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BYU

BYU 34 at Utah State 20

USU
2021 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2021 · Maverik Stadium
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Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.5USU 30.0%Connor Coles 52 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 3 · Q1 3:20
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:20 · Connor Coles 52 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 32Home team on offense−1.7Pregame prior−18.5Score differential−0.6Garbage-time factor−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:42: Baylor Romney pass complete to Isaac Rex for 15 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +5.0 pts (now 77%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:09: Tyler Allgeier run for 59 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +6.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 14:22: Jake Oldroyd 32 yd FG GOOD — BYU win probability +6.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:52: Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 28 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK) — USU win probability +15.6 pts (now 31%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:40: Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +9.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9BYU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:20USU 4th & 5 at USU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:20USU 4th & 4 at BYU 35, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.7%−0.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    30.4%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:42USU 4th & 2 at BYU 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    26.8%−1.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    27.2%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:55USU 4th & 10 at BYU 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    19.6%−2.6
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:56BYU 4th & 12 at BYU 23, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−2.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:56USU 4th & 7 at USU 24, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−0.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:30BYU 4th & 4 at BYU 43, up 11
    Close callPunted · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:47USU 4th & 1 at BYU 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    20.7%−3.0
    49% to make
    Punt
    19.7%−3.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:46BYU 4th & 8 at BYU 35, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%−1.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:03USU 4th & 11 at USU 22, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−1.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:22BYU 4th & 10 at USU 15, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%−1.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    73.3%−7.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:15USU 4th & 1 at USU 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.5%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:24USU 4th & 11 at USU 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:58BYU 4th & 23 at USU 41, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    97.3%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BYU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:36BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:42BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:08USU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:09BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:52USU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:40BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USUDrive 1INT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:5128% → 29%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
27.9%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
27.9%
Logan Bonner run for 4 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+12
27.9%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 12 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
27.9%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 3 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
27.9%
Logan Bonner sacked by Ben Bywater for 0 yards to the UthSt 39Similar
Q1 13:09
3RD & 11
OWN 39
0
28.7%
Logan Bonner pass intercepted return for no gain to the BYU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2TD
4 plays · 74 yds · 1:3371% → 72%
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
28.7%
ROMNEY, Baylor sacked for a loss of 7 yards at the BYU19 (MEITZENHEIMER, Kevin). PENALTY USU Offsides on MOTU'APUAKA, Hale enforced 5 yards from the BYU26 to the BYU31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 5
OWN 31
+42
28.6%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Puka Nacua for 42 yds to the UthSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
28.5%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Gunner Romney for 5 yds to the UthSt 22Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+22
28.1%
Tyler Allgeier run for 22 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1628% → 28%
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
28.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 1 yd to the UthSt 26Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
28.4%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 4 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
28.4%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:20
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+22
28.4%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 47 yds , Hobbs Nyberg returns for 22 yds to the BYU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4END OF HALF
11 plays · 53 yds · 10:2072% → 73%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
28.2%
Tyler Allgeier run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 5
50
+17
28.1%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Samson Nacua for 17 yds to the UthSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
28.1%
Tyler Allgeier run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 34Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+1
28.1%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 1 yd to the UthSt 33Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+19
28.2%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Isaac Rex for 19 yds to the UthSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
28.1%
Neil Pau'u pass complete to Baylor Romney for 13 yds to the UthSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
28.1%
Neil Pau'u pass complete to Baylor Romney for no gain to the UthSt 1Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
28.2%
Baylor Romney sacked for 0 yards to the UthSt 32Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
28.1%
Baylor Romney sacked by Hunter Reynolds for 0 yards to the UthSt 6Similar
Q1 5:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 32
+49
28.9%
Jake Oldroyd 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
27.4%
Lopini Katoa run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5FG
7 plays · 40 yds · 1:4629% → 30%
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
28.7%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
28.8%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+32
28.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 32 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
29.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 5 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+1
29.6%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 1 yd to the BYU 35Similar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 4
OPP 35
0
29.5%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:20
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+52
30.0%
Connor Coles 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:3871% → 77%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
29.0%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 12 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
28.7%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Gunner Romney for 9 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+3
28.3%
Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
28.3%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 13 yds to the UthSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
28.2%
Baylor Romney pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+12
28.2%
Lopini Katoa run for 12 yds to the UthSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
27.8%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Isaac Rex for 5 yds to the UthSt 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+1
27.8%
Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd to the UthSt 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+5
28.1%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Puka Nacua for 5 yds to the UthSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
23.1%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Isaac Rex for 15 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 7:3425% → 30%
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
24.7%
John Gentry run for a loss of 8 yards to the UthSt 17Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+10
24.5%
Logan Bonner run for 10 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
24.4%
BONNER, Logan pass to the right incomplete intended for THOMPKINS, Deven thrown to the USU42. PENALTY BYU Holding on WILSON, Jaques enforced 10 yards from the USU27 to the USU37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
25.1%
Logan Bonner run for 1 yd to the UthSt 38Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
25.2%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+12
24.9%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
50
+1
25.8%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the BYU 49Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+3
25.8%
Elelyon Noa run for 3 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+4
25.7%
Elelyon Noa run for 4 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q2 13:42
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+2
25.6%
Elelyon Noa run for 2 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
25.8%
Elelyon Noa run for 1 yd to the BYU 39Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+5
25.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 5 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+5
25.8%
Elelyon Noa run for 5 yds to the BYU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
26.1%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-2
26.1%
Logan Bonner run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 31Similar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 12
OPP 31
+15
25.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 15 yds to the BYU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
26.1%
Elelyon Noa run for 2 yds to the BYU 14Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 8
OPP 14
0
26.1%
Logan Bonner sacked for 0 yards to the BYU 21Similar
Q2 6:08
3RD & 15
OPP 21
+21
30.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Justin McGriff for 21 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 1:5372% → 80%
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
28.5%
Baylor Romney pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+11
28.7%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Gunner Romney for 11 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
27.8%
Tyler Allgeier run for 6 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+2
27.0%
Tyler Allgeier run for 2 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+59
20.4%
Tyler Allgeier run for 59 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9FG
14 plays · 47 yds · 3:1421% → 24%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
21.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Kyle Van Leeuwen for 10 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
21.5%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 34Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
21.3%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+5
20.8%
BONNER, Logan pass to the right complete for 1 yard to TYLER JR., Calvin caught at the USU35 and advanced to the USU35 (TOOLEY, Max). PENALTY Before the snap, BYU Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the USU34 to the USU39. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+8
22.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Kyle Van Leeuwen for 8 yds to the UthSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
22.5%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+25
22.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 25 yds to the BYU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
23.2%
Pailate Makakona run for 12 yds to the BYU 16 for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-12 Yards) to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 20
OPP 38
+15
22.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 15 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 5
OPP 23
-5
23.2%
Pailate Makakona run for a loss of 5 yards to the BYU 28Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
20.9%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
24.0%
Connor Coles 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10MISSED FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 0:5577% → 80%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
22.8%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Puka Nacua for 15 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
21.8%
Baylor Romney run for 13 yds to the UthSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
21.6%
Baylor Romney pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-6
21.0%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for a loss of 6 yards to the BYU 47Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 16
OWN 47
+24
21.8%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 24 yds to the UthSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
19.7%
Baylor Romney pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+45
19.9%
Jake Oldroyd 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:0476% → 75%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.9%
Jacob Conover pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
24.1%
Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
24.3%
BYU Penalty, False Start (Blake Freeland) to the BYU 23Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
24.7%
Jacob Conover pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:56
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+1
25.0%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 57 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 1 yd to the UthSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0024% → 22%
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
23.5%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 1 yd to the UthSt 22Similar
Q3 13:56
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+2
23.5%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the UthSt 24Similar
Q3 13:56
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
22.7%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:56
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
22.0%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 39 yds, downed at the BYU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:2677% → 78%
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
22.8%
Tyler Allgeier run for 4 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-5
22.3%
BYU Penalty, False Start (Clark Barrington) to the BYU 36Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+4
23.0%
Tyler Allgeier run for 4 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q3 12:56
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+3
22.7%
Jacob Conover pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 3 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q3 10:30
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
22.0%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14DOWNS
10 plays · 47 yds · 2:4322% → 23%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
21.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 13 yds to the UthSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
22.2%
John Gentry run for no gain to the UthSt 33Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+11
22.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 11 yds to the UthSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
23.2%
John Gentry run for 7 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 3
OPP 49
0
24.1%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+7
23.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 7 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
24.1%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+8
24.0%
John Gentry run for 8 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+1
24.0%
Logan Bonner run for 1 yd to the BYU 33Similar
Q3 7:47
4TH & 1
OPP 33
0
22.5%
John Gentry run for no gain to the BYU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:0179% → 78%
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
20.9%
Jacob Conover pass complete to Gunner Romney for 2 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 8
OWN 35
-10
20.9%
BYU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Neil Pau'u) to the BYU 31Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 12
OWN 31
0
21.3%
Jacob Conover pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+4
21.8%
Lopini Katoa run for 4 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q3 5:46
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
21.7%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:4321% → 18%
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
20.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 12 yds to the UthSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-12
21.0%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for a loss of 12 yards to the UthSt 11Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 22
OWN 11
+11
20.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Calvin Tyler Jr. for 11 yds to the UthSt 22Similar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 11
OWN 22
0
19.7%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:03
4TH & 11
OWN 22
+4
17.9%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 47 yds , Hobbs Nyberg returns for 4 yds to the BYU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 4:4180% → 90%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
20.0%
Jacob Conover pass complete to Gunner Romney for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
50
+9
18.3%
Jacob Conover pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 9 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+2
18.1%
Tyler Allgeier run for 2 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
18.3%
Puka Nacua run for 9 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 1
OPP 30
-1
17.7%
Tyler Allgeier run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 31Similar
Q3 0:26
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+16
15.9%
Jacob Conover pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 16 yds to the UthSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-3
15.4%
Lopini Katoa run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 18
+3
15.6%
Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the UthSt 15Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
15.9%
Jacob Conover pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:22
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+32
9.8%
Jake Oldroyd 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18TD
15 plays · 90 yds · 4:2312% → 31%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
12.3%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
12.2%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+10
12.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Kyle Van Leeuwen for 10 yds to the UthSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
12.5%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
12.3%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the UthSt 22Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+7
12.1%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 7 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+1
12.6%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 1 yd to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
12.8%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
12.4%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+10
12.1%
Logan Bonner run for 10 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
13.8%
BONNER, Logan pass to the right incomplete intended for THOMPKINS, Deven thrown to the BYU25. PENALTY BYU Pass Interference on UDO, George enforced 15 yards to the BYU45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
14.8%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 1 yd to the BYU 44Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+16
14.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 16 yds to the BYU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
15.6%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+28
31.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 28 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 68 yds · 0:5681% → 94%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+67
18.6%
Tyler Allgeier run for 67 yds to the UthSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
15.2%
Tyler Allgeier run for no gain to the UthSt 1Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.6%
Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:167% → 6%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
7.1%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
7.0%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Derek Wright for 6 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
7.4%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Justin McGriff for 5 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
7.6%
Andrew Peasley sacked by Uriah Leiataua for 0 yards to the UthSt 31Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 15
OWN 31
0
7.0%
Andrew Peasley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 15
OWN 31
+4
6.8%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Calvin Tyler Jr. for 4 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q4 6:24
4TH & 11
OWN 35
+12
5.5%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 43 yds , Hobbs Nyberg returns for 12 yds to the BYU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21PUNT
13 plays · 25 yds · 4:2695% → 98%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
5.2%
Tyler Allgeier run for 6 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+10
4.8%
Tyler Allgeier run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
50
-1
4.3%
Lopini Katoa run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 49Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+8
4.4%
Puka Nacua run for 8 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 3
OPP 43
-5
4.4%
BYU Penalty, False Start (Clark Barrington) to the UthSt 48Similar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+20
4.4%
Tyler Allgeier run for 20 yds to the UthSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-4
4.3%
Tyler Allgeier run for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 32Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 14
OPP 32
-1
3.0%
Lopini Katoa run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 33Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 15
OPP 33
-3
3.1%
Lopini Katoa run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 36Similar
Q4 2:58
4TH & 18
OPP 36
-5
3.2%
BYU Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the UthSt 41Similar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 23
OPP 41
0
2.4%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 39 yds, downed at the UthSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22INT
3 plays · 23 yds · 0:393% → 3%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+15
2.8%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 15 yds to the UthSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
3.0%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Elelyon Noa for 8 yds to the UthSt 25Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 2
OWN 25
0
3.0%
Andrew Peasley pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:52
Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 28 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)
+15.6
TD · Q4 8:40
Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)
-9.6
TD · Q2 4:09
Tyler Allgeier run for 59 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)
-6.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com