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ORST

Oregon State 34 at Colorado 37

COLO
2021 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2021 · Folsom Field
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:17 · Josh Watts punt for 46 yds , Anthony Gould returns for 15 yds to the OrgSt 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differential
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 141Pregame prior−3.6Home team on offense−7.9Garbage-time factor−5.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.4Score differential−1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 8:23: Tre'Shaun Harrison 27 Yd pass from Chance Nolan (Everett Hayes Kick) — ORST win probability +28.3 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 2:24: Montana Lemonious-Craig 16 Yd pass from Brendon Lewis (Cole Becker Kick) — COLO win probability +48.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 0:00: Everett Hayes 60 Yd Field Goal — ORST win probability +42.7 pts (now 58%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Chance Nolan pass complete to Luke Musgrave for 13 yds to the Colo 3 — ORST win probability +32.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: Timeout OREGON ST, clock 00:00 — COLO win probability +48.4 pts (now 59%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ORST made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 10:18COLO 4th & 10 at ORST 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    25.7%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:20ORST 4th & 8 at ORST 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:53ORST 4th & 1 at COLO 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    62.1%−1.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    58.3%−4.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:44COLO 4th & 2 at ORST 16, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.5%−0.5
    81% to make
    Punt
    30.9%−4.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:17COLO 4th & 21 at COLO 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−3.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:20ORST 4th & 16 at ORST 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−3.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:39COLO 4th & 26 at ORST 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−2.1
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.9%
    47% to make
    Punt
    39.8%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:31ORST 4th & 9 at ORST 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−2.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:39COLO 4th & 3 at COLO 41, up 3
    Close callPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:35ORST 4th & 2 at ORST 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    52.2%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:41COLO 4th & 8 at ORST 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:41ORST 4th & 1 at ORST 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.8%−4.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:17COLO 4th & 7 at COLO 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:37ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:32ORST 4th & 6 at COLO 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−6.7
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.3%
    49% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−15.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:05COLO 4th & 7 at COLO 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−3.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ORST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:47COLO Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:53ORST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:54COLO Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:19ORST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:23ORST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:24COLO Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−1.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
COLODrive 1FG
13 plays · 65 yds · 4:4223% → 26%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
23.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Brady Russell for 20 yds to the Colo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
23.0%
Jarek Broussard run for 2 yds to the Colo 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+9
23.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Daniel Arias for 9 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
23.0%
Jarek Broussard run for 15 yds to the OrgSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
23.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to La'Vontae Shenault for 1 yd to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+2
23.0%
Brendon Lewis run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+21
23.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Chase Penry for 21 yds to the OrgSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
23.0%
Brendon Lewis run for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 9Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
23.0%
Jarek Broussard run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
23.0%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
25.9%
Cole Becker 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5874% → 73%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.7%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
25.8%
OREGON ST Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Tre'Shaun Harrison) to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
25.8%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+7
25.9%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trey Lowe for 7 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q1 9:20
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
26.8%
Luke Loecher punt for 52 yds, fair catch by La'Vontae Shenault at the Colo 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 3TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 2:3326% → 31%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
26.3%
Jarek Broussard run for 1 yd to the Colo 22Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
26.4%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+23
26.2%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to La'Vontae Shenault for 23 yds to the Colo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
26.9%
Jarek Broussard run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+3
27.0%
Jarek Broussard run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+3
26.9%
run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
30.6%
Daniel Arias 43 Yd pass from Brendon Lewis (Cole Becker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:5471% → 69%
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
29.4%
B.J. Baylor run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
29.0%
B.J. Baylor run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
29.1%
B.J. Baylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 11
OWN 36
-10
29.3%
NOLAN, Chance scrambles to the left for a gain of 11 yards to the OSU47, End of Play. PENALTY OSU Holding enforced 10 yards from the OSU36 to the OSU26 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 21
OWN 26
+5
29.6%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Deshaun Fenwick for 5 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 16
OWN 31
+19
29.8%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
50
+7
28.7%
B.J. Baylor run for 7 yds to the Colo 43Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+6
28.6%
B.J. Baylor run for 6 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
28.7%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+14
28.8%
Chance Nolan run for 14 yds to the Colo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
28.3%
Trey Lowe run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 24Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+8
33.7%
B.J. Baylor run for 8 yds to the Colo 16Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+2
34.4%
Trey Lowe run for 2 yds to the Colo 14Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+14
30.7%
Jack Colletto 14 Yd Run (Everett Hayes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 5MISSED FG
8 plays · 50 yds · 2:5932% → 35%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
32.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Chase Penry for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
50
+7
33.7%
Deion Smith run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+4
33.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Chase Penry for 4 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
33.7%
LEWIS, Brendon pass to the left incomplete intended for RUSSELL, Brady thrown to the OSU10. PENALTY OSU Pass Interference on SHARP, Riley enforced 15 yards to the OSU24 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
33.8%
Deion Smith run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
33.8%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+6
33.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Deion Smith for 6 yds to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q2 11:44
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+35
34.8%
Cole Becker 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6INT
6 plays · 44 yds · 3:1066% → 67%
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
33.9%
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+10
34.0%
COLORADO Penalty, Defensive Holding (Janaz Jordan) to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
32.4%
NOLAN, Chance pass up the middle complete for 16 yards to BEASON, Zeriah caught at the COL40 and advanced to the COL40, End of Play. PENALTY OSU Holding on BREWER, Marco enforced 10 yards from the OSU44 to the OSU34 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 20
OWN 34
+31
33.9%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Luke Musgrave for 31 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
31.3%
Luke Musgrave run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 36Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 11
OPP 36
0
33.4%
Chance Nolan pass intercepted return for no gain to the Colo 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 2:1738% → 37%
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
38.4%
Alex Fontenot run for 3 yds to the Colo 48Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-10
38.4%
FONTENOT, Alex rush up the middle for a gain of 12 yards to the OSU40 (WRIGHT, Rejzohn). PENALTY COL Holding on KUTSCH, Kary enforced 10 yards from the COL48 to the COL38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 17
OWN 38
-4
36.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Alex Fontenot for a loss of 4 yards to the Colo 34Similar
Q2 8:34
3RD & 21
OWN 34
0
35.4%
Brendon Lewis run for no gain to the Colo 34Similar
Q2 6:17
4TH & 21
OWN 34
0
37.1%
Josh Watts punt for 50 yds , Trevon Bradford returns for no gain to the OrgSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 5 yds · 2:5762% → 57%
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
37.8%
Chance Nolan run for no gain to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-4
38.2%
BAYLOR, B.J. rush to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the OSU20 (GONZALEZ, Christian). PENALTY OSU Holding on GRAY, Joshua enforced half the distance from the goal, 8 yards from the OSU16 to the OSU8 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 18
OWN 8
0
38.5%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:17
3RD & 18
OWN 8
+19
39.3%
Trey Lowe run for 19 yds to the OrgSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
37.5%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
40.1%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:13
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
40.9%
Chance Nolan sacked by Carson Wells for 0 yards to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q2 3:20
4TH & 16
OWN 21
+6
42.8%
Luke Loecher punt for 40 yds , La'Vontae Shenault returns for 6 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 9FG
11 plays · 11 yds · 2:4144% → 48%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
44.4%
Jarek Broussard run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+1
44.3%
Jarek Broussard run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+6
43.5%
Jarek Broussard run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
44.6%
LEWIS, Brendon pass to the right incomplete intended for RICE, Brenden thrown to the OSU4. PENALTY OSU Pass Interference on WRIGHT, Rejzohn enforced 15 yards to the OSU18 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
44.6%
COLORADO Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+4
44.6%
Jarek Broussard run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 11
OPP 19
0
44.4%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 11
OPP 19
-5
43.4%
COLORADO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 16
OPP 24
-10
42.2%
LEWIS, Brendon pass up the middle complete for 0 yards to BROUSSARD, Jarek caught at the OSU25 and advanced to the OSU24 (SPEIGHTS, Omar). PENALTY COL Holding enforced 10 yards from the OSU24 to the OSU34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 26
OPP 34
0
42.1%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 26
OPP 34
+52
48.1%
Cole Becker 52 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10FG
6 plays · 49 yds · 0:3951% → 61%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
49.5%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trey Lowe for 26 yds to the Colo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
45.8%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
46.8%
Chance Nolan pass complete to B.J. Baylor for 4 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+19
46.4%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Champ Flemings for 19 yds to the Colo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+45
39.3%
Everett Hayes 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2957% → 54%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
43.0%
B.J. Baylor run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
43.1%
B.J. Baylor run for no gain to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
44.1%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+18
46.7%
Luke Loecher punt for 58 yds , La'Vontae Shenault returns for 18 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
46.1%
COLORADO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Colo 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5246% → 46%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+9
45.7%
Jarek Broussard run for 9 yds to the Colo 38Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+1
47.7%
Jarek Broussard run for 1 yd to the Colo 39Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+2
46.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 2 yds to the Colo 41Similar
Q3 11:39
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
46.0%
Josh Watts punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 3:0454% → 52%
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
45.7%
Chance Nolan run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+5
44.3%
B.J. Baylor run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
44.9%
B.J. Baylor run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+4
44.1%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trey Lowe for 4 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+1
43.3%
Chance Nolan run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q3 8:35
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
47.6%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14TD
6 plays · 41 yds · 2:4154% → 71%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
53.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 2 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+16
53.5%
Jarek Broussard run for 16 yds to the OrgSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
54.6%
Jarek Broussard run for 14 yds to the OrgSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
54.5%
Jarek Broussard run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 6Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
54.5%
Deion Smith run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 5Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
71.3%
Brenden Rice 5 Yd pass from Brendon Lewis (Cole Becker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3532% → 53%
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.5%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
68.8%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 11 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+22
67.5%
B.J. Baylor run for 22 yds to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
65.2%
Chance Nolan run for 6 yds to the Colo 36Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+3
64.6%
B.J. Baylor run for 3 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+2
64.8%
Chance Nolan run for 2 yds to the Colo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
47.0%
Trey Lowe 31 Yd Run (Everett Hayes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 3:3854% → 60%
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
53.7%
Brendon Lewis run for 5 yds to the Colo 30Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
54.4%
Alex Fontenot run for 6 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
55.0%
Alex Fontenot run for 2 yds to the Colo 38Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+6
55.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 6 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+5
55.9%
Alex Fontenot run for 5 yds to the Colo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
60.2%
Alex Fontenot run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
60.5%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
58.7%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:41
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
59.7%
Josh Watts punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 6:1842% → 78%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
58.1%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
58.5%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 4 yds to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q4 14:41
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+16
59.7%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 16 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
55.5%
Silas Bolden run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
55.2%
B.J. Baylor run for no gain to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q4 14:41
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+7
56.9%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 7 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q4 14:41
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+3
55.2%
run for 3 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
52.7%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+11
53.7%
B.J. Baylor run for 11 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
52.7%
B.J. Baylor run for no gain to the Colo 37Similar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+8
52.7%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 8 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q4 14:41
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+2
52.5%
Chance Nolan run for 2 yds to the Colo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
50.6%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+27
22.3%
Tre'Shaun Harrison 27 Yd pass from Chance Nolan (Everett Hayes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0634% → 31%
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.4%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
34.1%
Deion Smith run for 3 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q4 8:23
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
32.6%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:17
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+15
30.5%
Josh Watts punt for 46 yds , Anthony Gould returns for 15 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4078% → 75%
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
22.4%
B.J. Baylor run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+1
22.3%
B.J. Baylor run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q4 7:17
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
22.9%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:37
4TH & 6
OWN 45
+14
24.9%
Luke Loecher punt for 41 yds , La'Vontae Shenault returns for 14 yds to the Colo 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 3:1334% → 85%
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+49
33.8%
Jarek Broussard run for 49 yds to the OrgSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
42.0%
Deion Smith run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+3
42.0%
Deion Smith run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
42.0%
Deion Smith run for no gain to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+1
38.1%
Brenden Rice run for 11 yds COLORADO Penalty, Offensive Holding (La'Vontae Shenault) to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 14
OPP 15
-1
36.9%
Jarek Broussard run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 15
OPP 16
+16
85.3%
Montana Lemonious-Craig 16 Yd pass from Brendon Lewis (Cole Becker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21MISSED FG
7 plays · 42 yds · 1:5227% → 23%
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
72.6%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trey Lowe for 9 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
68.5%
Chance Nolan run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+26
70.6%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Champ Flemings for 26 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
65.8%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
65.9%
Trey Lowe run for no gain to the Colo 37Similar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+4
67.9%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 4 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q4 0:32
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+51
77.1%
Everett Hayes 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 0:2291% → 94%
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
90.7%
Jarek Broussard run for 2 yds to the Colo 35Similar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+1
94.1%
Jarek Broussard run for 1 yd to the Colo 36Similar
Q4 0:18
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
94.4%
Jarek Broussard run for no gain to the Colo 36Similar
Q4 0:05
4TH & 7
OWN 36
+26
94.2%
Josh Watts punt for 41 yds , Anthony Gould returns for 26 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 23FG
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0515% → 58%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
85.0%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Anthony Gould for 9 yds to the Colo 42Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+60
42.3%
Everett Hayes 60 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 25MISSED FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
10.4%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete LOWE, Trey rush up the middle for a gain of 6 yards to the COL19 (LEWIS, Isaiah). PENALTY OSU Holding enforced 10 yards from the COL25 to the COL35 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 20
OPP 35
+9
10.6%
Jarek Broussard run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 9 for a 1ST down Trey Lowe run for 9 yds to the Colo 16 Jarek Broussard run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 9 for a 1ST down Trey Lowe run for 9 yds to the Colo 16 Chance Nolan pass complete to Trey Lowe for 6 yds to the Colo 29Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 29
+9
11.2%
COLORADO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 8 B.J. Baylor run for no gain to the Colo 11 COLORADO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 8 B.J. Baylor run for no gain to the Colo 11 Chance Nolan run for 9 yds to the Colo 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:24
Montana Lemonious-Craig 16 Yd pass from Brendon Lewis (Cole Becker Kick)
+48.4
FG · OT 0:00
Timeout OREGON ST, clock 00:00
+48.4
FG · Q4 0:00
Everett Hayes 60 Yd Field Goal
-42.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com