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COLO

Colorado 20 at UCLA 44

UCLA
2021 · Week 11 · Nov 13, 2021 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreCOLO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:06 · Luke Akers punt for 51 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 159Pregame prior+4.2Home team on offense+32.5Score differential+22.7Garbage-time factor+14.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+7.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:56: Brittain Brown run for 1 yd for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK) — UCLA win probability +7.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:22: Alex Fontenot run for 1 yd for a TD (Cole Becker KICK) — COLO win probability +9.9 pts (now 34%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:33: Zach Charbonnet run for 2 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira PAT MISSED) — UCLA win probability +9.0 pts (now 73%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. TD · Q3 6:07: Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 23 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK) — UCLA win probability +10.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:30: Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK) — UCLA win probability +10.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 4COLO made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:25COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:27UCLA 4th & 4 at UCLA 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:56COLO 4th & 4 at UCLA 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    21.1%−0.6
    34% to make
    Punt
    21.1%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:37COLO 4th & 4 at UCLA 4, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.9%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    23.2%−4.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:20UCLA 4th & 12 at COLO 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    60.6%−3.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:57COLO 4th & 18 at UCLA 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−1.9
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    35.1%−4.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:01COLO 4th & 28 at COLO 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−5.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:24COLO 4th & 8 at UCLA 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    18.3%−8.3
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:58COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.1%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:10COLO 4th & 14 at COLO 37, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:05COLO 4th & 3 at UCLA 45, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    0.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:06UCLA 4th & 7 at UCLA 49, up 24
    Close callPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:21UCLA 4th & 6 at COLO 6, up 24
    Close callWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5COLO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 4:53COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:56UCLA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:22COLO Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:33UCLA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:07UCLA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:30UCLA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:12UCLA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
COLODrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3011% → 11%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
89.2%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to La'Vontae Shenault for 3 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+6
89.2%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Brenden Rice for 6 yds to the Colo 37Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+1
89.2%
run for 1 yd to the Colo 37Similar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
88.8%
Josh Watts punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5889% → 88%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
88.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kam Brown for 1 yd to the UCLA 22Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+6
88.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 6 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 3
OWN 28
-1
88.8%
Zach Charbonnet run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 27Similar
Q1 11:27
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
88.1%
Luke Akers punt for 43 yds , La'Vontae Shenault returns for no gain to the Colo 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 3TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 6:3412% → 17%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
88.2%
Brendon Lewis run for 9 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+5
88.1%
Jarek Broussard run for 5 yds to the Colo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
88.1%
Jarek Broussard run for 16 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
88.1%
Jarek Broussard run for 4 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+3
88.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Brady Russell for 3 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q1 11:27
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+4
88.1%
Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds to the UCLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
88.0%
LEWIS, Brendon pass to the right complete for 3 yards to LEMONIOUS-CRAIG, Montana caught at the UCL27 and advanced to the UCL26 (GENMARK HEATH, Jordan), out of bounds. PENALTY UCL Offsides on KNIGHT, Qwuantrezz enforced 5 yards from the UCL29 to the UCL24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 5
OPP 24
+4
88.0%
Alex Fontenot run for 4 yds to the UCLA 20Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+3
88.0%
Alex Fontenot run for 3 yds to the UCLA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
88.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Daniel Arias for 4 yds to the UCLA 13Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+9
88.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Brady Russell for 9 yds to the UCLA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
88.0%
Alex Fontenot run for 3 yds to the UCLA 1Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.3%
Alex Fontenot run for 1 yd for a TD (Cole Becker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4INT
9 plays · 18 yds · 3:3384% → 81%
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
84.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for 6 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 4
OWN 28
-5
84.1%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 23Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+10
84.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Chase Cota for 10 yds to the UCLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
84.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 15 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
84.5%
CHARBONNET, Zach rush to the left for a gain of 51 yards to the COL1 (PERRY, Mark). PENALTY UCL Holding on DULCICH, Greg enforced 10 yards from the UCL48 to the UCL38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 20
OWN 38
-2
84.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 36Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 22
OWN 36
+4
84.0%
COLORADO Penalty, Illegal Substitution (4 Yards) to the UCLA 40Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 18
OWN 40
0
84.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:15
3RD & 18
OWN 40
0
81.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass intercepted return for no gain to the UCLA 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 5DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1920% → 20%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
80.5%
Jarek Broussard run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 48Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+7
80.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jarek Broussard for 7 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+1
79.6%
Jarek Broussard run for 1 yd to the UCLA 40Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
80.0%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6Uncategorized
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0081% → 82%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
81.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 8 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+9
81.6%
Zach Charbonnet run for 9 yds to the Colo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
81.7%
Zach Charbonnet run for 4 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
81.7%
Zach Charbonnet run for no gain to the Colo 39Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 6
OPP 39
0
81.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by Carson Wells and Terrance Lang for 0 yards to the Colo 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 7FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 3:5922% → 27%
Q2 12:31
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+15
77.7%
Brendon Lewis run for 15 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
77.3%
Deion Smith run for 7 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+15
77.2%
LEWIS, Brendon pass to the left incomplete intended for ARIAS, Daniel thrown to the UCL5. PENALTY UCL Pass Interference on KIRKWOOD, Devin enforced 15 yards to the UCL19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+13
77.3%
Jarek Broussard run for 13 yds to the UCLA 7Similar
Q2 12:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
77.2%
Jarek Broussard run for 1 yd to the UCLA 6Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
77.2%
Jarek Broussard run for 2 yds to the UCLA 4Similar
Q2 12:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
77.4%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
77.6%
Deion Smith run for 3 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
77.6%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
77.2%
Deion Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 20Similar
Q2 8:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+23
73.7%
Cole Becker 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 11
OPP 20
0
72.7%
PENALTY UCL Unsportsmanlike Conduct on GENMARK HEATH, Jordan COL Unsportsmanlike Conduct on SMITH, Deion , Offsetting penalties [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 7:2073% → 74%
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+47
72.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 47 yds to the Colo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
73.7%
Brittain Brown run for 15 yds to the Colo 2 for a 1ST down COLORADO Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle on JOHNSON, Mustafa enforced half the distance from the goal (Mustafa Johnson) to the Colo 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.4%
Brittain Brown run for 1 yd for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
74.2%
COLORADO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Anthony Lyle) to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 9TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3422% → 34%
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
78.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to La'Vontae Shenault for 10 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
78.0%
Jarek Broussard run for 9 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+7
77.1%
Jarek Broussard run for 7 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+46
76.9%
Jarek Broussard run for 46 yds to the UCLA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
76.4%
Alex Fontenot run for no gain to the UCLA 3Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
76.4%
UCLA Penalty, Offsides (Otito Ogbonnia) to the UCLA 1Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.5%
Alex Fontenot run for 1 yd for a TD (Cole Becker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10MISSED FG
6 plays · 53 yds · 1:5469% → 67%
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+55
68.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Greg Dulcich for 55 yds to the Colo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
71.7%
Zach Charbonnet run for 2 yds to the Colo 25Similar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 8
OPP 25
-5
71.7%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Colo 30Similar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 13
OPP 30
+1
71.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Greg Dulcich for 1 yd to the Colo 29Similar
Q2 5:14
3RD & 12
OPP 29
0
70.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:20
4TH & 12
OPP 29
+47
66.5%
Nicholas Barr-Mira 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 11FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 2:2335% → 45%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
65.4%
Deion Smith run for 2 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+42
65.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Daniel Arias for 42 yds to the UCLA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
63.8%
Deion Smith run for 6 yds to the UCLA 21Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+7
63.8%
Deion Smith run for 7 yds to the UCLA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
59.0%
Deion Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 15Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+3
59.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Brenden Rice for 3 yds to the UCLA 12Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 8
OPP 12
0
58.4%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Otito Ogbonnia for 0 yards to the UCLA 22Similar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 18
OPP 22
+40
55.5%
Cole Becker 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 0:5759% → 60%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
58.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 9 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
59.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Brittain Brown for 8 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
59.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Chase Cota for 18 yds to the Colo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
60.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+12
60.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 12 yds to the Colo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
59.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 5 yds to the Colo 23Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 5
OPP 23
0
59.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+41
60.0%
Nicholas Barr-Mira 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 13TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 3:2360% → 73%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
60.2%
Zach Charbonnet run for 6 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+3
61.0%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+8
60.3%
Zach Charbonnet run for 8 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+31
61.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Greg Dulcich for 31 yds to the Colo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
64.1%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the Colo 25Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+5
64.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 5 yds to the Colo 20Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+7
62.8%
Zach Charbonnet run for 7 yds to the Colo 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
64.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 11 yds to the Colo 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
73.1%
Zach Charbonnet run for 2 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:2733% → 34%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
67.2%
Alex Fontenot run for 4 yds to the Colo 23Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+4
67.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 4 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+27
67.3%
Alex Fontenot run for 27 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
64.6%
Alex Fontenot run for 3 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
64.6%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Qwuantrezz Knight for 0 yards to the Colo 39Similar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 25
OWN 39
-3
67.4%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Alex Fontenot for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 36Similar
Q3 8:01
4TH & 28
OWN 36
+11
66.2%
Josh Watts punt for 58 yds , Kyle Philips returns for 11 yds to the UCLA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15TD
7 plays · 83 yds · 1:5465% → 81%
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
65.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 10 yds to the UCLA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+17
65.4%
Brittain Brown run for 17 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
67.9%
Brittain Brown run for 14 yds to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
69.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+13
69.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Brittain Brown for 13 yds to the Colo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
70.8%
Brittain Brown run for 6 yds to the Colo 23Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+23
81.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 23 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16MISSED FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 2:4324% → 24%
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
76.4%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Brady Russell for 9 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
74.6%
Brendon Lewis run for 5 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
74.6%
Jarek Broussard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 38Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+35
75.4%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Brady Russell for 35 yds to the UCLA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
71.6%
Jarek Broussard run for 2 yds to the UCLA 25Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
71.6%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 8
OPP 25
0
73.4%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:24
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+43
74.6%
Cole Becker 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
76.2%
THOMPSON-ROBINSON, Dorian pass to the left incomplete intended for DULCICH, Greg thrown to the COL35. PENALTY COL Pass Interference on GONZALEZ, Christian enforced 15 yards to the UCL40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5478% → 90%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
78.0%
Brittain Brown run for 5 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
78.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+6
77.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 6 yds to the Colo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
79.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Chase Cota for 15 yds to the Colo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+16
80.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 16 yds to the Colo 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
79.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for 9 yds to the Colo 9Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+6
79.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for 6 yds to the Colo 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
80.0%
Zach Charbonnet run for no gain to the Colo 3Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
90.2%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0211% → 10%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Brady Russell for 4 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
88.4%
Jarek Broussard run for 4 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
89.8%
Jarek Broussard run for 1 yd to the Colo 34Similar
Q4 13:58
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
90.4%
Brady Russell run for no gain to the Colo 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 19TD
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:4691% → 98%
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
91.1%
Zach Charbonnet run for 4 yds to the Colo 30Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+22
91.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 22 yds to the Colo 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
91.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
91.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 6 yds to the Colo 2Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for 2 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20PUNT RETURN TD
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:024% → 1%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
96.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Daniel Arias for 16 yds to the Colo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
96.3%
COLORADO Penalty, False Start (Casey Roddick) to the Colo 36Similar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 15
OWN 36
0
96.5%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+1
96.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Deion Smith for 1 yd to the Colo 37Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 14
OWN 37
0
96.6%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:10
4TH & 14
OWN 37
+82
99.2%
Josh Watts punt for 45 yds , Kyle Philips returns for 82 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:581% → 1%
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
99.1%
Brendon Lewis run for 6 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q4 10:03
3RD & 15
OWN 21
+15
99.2%
LEWIS, Brendon pass to the right incomplete intended for SMITH, Deion thrown to the COL30. PENALTY UCL Roughing the Passer on CALVERT, Bo enforced 15 yards from the COL21 to the COL36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
99.1%
Deion Smith run for 8 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q4 10:03
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+4
99.1%
Alex Fontenot run for 4 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
99.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Brenden Rice for 5 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q4 10:03
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+2
99.0%
Alex Fontenot run for 2 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q4 10:03
3RD & 3
OPP 45
0
99.1%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:05
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
99.4%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:5999% → 100%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
99.3%
Keegan Jones run for 1 yd to the UCLA 47Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
99.5%
Keegan Jones run for no gain to the UCLA 47Similar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 9
OWN 47
-10
99.5%
THOMPSON-ROBINSON, Dorian pass up the middle complete for 8 yards to NORWOOD, Josiah caught at the UCL50 and advanced to the COL45 (HAM, Marvin). PENALTY UCL Holding on DIGIORGIO, Garrett enforced 10 yards from the UCL47 to the UCL37 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 19
OWN 37
+12
99.5%
Keegan Jones run for 12 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q4 5:06
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
99.5%
Luke Akers punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 23FUMBLE
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:110% → 0%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.6%
Deion Smith run for 4 yds to the Colo 24Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+8
99.6%
Drew Carter pass complete to Daniel Arias for 8 yds to the Colo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
99.5%
Drew Carter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
99.6%
Drew Carter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
99.6%
Drew Carter sacked for 0 yards to the Colo 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 16 yds · 3:34100% → 100%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
99.6%
Keegan Jones run for 2 yds to the Colo 20Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+4
99.6%
COLORADO Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Mustafa Johnson) to the Colo 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
99.6%
Keegan Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 10Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
99.6%
Keegan Jones run for 1 yd to the Colo 9Similar
Q4 3:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
99.6%
Keegan Jones run for 3 yds to the Colo 6Similar
Q4 0:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.7%
Keegan Jones run for no gain to the Colo 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+8
99.7%
Deion Smith run for 8 yds to the Colo 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:07
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 23 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)
+10.2
TD · Q3 0:30
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)
+10.2
TD · Q2 5:22
Alex Fontenot run for 1 yd for a TD (Cole Becker KICK)
-9.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com