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Win probability · UTAH
modelUTAH aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playUTAH scoreORE score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:57 · Camden Lewis 36 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Cole Bishop
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:08: Cameron Rising 1 Yd Run (Jadon Redding Kick) — UTAH win probability +8.0 pts (now 75%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:27: Tavion Thomas 4 Yd Run (Jadon Redding Kick) — UTAH win probability +11.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:00: Britain Covey 78 Yd Punt Return (Jadon Redding Kick) — UTAH win probability +6.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 14:59: Anthony Brown pass complete to Dont'e Thornton for 8 yds to the Oregn 33 — ORE win probability +6.4 pts (now 9%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:02: Devon Williams 36 Yd pass from Anthony Brown (Camden Lewis Kick) — ORE win probability +6.4 pts (now 8%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTAH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ORE made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 12:28UTAH 4th & 15 at ORE 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snapGo for it59.4%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.5%average punt
- Q1 11:02ORE 4th & 8 at ORE 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snapGo for it40.1%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.2%average punt
- Q1 0:57ORE 4th & 7 at UTAH 18, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.4% before the snapGo for it36.0%−0.335% to convertField goalTheir call36.3%79% to makePunt33.4%−3.0average punt
- Q2 12:39UTAH 4th & 17 at UTAH 25, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snapGo for it63.3%−1.613% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.9%average punt
- Q2 9:27ORE 4th & 20 at UTAH 47, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snapGo for it31.5%−2.010% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.5%average punt
- Q2 2:02ORE 4th & 19 at UTAH 23, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.2% before the snapGo for it19.6%−1.610% to convertField goalTheir call21.1%70% to makePunt17.6%−3.5average punt
- Q2 0:00ORE 4th & 3 at ORE 32, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snapGo for it8.9%−0.452% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.2%average punt
- Q4 14:51ORE 4th & 15 at UTAH 36, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−0.117% to convertField goal0.3%42% to makePunt0.2%−0.1average punt
- Q4 7:32UTAH 4th & 8 at ORE 8, up 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.126% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%90% to makePunt99.4%−0.4average punt
- Q4 3:56ORE 4th & 7 at UTAH 9, down 31Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.130% to convertField goal0.1%89% to makePunt-0.0%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTAH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ORE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 4:40UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.7%97% to makeGo for two62.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:08UTAH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.0%97% to makeGo for two76.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:27UTAH Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.1%97% to makeGo for two92.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:00UTAH Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.1%97% to makeGo for two95.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:02ORE Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.4%97% to makeGo for two6.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:56UTAH Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTAHDrive 1PUNT9 plays · 17 yds · 2:2751% → 51%
OREDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2649% → 48%
Q1 11:54
2ND & 9
OWN 17
-5
51.1%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu) to the Oregn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 3TD13 plays · 63 yds · 6:2251% → 57%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4MISSED FG11 plays · 47 yds · 3:3844% → 43%
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
55.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Devon Williams for 9 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
55.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Dye for 6 yds to the Utah 41Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 4
OPP 41
0
55.4%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Kris Hutson OREGON Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu) declinedSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
55.6%
Brown, Anthony pass incomplete to Williams, Devon, PENALTY UTAH pass interference (Phillips III, Clark) 15 yards to the UTAH21, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGON.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 5 yds · 3:1858% → 58%
OREDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 3:1242% → 37%
Q2 11:35
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+8
57.7%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Devon Williams for 8 yds to the Utah 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 8
OPP 35
-12
59.4%
Anthony Brown sacked by Mika Tafua for a loss of 12 yards to the Utah 47Similar
Q2 9:27
4TH & 20
OPP 47
+12
62.6%
Tom Snee punt for 39 yds , Britain Covey returns for 12 yds to the Utah 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 7TD10 plays · 80 yds · 4:1962% → 75%
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
62.3%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 4 yds to the Utah 24Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+21
62.7%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 21 yds to the Utah 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+28
64.4%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 28 yds to the Oregn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+5
65.7%
Rising, Cameron pass incomplete to Covey, Britain, PENALTY OREGON offside (Thibodeaux, Kayvon) 5 yards to the OREGON22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+9
67.4%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Britain Covey for 9 yds to the Oregn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8MISSED FG10 plays · 52 yds · 3:0627% → 23%
UTAHDrive 9TD6 plays · 77 yds · 1:3578% → 91%
Q2 1:41
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+49
78.3%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 49 yds to the Oregn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10END OF HALF TD7 plays · 7 yds · 0:2711% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:579% → 8%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
90.7%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Dont'e Thornton for 8 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-7
97.5%
Anthony Brown sacked by Junior Tafuna for a loss of 7 yards to the Oregn 29Similar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 17
OWN 29
+17
98.0%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kris Hutson for 17 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+8
98.0%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Dont'e Thornton for 8 yds to the Utah 47Similar
Q3 10:31
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+10
98.3%
Brown, Anthony pass complete to Dye, Travis for 6 yards to the UTAH40, PENALTY UTAH holding (Mataele, Malone) 10 yards to the UTAH36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGON.Similar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
91.8%
Devon Williams 36 Yd pass from Anthony Brown (Camden Lewis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 12TD13 plays · 75 yds · 6:0593% → 100%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
93.9%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 15 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
94.9%
Rising, Cameron pass incomplete to Vele, Devaughn, PENALTY OREGON pass interference 15 yards to the OREGON15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTAH.Similar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
94.9%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 5 yds to the Oregn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13DOWNS13 plays · 36 yds · 3:571% → 0%
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
99.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 7 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+20
99.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kris Hutson for 20 yds to the Utah 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:39
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+10
99.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Devon Williams for 10 yds to the Utah 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-3
99.6%
Anthony Brown sacked by Junior Tafuna and Zemaiah Vaughn for a loss of 3 yards to the Utah 34Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 34
+3
99.7%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Spencer Webb for 3 yds to the Utah 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 14FG14 plays · 56 yds · 7:19100% → 100%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
99.7%
Rising, Cameron pass incomplete to Kuithe, Brant, PENALTY UTAH holding (Olaseni, Bamidele) 10 yards to the UTAH45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+20
99.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Micah Bernard for 20 yds to the Oregn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+10
99.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Britain Covey for 10 yds to the Oregn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-11
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the Oregn 13 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Utah Brant KuitheSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15DOWNS13 plays · 66 yds · 3:350% → 0%
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
99.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Byron Cardwell for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 34Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+18
99.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Devon Williams for 18 yds to the Utah 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
99.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kris Hutson for 9 yds to the Utah 39Similar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+22
99.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 22 yds to the Utah 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 16END OF GAME7 plays · 18 yds · 3:56100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:27
Tavion Thomas 4 Yd Run (Jadon Redding Kick)
+11.2
TD · Q2 5:08
Cameron Rising 1 Yd Run (Jadon Redding Kick)
+8
KEY PLAY · Q3 14:59
Anthony Brown pass complete to Dont'e Thornton for 8 yds to the Oregn 33
-6.4