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UNC

North Carolina 10 at Virginia Tech 17

VT
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2021 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:19 · Peter Moore punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 76Home team on offense+14.4Pregame prior−7.2Garbage-time factor+5.3Score differential+6.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1Time remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:07: Braxton Burmeister pass complete to James Mitchell for 11 yds for a TD, (John Parker Romo KICK) — VT win probability +9.1 pts (now 68%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:20: Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 37 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +16.9 pts (now 38%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 4:11: Braxton Burmeister run for 18 yds to the VTech 43 for a 1ST down — VT win probability +6.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 5:53: Grayson Atkins 31 yd FG GOOD — UNC win probability +5.4 pts (now 18%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:33: Tre Turner run for 12 yds to the VTech 44 for a 1ST down — VT win probability +10.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 8:18UNC 4th & 13 at UNC 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%
    average punt
  2. Q2 10:26UNC 4th & 20 at VT 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−1.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    48.0%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 1:30UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 33, down 14
    Close callPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:27VT 4th & 18 at VT 22, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−2.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%
    average punt
  5. Q3 12:58UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 33, down 14
    Close callPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:19VT 4th & 2 at VT 26, up 14
    Close callPunted · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:15VT 4th & 12 at VT 23, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−3.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:16UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.8%−2.9
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:18VT 4th & 10 at UNC 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    76.6%−2.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:34UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.6%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:39VT 4th & 9 at UNC 13, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    78.4%−6.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:53UNC 4th & 8 at VT 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    6.3%−3.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:17VT 4th & 6 at VT 49, up 7
    Close callPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:51UNC 4th & 11 at UNC 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.9%
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.1%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UNC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:01VT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:07VT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:20UNC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VTDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:5534% → 39%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
34.1%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tre Turner for 9 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
34.4%
Braxton Burmeister run for 3 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+33
34.7%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 33 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
35.2%
Jalen Holston run for 4 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+1
35.7%
Keshawn King run for 1 yd to the NCaro 25Similar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+16
36.0%
Tayvion Robinson run for 16 yds to the NCaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
36.4%
Jalen Holston run for 5 yds to the NCaro 4Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
38.5%
Braxton Burmeister run for 4 yds for a TD, (John Parker Romo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 1:3962% → 60%
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
37.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 13 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
37.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Antoine Green) to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+2
38.5%
Sam Howell run for 2 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 13
OWN 35
0
39.0%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 13
OWN 35
0
39.3%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Emery SimmonsSimilar
Q1 8:18
4TH & 13
OWN 35
+29
39.6%
Ben Kiernan punt for 44 yds , Tayvion Robinson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 34 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Obi Egbuna) to the VTech 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3FUMBLE
12 plays · 56 yds · 7:2739% → 46%
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
39.4%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to James Mitchell for 5 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+11
40.4%
Raheem Blackshear run for 11 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
41.0%
Raheem Blackshear run for 5 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
41.8%
Keshawn King run for no gain to the NCaro 44Similar
Q1 5:23
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+6
42.2%
Braxton Burmeister run for 6 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
43.1%
Jalen Holston run for 3 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+6
43.8%
Jalen Holston run for 6 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+1
44.1%
Jalen Holston run for 1 yd to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
45.0%
Jalen Holston run for 8 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+3
45.2%
Jalen Holston run for 3 yds to the NCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
45.8%
Braxton Burmeister run for 7 yds to the NCaro 10Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+1
46.4%
Keshawn King run for 1 yd to the NCaro 9 Keshawn King fumbled, forced by Trey Morrison, recovered by NCaro Ja'Qurious ConleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 52 yds · 5:1555% → 51%
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+23
44.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 23 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
44.5%
Ty Chandler run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 30Similar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+14
46.3%
Sam Howell run for 14 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
44.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 10 yds to the VTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
44.6%
Ty Chandler run for 9 yds to the VTech 35Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+6
43.9%
Ty Chandler run for 6 yds to the VTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
44.1%
Sam Howell sacked by Alan Tisdale for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 30Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+4
44.7%
Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the VTech 26Similar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 7
OPP 26
-13
46.2%
Sam Howell sacked by Mario Kendricks for a loss of 13 yards to the VTech 39Similar
Q2 10:26
4TH & 20
OPP 39
0
49.5%
Ben Kiernan punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 7:1650% → 68%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-6
49.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the VTech 14 TEAM fumbled, recovered by VTechSimilar
Q2 9:39
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+3
50.0%
Raheem Blackshear run for 3 yds to the VTech 17Similar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+18
49.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 18 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
52.6%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tre Turner for 16 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
54.9%
Braxton Burmeister run for 6 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+3
55.7%
Jalen Holston run for 3 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+2
55.6%
Jalen Holston run for 2 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-4
56.9%
Raheem Blackshear run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 42Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 14
OPP 42
+34
56.4%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tre Turner for 34 yds to the NCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
58.4%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Tre TurnerSimilar
Q2 3:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
58.4%
Raheem Blackshear run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 11 Raheem Blackshear fumbled, recovered by VTech Raheem BlackshearSimilar
Q2 3:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
67.6%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to James Mitchell for 11 yds for a TD, (John Parker Romo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:3135% → 30%
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
65.3%
Sam Howell sacked by Dax Hollifield and Amare Barno for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 20Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
66.8%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Emery SimmonsSimilar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+13
67.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 13 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q2 1:30
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
69.6%
Ben Kiernan punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VTech 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 1:0072% → 71%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
71.8%
Raheem Blackshear run for 1 yd to the VTech 31Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
72.6%
Raheem Blackshear run for no gain to the VTech 31Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 9
OWN 31
-9
72.2%
Braxton Burmeister sacked by Tomon Fox for a loss of 9 yards to the VTech 22Similar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 18
OWN 22
0
71.3%
Peter Moore punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8END OF HALF
5 plays · 43 yds · 0:1926% → 27%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
73.8%
Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 5
OWN 32
-8
72.9%
Sam Howell sacked by Amare Barno for a loss of 8 yards to the NCaro 24 Sam Howell fumbled, forced by Amare Barno, recovered by NCaroSimilar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 13
OWN 24
+17
74.4%
Sam Howell run for 17 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
72.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+29
73.5%
D.J. Jones run for 29 yds to the VTech 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5329% → 27%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.2%
Sam Howell sacked by Amare Barno for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 21 Sam Howell fumbled, forced by TyJuan Garbutt, recovered by NCaro Sam Howell, return for 0 yards to the NCaro 21Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+10
72.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 10 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
71.8%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 12:58
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
73.0%
Ben Kiernan punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the VTech 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3475% → 75%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
74.9%
Jalen Holston run for 3 yds to the VTech 21Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+5
75.7%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tre Turner for 5 yds to the VTech 26Similar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 2
OWN 26
0
75.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Tayvion RobinsonSimilar
Q3 11:19
4TH & 2
OWN 26
0
75.0%
Peter Moore punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11INT
6 plays · 40 yds · 2:0325% → 26%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
75.1%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Garrett WalstonSimilar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+17
75.4%
Sam Howell run for 17 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
74.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to D.J. Jones for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 1
50
+12
72.8%
Sam Howell run for 12 yds to the VTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
73.8%
Caleb Hood run for 2 yds to the VTech 36Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
74.5%
Sam Howell pass intercepted Jermaine Waller return for no gain to the VTech 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:5180% → 81%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
79.6%
Jalen Holston run for 6 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-10
80.7%
Holston, Jalen rush for 6 yards to the VATECH37, PENALTY VATECH holding (Hoffman, Brock) 10 yards to the VATECH21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+2
80.5%
Raheem Blackshear run for 2 yds to the VTech 23Similar
Q3 7:22
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
81.1%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Raheem BlackshearSimilar
Q3 7:15
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
80.7%
Peter Moore punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 2:5123% → 38%
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
77.4%
D.J. Jones run for 1 yd to the NCaro 40Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+3
78.0%
Sam Howell run for 3 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+5
79.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 5 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q3 5:16
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+9
79.0%
D.J. Jones run for 9 yds to the VTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
79.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 6 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+37
62.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 37 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 4:5371% → 80%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
70.9%
Braxton Burmeister run for 18 yds to the VTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
73.6%
Tayvion Robinson run for 9 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+3
74.9%
Jalen Holston run for 3 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
77.0%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 15 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-3
79.7%
Raheem Blackshear run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 13
OPP 33
+1
79.9%
Braxton Burmeister run for 1 yd to the NCaro 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 32
+2
79.9%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 2 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q4 14:18
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+48
79.6%
John Parker Romo 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15DOWNS
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:3719% → 19%
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.0%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Khafre BrownSimilar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
81.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Ed Montilus) to the NCaro 20Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+16
81.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 16 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
79.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to D.J. Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 31Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 15
OWN 31
0
81.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Emery SimmonsSimilar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 15
OWN 31
+12
82.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 12 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q4 12:34
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
81.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Emery SimmonsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
84.4%
Braxton Burmeister pass intercepted Ja'Qurious Conley return for no gain to the NCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:3319% → 18%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
80.9%
D.J. Jones run for 1 yd to the NCaro 31Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
81.6%
Sam Howell pass intercepted Dax Hollifield return for no gain to the NCaro 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18MISSED FG
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:0385% → 85%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
85.2%
Jalen Holston run for 2 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+20
85.5%
Braxton Burmeister run for 6 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Cam'Ron Kelly) to the NCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
85.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Drake DeIuliis for 1 yd to the NCaro 13Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 9
OPP 13
0
86.6%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Tayvion RobinsonSimilar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 9
OPP 13
0
85.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Tre TurnerSimilar
Q4 9:39
4TH & 9
OPP 13
+31
84.5%
John Parker Romo 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19FG
10 plays · 66 yds · 3:3913% → 18%
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
87.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 25 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
84.9%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Garrett WalstonSimilar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+23
85.4%
Ty Chandler run for 23 yds to the VTech 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
83.3%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Emery SimmonsSimilar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+1
83.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 1 yd to the VTech 31Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+15
86.4%
Howell, Sam pass incomplete to Simmons, Emery, PENALTY VATECH pass interference (Daley, Tae) 15 yards to the VATECH16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
84.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 6 yds to the VTech 10Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 4
OPP 10
0
84.9%
D.J. Jones run for no gain to the VTech 10Similar
Q4 6:34
3RD & 4
OPP 10
-4
87.3%
Sam Howell sacked by TyJuan Garbutt for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 14Similar
Q4 5:53
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+31
81.9%
Grayson Atkins 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:2089% → 92%
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
89.2%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to James Mitchell for 20 yds to the VTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
90.7%
Raheem Blackshear run for 6 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 4
OPP 49
-2
92.5%
Raheem Blackshear run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 49Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
92.7%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Raheem BlackshearSimilar
Q4 3:17
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
91.6%
Peter Moore punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21INT
10 plays · 47 yds · 2:3313% → 16%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
87.1%
Ty Chandler run for 12 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
87.1%
Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
85.9%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Garrett WalstonSimilar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
87.0%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Emery SimmonsSimilar
Q4 2:16
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-5
88.5%
Howell, Sam pass complete to Green, Antoine for 14 yards to the UNC43, PENALTY UNC ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the UNC24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:51
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+18
89.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 18 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
86.1%
Ty Chandler run for 6 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+9
85.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Ty Chandler for 9 yds to the VTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
84.7%
D.J. Jones run for 3 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
84.4%
Sam Howell pass intercepted Chamarri Conner return for no gain to the VTech 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22END OF GAME
7 plays · -1 yds · 0:1195% → 97%
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
95.3%
Tre Turner run for 12 yds to the VTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
96.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the VTech 39Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 15
OWN 39
-4
96.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 35Similar
Q4 0:22
3RD & 19
OWN 35
-4
96.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:20
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 37 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)
-16.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:33
Tre Turner run for 12 yds to the VTech 44 for a 1ST down
+10.9
TD · Q2 3:07
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to James Mitchell for 11 yds for a TD, (John Parker Romo KICK)
+9.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com