Try the model
UCLA

UCLA 62 at USC 33

USC
2021 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2021 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadUCLA aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreUCLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:32 · Nicholas Barr-Mira 46 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 128Home team on offense−28.2Score differential−12.8Garbage-time factor−7.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.1Pregame prior−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:31: Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 58 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK) — UCLA win probability +8.6 pts (now 66%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:13: Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 4 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK) — UCLA win probability +12.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:23: Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds for a TD (Alex Stadthaus KICK) — USC win probability +11.0 pts (now 34%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:36: Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 11 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK) — UCLA win probability +13.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:09: Jaxson Dart pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 44 yds for a TD (J. Dart Run For Two-point Conversion) — USC win probability +15.5 pts (now 32%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 7 of 8UCLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 10:56USC 4th & 6 at UCLA 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    43.2%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:01USC 4th & 7 at UCLA 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    45.0%−0.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:38UCLA 4th & 3 at UCLA 43, down 3
    Close callPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:25USC 4th & 20 at USC 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−2.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:36USC 4th & 13 at USC 29, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−1.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:35USC 4th & 5 at UCLA 28, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.7%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    22.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    18.7%−3.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:02USC 4th & 5 at UCLA 5, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−8.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:32UCLA 4th & 17 at USC 28, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−2.5
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    80.2%−6.3
    average punt
  9. Q4 7:07USC 4th & 2 at UCLA 37, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%−0.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:50USC 4th & 21 at USC 14, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 2 of 4UCLA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 4:32UCLA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:10USC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:33UCLA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:31UCLA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:13UCLA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:23USC Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:36UCLA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:09USC Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    26.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    26.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:48USC Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.7%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 3:47UCLA Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:09UCLA Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1FG
10 plays · 63 yds · 3:4246% → 47%
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
45.5%
Jaxson Dart run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 23Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+11
45.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 11 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
45.8%
Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
46.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 14 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
46.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+32
46.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 32 yds to the UCLA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
46.8%
Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds to the UCLA 12Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 6
OPP 12
0
47.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 6
OPP 12
0
46.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:56
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+29
47.0%
Alex Stadthaus 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:1753% → 53%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
46.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for 2 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
47.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass intercepted return for no gain to the USC 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1547% → 47%
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
47.4%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Jordan Genmark Heath for 0 yards to the USC 33Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 19
OWN 33
+4
47.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 4 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 15
OWN 37
+5
47.2%
DART, Jaxson pass to the right incomplete intended for WASHINGTON, Tahj thrown to the UCL26. PENALTY UCL Offsides on IRBY, Martell enforced 5 yards from the USC37 to the USC42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
47.3%
Jaxson Dart pass intercepted return for no gain to the UCLA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:5553% → 52%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
47.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 34Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+5
48.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 5 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
47.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass intercepted return for no gain to the UCLA 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3449% → 48%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
48.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 3 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
48.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
48.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:01
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
48.0%
Ben Griffiths punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kyle Philips at the UCLA 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6TD
9 plays · 94 yds · 2:2451% → 55%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-5
48.6%
UCLA Penalty, Sideline Interference (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 4Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 11
OWN 5
0
48.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:27
3RD & 11
OWN 5
+12
49.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 12 yds to the UCLA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
48.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+1
48.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 1 yd to the UCLA 18Similar
Q1 5:26
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+37
49.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Greg Dulcich for 37 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
48.0%
UCLA Penalty, Illegal Snap on CLEMENS, Duke enforced (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 15
50
+5
48.6%
Zach Charbonnet run for 5 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+45
45.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 45 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7TD
10 plays · 63 yds · 3:5946% → 52%
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
46.2%
Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+7
47.0%
Keaontay Ingram run for 7 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
47.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-2
47.0%
Keaontay Ingram run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 46Similar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+16
45.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 16 yds to the UCLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
47.5%
Keaontay Ingram run for 7 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+1
48.1%
Keaontay Ingram run for 1 yd to the UCLA 30Similar
Q1 1:14
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+18
47.4%
Keaontay Ingram run for 18 yds to the UCLA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
48.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the UCLA 7Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+7
52.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for 7 yds for a TD (Alex Stadthaus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:2250% → 49%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
50.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for 9 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
49.7%
Zach Charbonnet run for 2 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
50.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
50.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for 7 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
49.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:38
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
50.7%
Luke Akers punt for 48 yds, fair catch by K.D. Nixon at the USC 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 1:5850% → 50%
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
50.4%
Darwin Barlow run for 3 yds to the USC 12Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+6
50.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Kyle Ford for 6 yds to the USC 18Similar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+7
50.0%
Darwin Barlow run for 7 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
50.8%
Darwin Barlow run for 4 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-15
50.6%
DART, Jaxson pass to the right complete for 31 yards to WASHINGTON, Tahj caught at the UCL40 and advanced to the UCL40, End of Play. PENALTY USC Pass Interference on WASHINGTON, Tahj enforced 15 yards to the USC14 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
50.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:25
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
49.7%
Ben Griffiths punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kyle Philips at the UCLA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 1:3750% → 56%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
50.4%
Zach Charbonnet run for 4 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+8
50.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 8 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+20
49.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kam Brown for 20 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
49.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 2 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+1
49.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 1 yd to the USC 23Similar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+23
44.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 23 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11Uncategorized
7 plays · 3 yds · 2:0046% → 43%
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
45.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 3 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-7
46.0%
DART, Jaxson pass to the right complete for 7 yards to WASHINGTON, Tahj caught at the USC30 and advanced to the USC35 (JOHNSON, Caleb). PENALTY USC Pass Interference on MCREE, Lake enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards to the USC14 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+5
45.5%
DART, Jaxson pass to the right incomplete intended for WASHINGTON, Tahj thrown to the UCL45. PENALTY UCL Offsides on JONES, JR., Carl enforced 5 yards from the USC14 to the USC19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 16
OWN 19
-5
45.5%
DART, Jaxson pass to the right complete for 24 yards to JACKSON III, Michael caught at the USC43 and advanced to the USC43 (JOHNSON, Cameron). PENALTY USC Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on MCREE, Lake enforced 5 yards from the USC19 to the USC14 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+14
44.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Lake McRee for 14 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q2 7:25
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
43.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:14
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-15
43.3%
GRIFFITHS, Ben punt 60 yards to the UCL12, PHILIPS, Kyle return 13 yards to the UCL25, End of Play. PENALTY USC Personal Foul on JOHNSON, Damon enforced 15 yards after the change of possession from the UCL25 to the UCL40. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12TD
2 plays · 60 yds · 0:2857% → 66%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
42.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for 2 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+58
34.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 58 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 2:3235% → 31%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
34.5%
Keaontay Ingram run for 7 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+2
34.9%
Keaontay Ingram run for 2 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+2
34.3%
Keaontay Ingram run for 2 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
34.5%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Ale Kaho for 0 yards to the USC 24Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 18
OWN 24
+5
33.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Lake McRee for 5 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 13
OWN 29
0
32.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:36
4TH & 13
OWN 29
0
31.2%
Ben Griffiths punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kyle Philips at the UCLA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 1:1467% → 82%
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+27
32.6%
Zach Charbonnet run for 27 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
31.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for 13 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+26
30.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Michael Ezeike for 26 yds to the USC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
30.3%
Keegan Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 4Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
18.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 4 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 1:4322% → 34%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+22
22.0%
Keaontay Ingram run for 22 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
23.3%
Keaontay Ingram run for 12 yds to the UCLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
24.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+5
23.8%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 5
OPP 28
0
23.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+9
22.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jude Wolfe for 9 yds to the UCLA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+16
23.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Kyle Ford for 16 yds to the UCLA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
34.2%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds for a TD (Alex Stadthaus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:0670% → 71%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
29.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for 6 yds to the UCLA 26Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+14
29.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kam Brown for 14 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 3:0169% → 86%
Q3 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
31.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for 11 yds to the UCLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
30.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for 14 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
29.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 6 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+8
29.2%
Zach Charbonnet run for 8 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+25
29.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 25 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
28.4%
Zach Charbonnet run for 6 yds to the USC 8Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 4
OPP 8
-3
27.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 11Similar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+11
14.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 11 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18FG
17 plays · 65 yds · 6:0618% → 21%
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
17.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 29Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+15
17.2%
UCLA Penalty, Personal Foul (Mitchell Agude) to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
18.5%
Keaontay Ingram run for 6 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+6
18.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 6 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
18.4%
Jaxson Dart run for 4 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 6
OPP 39
-1
18.5%
Keaontay Ingram run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 40Similar
Q3 8:54
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+15
17.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for 15 yds to the UCLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
18.8%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the UCLA 21Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+7
18.5%
Vavae Malepeai run for 7 yds to the UCLA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
17.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds to the UCLA 12Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+2
17.6%
Keaontay Ingram run for 2 yds to the UCLA 10Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+9
16.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 9 yds to the UCLA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
17.7%
Jaxson Dart run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCLA 5Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
16.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
16.2%
Vavae Malepeai run for no gain to the UCLA 5Similar
Q3 5:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
21.0%
Alex Stadthaus 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 19MISSED FG
7 plays · 47 yds · 2:1286% → 88%
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
14.1%
Zach Charbonnet run for 1 yd to the UCLA 26Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+38
13.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Greg Dulcich for 38 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
12.1%
THOMPSON-ROBINSON, Dorian pass to the right incomplete intended for BROWN, Kam thrown to the USC0. PENALTY USC Pass Interference on TAYLOR-STUART, Isaac enforced 15 yards to the USC21 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
11.7%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the USC 18Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 7
OPP 18
-3
11.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 21Similar
Q3 3:08
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
11.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by Tuli Tuipulotu for 0 yards to the USC 28Similar
Q3 2:32
4TH & 17
OPP 28
+46
12.2%
Nicholas Barr-Mira 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20TD
2 plays · 72 yds · 0:0416% → 32%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+28
16.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 28 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
31.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 44 yds for a TD (J. Dart Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21INT
5 plays · 47 yds · 0:4216% → 19%
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
15.4%
Darwin Barlow run for 10 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+37
15.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 37 yds to the UCLA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
19.1%
Jaxson Dart pass intercepted return for no gain to the UCLA 2Similar
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
19.1%
Jaxson Dart pass intercepted return for no gain to the UCLA 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 22TD
12 plays · 98 yds · 5:4392% → 99%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+13
8.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kam Brown for 13 yds to the UCLA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
7.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 11 yds to the UCLA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
7.7%
Zach Charbonnet run for 2 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+9
7.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for 9 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
7.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 8 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+8
6.0%
Zach Charbonnet run for 8 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+22
5.8%
Zach Charbonnet run for 22 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
5.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 12 yds to the USC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
5.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 3 yds to the USC 10Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+1
4.8%
Zach Charbonnet run for 1 yd to the USC 9Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 6
OPP 9
0
4.9%
USC Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness ( Yards) to the USC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
1.3%
Zach Charbonnet run for 4 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:042% → 9%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
2.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 24Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
2.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Kyle Ford for 7 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+14
2.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 14 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
2.3%
DART, Jaxson pass to the right incomplete intended for WASHINGTON, Tahj broken up by SHAW, Jay at the USC50. PENALTY UCL Holding on SHAW, Jay enforced 10 yards from the USC45 to the UCL45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
2.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 5 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 5
OPP 40
-1
2.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 41Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+4
2.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 4 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
Q4 7:07
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+3
1.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 3 yds to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+33
1.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 33 yds to the UCLA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
8.5%
Vavae Malepeai run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Stadthaus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 24TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 2:3396% → 99%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
3.7%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+3
3.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+5
3.2%
Zach Charbonnet run for 5 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
2.6%
Zach Charbonnet run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 15Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+15
0.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 15 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:531% → 1%
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
0.9%
USC Penalty, False Start (Tahj Washington) to the USC 20Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
0.9%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Shea Pitts for 0 yards to the USC 14Similar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 21
OWN 14
0
0.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:50
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
0.9%
Ben Griffiths punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kyle Philips at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 26TD
3 plays · 50 yds · 1:23100% → 100%
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
50
+6
0.5%
Ethan Fernea run for 6 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+2
0.4%
Ethan Fernea run for 2 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+42
0.1%
Ethan Fernea run for 42 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:020% → 0%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 5 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
0.1%
Brandon Campbell run for 11 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
0.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-5
0.1%
USC Penalty, False Start (Liam Jimmons) to the USC 36Similar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+4
0.1%
Brandon Campbell run for 4 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+4
0.1%
Brandon Campbell run for 4 yds to the USC 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:09
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 44 yds for a TD (J. Dart Run For Two-point Conversion)
+15.5
TD · Q3 11:36
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 11 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)
-13.7
TD · Q2 2:13
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 4 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)
-12.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com