carlson punts 67 yards to SDSU11, Out of BoundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:1898% → 98%
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
98.1%
Jordan Byrd rush to SDSU14 for 3 yardsSimilar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+2
98.1%
Jordan Byrd rush to SDSU16 for 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 5
OWN 16
-2
98.1%
Chance Bell rush to SDSU14 for -2 yardsSimilar
Q4 7:48
4TH & 7
OWN 14
-5
98.0%
SDSU-Kyron White PENALIZED -5 yards for False StartSimilar
Q4 7:11
4TH & 12
OWN 9
0
97.7%
Matt Araiza punts 75 yards to NMSt16, Out of BoundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:342% → 2%
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
97.8%
Jonah Johnson sacked at NMSt11 for -5 yardsSimilar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 15
OWN 11
+4
98.0%
O'Maury Samuels rush to NMSt15 for 4 yardsSimilar
Q4 5:48
3RD & 11
OWN 15
+2
98.1%
Jonah Johnson rush to NMSt24 for 9 yards. Jonah Johnson FUMBLES (FF-Segun Olubi), recovered at NMSt17 by Terrell Warner RETURNED for 0 yards.Similar
Q4 5:22
4TH & 9
OWN 17
0
98.4%
Josh Carlson punts 54 yards to SDSU29, Out of BoundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3899% → 99%
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
98.6%
Chance Bell rush to SDSU30 for 1 yardSimilar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+3
98.6%
Chance Bell rush to SDSU33 for 3 yardsSimilar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+5
98.7%
Chance Bell rush to SDSU38 for 5 yardsSimilar
Q4 3:31
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
98.7%
Matt Araiza punts 42 yards to NMSt20, Out of BoundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 31END OF 4TH QUARTER
16 plays · 49 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
98.5%
Jonah Johnson pass to Juwaun Price to NMSt26 for 6 yardsSimilar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+8
98.4%
Jonah Johnson pass to Justice Powers to NMSt34 for 8 yardsSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
98.4%
Jonah Johnson pass to Justice Powers to NMSt45 for 11 yardsSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
98.4%
Jonah Johnson incomplete pass intended for Justice PowersSimilar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+14
98.4%
Jonah Johnson pass to Terrell Warner to SDSU41 for 14 yardsSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
98.3%
Jonah Johnson incomplete pass intended for Justice PowersSimilar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
98.3%
Jonah Johnson incomplete pass intended for Jared WyattSimilar
Q4 55:00
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+11
95.7%
Jonah Johnson rush to SDSU30 for 11 yardsSimilar
Q4 40:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
95.1%
Jonah Johnson sacked at SDSU35 for -5 yardsSimilar
Q4 21:00
2ND & 15
OPP 35
-10
96.0%
NMSt-Sage Doxtater PENALIZED -10 yards for HoldingSimilar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 25
OPP 45
0
97.5%
Jonah Johnson incomplete pass intended for Cole HarritySimilar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 25
OPP 45
-5
98.5%
NMSt-Jonah Johnson PENALIZED -5 yards for Illegal Forward PassSimilar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 30
50
+19
98.5%
Jonah Johnson pass to Alex Escobar to SDSU31 for 19 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q2 49:00
San Diego State Aztecs timeout.
+22.5
KEY PLAY · Q2 5:00
SDSU-Chris Martinez PENALIZED -10 yards for Holding
-16.5
TD · Q3 3:19
Jordon Brookshire rush for 18 yards for a TOUCHDOWN Matt Araiza extra point is GOOD.
+11.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com