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CAL

California 41 at Stanford 11

STAN
2021 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2021 · Stanford Stadium
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Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:39 · Chase Garbers pass complete to Keleki Latu for 12 yds to the Stanf 5 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 157Home team on offense−34.8Score differential−16.4Pregame prior−2.3Garbage-time factor−9.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:07: Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 84 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK) — CAL win probability +6.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:38: Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brooks for 1 yd for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK) — CAL win probability +9.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 11:05: Dario Longhetto 24 yd FG GOOD — CAL win probability +7.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:26: Marcel Dancy run for 76 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK) — CAL win probability +6.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:48: Austin Jones 1 Yd Run (Tanner McKee Pass to John Humphreys for Two-Point Conversion) — STAN win probability +11.7 pts (now 15%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 7CAL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:18STAN 4th & 2 at CAL 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    46.3%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    45.6%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:16STAN 4th & 5 at CAL 5, tied
    Close callWent for it · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.2%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    49.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    46.8%−2.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:59STAN 4th & 9 at STAN 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:06STAN 4th & 14 at CAL 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    27.4%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:34CAL 4th & 9 at CAL 19, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−2.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.6%
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:05CAL 4th & 6 at STAN 6, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    63.8%−6.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:27STAN 4th & 19 at STAN 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−2.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:40CAL 4th & 9 at STAN 16, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    75.5%−7.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:19STAN 4th & 9 at CAL 41, down 17
    Close callPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    14.7%−0.8
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:39STAN 4th & 20 at STAN 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−1.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:39CAL 4th & 1 at STAN 17, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    90.7%−1.9
    80% to make
    Punt
    85.4%−7.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:19CAL 4th & 6 at STAN 37, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    97.5%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    97.2%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 0 of 1CAL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 12:07CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:38CAL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:26CAL Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:48STAN Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    6.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    6.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:4036% → 36%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
35.9%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Austin Jones for 6 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 4
OWN 37
0
36.2%
Tanner McKee pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2FUMBLE
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
36.2%
Damien Moore run for 5 yds to the Cal 32 Damien Moore fumbled, forced by Dalyn Wade-Perry, recovered by Stanf Kyu Blu KellySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3DOWNS
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:5636% → 38%
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
36.3%
Austin Jones run for no gain to the Cal 32Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+12
36.3%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 12 yds to the Cal 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
36.3%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 8 yds to the Cal 12Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+3
36.3%
E.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Cal 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
36.3%
Austin Jones run for 2 yds to the Cal 11Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
36.3%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Benjamin YurosekSimilar
Q1 14:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+9
36.2%
Tanner McKee pass complete to John Humphreys for 9 yds to the Cal 2Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
36.3%
STANFORD Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 10:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
38.0%
Tanner McKee run for 1 yd to the Cal 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4INT
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:5362% → 61%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+13
37.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Gavin Reinwald for 13 yds to the Cal 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+13
37.7%
Chase Garbers run for 13 yds to the Cal 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
37.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 9 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 1
OWN 36
0
37.3%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+7
37.4%
Christopher Brooks run for 7 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
37.2%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Christopher BrooksSimilar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+19
37.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 19 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+25
37.1%
Chase Garbers run for 25 yds to the Stanf 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
37.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 5 yds to the Stanf 8Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 5
OPP 8
-15
37.0%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Stanf 19Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 16
OPP 19
0
38.9%
Chase Garbers pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5DOWNS
12 plays · 75 yds · 6:0939% → 43%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
39.4%
Nathaniel Peat run for 7 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+12
39.6%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Michael Wilson for 12 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
39.9%
Austin Jones run for 8 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+4
40.4%
Nathaniel Peat run for 4 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
40.5%
Tanner McKee pass complete to E.J. Smith for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 11
50
0
40.0%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Michael WilsonSimilar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 11
50
+15
39.7%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 15 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+27
40.7%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 27 yds to the Cal 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
40.7%
Austin Jones run for 5 yds to the Cal 3Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
43.7%
Austin Jones run for no gain to the Cal 3Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
43.1%
Tanner McKee sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 5Similar
Q2 14:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
42.6%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Benjamin YurosekSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6TD
4 plays · 95 yds · 2:0959% → 65%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
41.3%
Christopher Brooks run for 6 yds to the Cal 11Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 4
OWN 11
+3
41.2%
Christopher Brooks run for 3 yds to the Cal 14Similar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+2
41.6%
Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds to the Cal 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+84
35.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 84 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0236% → 34%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
35.7%
Nathaniel Peat run for 1 yd to the Stanf 29Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
35.7%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to John HumphreysSimilar
Q2 12:01
3RD & 9
OWN 29
0
34.8%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Austin JonesSimilar
Q2 10:59
4TH & 9
OWN 29
0
34.4%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 5:2165% → 76%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
35.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 13 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
34.4%
Christopher Brooks run for 3 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+6
34.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 6 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+2
33.9%
Chase Garbers run for 2 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
33.6%
PENALTY CAL False Start (Mettauer,McKade) 5 yards from CAL44 to CAL39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 15
OWN 39
0
34.6%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+8
34.6%
Chase Garbers run for 8 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+17
33.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 17 yds to the Stanf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
33.4%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
33.4%
PENALTY STA Offside (Booker,Thomas) 5 yards from STA36 to STA31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 5
OPP 31
0
33.1%
Christopher Brooks run for no gain to the Stanf 31Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+30
33.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Monroe Young for 30 yds to the Stanf 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
23.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brooks for 1 yd for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 3:2726% → 24%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
26.0%
Tanner McKee pass complete to John Humphreys for 12 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
27.1%
Austin Jones run for 5 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 5
OPP 46
0
27.2%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Michael WilsonSimilar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+8
26.9%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Michael Wilson for 8 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
27.1%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 3 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+1
27.6%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the Cal 36Similar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 8
OPP 36
-6
26.9%
Tanner McKee sacked by Cameron Goode for a loss of 6 yards to the Cal 42Similar
Q2 2:06
4TH & 14
OPP 42
0
24.4%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:3276% → 79%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
24.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 2 yds to the Cal 8Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+10
24.1%
Chase Garbers run for 10 yds to the Cal 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
20.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brooks for 1 yd to the Cal 19Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 9
OWN 19
0
20.1%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Tommy ChristakosSimilar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 9
OWN 19
0
20.6%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 9
OWN 19
0
20.8%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 0:3426% → 29%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
25.7%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 3 yds to the Stanf 48Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+9
25.5%
Tanner McKee pass complete to John Humphreys for 9 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+28
25.6%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Bradley Archer for 13 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, Targeting (Muelu Iosefa) to the Cal 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
26.6%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Michael Wilson for 1 yd to the Cal 14Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
26.0%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Michael WilsonSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+32
28.9%
Joshua Karty 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12FG
10 plays · 69 yds · 3:5573% → 81%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
27.4%
Christopher Brooks run for 24 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
26.2%
Christopher Brooks run for 6 yds to the Stanf 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 45
0
26.0%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jake TongesSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+5
26.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 5 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+34
26.2%
Kekoa Crawford pass complete to Trevon Clark for 34 yds to the Stanf 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
26.0%
Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds to the Stanf 8Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
26.0%
Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds to the Stanf 6Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
26.3%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Trevon ClarkSimilar
Q3 11:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
19.2%
Dario Longhetto 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 2:3520% → 18%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
20.4%
E.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Stanf 16Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+12
20.4%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Silas Starr for 12 yds to the Stanf 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
20.7%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Michael Wilson for 9 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+15
21.3%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Michael Wilson for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Josh Drayden) to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
22.7%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Bradley ArcherSimilar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-10
22.5%
McKee,Tanner pass incomplete to Humphreys,John PENALTY STA Holding (Nugent,Drake) 10 yards from CAL48 to STA42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 20
OWN 42
-5
21.3%
STANFORD Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Tanner McKee) to the Stanf 35Similar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 27
OWN 35
0
20.0%
STANFORD Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 8:27
4TH & 19
OWN 43
0
18.3%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 54 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for no gain to the Cal 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14FG
8 plays · 81 yds · 3:4783% → 88%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
16.9%
Chase Garbers run for 5 yds to the Cal 8Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+75
17.0%
Christopher Brooks run for 75 yds to the Stanf 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-14
13.6%
Garbers,Chase pass complete to Remigio,Nikko for 17 yards to the STA00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 07:04 PENALTY CAL UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Rohme,Brayden) 14 yards from STA17 to STA31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 24
OPP 31
+5
13.9%
Marcel Dancy run for 5 yds to the Stanf 26Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 19
OPP 26
-5
14.1%
PENALTY CAL False Start (Coleman,Ben) 5 yards from STA26 to STA31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 24
OPP 31
+5
14.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 5 yds to the Stanf 26Similar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 19
OPP 26
+10
14.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 10 yds to the Stanf 16Similar
Q3 4:40
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+34
12.4%
Dario Longhetto 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:1714% → 14%
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
14.2%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 11 yds to the Stanf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
15.3%
McKee,Tanner pass incomplete to Jones,Austin QB hurried by Bimage,Marqez PENALTY CAL Roughing The Passer (Bimage,Marqez) 15 yards from STA43 to CAL42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
15.8%
Nathaniel Peat run for 1 yd to the Cal 41Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
15.7%
Nathaniel Peat run for no gain to the Cal 41Similar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 9
OPP 41
0
15.4%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to John HumphreysSimilar
Q3 2:19
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
14.0%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:5391% → 97%
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
9.3%
Nikko Remigio pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 4 yds to the Cal 24Similar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+76
3.2%
Marcel Dancy run for 76 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17TD
19 plays · 93 yds · 3:334% → 15%
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
3.9%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Austin Jones for 4 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
4.0%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Michael WilsonSimilar
Q3 1:21
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+19
3.9%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Michael Wilson for 19 yds to the Stanf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
4.1%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
50
+6
3.8%
Nathaniel Peat run for 6 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
3.8%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Michael Wilson for 12 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+1
3.6%
Tanner McKee pass complete to John Humphreys for 1 yd to the Cal 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 44
0
3.6%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Elijah HigginsSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
4.1%
McKee,Tanner pass incomplete to Higgins,Elijah PENALTY CAL Pass Interference (Drayden,Josh) 13 yards from CAL30 to CAL17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
4.2%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Michael WilsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+12
4.1%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Michael Wilson for 12 yds to the Cal 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
4.2%
Austin Jones run for 4 yds to the Cal 1Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 44
+14
3.5%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 14 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
3.8%
McKee,Tanner pass complete to Wilson,Michael for 17 yards to the CAL27 (Hicks,Elijah) PENALTY STA Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Hinton,Myles) 5 yards from CAL44 to CAL49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+5
3.6%
Tanner McKee pass complete to John Humphreys for 5 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
3.7%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Elijah HigginsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
3.7%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Elijah HigginsSimilar
Q4 12:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
15.4%
Austin Jones 1 Yd Run (Tanner McKee Pass to John Humphreys for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18TD
5 plays · 39 yds · 2:1592% → 93%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
8.5%
Christopher Brooks run for 1 yd to the Stanf 38Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+27
8.6%
Nikko Remigio run for 27 yds to the Stanf 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
8.1%
Marcel Dancy run for 9 yds to the Stanf 2Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+2
6.9%
Marcel Dancy 2 Yd Run (Dario Longhetto Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:4410% → 9%
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
9.8%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Benjamin YurosekSimilar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
9.6%
Tanner McKee run for 5 yds to the Stanf 20Similar
Q4 10:23
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
9.3%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Benjamin YurosekSimilar
Q4 10:23
4TH & 15
OWN 20
-5
9.3%
PENALTY STA Delay Of Game (Sanborn,Ryan) 5 yards from STA20 to STA15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:39
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
9.3%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 4:3994% → 96%
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
6.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 14 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
6.2%
Chris Street run for 1 yd to the Stanf 45Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+19
6.2%
Chris Street run for 19 yds to the Stanf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
6.2%
Chris Street run for 1 yd to the Stanf 27Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+10
6.3%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 10 yds to the Stanf 17Similar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 1
OPP 17
0
6.4%
Marcel Dancy pass incomplete to Jake TongesSimilar
Q4 9:39
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+12
7.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Keleki Latu for 12 yds to the Stanf 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
4.4%
Chris Street 5 Yd Run (Dario Longhetto Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:206% → 4%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
5.6%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 4 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+5
5.8%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 5 yds to the Stanf 32Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+4
6.0%
Tanner McKee run for 4 yds to the Stanf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
4.1%
Tanner McKee pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:1697% → 98%
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
3.4%
Chase Garbers run for 4 yds to the Stanf 45Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+8
3.5%
Ashton Stredick run for 8 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 6
OPP 37
0
3.5%
Ashton Stredick run for no gain to the Stanf 37Similar
Q4 1:19
4TH & 6
OPP 37
-4
1.8%
Robby Rowell sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the Stanf 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · 1 yds · 1:193% → 3%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
2.8%
E.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Stanf 44Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+2
2.8%
E.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:48
Austin Jones 1 Yd Run (Tanner McKee Pass to John Humphreys for Two-Point Conversion)
+11.7
TD · Q2 5:38
Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brooks for 1 yd for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)
-9.7
FG · Q3 11:05
Dario Longhetto 24 yd FG GOOD
-7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com