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USC

USC 16 at Arizona State 31

ASU
2021 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2021 · Mountain America Stadium
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Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:34 · Jaxson Dart pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 22 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 167Pregame prior+0.6Home team on offense+27.6Garbage-time factor+7.3Score differential+9.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+3.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:58: DeaMonte Trayanum run for 14 yds for a TD, (Cristian Zendejas KICK) — ASU win probability +3.7 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:39: Jaxson Dart run for 9 yds for a TD, (Parker Lewis KICK) — USC win probability +6.9 pts (now 39%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:35: Rachaad White run for 47 yds for a TD, (Cristian Zendejas KICK) — ASU win probability +10.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 12:36: Cristian Zendejas 29 Yd Field Goal — ASU win probability +4.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:13: Rachaad White run for 50 yds for a TD, (Cristian Zendejas KICK) — ASU win probability +20.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 2 of 5USC made the numbers' call on 6 of 11
  1. Q1 12:19USC 4th & 3 at ASU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    25.9%−0.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    26.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:15ASU 4th & 4 at ASU 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:48USC 4th & 9 at USC 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:03ASU 4th & 3 at USC 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    71.9%−0.3
    51% to make
    Punt
    71.6%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:28USC 4th & 13 at ASU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    21.2%−2.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:30USC 4th & 6 at USC 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:19USC 4th & 10 at ASU 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.5%
    47% to make
    Punt
    27.9%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:36ASU 4th & 3 at USC 11, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.6%−0.4
    87% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−5.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:23USC 4th & 4 at ASU 28, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.0%−0.6
    60% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−6.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:17ASU 4th & 8 at ASU 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−2.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:09USC 4th & 8 at ASU 35, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.4%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    28.3%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:28USC 4th & 5 at ASU 46, down 1
    Close callPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    32.2%−4.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:08ASU 4th & 2 at ASU 14, up 1
    Close callPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:25USC 4th & 4 at USC 41, down 1
    Close callPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:30USC 4th & 3 at USC 32, down 8
    Close callPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:34USC 4th & 10 at USC 25, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 0:58ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:39USC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:35ASU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:13ASU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−1.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:58ASU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1INT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:3628% → 29%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
71.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 7 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+1
71.5%
Keaontay Ingram run for 1 yd to the USC 45Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+5
71.3%
Kedon Slovis run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
50
0
71.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 10
50
+7
71.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tahj Washington for 7 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 3
OPP 43
0
70.9%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:19
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
71.0%
Kedon Slovis pass intercepted Kyle Soelle return for no gain to the ArzSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5571% → 71%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
71.2%
Rachaad White run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+2
71.2%
Rachaad White run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+3
71.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 3 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q1 10:15
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
70.8%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 50 yds, downed at the USC 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 41 yds · 3:1329% → 30%
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
70.8%
Keaontay Ingram run for no gain to the USC 7Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+6
70.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 6 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 4
OWN 13
+19
70.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Malcolm Epps for 19 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
70.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tahj Washington for 15 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
69.5%
Keaontay Ingram run for 1 yd to the USC 48Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
69.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
69.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:48
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
70.2%
Ben Griffiths punt for 46 yds, downed at the ArzSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4TD
13 plays · 94 yds · 5:4170% → 75%
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+15
69.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 15 yds to the ArzSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
69.9%
Rachaad White run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
70.0%
Rachaad White run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+7
69.9%
Rachaad White run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
70.1%
Rachaad White run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+12
70.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 12 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
70.5%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 41Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 12
OPP 41
0
70.3%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 12
OPP 41
+9
69.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 9 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q1 2:03
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+11
70.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 11 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
71.3%
Rachaad White run for 7 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+14
75.0%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 14 yds for a TD, (Cristian Zendejas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5FG
15 plays · 54 yds · 4:0226% → 29%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
73.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 14 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
73.0%
Keaontay Ingram run for no gain to the USC 39Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+24
73.2%
Keaontay Ingram run for 24 yds to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
72.4%
Keaontay Ingram run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 15
OPP 42
+12
73.2%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Evan Fields) to the ArzSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
71.9%
Darwin Barlow run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
71.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+10
72.7%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jordan Clark) to the ArzSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
71.8%
USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (Liam Jimmons) to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 20
OPP 28
+7
72.4%
Keaontay Ingram run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 21Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 13
OPP 21
0
71.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 13
OPP 21
0
73.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:28
4TH & 13
OPP 21
+38
71.4%
Parker Lewis 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6FUMBLE
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+16
70.6%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 16 yds to the ArzSt 43 DeaMonte Trayanum fumbled, recovered by USC Ralen GoforthSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7TD
7 plays · 43 yds · 2:2131% → 39%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
69.3%
Keaontay Ingram run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+8
68.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Kyle Ford for 8 yds to the ArzSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
68.1%
Jaxson Dart run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+2
67.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 2 yds to the ArzSt 22Similar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+11
68.7%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Face Mask (11 yards) (Jordan Clark) to the ArzSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
67.7%
Keaontay Ingram run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 9Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
60.8%
Jaxson Dart run for 9 yds for a TD, (Parker Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:3563% → 73%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
62.7%
Jayden Daniels run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+26
62.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Rachaad White for 26 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
72.8%
Rachaad White run for 47 yds for a TD, (Cristian Zendejas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:5729% → 29%
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
71.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tahj Washington for 12 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
70.2%
Kedon Slovis run for 4 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
69.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tahj Washington for no gain to the USC 41Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
69.9%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:30
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
71.3%
Ben Griffiths punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10INT
6 plays · 29 yds · 2:3371% → 73%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
71.0%
Rachaad White run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+7
71.2%
Rachaad White run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
71.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Rachaad White for 9 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+5
72.7%
Rachaad White run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
73.2%
Daniyel Ngata run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
73.0%
Jayden Daniels pass intercepted Xavion Alford return for no gain to the USC 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11MISSED FG
10 plays · 27 yds · 2:2331% → 29%
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
69.2%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
69.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+10
70.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 10 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
67.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for no gain to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
68.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 4 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+9
68.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tahj Washington for 9 yds to the ArzSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
66.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
66.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
68.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+51
71.0%
Parker Lewis 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-3
71.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13FG
9 plays · 64 yds · 2:1370% → 76%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
70.4%
Rachaad White run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+32
71.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 32 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
73.5%
Rachaad White run for 2 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+15
73.5%
USC Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Chris Steele) to the USC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
73.5%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+7
73.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 7 yds to the USC 11Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 3
OPP 11
0
72.2%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:36
4TH & 3
OPP 11
+29
76.3%
Cristian Zendejas 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:0525% → 30%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
75.5%
Keaontay Ingram run for 15 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
74.3%
Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+7
73.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tahj Washington for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
50
+16
73.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 16 yds to the ArzSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
71.6%
Keaontay Ingram run for no gain to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+9
71.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Erik Krommenhoek for 9 yds to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 1
OPP 25
-3
72.8%
Keaontay Ingram run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q3 9:23
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+45
69.6%
Parker Lewis 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5473% → 70%
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
72.5%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
72.3%
Rachaad White run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 22Similar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
71.1%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
70.4%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 54 yds, downed at the USC 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16FG
12 plays · 41 yds · 4:5829% → 35%
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
71.1%
Vavae Malepeai run for 1 yd to the USC 25Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+5
71.3%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the USC 30Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+12
69.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 12 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
68.9%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
67.1%
Keaontay Ingram run for no gain to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
67.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 4 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+7
67.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
67.2%
USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jude Wolfe) to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 20
OPP 47
-4
68.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 49Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 24
OWN 49
+16
69.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Kyle Ford for 16 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 8
OPP 35
0
66.9%
Vavae Malepeai run for no gain to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q3 3:09
4TH & 8
OPP 35
+52
65.2%
Parker Lewis 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17INT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:4567% → 70%
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.8%
Rachaad White run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+14
66.7%
Jayden Daniels run for 14 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
69.0%
Rachaad White run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
69.8%
Jayden Daniels pass intercepted Xavion Alford return for no gain to the USC 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3638% → 36%
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
61.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
62.0%
Jaxson Dart run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q3 0:37
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
61.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:28
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
64.1%
Ben Griffiths punt for 40 yds, downed at the ArzSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5266% → 63%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
65.6%
Rachaad White run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 12Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+1
66.2%
Rachaad White run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 13Similar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 3
OWN 13
+1
64.5%
Jayden Daniels run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q4 14:08
4TH & 2
OWN 14
0
63.0%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 51 yds, downed at the USC 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4236% → 36%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
63.6%
Darwin Barlow run for 4 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
60.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 3 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
-1
60.5%
Kedon Slovis run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 41Similar
Q4 11:25
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
64.2%
Ben Griffiths punt for 39 yds, downed at the ArzSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:0666% → 91%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
65.9%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Ricky PearsallSimilar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
65.5%
Daniyel Ngata run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q4 10:14
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+13
64.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 13 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
67.8%
Rachaad White run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 13
OWN 35
0
65.5%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 13
OWN 35
+14
63.9%
Jayden Daniels run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Defensive Holding (Chris Steele) to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
70.0%
Rachaad White run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 9
50
+50
90.9%
Rachaad White run for 50 yds for a TD, (Cristian Zendejas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:3612% → 12%
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
87.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 7 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
87.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:30
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
88.2%
Ben Griffiths punt for 35 yds, downed at the ArzSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23TD
12 plays · 67 yds · 5:1291% → 99%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
90.9%
Daniyel Ngata run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+5
91.3%
Rachaad White run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+29
91.6%
Jayden Daniels run for 29 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
94.1%
Rachaad White run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 31Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+8
94.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 8 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q4 4:04
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+4
94.0%
Rachaad White run for 4 yds to the USC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
95.2%
Rachaad White run for 6 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+3
95.7%
Rachaad White run for 3 yds to the USC 10Similar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+3
95.0%
Rachaad White run for 3 yds to the USC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
98.6%
Rachaad White run for 7 yds for a TD, (Cristian Zendejas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24INT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:563% → 2%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
97.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
97.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:34
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+22
97.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 22 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
97.5%
USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (Justin Dedich) to the USC 37Similar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+11
97.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 11 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 9
OWN 48
-1
97.6%
Jaxson Dart pass intercepted DeAndre Pierce return for 1 yd to the ArzSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:3599% → 99%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 32
-3
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:13
Rachaad White run for 50 yds for a TD, (Cristian Zendejas KICK)
+20.9
TD · Q2 7:35
Rachaad White run for 47 yds for a TD, (Cristian Zendejas KICK)
+10.3
TD · Q2 8:39
Jaxson Dart run for 9 yds for a TD, (Parker Lewis KICK)
-6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com