Try the model
CAL

California 14 at UCLA 42

UCLA
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2021 · Rose Bowl
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:00: Chase Garbers run for 1 yd for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK) — CAL win probability +8.9 pts (now 45%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:26: Kazmeir Allen run for 8 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK) — UCLA win probability +11.3 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:19: Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Greg Dulcich for 29 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK) — UCLA win probability +11.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 2:25: Nicholas Barr-Mira 46 yd FG GOOD — UCLA win probability +6.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:10: Zach Charbonnet run for 1 yd for a TD Timeout UCLA, clock 13:10 (Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass to Zach Charbonnet for Two-Point Conversion) — UCLA win probability +6.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CAL made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
  1. Q1 13:02CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:33UCLA 4th & 6 at CAL 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    67.1%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:00CAL 4th & 4 at UCLA 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    32.0%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    31.9%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:52UCLA 4th & 9 at CAL 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    67.3%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:29UCLA 4th & 11 at UCLA 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−2.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:28CAL 4th & 2 at CAL 38, down 3
    Close callPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:51CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:25UCLA 4th & 12 at CAL 28, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−1.4
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    77.1%−5.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:29CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 31, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:34CAL 4th & 16 at UCLA 39, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%
    36% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:47CAL 4th & 7 at UCLA 28, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:47CAL 4th & 11 at UCLA 22, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:45CAL 4th & 1 at UCLA 1, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5CAL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 14:10UCLA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:58CAL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:00CAL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:26UCLA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:19UCLA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:10UCLA Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    96.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:53UCLA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5835% → 35%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.9%
Chase Garbers run for no gain to the Cal 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
64.9%
Chase Garbers run for 3 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
64.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 6 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q1 13:02
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
64.8%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:2965% → 65%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
64.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 5 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+6
64.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for 6 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
64.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 12 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
65.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCLA 49Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 14
OWN 49
+24
64.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Greg Dulcich for 24 yds to the Cal 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
65.1%
Zach Charbonnet run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 28Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+5
65.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 5 yds to the Cal 23Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
65.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:33
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+41
65.3%
Nicholas Barr-Mira 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2535% → 35%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
64.7%
Chase Garbers run for 1 yd to the UCLA 40Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+5
64.7%
Christopher Brooks run for 5 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 4
OPP 35
0
64.7%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:00
4TH & 4
OPP 35
0
65.0%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:0865% → 65%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
65.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+19
65.0%
Zach Charbonnet run for 19 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
65.7%
Zach Charbonnet run for 4 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+2
65.7%
Zach Charbonnet run for 2 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 4
OPP 40
-5
65.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 45Similar
Q1 5:52
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
64.8%
Luke Akers punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5INT
6 plays · 31 yds · 2:3735% → 34%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
65.3%
Christopher Brooks run for 5 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+6
65.1%
Chase Garbers run for 6 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
65.2%
Christopher Brooks run for 8 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+12
64.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brooks for 12 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
64.2%
Chase Garbers pass intercepted return for no gain to the Cal 40Similar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
66.2%
THOMPSON-ROBINSON, Dorian pass to the right incomplete intended for NORWOOD, Josiah thrown to the CAL0. PENALTY UCL Holding on ANDERSON, Alec enforced 10 yards from the CAL40 to the UCL50 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6TD
9 plays · 40 yds · 4:0566% → 70%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 20
50
+1
65.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for 1 yd to the Cal 49Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 19
OPP 49
+5
65.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for 5 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 14
OPP 44
+22
65.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 22 yds to the Cal 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
66.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+4
66.4%
Zach Charbonnet run for 4 yds to the Cal 18Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+6
66.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 6 yds to the Cal 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
66.4%
Zach Charbonnet run for 9 yds to the Cal 3Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 3
-1
66.4%
Zach Charbonnet run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 4Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
70.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 4 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:1230% → 38%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.7%
Chase Garbers sacked by Tyler Manoa for 0 yards to the Cal 22Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
69.9%
Christopher Brooks run for no gain to the Cal 22Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+26
70.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 26 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
68.7%
Christopher Brooks run for 8 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+1
68.2%
Christopher Brooks run for 1 yd to the UCLA 43Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+4
68.3%
Christopher Brooks run for 4 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
68.4%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+14
68.4%
Marcel Dancy run for 14 yds to the UCLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
67.6%
Chase Garbers run for 6 yds to the UCLA 19Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+5
67.6%
Christopher Brooks run for 5 yds to the UCLA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
61.8%
Christopher Brooks run for 14 yds for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8TD
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:5438% → 45%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
61.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 1 yd to the UCLA 12Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+4
61.8%
Christopher Brooks run for 4 yds to the UCLA 8Similar
Q2 7:38
3RD & 5
OPP 8
-5
62.7%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Delay Of Game (Chase Garbers) to the UCLA 13Similar
Q2 7:38
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+12
63.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 12 yds to the UCLA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
54.7%
Chase Garbers run for 1 yd for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 9TD
15 plays · 64 yds · 6:2959% → 69%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
58.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for 1 yd to the UCLA 37Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+9
58.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for 9 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
60.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 5 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+2
60.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 2 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+5
60.1%
Zach Charbonnet run for 5 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
60.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 8 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+3
61.7%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
61.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 6 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+3
59.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Greg Dulcich for 3 yds to the Cal 22Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+2
58.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 2 yds to the Cal 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
59.8%
Zach Charbonnet run for 11 yds to the Cal 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
57.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for 1 yd to the Cal 8Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
69.2%
Kazmeir Allen run for 8 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10INT
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:0832% → 33%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
67.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 12 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
66.9%
Chase Garbers pass intercepted return for no gain to the Cal 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
69.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2765% → 64%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
65.4%
Zach Charbonnet run for 5 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 5
OWN 27
-6
65.7%
Zach Charbonnet run for a loss of 6 yards to the UCLA 21Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 11
OWN 21
0
63.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:29
4TH & 11
OWN 21
0
64.4%
Luke Akers punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0135% → 34%
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
65.1%
Christopher Brooks run for 3 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
64.7%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
65.9%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:29
4TH & 7
OWN 33
+5
67.2%
UCLA Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the Cal 38Similar
Q3 12:28
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
65.8%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 33 yds, downed at the UCLA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14TD
4 plays · 71 yds · 1:0967% → 81%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+20
66.8%
Zach Charbonnet run for 20 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
68.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 7 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+15
69.4%
THOMPSON-ROBINSON, Dorian pass to the left incomplete intended for DULCICH, Greg thrown to the CAL25. PENALTY CAL Pass Interference on HEARNS III, Lu-Magia enforced 15 yards to the CAL29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
80.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Greg Dulcich for 29 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 3:2822% → 19%
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
78.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brooks for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 23Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
78.3%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+13
79.3%
Chase Garbers run for 13 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
77.4%
Chase Garbers run for 2 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+4
77.1%
Christopher Brooks run for 4 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
77.0%
Chase Garbers sacked by Jordan Genmark Heath for 0 yards to the Cal 36Similar
Q3 7:51
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
80.8%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 64 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16FG
14 plays · 52 yds · 7:2280% → 91%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
80.0%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the UCLA 23Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
79.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 6 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
79.7%
Zach Charbonnet run for 2 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
80.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+6
80.1%
Keegan Jones run for 6 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+5
80.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 5 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
81.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Greg Dulcich for 5 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+15
82.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for 15 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
83.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 12 yds to the Cal 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 14
OPP 30
+2
82.7%
Zach Charbonnet run for 2 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 12
OPP 28
0
82.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:25
4TH & 12
OPP 28
+46
89.2%
Nicholas Barr-Mira 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
91.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 1 yd to the Cal 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5614% → 12%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
86.4%
Marcel Dancy run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 21Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+7
86.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 7 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
86.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 3 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q3 0:29
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
88.1%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 49 yds , Kyle Philips returns for no gain to the UCLA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 18TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 1:5092% → 99%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
92.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Greg Dulcich for 9 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+15
92.4%
Kazmeir Allen run for 15 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
93.0%
THOMPSON-ROBINSON, Dorian pass to the right incomplete intended for DULCICH, Greg thrown to the UCL47. PENALTY UCL Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on CLEMENS, Duke enforced 5 yards from the UCL44 to the UCL39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+27
92.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for 27 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
93.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+33
93.0%
Kazmeir Allen run for 33 yds to the Cal 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.1%
Zach Charbonnet run for 1 yd for a TD Timeout UCLA, clock 13:10 (Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass to Zach Charbonnet for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19DOWNS
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:252% → 2%
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
97.9%
Chase Garbers run for 3 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
97.8%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
98.1%
Chase Garbers sacked by Bo Calvert for 0 yards to the UCLA 39Similar
Q4 11:34
4TH & 16
OPP 39
0
98.5%
Chase Garbers sacked by Mitchell Agude for 0 yards to the UCLA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 20TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 2:41100% → 100%
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
99.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for 4 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+11
99.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 11 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+16
99.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Greg Dulcich for 16 yds to the Cal 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
99.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
99.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for 1 yd to the Cal 24Similar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+20
99.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 20 yds to the Cal 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 4 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21DOWNS
19 plays · 74 yds · 6:020% → 0%
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.9%
Chase Garbers run for 7 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
99.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 8 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
99.9%
GARBERS, Chase pass to the right incomplete intended for CLARK, Trevon thrown to the UCL25. PENALTY UCL Pass Interference on KIRKWOOD, Devin enforced 15 yards to the UCL45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+14
99.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 14 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
99.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 1 yd to the UCLA 30Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+2
99.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 2 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 7
OPP 28
0
99.9%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:47
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+7
99.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 7 yds to the UCLA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 14
OPP 25
+3
99.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 3 yds to the UCLA 22Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 11
OPP 22
0
99.9%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:47
4TH & 11
OPP 22
+13
99.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 13 yds to the UCLA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.9%
Chris Street run for no gain to the UCLA 9Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.9%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
99.9%
GARBERS, Chase pass to the left incomplete intended for STURDIVANT, J.Michael thrown to the UCL0. PENALTY UCL Pass Interference on KIRKWOOD, Devin enforced 7 yards to the UCL2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.8%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.8%
Damien Moore run for 1 yd to the UCLA 1Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.8%
Chase Garbers run for no gain to the UCLA 1Similar
Q4 2:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 22END OF 4TH QUARTER
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:36100% → 100%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
100.0%
Ethan Garbers run for 2 yds to the UCLA 3Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+4
100.0%
Ethan Fernea run for 4 yds to the UCLA 7Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+10
100.0%
Ethan Fernea run for 10 yds to the UCLA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
100.0%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 15Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 15
-2
100.0%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:26
Kazmeir Allen run for 8 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)
+11.3
TD · Q3 11:19
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Greg Dulcich for 29 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)
+11.2
TD · Q2 7:00
Chase Garbers run for 1 yd for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK)
-8.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com