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CAL

California 3 at Arizona 10

ARIZ
2021 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2021 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:39 · Kyle Ostendorp punt for 37 yds, downed at the Cal 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 96Pregame prior−12.9Home team on offense+2.0Score differential−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Garbage-time factor−0.8Blowout margin−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 2:09: Nick Lopez 34 yd FG GOOD — CAL win probability +8.4 pts (now 58%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:02: Direct snap to WILEY, Michael rush to the right for no gain to the ARI25 (PUSKAS, Ryan). PENALTY ARI Holding on LINES, Alex enforced 10 yards from the ARI25 to the ARI15 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). — ARIZ win probability +5.3 pts (now 48%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  3. PUNT · Q4 4:56: Jamieson Sheahan punt for 51 yds , Stanley Berryhill III returns for 25 yds to the Ariz 45 — ARIZ win probability +6.0 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Tied - offense's timeout count is neutral here).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:49: Stanley Berryhill III run for 9 yds to the Cal 46 — ARIZ win probability +6.9 pts (now 60%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:17: M. Wiley run for 10 yds for a TD, (T. Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +29.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 8CAL made the numbers' call on 12 of 13
  1. Q1 12:49CAL 4th & 6 at CAL 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:06CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:39ARIZ 4th & 3 at CAL 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    38.5%−0.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:51CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:21CAL 4th & 13 at CAL 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−1.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:39ARIZ 4th & 2 at ARIZ 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:20CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−0.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:40ARIZ 4th & 16 at ARIZ 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−2.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:19CAL 4th & 9 at CAL 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:31ARIZ 4th & 7 at ARIZ 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:12CAL 4th & 12 at CAL 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−1.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:39ARIZ 4th & 6 at CAL 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    46.1%−2.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.0%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:53CAL 4th & 19 at CAL 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−4.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:46ARIZ 4th & 8 at CAL 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.8%
    87% to make
    Punt
    39.5%−11.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:09CAL 4th & 10 at ARIZ 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−2.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    30.9%−11.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:35CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:43ARIZ 4th & 3 at ARIZ 28, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%−1.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:09CAL 4th & 17 at CAL 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−10.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:38ARIZ 4th & 6 at ARIZ 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−1.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:56CAL 4th & 12 at CAL 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−7.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.8%
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:26CAL 4th & 12 at CAL 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.4%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q4 2:17ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−2.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:5475% → 74%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
24.7%
Christopher Brooks run for 5 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
24.9%
Christopher Brooks run for 3 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-4
25.3%
Damien Moore run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 29Similar
Q1 12:49
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
25.7%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 49 yds, downed at the Ariz 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2INT
12 plays · 71 yds · 3:2626% → 28%
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
25.8%
Will Plummer pass complete to Dorian Singer for 5 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+8
25.9%
Will Plummer run for 8 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+30
26.4%
Tayvian Cunningham run for 30 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+17
26.9%
Will Plummer run for 17 yds to the Cal 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
27.1%
Stevie Rocker Jr. run for 3 yds to the Cal 15Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 7
OPP 15
0
27.5%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+8
27.5%
Will Plummer pass complete to Anthony Simpson for 8 yds to the Cal 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
28.0%
Michael Wiley run for no gain to the Cal 7Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
28.3%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
28.2%
Will Plummer pass intercepted return for no gain to the Cal 18Similar
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-7
27.6%
MOORE, Damien rush to the right for a gain of 7 yards to the CAL25 (TURNER, Jaxen). PENALTY CAL Holding on JOHNSON, Everett enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the CAL18 to the CAL9 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:2372% → 71%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 19
OWN 9
+17
27.9%
Ryan Glover pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 17 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+13
27.8%
Ryan Glover pass complete to Justin Richard Baker for 13 yds to the Cal 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
27.9%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Trevon Clark) to the Cal 33Similar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 16
OWN 33
0
28.7%
Ryan Glover pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 16
OWN 33
+6
29.0%
Christopher Brooks run for 6 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
29.1%
Ryan Glover pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:06
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
29.5%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 37 yds, downed at the Ariz 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:0530% → 32%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
30.1%
Will Plummer pass complete to Dorian Singer for 7 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+2
30.7%
Stevie Rocker Jr. run for 2 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+4
30.6%
Stevie Rocker Jr. run for 4 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
31.0%
Stevie Rocker Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 34Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+14
30.7%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 14 yds to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
31.7%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
31.9%
Jalen John run for no gain to the Ariz 48Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+7
31.7%
Will Plummer run for 7 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q1 2:39
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
32.4%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3669% → 68%
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
30.8%
Christopher Brooks run for no gain to the Cal 20Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
31.0%
Ryan Glover pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:58
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
31.5%
Ryan Glover pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:51
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
32.0%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tayvian Cunningham at the Ariz 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6INT
12 plays · 40 yds · 3:2133% → 36%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
32.6%
Will Plummer pass complete to Drake Anderson for 7 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 3
OWN 44
0
33.4%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+6
33.2%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
50
+1
33.9%
Will Plummer run for 1 yd to the Cal 49Similar
Q1 0:19
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+10
34.3%
Drake Anderson run for 10 yds to the Cal 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
34.6%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
34.6%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:33
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+12
34.4%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 12 yds to the Cal 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
35.5%
Jalen John run for 1 yd to the Cal 26Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+3
36.2%
run for 3 yds to the Cal 23Similar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
35.9%
Luke Ashworth pass intercepted return for no gain to the Cal 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:4868% → 66%
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
32.5%
Ryan Glover pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
32.9%
Ryan Glover pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 2 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q2 12:28
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
33.3%
Ryan Glover pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:28
4TH & 8
OWN 36
-5
34.1%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cal 31Similar
Q2 12:21
4TH & 13
OWN 31
+54
34.5%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 44 yds ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Treydan Stukes) to the Ariz 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:1935% → 36%
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
34.9%
Drake Anderson run for no gain to the Ariz 15Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+11
35.1%
Michael Wiley run for 11 yds to the Ariz 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
35.9%
Michael Wiley run for 3 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+5
36.2%
Michael Wiley run for 5 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 2
OWN 34
0
36.6%
Michael Wiley run for no gain to the Ariz 34Similar
Q2 9:39
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
36.0%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 58 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0064% → 63%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
35.7%
Ryan Glover run for no gain to the Cal 8Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+3
36.2%
Ryan Glover pass complete to Justin Richard Baker for 3 yds to the Cal 11Similar
Q2 8:34
3RD & 7
OWN 11
0
36.4%
Ryan Glover pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:20
4TH & 7
OWN 11
0
37.2%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 56 yds, downed at the Ariz 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:3338% → 37%
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
37.8%
Jamarye Joiner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-3
37.9%
Michael Wiley run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 30Similar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 13
OWN 30
0
37.0%
Jamarye Joiner sacked by Ethan Saunders for 0 yards to the Ariz 27Similar
Q2 6:40
4TH & 16
OWN 27
+17
36.8%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 50 yds , Kekoa Crawford returns for 17 yds to the Cal 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5366% → 63%
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
33.8%
Ryan Glover pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 5 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
33.3%
Ryan Glover pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
33.7%
Ryan Glover sacked by Kyon Barrs for 0 yards to the Cal 41Similar
Q2 5:19
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
36.8%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Stanley Berryhill III at the Ariz 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:3139% → 39%
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
39.1%
Stanley Berryhill III run for 1 yd to the Ariz 14Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 9
OWN 14
0
39.7%
Will Plummer run for no gain to the Ariz 14Similar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 9
OWN 14
+10
39.1%
Will Plummer run for 10 yds to the Ariz 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
40.6%
Jalen John run for 1 yd to the Ariz 25Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
40.4%
Will Plummer sacked by Cameron Goode for 0 yards to the Ariz 20Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 14
OWN 20
-5
39.1%
ARIZONA Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 15Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 19
OWN 15
+12
39.3%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 12 yds to the Ariz 27 ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Josh McCauley) declinedSimilar
Q2 1:31
4TH & 7
OWN 27
+1
38.8%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 52 yds , Kekoa Crawford returns for 1 yd to the Cal 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:1362% → 60%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
37.6%
Christopher Brooks run for 13 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
37.1%
Christopher Brooks run for 3 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-5
36.0%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, False Start (McKade Mettauer) to the Cal 33Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 12
OWN 33
0
38.3%
Ryan Glover pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 12
OWN 33
0
39.1%
Ryan Glover pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 12
OWN 33
0
40.0%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tayvian Cunningham at the Ariz 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0841% → 42%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
41.4%
Will Plummer pass complete to Dorian Singer for 4 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+1
42.0%
Drake Anderson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:0541% → 43%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
41.0%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stevie Rocker Jr. for 3 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
41.4%
Will Plummer pass complete to Dorian Singer for 11 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
42.8%
Stevie Rocker Jr. run for 8 yds to the Ariz 47Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+4
44.5%
Stevie Rocker Jr. run for 4 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
45.1%
Will Plummer run for 5 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 5
OPP 44
-1
45.6%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 45Similar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
44.6%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:39
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
42.5%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 37 yds, downed at the Cal 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:3061% → 58%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
39.2%
Christopher Brooks run for 5 yds to the Cal 13Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+11
39.6%
Ryan Glover pass complete to Jake Tonges for 11 yds to the Cal 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
39.5%
Ryan Glover pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
39.7%
Ryan Glover pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:12
3RD & 10
OWN 24
0
40.9%
Ryan Glover sacked by Kyon Barrs for 0 yards to the Cal 15Similar
Q3 10:53
4TH & 19
OWN 15
0
42.5%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 57 yds, downed at the Ariz 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17FG
11 plays · 61 yds · 4:5543% → 54%
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
43.1%
Will Plummer pass complete to Alex Lines for 3 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+14
43.6%
Stanley Berryhill III run for 14 yds to the Ariz 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
46.5%
Drake Anderson run for no gain to the Ariz 45Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+15
45.7%
PLUMMER, Will pass to the left incomplete intended for CASTEEL, BJ thrown to the CAL38. PENALTY CAL Pass Interference on YOUNG, Isaiah enforced 15 yards to the CAL40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
48.3%
run for 2 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+4
48.5%
Michael Wiley run for 4 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+21
48.4%
Will Plummer run for 21 yds to the Cal 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
50.3%
Michael Wiley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 14Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+1
50.6%
Stevie Rocker Jr. run for 1 yd to the Cal 13Similar
Q3 6:16
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+2
49.5%
Stanley Berryhill III run for 2 yds to the Cal 11Similar
Q3 5:46
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+29
53.9%
Tyler Loop 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18FG
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:1948% → 58%
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
51.6%
Ryan Glover pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 30 yds to the Ariz 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
47.1%
Ryan Glover pass complete to Monroe Young for 3 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+6
47.3%
Ryan Glover run for 6 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+4
48.4%
Damien Moore run for 4 yds to the Ariz 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
47.2%
ARIZONA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kyon Barrs) to the Ariz 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
47.8%
Damien Moore run for 3 yds to the Ariz 13Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
48.0%
Ryan Glover sacked by Jalen Harris and Jerry Roberts for 0 yards to the Ariz 16Similar
Q3 2:14
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
50.9%
Ryan Glover pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:09
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+34
42.5%
Nick Lopez 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19INT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:0248% → 46%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
47.7%
Direct snap to WILEY, Michael rush to the right for no gain to the ARI25 (PUSKAS, Ryan). PENALTY ARI Holding on LINES, Alex enforced 10 yards from the ARI25 to the ARI15 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
47.5%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+6
47.5%
Will Plummer pass complete to Michael Wiley for 6 yds to the Ariz 21Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
45.9%
Will Plummer pass intercepted return for no gain to the Cal 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:0356% → 56%
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
44.2%
ARIZONA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jaxen Turner) to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
41.5%
Ryan Glover pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+7
42.7%
Christopher Brooks run for 7 yds to the Ariz 49Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 3
OPP 49
-2
41.1%
Christopher Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 49Similar
Q4 13:35
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
44.5%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Stanley Berryhill III at the Ariz 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:4249% → 48%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+13
48.9%
Will Plummer pass complete to Alex Lines for 13 yds to the Ariz 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
49.9%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
49.8%
Stevie Rocker Jr. run for 5 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+2
49.1%
Will Plummer run for 2 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q4 11:43
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
48.2%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Kekoa Crawford at the Cal 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 2:1854% → 48%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
46.4%
DeCarlos Brooks run for no gain to the Cal 18Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-20
47.0%
BROOKS, DeCarlos rush to the right for a gain of 20 yards to the CAL38 (YOUNG, Jaydin). PENALTY CAL Holding on METTAUER, McKade enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the CAL18 to the CAL9 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 19
OWN 9
+1
48.3%
Damien Moore run for 1 yd to the Cal 10Similar
Q4 9:46
3RD & 18
OWN 10
+1
50.0%
Ryan Glover pass complete to Justin Richard Baker for 1 yd to the Cal 11Similar
Q4 9:09
4TH & 17
OWN 11
0
52.0%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 49 yds , Stanley Berryhill III returns for no gain to the Ariz 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0456% → 53%
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
56.2%
Will Plummer run for 2 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+2
56.9%
run for 2 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
55.7%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:38
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
52.6%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 55 yds, downed at the Cal 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:3851% → 47%
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
49.5%
Ryan Glover pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
50.0%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, False Start (Valentino Daltoso) to the Cal 0Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+15
50.0%
GLOVER, Ryan pass to the left incomplete intended for CLARK, Trevon thrown to the CAL25. PENALTY ARI Personal Foul enforced 15 yards from the CAL1 to the CAL16 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
48.7%
ARIZONA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
46.8%
Christopher Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 30Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+7
48.5%
Ryan Glover pass complete to Christopher Brooks for 7 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 4
OWN 37
-8
46.7%
Christopher Brooks run for a loss of 8 yards to the Cal 29Similar
Q4 4:56
4TH & 12
OWN 29
+25
52.7%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 51 yds , Stanley Berryhill III returns for 25 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 25TD
10 plays · 55 yds · 2:3260% → 96%
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
59.6%
Stanley Berryhill III run for 9 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+2
61.5%
Drake Anderson run for 2 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+19
61.9%
Will Plummer pass complete to Dorian Singer for 19 yds to the Cal 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
63.8%
Drake Anderson run for 6 yds to the Cal 19Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+4
64.1%
Clay Markoff run for 4 yds to the Cal 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
64.4%
Jalen John run for 1 yd to the Cal 14Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+4
66.7%
run for 4 yds to the Cal 10Similar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+10
95.5%
M. Wiley run for 10 yds for a TD, (T. Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 26DOWNS
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:408% → 7%
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.7%
Ryan Glover sacked by Paris Shand and Kyon Barrs for 0 yards to the Cal 23Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
91.9%
Ryan Glover pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:34
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
92.4%
Ryan Glover pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:26
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
92.8%
Ryan Glover pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:17
M. Wiley run for 10 yds for a TD, (T. Loop KICK)
+29.8
FG · Q3 2:09
Nick Lopez 34 yd FG GOOD
-8.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:49
Stanley Berryhill III run for 9 yds to the Cal 46
+6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com