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ORST

Oregon State 29 at Oregon 38

ORE
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2021 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:10 · Tom Snee punt for 36 yds , Trevon Bradford returns for 8 yds to the OrgSt 46 OREGON ST Penalty, Illegal Block (15 Yards) to the OrgSt 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 101Home team on offense+18.2Pregame prior+8.7Score differential+8.3Garbage-time factor+6.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:35: Anthony Brown 10 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick) — ORE win probability +7.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:33: Luke Musgrave 4 Yd pass from Chance Nolan (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — ORST win probability +8.4 pts (now 14%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:57: B.J. Baylor 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — ORST win probability +5.5 pts (now 7%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:28: Trevon Bradford 15 Yd pass from Chance Nolan (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — ORST win probability +7.7 pts (now 14%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:08: Chance Nolan 1 Yd Run (Chance Nolan Pass to Zeriah Beason for Two-Point Conversion) — ORST win probability +5.9 pts (now 8%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ORST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:53ORE 4th & 1 at ORST 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    69.8%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    69.4%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:46ORST 4th & 7 at ORST 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:24ORST 4th & 7 at ORE 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    20.1%−3.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:06ORE 4th & 8 at ORST 18, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    73.1%−3.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:47ORST 4th & 9 at ORST 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:33ORST 4th & 4 at ORE 4, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    5.6%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−5.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:10ORE 4th & 8 at ORE 38, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:03ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 36, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  9. Q4 1:20ORST 4th & 10 at ORE 17, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    1.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ORST made the numbers' call on 1 of 4
  1. Q1 10:53ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:07ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:35ORE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:33ORST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    13.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    13.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:00ORE Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:57ORST Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    4.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.7%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:28ORST Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    11.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    10.5%−0.9
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:14ORE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:08ORST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    4.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5874% → 75%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
74.1%
Anthony Brown run for 12 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
74.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kris Hutson for 5 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+13
74.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kris Hutson for 13 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
74.0%
Travis Dye run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+7
74.0%
Travis Dye run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
74.0%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Troy FranklinSimilar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+7
74.0%
Anthony Brown run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+2
73.8%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q1 10:53
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+20
74.7%
Travis Dye 20 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 3:0126% → 25%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
74.4%
B.J. Baylor run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+6
74.2%
B.J. Baylor run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
74.3%
Trey Lowe run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+3
74.3%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Luke Musgrave for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 5
50
-2
74.3%
B.J. Baylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q1 7:46
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
74.8%
Luke Loecher punt for 48 yds, downed at the Oregn 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3TD
7 plays · 96 yds · 3:3475% → 79%
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
74.8%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the Oregn 7Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+3
74.8%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the Oregn 10Similar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 4
OWN 10
+20
74.7%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Dye for 20 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
75.1%
Anthony Brown run for 13 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
75.7%
Byron Cardwell run for 2 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+5
75.8%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Spencer Webb for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 3
50
+50
79.2%
Devon Williams 50 Yd pass from Anthony Brown (Camden Lewis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 3:3322% → 24%
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
78.0%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Luke Musgrave for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
50
+1
77.9%
B.J. Baylor run for 1 yd to the Oregn 49Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
78.3%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Trevon Bradford, broken up by Jackson LaDukeSimilar
Q1 2:38
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+11
78.1%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 11 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
77.8%
B.J. Baylor run for 15 yds to the Oregn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
77.4%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Anthony GouldSimilar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
77.7%
B.J. Baylor run for 3 yds to the Oregn 20Similar
Q1 0:28
3RD & 7
OPP 20
0
78.1%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Tyjon LindseySimilar
Q1 0:24
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+38
76.2%
Everett Hayes 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5FG
16 plays · 61 yds · 7:0477% → 82%
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
76.9%
Anthony Brown run for 6 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+1
77.1%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the Oregn 28Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+6
76.7%
Seven McGee run for 6 yds to the Oregn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
78.1%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+13
78.5%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Devon Williams for 13 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
79.2%
Byron Cardwell run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+18
79.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Devon Williams for 18 yds to the OrgSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
79.6%
Anthony Brown run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 7
OPP 28
0
80.2%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Kris HutsonSimilar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+8
79.7%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Dye for 8 yds to the OrgSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
80.2%
Travis Dye run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 12
OPP 22
0
80.3%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Kris HutsonSimilar
Q2 8:49
3RD & 12
OPP 22
-5
79.8%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Jackson Powers-Johnson) to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 17
OPP 27
+9
79.5%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Dont'e Thornton for 9 yds to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q2 8:06
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+36
81.7%
Camden Lewis 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:1319% → 18%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
81.5%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Luke Musgrave for 11 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
81.4%
Trevon Bradford run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+2
81.8%
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
82.1%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q2 5:47
4TH & 9
OWN 37
+16
82.5%
Luke Loecher punt for 49 yds , Seven McGee returns for 16 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7TD
16 plays · 70 yds · 5:0483% → 94%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
82.9%
Travis Dye run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 29Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+14
83.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Devon Williams for 14 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
84.1%
Anthony Brown run for 4 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+5
84.3%
Anthony Brown run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q2 3:03
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+3
84.2%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
85.3%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Troy FranklinSimilar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+10
85.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Devon Williams for 10 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
86.1%
Anthony Brown run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 5
OPP 30
0
86.3%
Travis Dye run for no gain to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+7
86.9%
Anthony Brown run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
86.3%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Kris Hutson, broken up by Jaydon GrantSimilar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+13
86.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Troy Franklin for 13 yds to the OrgSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
94.4%
Anthony Brown 10 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8INT
9 plays · 34 yds · 0:317% → 8%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
92.7%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Luke Musgrave for 2 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
92.5%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 7 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
92.1%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 9 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
92.1%
Chance Nolan run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 3
50
+9
91.3%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 9 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
91.6%
Chance Nolan pass intercepted, touchback. Trikweze Bridges return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 4:157% → 14%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
92.8%
B.J. Baylor run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+10
92.7%
B.J. Baylor run for 10 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
92.9%
Trey Lowe run for 7 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+8
92.9%
Trey Lowe run for 8 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+27
92.8%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 27 yds to the Oregn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 0
OPP 5
-10
92.6%
Baylor, B.J. rush for 2 yards to the OREGON3, PENALTY OREGONST holding (Eldridge, Nathan) 10 yards to the OREGON15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+12
93.7%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for 12 yds to the Oregn 3Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
93.5%
Jack Colletto run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 4Similar
Q3 10:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
94.2%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Tyjon LindseySimilar
Q3 10:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
85.9%
Luke Musgrave 4 Yd pass from Chance Nolan (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 4:1589% → 90%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.7%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kris Hutson for no gain to the Oregn 25Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.0%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Devon Williams for 5 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
89.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Dye for 6 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
90.1%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-5
90.6%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Steven Jones) to the Oregn 35Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+5
90.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 5 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-2
90.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Troy Franklin for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 38Similar
Q3 6:10
4TH & 8
OWN 38
+8
90.1%
Tom Snee punt for 36 yds , Trevon Bradford returns for 8 yds to the OrgSt 46 OREGON ST Penalty, Illegal Block (15 Yards) to the OrgSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:0011% → 9%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
89.3%
B.J. Baylor run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 2
OWN 27
0
88.8%
B.J. Baylor run for no gain to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+5
89.5%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Luke Musgrave for 5 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
89.3%
Trey Lowe run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+1
89.6%
B.J. Baylor run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
90.0%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Champ Flemings, broken up by Verone McKinley IIISimilar
Q3 3:03
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
90.6%
Luke Loecher punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Seven McGee at the Oregn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 5:5393% → 99%
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
93.3%
Anthony Brown run for 3 yds to the Oregn 18Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+6
93.4%
Travis Dye run for 6 yds to the Oregn 24Similar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+4
93.6%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the Oregn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
93.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 14 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
94.5%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Alex Forsyth) to the Oregn 37Similar
Q3 0:06
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+3
94.3%
Anthony Brown run for 3 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+12
94.5%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kris Hutson for 12 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
94.8%
Travis Dye run for 16 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
95.2%
Anthony Brown run for no gain to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+25
95.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kris Hutson for 25 yds to the OrgSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
98.8%
Kris Hutson 7 Yd pass from Anthony Brown (Camden Lewis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:541% → 7%
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
98.7%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Luke Musgrave for 35 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
98.7%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Offside (Adrian Jackson) to the Oregn 35Similar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 5
OPP 35
+21
98.5%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 21 yds to the Oregn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
98.6%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trey Lowe for 5 yds to the Oregn 9 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (Kayvon Thibodeaux) to the Oregn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
93.1%
B.J. Baylor 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14TD
7 plays · 48 yds · 1:216% → 14%
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
94.1%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Tre'Shaun HarrisonSimilar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
94.1%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Teagan QuitorianoSimilar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+15
94.6%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 15 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
93.8%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 15 yds to the Oregn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
93.6%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 3 yds to the Oregn 15Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+15
85.9%
Trevon Bradford 15 Yd pass from Chance Nolan (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:0891% → 99%
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.5%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
90.8%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (T.J. Bass) to the Oregn 22Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+5
90.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Dye for 5 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+20
90.7%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kris Hutson for 20 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
92.6%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+15
92.8%
Travis Dye run for 15 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
93.3%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu) to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q4 4:37
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+6
93.0%
Byron Cardwell run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+1
94.2%
Byron Cardwell run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+31
94.1%
Byron Cardwell run for 31 yds to the OrgSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.7%
Travis Dye 1 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)Similar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-10
98.8%
Lewis, Camden kick attempt good, PENALTY OREGON holding (Shults, Cooper) 10 yards to the OREGONST13, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 2:022% → 9%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.0%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 6 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+12
97.9%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Champ Flemings for 12 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
97.9%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+10
97.9%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Anthony Gould for 10 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
97.9%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trey Lowe for 13 yds to the Oregn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
97.6%
Nolan, Chance pass complete to Beason, Zeriah for 4 yards to the OREGON30, PENALTY OREGON offside (Thibodeaux, Kayvon) 5 yards to the OREGON29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 5
OPP 29
0
97.4%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Trey LoweSimilar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 5
OPP 29
-5
97.4%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (Joshua Gray) to the Oregn 34Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+17
97.5%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trey Lowe for 17 yds to the Oregn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
97.3%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to B.J. BaylorSimilar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
97.4%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Tre'Shaun HarrisonSimilar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
97.7%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Trey LoweSimilar
Q4 1:20
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+16
97.8%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 16 yds to the Oregn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.9%
Chance Nolan 1 Yd Run (Chance Nolan Pass to Zeriah Beason for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 0
OPP 3
+2
90.8%
Nolan, Chance pass attempt failed, PENALTY OREGON holding (Manning, Dontae) 2 yards to the OREGON1, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17END OF GAME
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:4297% → 97%
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
96.8%
Anthony Brown run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+1
96.9%
Byron Cardwell run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:33
Luke Musgrave 4 Yd pass from Chance Nolan (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-8.4
TD · Q2 0:35
Anthony Brown 10 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)
+7.7
TD · Q4 8:28
Trevon Bradford 15 Yd pass from Chance Nolan (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com