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ARIZ

Arizona 34 at USC 41

USC
2021 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2021 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGFGFGFGEnd of GameFG-6.6USC 86.7%Tyler Loop 40 yd FG GOODAWAY 34 - HOME 41 · Q4 1:26
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:26 · Tyler Loop 40 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 195Pregame prior+1.6Home team on offense+15.1Score differential+2.8Garbage-time factor+5.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.7Time remaining+2.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:36: Michael Wiley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +5.2 pts (now 8%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:32: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 15 yds for a TD, (Alex Stadthaus KICK) — USC win probability +3.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:50: Will Plummer run for 16 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +6.8 pts (now 11%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 6:04: Tyler Loop 25 yd FG GOOD — ARIZ win probability +4.0 pts (now 14%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:26: Tyler Loop 40 yd FG GOOD — ARIZ win probability +6.6 pts (now 13%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ARIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 6:08ARIZ 4th & 20 at ARIZ 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:45USC 4th & 1 at ARIZ 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    89.4%−0.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    89.4%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:25USC 4th & 18 at ARIZ 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    89.0%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:51ARIZ 4th & 5 at ARIZ 25, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:31ARIZ 4th & 26 at USC 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−0.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    11.3%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:25ARIZ 4th & 17 at USC 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.1%
    49% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:48USC 4th & 5 at ARIZ 6, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    88.8%−4.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:45ARIZ 4th & 9 at ARIZ 38, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:45ARIZ 4th & 9 at ARIZ 38, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:45USC 4th & 21 at USC 25, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−1.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:59USC 4th & 5 at ARIZ 40, up 10
    Close callPunted · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    90.2%−0.7
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.5%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:04ARIZ 4th & 8 at USC 8, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.9%−1.6
    90% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−5.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:19USC 4th & 3 at ARIZ 23, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.4%−0.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    88.7%−4.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:26ARIZ 4th & 7 at USC 23, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.9%−0.8
    70% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ARIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:23USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:31ARIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 9:53USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:59USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:16USC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:36ARIZ Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:32USC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:50ARIZ Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3794% → 94%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.2%
Keaontay Ingram run for 5 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
94.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Malcolm Epps for 6 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
94.2%
Keaontay Ingram run for no gain to the USC 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+15
94.2%
Slovis,Kedon pass incomplete to Washington,Tahj PENALTY ARZ Pass Interference (Rutherford,Isaiah) 15 yards from USC36 to ARZ49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
94.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 15 yds to the Ariz 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
94.2%
Ingram,Keaontay rush for 4 yards gain to the ARZ30 (Hebert,Kenny; Rutherford,Isaiah) PENALTY USC Holding (McKenzie,Jalen) 10 yards from ARZ34 to ARZ44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 44
+15
94.2%
ARIZONA Penalty, Targeting (15 Yards) to the Ariz 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
93.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 15 yds to the Ariz 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
93.6%
Darwin Barlow run for 1 yd to the Ariz 3Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
93.8%
Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds for a TD, (Alex Stadthaus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:456% → 7%
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.7%
Will Plummer pass incomplete to Tayvian CunninghamSimilar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.6%
Jamarye Joiner pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 2 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+73
93.2%
Jamarye Joiner pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 73 yds for a TD USC Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declined, (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2593% → 94%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
93.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 13 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
93.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 62 yds for a TD, (Alex Stadthaus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 1 yds · 3:297% → 7%
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.4%
Jalen John run for 3 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
93.3%
Jalen John run for 3 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
93.3%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 5 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
93.1%
Michael Wiley run for 1 yd to the Ariz 37Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+3
93.0%
Jamarye Joiner run for 3 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 12
OWN 34
-8
93.0%
Will Plummer sacked by Tuli Tuipulotu for a loss of 8 yards to the Ariz 26Similar
Q1 6:08
4TH & 20
OWN 26
0
93.0%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 48 yds , Gary Bryant Jr. returns for no gain to the USC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5PUNT
14 plays · 34 yds · 4:3493% → 92%
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
93.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 7 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+10
93.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 10 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
93.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Kyle Ford for 14 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
93.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Drake LondonSimilar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+9
93.0%
Keaontay Ingram run for 9 yds to the Ariz 37Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 1
OPP 37
0
92.9%
Keaontay Ingram run for no gain to the Ariz 37Similar
Q1 3:45
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+2
92.7%
Keaontay Ingram run for 2 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
92.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jude Wolfe for 3 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+4
92.9%
Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 3
OPP 28
-10
92.9%
PENALTY USC Holding (Ford,Courtland) 10 yards from ARZ28 to ARZ38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 13
OPP 38
0
92.6%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Drake LondonSimilar
Q1 2:09
3RD & 13
OPP 38
-5
92.2%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Paris Shand for a loss of 5 yards to the Ariz 43Similar
Q1 1:25
4TH & 18
OPP 43
0
91.8%
Ben Griffiths punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6PUNT
12 plays · 40 yds · 3:218% → 8%
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
91.9%
Michael Wiley run for 4 yds to the Ariz 24Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
91.8%
Jalen John run for 1 yd to the Ariz 25Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
91.9%
Will Plummer pass incomplete to Jalen JohnsonSimilar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+32
92.0%
Anthony Pandy run for 32 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+19
91.1%
Will Plummer pass complete to Dorian Singer for 19 yds to the USC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
90.7%
Jamarye Joiner pass incomplete to Jalen JohnsonSimilar
Q2 13:53
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-10
90.7%
(13:58) Rocker Jr.,Stevie rush for 20 yards gain to the USC04 (Pola-Mao,Isaiah), out of bounds PENALTY ARZ Holding (Morgan,Jordan) 10 yards from USC24 to USC34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 20
OPP 34
0
90.9%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 20
OPP 34
-6
91.7%
Will Plummer sacked by Tuli Tuipulotu for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 40Similar
Q2 12:39
4TH & 26
OPP 40
0
91.9%
ARIZONA Penalty, Delay Of Game (Stanley Berryhill III) declinedSimilar
Q2 12:31
4TH & 26
OPP 40
0
91.9%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7TD
16 plays · 96 yds · 4:3292% → 94%
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
91.6%
Keaontay Ingram run for 2 yds to the USC 6Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+5
91.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 5 yds to the USC 11Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 3
OWN 11
+6
91.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Drake London for 6 yds to the USC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
91.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Drake LondonSimilar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+13
91.3%
Keaontay Ingram run for 13 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
91.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Drake London for 10 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
91.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Drake LondonSimilar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
91.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Gary Bryant Jr.Similar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+17
91.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 17 yds to the Ariz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
91.8%
(09:36) Dart,Jaxson pass incomplete to Washington,Tahj PENALTY ARZ Pass Interference (Rutherford,Isaiah) 15 yards from ARZ43 to ARZ28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
91.9%
Keaontay Ingram run for 5 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+4
91.9%
Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds to the Ariz 19Similar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+5
91.6%
Keaontay Ingram run for 5 yds to the Ariz 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
91.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tahj WashingtonSimilar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+12
92.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Drake London for 12 yds to the Ariz 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.1%
Drake London 2 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Alex Stadthaus Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8FUMBLE
4 plays · 37 yds · 0:477% → 7%
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
93.3%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 10 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
93.2%
Will Plummer pass complete to Alex Lines for 19 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
92.6%
Will Plummer pass complete to BJ Casteel for 8 yds BJ Casteel fumbled, forced by Chris Steele, recovered by USC Isaiah Pola-MaoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 2:3894% → 97%
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
93.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 11 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
93.9%
(06:35) Dart,Jaxson pass incomplete to Epps,Malcolm PENALTY ARZ Pass Interference (Young,Jaydin) 15 yards from USC49 to ARZ36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
94.0%
Keaontay Ingram run for 2 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+19
94.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 19 yds to the Ariz 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
94.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 3 yds to the Ariz 12Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+6
94.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Kyle Ford for 6 yds to the Ariz 6Similar
Q2 4:16
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+6
97.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Drake London for 6 yds for a TD, (Alex Stadthaus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:333% → 8%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.5%
Jamarye Joiner pass incomplete to Michael WileySimilar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.7%
Jalen John run for 3 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+50
97.7%
Will Plummer pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 35 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Isaac Taylor-Stuart) to the USC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
96.9%
BJ Casteel run for 3 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 13
OPP 25
+24
97.4%
Will Plummer pass complete to Alex Lines for 24 yds to the USC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.2%
Michael Wiley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:5394% → 98%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
93.9%
Keaontay Ingram run for 13 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
94.2%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Lake McReeSimilar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+11
94.1%
Keaontay Ingram run for 11 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
94.2%
Keaontay Ingram run for 2 yds to the Ariz 49Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+9
94.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Lake McRee for 9 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
94.2%
(01:12) Slovis,Kedon pass incomplete to McRee,Lake broken up by Mason,Trevon PENALTY ARZ Illegal Substitution 5 yards from ARZ40 to ARZ35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 5
OPP 35
+9
94.4%
Vavae Malepeai run for 9 yds to the Ariz 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
94.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tahj Washington for 11 yds to the Ariz 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
98.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 15 yds for a TD, (Alex Stadthaus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 24 yds · 0:092% → 2%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
98.0%
Jalen John run for 6 yds to the Ariz 22Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+18
97.8%
Will Plummer run for 18 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:213% → 5%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.0%
Michael Wiley run for 3 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q3 14:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
96.9%
USC Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
96.8%
Drake Anderson run for 4 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+21
96.8%
Will Plummer pass complete to BJ Casteel for 21 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
96.5%
(13:18) Joiner,Jamarye pass complete to Berryhill III,Stanley for 10 yards to the USC16 (Pola-Mao,Isaiah) PENALTY ARZ Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Berryhill III,Stanley) 5 yards from USC26 to USC31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 15
OPP 31
+4
96.8%
Drake Anderson run for 4 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 11
OPP 27
0
96.8%
Jamarye Joiner pass incomplete to Stevie Rocker Jr.Similar
Q3 12:04
3RD & 11
OPP 27
-6
97.1%
Will Plummer sacked by Drake Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 33Similar
Q3 11:25
4TH & 17
OPP 33
+51
95.1%
Lucas Havrisik 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14INT TD
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:2497% → 94%
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
96.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tahj Washington for 1 yd to the USC 34Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
93.7%
Anthony Pandy 0 Yd Interception Return (Tyler Loop Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15FG
13 plays · 68 yds · 3:3894% → 96%
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
93.7%
Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+4
93.9%
Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
94.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tahj Washington for 11 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
94.3%
Darwin Barlow run for 9 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+3
94.3%
Darwin Barlow run for 3 yds to the Ariz 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
94.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Gary Bryant Jr.Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+9
94.4%
Darwin Barlow run for 9 yds to the Ariz 16Similar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+5
94.2%
(08:19) Barlow,Darwin rush for 1 yard gain to the ARZ15 (Hodge Jr.,Rashie) PENALTY ARZ Illegal Substitution 5 yards from ARZ16 to ARZ11, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
94.4%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the Ariz 8Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+2
94.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds to the Ariz 6Similar
Q3 6:52
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
94.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Kyle FordSimilar
Q3 6:48
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+23
96.1%
Alex Stadthaus 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 2:474% → 4%
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.6%
Will Plummer run for 6 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
95.3%
Jalen John run for 2 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
95.4%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 4 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
95.4%
Jamarye Joiner sacked by Chase Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 35Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+3
96.0%
Jamarye Joiner run for 3 yds to the Ariz 38Similar
Q3 3:54
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
95.9%
Will Plummer pass incomplete to Jalen JohnsonSimilar
Q3 3:45
4TH & 9
OWN 38
+2
96.2%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 38 yds , Gary Bryant Jr. returns for 2 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q3 3:45
4TH & 9
OWN 38
+2
96.2%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 38 yds , Gary Bryant Jr. returns for 2 yds to the USC 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 1:4597% → 96%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
96.5%
Darwin Barlow run for 6 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
96.6%
PENALTY USC UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting ARZ UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
96.7%
Darwin Barlow run for 3 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q3 2:41
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-9
96.5%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Jalen Harris for a loss of 9 yards to the USC 30Similar
Q3 2:00
4TH & 16
OWN 30
-5
96.1%
PENALTY USC False Start (Williams,Chase) 5 yards from USC30 to USC25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:45
4TH & 21
OWN 25
0
96.2%
Ben Griffiths punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tayvian Cunningham at the Ariz 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:414% → 11%
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
95.9%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 14 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
95.9%
Will Plummer pass complete to BJ Casteel for 11 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
95.7%
Jalen John run for 6 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q3 0:46
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+6
95.5%
Jalen John run for 6 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
95.6%
Will Plummer pass complete to Jalen John for 6 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+8
95.7%
Will Plummer pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 8 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
96.0%
Drake Anderson run for 1 yd to the USC 10Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-6
96.0%
Will Plummer sacked by Jacob Lichtenstein for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 16Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
+16
89.2%
Will Plummer run for 16 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19PUNT
13 plays · 35 yds · 3:3791% → 92%
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.9%
Keaontay Ingram run for no gain to the USC 25Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
90.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 12 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+31
91.1%
Keaontay Ingram run for 46 yds to the ARIZONA 17 USC Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Liam Jimmons) to the USC 40Similar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 7
OWN 40
-5
91.5%
PENALTY USC Delay Of Game 5 yards from USC40 to USC35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 12
OWN 35
+6
90.7%
Darwin Barlow run for 6 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+1
91.6%
Darwin Barlow run for 1 yd to the USC 40Similar
Q4 9:57
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
90.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Vavae MalepeaiSimilar
Q4 9:57
4TH & 7
OWN 40
+15
90.3%
PENALTY ARZ UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Hodge Jr.,Rashie) 15 yards from USC40 to ARZ45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
91.8%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+2
91.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q4 9:07
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
91.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tahj WashingtonSimilar
Q4 8:59
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
91.5%
Ben Griffiths punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20FG
14 plays · 72 yds · 2:558% → 16%
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
92.0%
Will Plummer pass complete to Michael Wiley for 8 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+12
90.8%
Michael Wiley run for 12 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
90.5%
Will Plummer pass complete to BJ Casteel for 5 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
90.2%
Will Plummer pass incomplete to Stanley Berryhill IIISimilar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+9
91.3%
Will Plummer pass complete to Dorian Singer for 9 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
90.6%
Will Plummer pass incomplete to Alex LinesSimilar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+13
90.5%
Will Plummer run for 13 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
90.4%
Will Plummer pass complete to Alex Lines for 5 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+5
90.5%
Jalen John run for 5 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
90.5%
(06:24) Plummer,Will pass incomplete to Johnson,Jalen PENALTY USC Pass Interference (Williams,Jayden) 15 yards from USC23 to USC08, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
90.5%
Will Plummer pass incomplete to Dorian SingerSimilar
Q4 6:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
90.4%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
86.4%
Tyler Loop 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q4 6:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
84.3%
Will Plummer pass incomplete to BJ CasteelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21FG
6 plays · 52 yds · 2:3492% → 94%
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+45
91.9%
Keaontay Ingram run for 45 yds to the Ariz 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
93.1%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+8
94.1%
Keaontay Ingram run for 8 yds to the Ariz 24Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+1
94.3%
Keaontay Ingram run for 1 yd to the Ariz 23Similar
Q4 3:19
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+40
94.1%
Alex Stadthaus 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 1:395% → 13%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.9%
Will Plummer run for 4 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
94.3%
Will Plummer pass incomplete to Stanley Berryhill IIISimilar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
94.9%
Will Plummer pass complete to Drake Anderson for 8 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
94.1%
Will Plummer pass incomplete to BJ CasteelSimilar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
94.1%
Will Plummer pass incomplete to Anthony SimpsonSimilar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+37
95.1%
Will Plummer pass complete to Dorian Singer for 37 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
92.5%
Arizona pass incomplete PENALTY ARZ Illegal Formation 5 yards from USC26 to USC31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 15
OPP 31
0
93.0%
Will Plummer pass incomplete to Dorian SingerSimilar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
93.5%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 15
OPP 31
+8
93.3%
Will Plummer pass complete to Alex Lines for 8 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q4 1:26
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+40
86.7%
Tyler Loop 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23END OF GAME
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:2197% → 97%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
97.0%
Keaontay Ingram run for 1 yd to the Ariz 46Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+8
97.0%
Keaontay Ingram run for 8 yds to the Ariz 38Similar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+7
97.0%
Keaontay Ingram run for 7 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
97.2%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:50
Will Plummer run for 16 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)
-6.8
FG · Q4 1:26
Tyler Loop 40 yd FG GOOD
-6.6
TD · Q2 2:36
Michael Wiley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)
-5.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com