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STAN

Stanford 14 at Oregon State 35

ORST
2021 · Week 11 · Nov 13, 2021 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:45 · Joshua Karty 55 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by , return for no gain to the OrgSt 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 62Pregame prior+18.0Home team on offense+4.0Score differential+1.2Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:17: Jack Colletto 2 Yd Run (Everett Hayes Kick) — ORST win probability +7.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:24: Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 67 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +7.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:24: Ari Patu pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 8 yds for a TD, (Joshua Karty KICK) — STAN win probability +7.2 pts (now 13%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 8:39: STANFORD Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 38 — STAN win probability +3.1 pts (now 14%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:40: B.J. Baylor run for 6 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +6.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 3 of 5STAN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:59STAN 4th & 7 at STAN 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:59ORST 4th & 1 at ORST 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    79.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:33STAN 4th & 10 at STAN 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:38ORST 4th & 10 at STAN 38, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.1%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    79.1%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:45ORST 4th & 6 at STAN 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    79.6%−0.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.1%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:45STAN 4th & 5 at ORST 37, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.6%−0.6
    40% to make
    Punt
    20.3%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:09ORST 4th & 3 at STAN 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    79.5%−0.6
    45% to make
    Punt
    78.6%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:24STAN 4th & 2 at ORST 8, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    4.1%−0.8
    90% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−5.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:39ORST 4th & 1 at ORST 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    89.5%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:19STAN 4th & 4 at ORST 27, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5STAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:30ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:17ORST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:24ORST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:24STAN Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:40ORST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:19ORST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:25STAN Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5420% → 20%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
80.4%
Austin Jones run for 3 yds to the Stanf 40Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
80.4%
Ari Patu pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
80.4%
Ari Patu pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:59
4TH & 7
OWN 40
+12
80.2%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 47 yds , Trevon Bradford returns for 12 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 7:2980% → 81%
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
80.2%
B.J. Baylor run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
80.2%
B.J. Baylor run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
80.2%
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
80.2%
Trey Lowe run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+2
80.2%
Chance Nolan run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q1 13:59
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+3
80.2%
run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
80.2%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Champ Flemings for 1 yd to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+4
80.2%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 4 yds to the Stanf 48Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+9
80.2%
Trey Lowe run for 9 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
80.3%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for 12 yds to the Stanf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
80.3%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+4
80.3%
Anthony Gould run for 4 yds to the Stanf 23Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+14
80.2%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for 14 yds to the Stanf 9 for a 1ST down pass incomplete to Teagan Quitoriano for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
80.3%
Trey Lowe run for 4 yds to the Stanf 5Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
80.3%
Tre'Shaun Harrison run for 1 yd to the Stanf 4Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
80.7%
Chance Nolan run for 4 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 3:5720% → 20%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.2%
Ari Patu pass complete to Nathaniel Peat for 2 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
80.1%
Nathaniel Peat run for 6 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
80.1%
Isaiah Sanders run for 3 yds to the Stanf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
80.0%
Nathaniel Peat run for 10 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
79.7%
Austin Jones run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 6
50
+1
79.6%
Isaiah Sanders run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
79.7%
Ari Patu pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:47
4TH & 5
OPP 49
-5
79.9%
SANBORN, Ryan punt 37 yards to the OSU12 downed by ARCHER, Bradley. PENALTY Before the snap, STA Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the OSU49 to the STA46. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:33
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
80.1%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4MISSED FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 5:5580% → 79%
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
80.0%
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 5Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+10
79.9%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Deshaun Fenwick for 10 yds to the OrgSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+22
80.0%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 22 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
80.3%
B.J. Baylor run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+2
80.7%
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+5
80.3%
B.J. Baylor run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
80.7%
Chance Nolan pass complete to B.J. Baylor for 13 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
80.8%
NOLAN, Chance pass to the left incomplete intended for MUSGRAVE, Luke thrown to the STA18. PENALTY OSU Holding on KEOBOUNNAM, Nous enforced 10 yards from the STA38 to the STA48 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 48
+9
80.4%
Trey Lowe run for 9 yds to the Stanf 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+6
80.8%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trey Lowe for 6 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 5
OPP 33
-10
80.6%
BAYLOR, B.J. rush to the right for a gain of 33 yards to the STA0, TOUCHDOWN OSU, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY OSU Holding on KIPPER, Brandon enforced 10 yards from the STA33 to the STA43 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 15
OPP 43
+5
79.6%
Trey Lowe run for 5 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
Q2 11:38
4TH & 10
OPP 38
+56
79.3%
Everett Hayes 56 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:5222% → 21%
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
78.5%
Austin Jones run for 2 yds to the Stanf 40Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
78.5%
Ari Patu pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
78.8%
Ari Patu pass intercepted return for no gain to the OrgSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 3:0180% → 80%
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
79.7%
B.J. Baylor run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+16
80.1%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Champ Flemings for 16 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
80.8%
FENWICK, Deshaun rush to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the STA44 (DICOSMO, Aeneas). PENALTY OSU Holding on HARRISON, Tre'Shaun enforced 10 yards from the STA48 to the OSU42. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 20
OWN 42
+9
80.0%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 9 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 11
OPP 49
0
80.3%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+5
79.7%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 5 yds to the Stanf 44Similar
Q2 7:45
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
80.1%
Chance Nolan punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7MISSED FG
9 plays · 43 yds · 4:0021% → 21%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
79.5%
Ari Patu run for 2 yds to the Stanf 22Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+10
79.7%
Ari Patu pass complete to Michael Wilson for 10 yds to the Stanf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
79.8%
Ari Patu pass complete to Michael Wilson for 15 yds to the Stanf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
78.8%
Isaiah Sanders run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
78.5%
Ari Patu pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-3
78.7%
Austin Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 13
OPP 45
+8
80.1%
Ari Patu run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q2 3:45
4TH & 5
OPP 37
0
79.4%
Joshua Karty 55 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by , return for no gain to the OrgSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8TD
14 plays · 63 yds · 3:2881% → 89%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
81.0%
B.J. Baylor run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+1
81.7%
B.J. Baylor run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+13
81.1%
Chance Nolan run for 3 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST down STANFORD Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Stanf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
81.9%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Deshaun Fenwick for 4 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 6
OPP 38
-1
81.9%
B.J. Baylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 39Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+4
82.0%
Chance Nolan run for 4 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q2 1:09
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+6
81.1%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 6 yds to the Stanf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
82.9%
Chance Nolan run for 4 yds to the Stanf 25Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 6
OPP 25
-5
82.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 30Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+20
81.9%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 20 yds to the Stanf 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
82.0%
NOLAN, Chance pass to the left incomplete intended for HARRISON, Tre'Shaun thrown to the STA0. PENALTY STA Pass Interference on WYRICK, Jimmy enforced 8 yards to the STA2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
89.1%
Jack Colletto 2 Yd Run (Everett Hayes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
87.7%
Nathaniel Peat run for 1 yd to the Stanf 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:3688% → 95%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.1%
B.J. Baylor run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
88.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+10
88.0%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 10 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+67
95.2%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 67 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:005% → 13%
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
94.6%
Ari Patu pass complete to Austin Jones for 8 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+15
94.1%
OREGON ST Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Kitan Oladapo) to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+21
94.1%
Ari Patu run for 21 yds to the OrgSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
93.6%
Ari Patu pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-1
93.6%
Ari Patu pass complete to Michael Wilson for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 11
OPP 17
+9
94.2%
Ari Patu pass complete to Michael Wilson for 9 yds to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q3 10:24
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+8
87.0%
Ari Patu pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 8 yds for a TD, (Joshua Karty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4589% → 87%
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.3%
B.J. Baylor run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
89.3%
B.J. Baylor run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
88.9%
run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-1
89.5%
Deshaun Fenwick run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
86.5%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13INT
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:5312% → 11%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+1
87.7%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 14
OPP 37
0
87.8%
Dylan Plautz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 14
OPP 37
0
88.7%
Dylan Plautz pass intercepted return for no gain to the OrgSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 5:0690% → 98%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
90.4%
NOLAN, Chance pass to the left incomplete intended for HARRISON, Tre'Shaun broken up by BONNER, Ethan at the OSU50. PENALTY STA Personal Foul on DAMUNI, Levani enforced 15 yards from the OSU20 to the OSU35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
90.4%
B.J. Baylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+8
90.3%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 8 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+5
90.4%
Trey Lowe run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
90.9%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+10
90.8%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 10 yds to the Stanf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
90.9%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+8
90.8%
B.J. Baylor run for 8 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+3
90.5%
run for 3 yds to the Stanf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
90.9%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 8 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+4
90.9%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 4 yds to the Stanf 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
90.9%
Chance Nolan run for 14 yds to the Stanf 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
97.7%
B.J. Baylor run for 6 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15FUMBLE
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:193% → 2%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.4%
Isaiah Sanders run for 2 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
97.3%
Isaiah Sanders run for 4 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
97.3%
Austin Jones run for 5 yds to the Stanf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
98.1%
Austin Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 34 fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Keonte SchadSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16TD
6 plays · 34 yds · 1:4198% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+22
98.4%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Champ Flemings for 22 yds to the Stanf 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
98.4%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+4
98.4%
B.J. Baylor run for 4 yds to the Stanf 8Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 8
-2
98.4%
Chance Nolan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 10 for a 1ST down STANFORD Penalty, Personal Foul (Gabe Reid) to the Stanf 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.4%
B.J. Baylor run for no gain to the Stanf 5Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.8%
Teagan Quitoriano 5 Yd pass from Chance Nolan (Everett Hayes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:540% → 1%
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
99.8%
Isaiah Sanders run for 8 yds to the Stanf 33 OREGON ST Penalty, Targeting (15 Yards) to the Stanf 33Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
99.8%
Austin Jones run for 5 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
99.8%
JONES, Austin rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the STA43 (FRANKE, Ryan). PENALTY STA Holding on HORNIBROOK, Jake enforced 10 yards from the STA38 to the STA28 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 20
OWN 28
0
99.8%
Isaiah Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 20
OWN 28
+3
99.9%
Isaiah Sanders run for 3 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q4 13:19
3RD & 17
OWN 31
+17
99.9%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Michael Wilson for 17 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.8%
Isaiah Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+19
99.8%
Dylan Plautz pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 19 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
99.8%
Dylan Plautz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+6
99.8%
Austin Jones run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q4 13:19
3RD & 4
OPP 27
0
99.8%
Isaiah Sanders run for no gain to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q4 13:19
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+5
99.8%
Isaiah Sanders run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
99.8%
Dylan Plautz pass complete to Nathaniel Peat for 7 yds to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 3
OPP 15
-3
99.8%
Dylan Plautz run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+18
99.2%
Nathaniel Peat run for 18 yds for a TD, (Joshua Karty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18END OF GAME
9 plays · 56 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.1%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.1%
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
99.1%
Trey Lowe run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
99.1%
Trey Lowe run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+4
99.1%
B.J. Baylor run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+19
99.1%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 19 yds to the Stanf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
99.2%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 13 yds to the Stanf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
99.2%
B.J. Baylor run for 3 yds to the Stanf 26Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+8
99.2%
B.J. Baylor run for 8 yds to the Stanf 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:24
Ari Patu pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 8 yds for a TD, (Joshua Karty KICK)
-7.2
TD · Q2 0:17
Jack Colletto 2 Yd Run (Everett Hayes Kick)
+7.1
TD · Q3 13:24
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 67 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)
+7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com