2021 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2021 · Husky Stadium
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Win probability · WASH
modelWASH aheadWSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWASH scoreWSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:26 · Race Porter punt for 45 yds , Travell Harris returns for no gain to the WshSt 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime per score still needed
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:31: Kamari Pleasant run for 10 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +11.5 pts (now 47%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:37: Max Borghi run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +14.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:23: Deon McIntosh run for 2 yds for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +5.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:55: Sam Huard pass complete to Rome Odunze for 16 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — WASH win probability +5.9 pts (now 9%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- FG · Q4 8:35: Dean Janikowski 39 yd FG GOOD — WSU win probability +3.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WASH made the numbers' call on 6 of 6WSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
- Q1 10:17WASH 4th & 12 at WASH 11, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snapGo for it47.5%−0.421% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.9%average punt
- Q1 10:17WASH 4th & 12 at WASH 11, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snapGo for it47.5%−0.421% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.9%average punt
- Q1 4:16WSU 4th & 14 at WASH 14, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.7% before the snapGo for it52.8%−0.816% to convertField goalTheir call53.5%84% to makePunt51.1%−2.4average punt
- Q1 1:57WASH 4th & 6 at WASH 29, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snapGo for it43.0%−0.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.1%average punt
- Q2 11:58WSU 4th & 5 at WASH 49, up 10Close callPunted · 57.5% before the snapGo for it57.7%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 6:32WSU 4th & 8 at WASH 8, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.6% before the snapGo for it60.9%−0.326% to convertField goalTheir call61.2%90% to makePunt58.2%−3.0average punt
- Q2 4:37WASH 4th & 1 at WASH 49, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call35.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt34.1%−1.4average punt
- Q3 13:26WASH 4th & 4 at WASH 31, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.8% before the snapGo for it41.1%−1.048% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.0%average punt
- Q3 3:55WSU 4th & 4 at WASH 24, up 13Close callKicked a field goal · 83.5% before the snapGo for it83.3%47% to convertField goalTheir call82.8%−0.568% to makePunt75.4%−7.9average punt
- Q4 8:35WSU 4th & 2 at WASH 22, up 17Close callKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snapGo for it94.3%57% to convertField goalTheir call93.8%−0.572% to makePunt90.6%−3.7average punt
- Q4 5:22WASH 4th & 23 at WSU 49, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.17% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WASH made the numbers' call on 1 of 2WSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 11:27WSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.2%97% to makeGo for two51.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:31WASH Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call38.6%97% to makeGo for two38.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:37WSU Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.8%97% to makeGo for two74.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:23WSU Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.5%97% to makeGo for two97.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:55WASH Touchdown, down 17 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick8.0%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call7.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:23WSU Touchdown, up 26 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.8%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWSUDrive 1TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2450% → 51%
Q1 13:36
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+17
50.3%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 17 yds to the WshSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+12
50.1%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 12 yds to the Wash 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
50.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Travell Harris for 5 yds to the Wash 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 2PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 0:4349% → 49%
WSUDrive 3FG11 plays · 59 yds · 5:5251% → 53%
Q1 9:26
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+7
48.5%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 7 yds to the WshSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
47.8%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Deon McIntosh for 8 yds to the WshSt 49Similar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
47.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 9 yds to the Wash 36Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+27
47.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 27 yds to the Wash 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 2:0247% → 44%
Q1 2:39
3RD & 24
OWN 11
+18
44.7%
Sam Huard pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 18 yds to the Wash 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 5PUNT10 plays · 31 yds · 4:4955% → 57%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
45.3%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 11 yds to the WshSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+12
44.7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 12 yds to the WshSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
43.4%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Travell Harris) to the WshSt 38Similar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 18
OWN 38
+8
43.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 8 yds to the WshSt 46Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+6
43.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 6 yds to the Wash 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 6INT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4642% → 41%
WSUDrive 7FG9 plays · 26 yds · 4:1859% → 65%
Q2 10:15
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+10
40.1%
(10:22) de Laura,Jayden pass complete to Harris,Travell for 8 yards to the UW 19 (Heimuli,Daniel) PENALTY WSU Holding (Fifita,Ma'ake) 10 yards from UW 27 to UW 37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
39.8%
(09:10) Borghi,Max rush for 1 yard gain to the UW 20 (Trice,Bralen) PENALTY UW Face Mask (Trice,Bralen) 11 yard from UW 21 to UW 10, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 8TD12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0136% → 47%
WSUDrive 9MISSED FG11 plays · 45 yds · 1:2460% → 65%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
40.0%
PENALTY UW UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting WSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
40.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 8 yds to the WshSt 32Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+8
38.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 8 yds to the WshSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+10
37.5%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Max Borghi for 10 yds to the Wash 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
37.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Max Borghi for 3 yds to the Wash 44Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+13
35.7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 13 yds to the Wash 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2443% → 41%
Q3 13:26
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
41.3%
Race Porter punt for 45 yds , Travell Harris returns for no gain to the WshSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 11TD12 plays · 78 yds · 5:3960% → 78%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
39.8%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 15 yds to the WshSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
37.8%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 19 yds to the Wash 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
35.1%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Travell Harris for 3 yds to the Wash 25Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+7
34.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 7 yds to the Wash 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+3
33.3%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 3 yds to the Wash 13Similar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
21.8%
PENALTY UW Personal Foul (Martin,Jeremiah) 15 yards from WSU35 to WSU50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 12INT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:3826% → 24%
WSUDrive 13FG7 plays · 17 yds · 2:4883% → 86%
Q3 6:31
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
17.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Travell Harris for 5 yds to the Wash 36Similar
Q3 5:51
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+6
16.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 6 yds to the Wash 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 12
OPP 32
+8
15.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Deon McIntosh for 8 yds to the Wash 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 14INT3 plays · 55 yds · 0:4817% → 19%
WSUDrive 15TD10 plays · 29 yds · 3:1989% → 97%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
8.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 5 yds to the Wash 14Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
8.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Travell Harris for 4 yds to the Wash 2Similar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
3.0%
PENALTY WSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (McIntosh,Deon) 15 yards from WSU35 to WSU20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 16TD9 plays · 50 yds · 2:064% → 9%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
50
0
3.6%
Sam Huard pass complete to Sean McGrew for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 10
50
+12
3.3%
Sam Huard pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 12 yds to the WshSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+10
3.7%
Sam Huard pass complete to Sean McGrew for 10 yds to the WshSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
3.5%
Sam Huard pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 4 yds to the WshSt 16Similar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+16
9.4%
Sam Huard pass complete to Rome Odunze for 16 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 17FG9 plays · 16 yds · 3:1294% → 98%
WASHDrive 18INT TD2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 19PUNT13 plays · 26 yds · 2:380% → 0%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.2%
Sam Huard pass complete to Kamari Pleasant for 3 yds to the Wash 28Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
0.2%
Sam Huard pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 9 yds to the Wash 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:53
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+6
0.2%
Sam Huard pass complete to Jack Westover for 6 yds to the Wash 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
0.2%
Sam Huard pass complete to Kamari Pleasant for 8 yds to the WshSt 43Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+22
0.2%
Sam Huard pass complete to for 7 yds to the WshSt 36 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Targeting (15 Yards) to the WshSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 20END OF GAME9 plays · 54 yds · 5:10100% → 100%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
0.2%
PENALTY UW UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Heimuli,Daniel) 15 yards from WSU27 to WSU42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:37
Max Borghi run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK)
-14.1
TD · Q2 1:31
Kamari Pleasant run for 10 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)
+11.5
TD · Q4 11:55
Sam Huard pass complete to Rome Odunze for 16 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+5.9