2021 · Week 6 · Oct 9, 2021 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreBOIS score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:01 · Jonah Dalmas 20 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 6:29: Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 11 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +11.8 pts (now 47%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:34: Andrew Van Buren run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +9.6 pts (now 57%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- FG · Q3 8:20: Jonah Dalmas 28 yd FG GOOD — BOIS win probability +7.1 pts (now 73%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:27: Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +23.8 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
- FG · Q4 3:27: Jonah Dalmas 22 yd FG GOOD — BOIS win probability +2.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
- Q1 10:24BYU 4th & 9 at BOIS 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.7% before the snapGo for it66.6%−0.128% to convertField goalTheir call66.7%85% to makePunt66.1%−0.6average punt
- Q1 9:15BOIS 4th & 5 at BOIS 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snapGo for it32.7%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.7%average punt
- Q1 1:25BOIS 4th & 11 at BYU 24, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.4% before the snapGo for it28.8%−0.525% to convertField goalTheir call29.3%68% to makePunt26.7%−2.6average punt
- Q2 14:05BYU 4th & 10 at BYU 35, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snapGo for it69.1%−0.729% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.8%average punt
- Q2 9:48BOIS 4th & 4 at BYU 42, down 7Close callPunted · 30.0% before the snapGo for it30.1%48% to convertField goal28.7%−1.430% to makePuntTheir call29.3%−0.8average punt
- Q2 2:03BYU 4th & 2 at BYU 46, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call50.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt49.4%−1.5average punt
- Q2 0:01BOIS 4th & 3 at BYU 3, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 55.9% before the snapGo for it57.6%44% to convertField goalTheir call55.4%−2.393% to makePunt47.7%−9.9average punt
- Q3 8:20BOIS 4th & 4 at BYU 11, up 10Close callKicked a field goal · 62.9% before the snapGo for it62.4%45% to convertField goalTheir call62.0%−0.487% to makePunt53.0%−9.5average punt
- Q3 4:44BYU 4th & 8 at BOIS 46, down 13Close callWent for it · 28.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call28.3%−0.334% to convertField goal27.2%−1.423% to makePunt28.6%average punt
- Q3 3:19BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 14, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.5% before the snapGo for it78.6%−1.639% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.2%average punt
- Q4 11:01BYU 4th & 5 at BOIS 5, down 13Close callWent for it · 21.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call19.9%−0.733% to convertField goal20.6%92% to makePunt12.4%−8.3average punt
- Q4 8:27BOIS 4th & 4 at BOIS 29, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.3% before the snapGo for it91.8%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.9%average punt
- Q4 3:27BOIS 4th & 4 at BYU 4, up 6Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 85.8% before the snapGo for it85.1%40% to convertField goalTheir call83.9%−1.393% to makePunt73.8%−11.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2BOIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 6:55BYU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.1%97% to makeGo for two69.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:29BOIS Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call34.3%97% to makeGo for two34.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:34BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.0%97% to makeGo for two47.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:27BYU Touchdown, down 7 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call22.9%−0.397% to makeGo for two23.2%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBYUDrive 1FG12 plays · 62 yds · 4:2162% → 62%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
61.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Dallin Holker for 23 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
61.8%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 14 yds to the BoiSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
62.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Gunner Romney for 8 yds to the BoiSt 16Similar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
62.1%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Dallin Holker for no gain to the BoiSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2FUMBLE5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4538% → 37%
BYUDrive 3TD6 plays · 84 yds · 2:0562% → 65%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+37
62.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 37 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
62.7%
BOISE ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the BoiSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+4
63.1%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Chris Jackson for 4 yds to the BoiSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+14
65.3%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Samson Nacua for 14 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4FG18 plays · 59 yds · 5:0936% → 34%
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
64.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Davis Koetter for 8 yds to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+10
64.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Habibi-Likio for 10 yds to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
3RD & 12
OPP 36
+13
65.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 13 yds to the BYU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-1
64.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for a loss of 1 yard Stefan Cobbs fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Stefan CobbsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 10 yds · 2:1666% → 66%
Q2 14:05
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+8
65.6%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 44 yds , Khalil Shakir returns for 8 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6PUNT9 plays · 29 yds · 4:0434% → 33%
BYUDrive 7FUMBLE6 plays · 15 yds · 1:2668% → 68%
Q2 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
67.6%
Tyler Allgeier run for 4 yds to the BYU 24 Tyler Allgeier fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Scott MatlockSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8TD4 plays · 24 yds · 1:0735% → 47%
Q2 7:14
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+9
65.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Habibi-Likio for 9 yds to the BYU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9TD7 plays · 23 yds · 2:2247% → 57%
BYUDrive 10DOWNS5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5048% → 47%
Q2 2:29
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+5
46.9%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 5 yds to the BYU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11END OF HALF11 plays · 43 yds · 1:4560% → 63%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
40.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 6 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
38.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 10 yds to the BYU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+24
38.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 24 yds to the BYU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12FG15 plays · 54 yds · 6:0860% → 73%
Q3 11:58
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+6
36.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Tyneil Hopper for 6 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
34.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Habibi-Likio for 6 yds to the BYU 24Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+5
33.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 5 yds to the BYU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13FUMBLE11 plays · 73 yds · 3:3930% → 30%
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
29.8%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 17 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
30.8%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for no gain to the BYU 42Similar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
30.9%
Jaren Hall sacked by Scott Matlock for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q3 4:44
4TH & 8
OPP 46
+15
26.5%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 15 yds to the BoiSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+13
30.0%
Lopini Katoa run for 13 yds to the BoiSt 10 Lopini Katoa fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Alexander Teubner , return for a loss of 8 yards to the BoiSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4781% → 81%
Q3 3:19
4TH & 6
OWN 14
+2
19.4%
Joel Velazquez punt for 52 yds , Talmage Gunther returns for 2 yds to the BYU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15DOWNS17 plays · 59 yds · 6:5826% → 21%
Q3 2:16
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+18
23.5%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Gunner Romney for 18 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
25.7%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 16 yds to the BoiSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 16
OPP 17
+14
22.5%
BOISE ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (14 Yards) to the BoiSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 24 yds · 2:0590% → 92%
Q4 9:47
3RD & 7
OWN 8
+15
9.7%
BYU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the BoiSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-9
8.4%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Pepe Tanuvasa for a loss of 9 yards to the BoiSt 16Similar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 17
OWN 16
+13
8.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Tyler Eiguren for 13 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q4 8:27
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
8.4%
Joel Velazquez punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17TD4 plays · 70 yds · 0:4812% → 41%
BOISDrive 18FG14 plays · 71 yds · 3:5577% → 91%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
23.0%
BYU Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the BoiSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
21.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Andrew Van Buren for 6 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
19.7%
BYU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the BoiSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+8
17.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 8 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+35
14.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 35 yds to the BYU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19INT10 plays · 36 yds · 1:2111% → 7%
Q4 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
9.3%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 10 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
8.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 19 yds to the BoiSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+17
9.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Gunner Romney for 17 yds to the BoiSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 20
OPP 39
0
6.8%
Jaren Hall pass intercepted Kaonohi Kaniho return for no gain to the BoiSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20END OF GAME6 plays · 7 yds · 1:4996% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:27
Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)
+23.8
TD · Q2 6:29
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 11 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
-11.8
TD · Q2 3:34
Andrew Van Buren run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
-9.6