2021 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2021 · Gesa Field
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Win probability · WSU
modelWSU aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playWSU scoreARIZ score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:39 · Will Plummer run for no gain to the WshSt 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 4:28: J. de Laura pass,to T. Harris for 8 yds for a TD, (D. Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +4.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:22: W. Plummer pass,to B. Curry for 11 yds for a TD, (T. Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +5.9 pts (now 19%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:26: J. de Laura pass,to C. Jackson Jr. for 43 yds for a TD, (D. Janikowski KICK), (D. Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +7.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:07: M. Borghi run for 2 yds for a TD, (D. Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +5.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:10: Travell Harris 31 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Dean Janikowski Kick) — WSU win probability +1.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7ARIZ made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
- Q1 13:28WSU 4th & 9 at WSU 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snapGo for it82.9%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.0%average punt
- Q1 10:39ARIZ 4th & 1 at WSU 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.0%70% to convertField goal17.7%−0.325% to makePunt17.8%−0.2average punt
- Q1 1:41ARIZ 4th & 13 at WSU 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.5% before the snapGo for it17.1%−0.321% to convertField goalTheir call17.5%51% to makePunt17.2%−0.3average punt
- Q2 14:53WSU 4th & 2 at WSU 40, up 7Close callPunted · 82.1% before the snapGo for it82.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.9%−0.3average punt
- Q2 13:07ARIZ 4th & 10 at ARIZ 36, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snapGo for it17.5%−0.529% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.0%average punt
- Q2 9:31WSU 4th & 6 at WSU 38, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.3% before the snapGo for it81.1%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.2%average punt
- Q2 7:41ARIZ 4th & 17 at ARIZ 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snapGo for it16.2%−1.413% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.6%average punt
- Q2 2:22ARIZ 4th & 2 at WSU 11, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.6%56% to convertField goal13.0%−0.687% to makePunt10.5%−3.1average punt
- Q2 0:23ARIZ 4th & 6 at ARIZ 29, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snapGo for it10.6%−0.639% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.2%average punt
- Q3 12:43ARIZ 4th & 12 at ARIZ 33, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snapGo for it10.1%−1.423% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.4%average punt
- Q4 12:16ARIZ 4th & 5 at WSU 27, down 14Close callWent for it · 7.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.2%−0.141% to convertField goal7.4%62% to makePunt3.2%−4.1average punt
- Q3 2:39ARIZ 4th & 7 at WSU 24, down 27Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.136% to convertField goalTheir call0.3%68% to makePunt-0.9%−1.2average punt
- Q3 15:00WSU 4th & 1 at WSU 34, up 27Close callPunted · 98.5% before the snapGo for it98.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.5%−0.4average punt
- Q3 0:27WSU 4th & 1 at WSU 34, up 27Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%−0.2average punt
- Q4 9:29WSU 4th & 17 at WSU 35, up 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snapGo for it97.5%−0.814% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.3%average punt
- Q4 8:54ARIZ 4th & 10 at ARIZ 25, down 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.2%−0.328% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%average punt
- Q4 6:02WSU 4th & 12 at ARIZ 47, up 26Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q4 2:40ARIZ 4th & 4 at ARIZ 25, down 26Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ARIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 7:11WSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.6%97% to makeGo for two82.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:28WSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.4%97% to makeGo for two87.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:22ARIZ Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call17.5%97% to makeGo for two17.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:26WSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.0%97% to makeGo for two87.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:07WSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.7%97% to makeGo for two96.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:10WSU Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:37WSU Touchdown, up 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWSUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2486% → 85%
Q1 14:39
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-5
85.8%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, False Start (Donovan Ollie) to the WshSt 32Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+4
85.7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 4 yds to the WshSt 36Similar
Q1 13:28
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+5
85.4%
Nick Haberer punt for 46 yds , Stanley Berryhill III returns for 5 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2DOWNS6 plays · 32 yds · 2:3315% → 16%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 3TD8 plays · 55 yds · 3:1485% → 86%
Q1 8:22
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+9
84.4%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Travell Harris for 9 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
84.1%
DE LAURA, Jayden pass to the right incomplete intended for HARRIS, Travell thrown to the ARI0. PENALTY Before the snap, WSU False Start on LUCAS, Abraham enforced 5 yards from the ARI21 to the ARI26. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4MISSED FG15 plays · 53 yds · 5:1815% → 16%
Q1 6:33
3RD & 9
OWN 16
-5
85.3%
ARIZONA Penalty, False Start (Stanley Berryhill III) to the Ariz 11Similar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 14
OWN 11
+35
85.2%
Will Plummer pass complete to Michael Wiley for 20 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Personal Foul (George Hicks III) to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
84.5%
Will Plummer pass complete to BJ Casteel for 7 yds to the WshSt 47Similar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 14
OPP 46
+17
84.7%
Will Plummer pass complete to Dorian Singer for 17 yds to the WshSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
83.6%
PLUMMER, Will pass to the right incomplete intended for SINGER, Dorian thrown to the WSU1. PENALTY Before the snap, ARI Illegal Formation on BERRYHILL III, Stanley enforced 5 yards from the WSU29 to the WSU34. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3085% → 84%
ARIZDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 10 yds · 1:3516% → 16%
Q2 13:45
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
83.5%
Will Plummer pass complete to Michael Wiley for no gain to the Ariz 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 3:2084% → 83%
Q2 12:19
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+14
83.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 14 yds to the WshSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
84.0%
DE LAURA, Jayden sacked for a loss of 3 yards at the WSU31 (DIALLO, Mo). PENALTY WSU Holding on FIFITA, Ma'ake enforced 10 yards from the WSU34 to the WSU24 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:31
4TH & 6
OWN 38
+5
83.2%
Nick Haberer punt for 48 yds , Stanley Berryhill III returns for 5 yds to the Ariz 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 1:4117% → 16%
WSUDrive 9TD7 plays · 69 yds · 2:3884% → 89%
ARIZDrive 10TD5 plays · 90 yds · 1:4512% → 19%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 11TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:5183% → 90%
ARIZDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4011% → 10%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.6%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 3 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+6
89.5%
Will Plummer pass complete to Michael Wiley for 6 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+4
89.6%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 49 yds , Travell Harris returns for 4 yds to the WshSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 2:0311% → 10%
Q3 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
89.2%
Will Plummer pass complete to Alex Lines for 7 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-7
89.2%
run for a loss of 7 yards to the Ariz 28 fumbled, recovered by Ariz Will PlummerSimilar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 17
OWN 28
+5
90.0%
Will Plummer pass complete to Michael Wiley for 5 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15TD14 plays · 80 yds · 17:4411% → 6%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+4
88.8%
Will Plummer pass complete to Dorian Singer for 4 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+4
92.1%
Will Plummer pass complete to Dorian Singer for 4 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
92.3%
Will Plummer pass complete to Jalen John for 1 yd to the Ariz 32Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+19
92.2%
Will Plummer pass complete to Michael Wiley for 19 yds to the WshSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
91.1%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 16 yds to the WshSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
90.3%
Will Plummer pass complete to Dorian Singer for 5 yds to the WshSt 27Similar
Q4 12:16
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+27
93.9%
Will Plummer pass complete to Michael Wiley for 27 yds for a TD, (Will Plummer pass to Dorian Singer for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 16TD6 plays · 69 yds · 2:2290% → 97%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
91.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 12 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:034% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 18TD6 plays · 60 yds · 2:4598% → 100%
Q3 7:10
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+31
99.6%
Travell Harris 31 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Dean Janikowski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19FG22 plays · 51 yds · 6:110% → 0%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
99.6%
ANDERSON, Drake rush up the middle for no gain to the ARI25 (MUJAHID, Amir). PENALTY ARI Holding on HAND, JT enforced 10 yards from the ARI25 to the ARI15. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+6
99.6%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 6 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
99.6%
Will Plummer pass complete to Alex Lines for 14 yds to the WshSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
99.6%
ANDERSON, Drake rush up the middle for no gain to the ARI25 (MUJAHID, Amir). PENALTY ARI Holding on HAND, JT enforced 10 yards from the ARI25 to the ARI15. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 16
OWN 46
+9
99.7%
Will Plummer pass complete to Michael Wiley for 9 yds to the WshSt 45Similar
Q3 3:43
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+18
99.7%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 18 yds to the WshSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+6
99.7%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 6 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+15
99.8%
PLUMMER, Will pass to the left incomplete intended for CURRY, Boobie thrown to the WSU48. PENALTY WSU Pass Interference on WATSON, Jaylen enforced 15 yards to the ARI38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
99.8%
Will Plummer pass complete to Alex Lines for 14 yds to the WshSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:01
2ND & 16
OWN 46
+9
99.8%
Will Plummer pass complete to Michael Wiley for 9 yds to the WshSt 45Similar
Q3 1:01
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+18
99.8%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 18 yds to the WshSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 20PUNT10 plays · 9 yds · 14:3399% → 100%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
98.7%
Jayden de Laura sacked by Christian Roland-Wallace for 0 yards to the WshSt 16Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+13
98.7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Max Borghi for 13 yds to the WshSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
98.7%
Nick Haberer punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Stanley Berryhill III at the Ariz 20Similar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
99.7%
Jayden de Laura sacked by Christian Roland-Wallace for 0 yards to the WshSt 16Similar
Q3 1:01
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+13
99.8%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Max Borghi for 13 yds to the WshSt 29Similar
Q3 0:27
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
99.8%
Nick Haberer punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Stanley Berryhill III at the Ariz 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 21PUNT6 plays · 10 yds · 2:4198% → 98%
ARIZDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:283% → 3%
WSUDrive 23TD2 plays · 78 yds · 0:1198% → 100%
ARIZDrive 24INT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:220% → 0%
Q4 8:29
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
99.8%
Will Plummer sacked by Andrew Edson and Ty Garay-Harris for 0 yards to the Ariz 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 25PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:59100% → 100%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Travell Harris for no gain to the Ariz 45Similar
Q4 6:10
4TH & 7
OPP 42
-5
99.9%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (Nick Haberer) to the Ariz 47Similar
Q4 6:02
4TH & 12
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Nick Haberer punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Stanley Berryhill III at the Ariz 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 26PUNT5 plays · 16 yds · 2:510% → 0%
WSUDrive 27Uncategorized5 plays · 14 yds · 1:54100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:26
J. de Laura pass,to C. Jackson Jr. for 43 yds for a TD, (D. Janikowski KICK), (D. Janikowski KICK)
+7.1
TD · Q2 2:22
W. Plummer pass,to B. Curry for 11 yds for a TD, (T. Loop KICK)
-5.9
TD · Q3 10:07
M. Borghi run for 2 yds for a TD, (D. Janikowski KICK)
+5.7