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BYU

BYU 35 at USC 31

USC
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2021 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.5USC 38.9%Parker Lewis 26 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q1 11:20
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:20 · Parker Lewis 26 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 10Home team on offense+0.3Pregame prior−12.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:06: Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds for a TD, (Parker Lewis KICK) — USC win probability +8.5 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 11:37: Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 41 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +10.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:12: Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds for a TD, (Parker Lewis KICK) — USC win probability +10.1 pts (now 30%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:03: Jaxson Dart pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 10 yds for a TD, (Jaxson Dart pass to Lake McRee for Two-Point Conversion) — USC win probability +28.6 pts (now 70%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:57: Jackson McChesney run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +40.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 9 of 9BYU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:20USC 4th & 9 at BYU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    31.4%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:30USC 4th & 5 at USC 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:14BYU 4th & 8 at BYU 39, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:10USC 4th & 7 at USC 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:53BYU 4th & 1 at USC 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    64.2%−1.8
    27% to make
    Punt
    64.8%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:34BYU 4th & 1 at USC 9, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    64.2%−1.5
    89% to make
    Punt
    60.3%−5.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:24USC 4th & 7 at USC 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:30USC 4th & 1 at BYU 4, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.6%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    16.1%−2.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    9.3%−9.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:12USC 4th & 2 at BYU 2, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    16.5%−1.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    9.5%−8.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:21BYU 4th & 7 at BYU 28, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:45USC 4th & 7 at BYU 20, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−1.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    15.3%−9.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:10BYU 4th & 30 at USC 47, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−5.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:33BYU 4th & 3 at USC 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    34.3%−4.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    34.9%−3.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:19USC 4th & 4 at USC 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%−1.0
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:38USC 4th & 6 at BYU 15, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    18.2%−2.9
    83% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−10.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3BYU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 7:24BYU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:34BYU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:06USC Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:45BYU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:37BYU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:12USC Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:03USC Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    59.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    59.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:57BYU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1FG
10 plays · 25 yds · 3:2337% → 39%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+16
37.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 16 yds to the BYU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
37.4%
Vavae Malepeai run for 9 yds to the BYU 9Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 1
OPP 9
-2
37.6%
Darwin Barlow run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 11Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+4
38.0%
Jaxson Dart run for 4 yds to the BYU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-4
38.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for a loss of 4 yards to the BYU 11Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
38.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Gary Bryant Jr.Similar
Q1 12:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-5
38.5%
USC Penalty, False Start (Jalen McKenzie) to the BYU 16Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
+7
38.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 7 yds to the BYU 9Similar
Q1 11:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
38.9%
Parker Lewis 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5661% → 63%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
38.8%
USC Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the BYU 30Similar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
38.8%
Tyler Allgeier run for 8 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+1
38.8%
Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd to the BYU 39Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+4
39.1%
Tyler Allgeier run for 4 yds to the BYU 43 Tyler Allgeier fumbled, recovered by BYU Puka Nacua for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
39.5%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
39.7%
Samson Nacua run for 5 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+6
39.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 6 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
39.8%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Dallin Holker for 18 yds to the USC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
37.5%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 28 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4039% → 38%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
38.5%
Darwin Barlow run for 5 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 5
OWN 31
0
38.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Gary Bryant Jr.Similar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
38.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tahj WashingtonSimilar
Q1 6:30
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
38.1%
Ben Griffiths punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:1061% → 61%
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
38.6%
Jaren Hall run for 10 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
38.4%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
38.6%
Puka Nacua run for 2 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
38.6%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Keanu HillSimilar
Q1 5:14
4TH & 8
OWN 39
+5
39.4%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 51 yds , Gary Bryant Jr. returns for 5 yds to the USC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:5739% → 38%
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
38.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 3 yds to the USC 18Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+8
38.8%
Vavae Malepeai run for 8 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
39.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Michael Jackson IIISimilar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
38.9%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
38.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Lake McReeSimilar
Q1 3:10
4TH & 7
OWN 29
+64
38.3%
Ben Griffiths punt for 59 yds BYU Penalty, Offensive Holding (5 Yards) to the BYU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6TD
20 plays · 93 yds · 6:3161% → 69%
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
39.5%
Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd to the BYU 8Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+5
39.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Samson Nacua for 5 yds to the BYU 13Similar
Q1 1:47
3RD & 3
OWN 13
+22
39.9%
Tyler Allgeier run for 22 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
38.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Dallin Holker for 12 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
38.0%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Samson NacuaSimilar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
38.1%
Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 7
50
-5
38.2%
BYU Penalty, False Start (Blake Freeland) to the BYU 45Similar
Q1 0:20
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+11
39.2%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 11 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+8
38.8%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 8 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
37.9%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 1 yd to the USC 35Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
37.5%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Tyler AllgeierSimilar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+5
38.2%
USC Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the USC 30Similar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+12
37.9%
Tyler Allgeier run for 12 yds to the USC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
37.2%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Isaac RexSimilar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
37.0%
Lopini Katoa run for no gain to the USC 18Similar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 10
OPP 18
-5
37.9%
BYU Penalty, False Start (Blake Freeland) to the USC 23Similar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 15
OPP 23
+9
38.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 9 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q2 11:38
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+5
39.0%
USC Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the USC 9Similar
Q2 11:34
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+9
31.5%
Tyler Allgeier run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 3:1433% → 42%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
32.6%
Darwin Barlow run for 4 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+18
32.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jude Wolfe for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
50
+7
33.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Kyle Ford for 7 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+11
33.6%
Darwin Barlow run for 11 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
34.3%
Darwin Barlow run for no gain to the BYU 32Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+17
34.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Kyle Ford for 17 yds to the BYU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
34.3%
Darwin Barlow run for 5 yds to the BYU 10Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+4
33.5%
Darwin Barlow run for 4 yds to the BYU 6Similar
Q2 8:06
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+6
42.0%
Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds for a TD, (Parker Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 2:1361% → 71%
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
39.2%
USC Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Chris Steele) to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
38.2%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 4 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+18
37.9%
Jaren Hall run for 18 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
36.9%
Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd to the USC 45Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+36
37.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Masen Wake for 36 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
36.5%
USC Penalty, Substitution Infraction (4 Yards) to the USC 5Similar
Q2 5:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
36.5%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Isaac RexSimilar
Q2 5:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
28.7%
Tyler Allgeier run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1629% → 28%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
29.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Darwin Barlow for 1 yd to the USC 26Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
29.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 2 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
28.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tahj WashingtonSimilar
Q2 4:24
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+2
27.8%
Ben Griffiths punt for 59 yds , Hobbs Nyberg returns for 2 yds to the BYU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10INT
8 plays · 40 yds · 3:1570% → 75%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
29.9%
Puka Nacua run for 3 yds to the BYU 18Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+5
29.3%
Tyler Allgeier run for 5 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+8
29.3%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Samson Nacua for 8 yds to the BYU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
28.3%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 8 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+1
27.5%
Lopini Katoa run for 1 yd to the BYU 40Similar
Q2 2:01
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+2
27.8%
Jaren Hall run for 2 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
27.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Samson Nacua for 13 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
25.4%
Jaren Hall pass intercepted Kana'i Mauga return for no gain to the USC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11END OF HALF
11 plays · 54 yds · 0:5528% → 33%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
27.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 12 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
28.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Michael Jackson IIISimilar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
28.4%
Vavae Malepeai run for 1 yd to the USC 43Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+18
27.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Lake McRee for 18 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
28.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 16 yds to the BYU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
30.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+7
30.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Lake McRee for 7 yds to the BYU 16Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+33
32.5%
Parker Lewis 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1871% → 84%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
28.9%
Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd to the BYU 26Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
28.9%
USC Penalty, Roughing Passer (Drake Jackson) to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
27.1%
Tyler Allgeier run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 40Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+10
27.5%
Tyler Allgeier run for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 1
50
+3
27.0%
Jaren Hall run for 3 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
26.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 6 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+41
16.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 41 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:2020% → 30%
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
19.9%
Darwin Barlow run for 1 yd to the USC 26Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+14
19.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Darwin Barlow for 14 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
20.8%
Darwin Barlow run for 7 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+7
21.4%
Darwin Barlow run for 7 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+19
21.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Lake McRee for 19 yds to the BYU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
22.1%
Darwin Barlow run for 14 yds to the BYU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
22.1%
Darwin Barlow run for 6 yds to the BYU 7Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 4
OPP 7
0
22.0%
Darwin Barlow run for no gain to the BYU 7Similar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+3
20.9%
Darwin Barlow run for 3 yds to the BYU 4Similar
Q3 8:30
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+2
20.7%
Darwin Barlow run for 2 yds to the BYU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
20.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tahj WashingtonSimilar
Q3 7:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
20.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 1 yd to the BYU 1Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
20.1%
Vavae Malepeai run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 2Similar
Q3 7:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
30.2%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds for a TD, (Parker Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4573% → 72%
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.6%
Tyler Allgeier run for no gain to the BYU 25Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
26.9%
Jaren Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 23 Jaren Hall fumbled, recovered by BYU Tyler AllgeierSimilar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+5
27.8%
Jaren Hall run for 5 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q3 5:21
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
28.2%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 45 yds, downed at the USC 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15FG
6 plays · 53 yds · 1:3628% → 37%
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
28.4%
BYU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+35
28.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 35 yds to the BYU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
31.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for 1 yd to the BYU 22Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+2
31.2%
Brandon Campbell run for 2 yds to the BYU 20Similar
Q3 3:49
3RD & 7
OPP 20
0
29.3%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Gary Bryant Jr.Similar
Q3 3:45
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+37
37.2%
Parker Lewis 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:2967% → 67%
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.8%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Puka NacuaSimilar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
33.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 17 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
30.3%
Puka Nacua run for 5 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+26
30.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Dallin Holker for 26 yds to the USC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
27.9%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-1
27.0%
Tyler Allgeier run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 28Similar
Q3 1:16
3RD & 11
OPP 28
-19
28.7%
Jaren Hall sacked by Chris Steele for a loss of 19 yards to the USC 47 BYU Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jaren Hall) to the USC 47Similar
Q3 1:10
4TH & 30
OPP 47
0
32.7%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Gary Bryant Jr. at the USC 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17TD
12 plays · 91 yds · 5:0235% → 70%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
34.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 1 yd to the USC 10Similar
Q3 0:31
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+19
34.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Lake McRee for 19 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
34.9%
Darwin Barlow run for 1 yd to the USC 30Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+15
34.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 15 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
37.9%
Darwin Barlow run for 8 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+1
39.7%
Darwin Barlow run for 1 yd to the BYU 46Similar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+4
38.9%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
39.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 11 yds to the BYU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
41.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 14 yds to the BYU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
41.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the BYU 14Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+4
41.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the BYU 10Similar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+10
70.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 10 yds for a TD, (Jaxson Dart pass to Lake McRee for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18INT
9 plays · 36 yds · 2:4136% → 41%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
64.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 15 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
61.4%
Tyler Allgeier run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
50
+1
58.6%
Jaren Hall run for 1 yd to the USC 49Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+5
58.7%
Tyler Allgeier run for 5 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+1
59.3%
Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd to the USC 43Similar
Q4 8:33
4TH & 3
OPP 43
+4
61.7%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 4 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
58.9%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Samson NacuaSimilar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
59.1%
Jaren Hall pass intercepted, touchback. Calen Bullock return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4970% → 69%
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
69.6%
USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (Liam Jimmons) to the USC 10Similar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+2
69.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Erik Krommenhoek for 2 yds to the USC 12Similar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 18
OWN 12
0
69.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Gary Bryant Jr.Similar
Q4 6:59
3RD & 18
OWN 12
+14
67.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Erik Krommenhoek for 14 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q4 6:19
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
68.6%
Ben Griffiths punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:1736% → 82%
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
64.1%
Tyler Allgeier run for 7 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+8
60.5%
Tyler Allgeier run for 8 yds to the USC 25 Tyler Allgeier fumbled, recovered by BYU Dallin Holker for a 1ST down Dallin Holker run for 22 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
57.8%
Jaren Hall run for 8 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+3
57.9%
Jackson McChesney run for 3 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
58.0%
Jackson McChesney run for 7 yds to the USC 7Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+7
17.6%
Jackson McChesney run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21DOWNS
15 plays · 60 yds · 3:0832% → 25%
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
32.2%
Vavae Malepeai run for 7 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+5
33.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
34.1%
Vavae Malepeai run for no gain to the USC 42Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
31.6%
Jaxson Dart run for 4 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+10
30.9%
Vavae Malepeai run for 10 yds to the BYU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
35.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for 7 yds to the BYU 37Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 3
OPP 37
0
36.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Gary Bryant Jr.Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+4
35.4%
Darwin Barlow run for 4 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
38.9%
Jaxson Dart run for 14 yds to the BYU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
39.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Gary Bryant Jr.Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+4
36.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the BYU 15Similar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 6
OPP 15
0
35.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for no gain to the BYU 15Similar
Q4 0:38
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+5
25.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 5 yds to the BYU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22END OF GAME
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0493% → 93%
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
7.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 9Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 11
OWN 9
-1
7.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 8Similar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 12
OWN 8
-1
6.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:57
Jackson McChesney run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)
-40.4
TD · Q4 11:03
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 10 yds for a TD, (Jaxson Dart pass to Lake McRee for Two-Point Conversion)
+28.6
TD · Q3 7:12
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds for a TD, (Parker Lewis KICK)
+10.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com