2021 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2021 · Stanford Stadium
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Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadWASH aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreWASH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:17 · Peyton Henry 35 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 0:00: Peyton Henry 32 yd FG GOOD — WASH win probability +6.9 pts (now 64%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- FG · Q3 5:17: Peyton Henry 35 yd FG GOOD — WASH win probability +3.7 pts (now 70%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:52: Tanner McKee run for 1 yd for a TD (Joshua Karty KICK) — STAN win probability +25.1 pts (now 56%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- FG · Q4 7:05: Joshua Karty 43 yd FG GOOD — STAN win probability +11.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:21: Dylan Morris pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 20 yds for a TD — WASH win probability +55.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 6WASH made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 7:56STAN 4th & 3 at WASH 17, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 58.7% before the snapGo for it58.7%51% to convertField goalTheir call58.6%−0.180% to makePunt57.6%−1.1average punt
- Q1 6:59WASH 4th & 4 at WASH 31, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.1% before the snapGo for it40.2%−0.248% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.4%average punt
- Q1 4:46STAN 4th & 8 at STAN 35, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snapGo for it58.7%−0.434% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.2%average punt
- Q2 14:07WASH 4th & 6 at STAN 6, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.7% before the snapGo for it40.3%−0.231% to convertField goalTheir call40.4%91% to makePunt37.1%−3.4average punt
- Q2 6:39WASH 4th & 6 at STAN 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.8% before the snapGo for it44.2%−0.238% to convertField goalTheir call44.4%77% to makePunt39.6%−4.8average punt
- Q2 3:00STAN 4th & 5 at STAN 45, down 3Close callPunted · 52.8% before the snapGo for it52.5%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.2%−0.3average punt
- Q3 12:19WASH 4th & 3 at WASH 44, up 6Close callPunted · 57.9% before the snapGo for it58.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.1%−0.6average punt
- Q3 11:05STAN 4th & 3 at STAN 38, down 6Close callPunted · 44.2% before the snapGo for it44.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.2%−0.6average punt
- Q3 9:17WASH 4th & 7 at WASH 33, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snapGo for it58.0%−2.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.0%average punt
- Q3 5:17WASH 4th & 3 at STAN 16, up 6Close callKicked a field goal · 62.8% before the snapGo for it62.5%51% to convertField goalTheir call61.8%−0.781% to makePunt51.9%−10.5average punt
- Q4 10:30WASH 4th & 1 at STAN 45, up 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call57.6%70% to convertField goal44.3%−13.325% to makePunt48.9%−8.7average punt
- Q4 7:05STAN 4th & 3 at WASH 26, down 2Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.7% before the snapGo for it50.7%−0.152% to convertField goalTheir call50.7%64% to makePunt34.4%−16.3average punt
- Q4 3:12WASH 4th & 5 at STAN 35, down 1Numbers favored field goal by 3.3 ptsWent for it · 40.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call38.2%−3.342% to convertField goal41.5%45% to makePunt32.2%−9.3average punt
- Q4 2:51STAN 4th & 9 at STAN 35, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.8% before the snapGo for it62.6%−3.531% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q4 12:52STAN Touchdown, down 3 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call46.7%−<0.197% to makeGo for two46.8%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSTANDrive 1FG14 plays · 58 yds · 7:0451% → 53%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
50.7%
Tanner McKee pass complete to E.J. Smith for 11 yds to the Stanf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
50.7%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Austin Jones for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
50
0
50.7%
Tanner McKee pass complete to E.J. Smith for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
50.7%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Austin Jones for 10 yds to the Wash 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 35
-2
50.7%
Tanner McKee sacked by Voi Tunuufi for a loss of 2 yards to the Wash 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+13
50.7%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 13 yds to the Wash 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5747% → 47%
Q1 6:59
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+5
53.5%
Race Porter punt for 41 yds , Bryce Farrell returns for 5 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 2:1353% → 53%
Q1 6:59
3RD & 3
OWN 40
-5
53.0%
Tanner McKee sacked by Voi Tunuufi for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 4FG12 plays · 57 yds · 5:3947% → 49%
STANDrive 5INT9 plays · 60 yds · 2:5153% → 56%
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
53.2%
PENALTY STA False Start (Fisk,Tucker) 5 yards from STA25 to STA20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+23
53.1%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 23 yds to the Stanf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+23
54.1%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 23 yds to the Wash 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
55.4%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 14 yds to the Wash 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
55.4%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 5 yds to the Wash 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 6FG8 plays · 50 yds · 4:3748% → 52%
STANDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 3:3249% → 49%
Q2 6:32
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+11
49.3%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Houston Heimuli for 11 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
51.0%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 7 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 17
OWN 33
+4
48.8%
Tanner McKee pass complete to E.J. Smith for 4 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 13
OWN 37
+8
48.1%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Lukas Ungar for 8 yds to the Stanf 45Similar
Q2 3:00
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
48.7%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Giles Jackson at the Wash 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 8FG17 plays · 81 yds · 3:0051% → 64%
Q2 2:55
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+11
48.2%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Rome Odunze for 11 yds to the Wash 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
45.1%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Cade Otton for 4 yds pass complete to for 10 yds fumbled, recovered by StanfSimilar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+5
44.5%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Sean McGrew for 5 yds to the Wash 40Similar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
43.4%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Cade Otton for 9 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+16
42.1%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 16 yds to the Stanf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
41.1%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Cameron Davis for 4 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4160% → 61%
Q3 12:19
4TH & 3
OWN 44
+21
38.8%
Race Porter punt for 46 yds , Bryce Farrell returns for 21 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1443% → 41%
Q3 12:19
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+4
42.7%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 4 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4861% → 61%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
38.6%
Morris,Dylan pass incomplete to Bynum,Terrell PENALTY U W Holding (Bainivalu,Henry) 10 yards from U W30 to U W20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:17
4TH & 7
OWN 33
+23
38.9%
Race Porter punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Stanf 20 , Bryce Farrell returns for 23 yds to the STANFORD 44 STANFORD Penalty, Offensive Holding (Noah Williams) to the Stanf 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 12FUMBLE4 plays · 14 yds · 1:2341% → 43%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
41.3%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 23 yds to the Stanf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-9
42.5%
Tanner McKee sacked by Carson Bruener for a loss of 9 yards to the Stanf 34 Tanner McKee fumbled, recovered by Wash Sav'ell Smalls , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-9
42.5%
Tanner McKee sacked by Carson Bruener for a loss of 9 yards to the Stanf 34 Tanner McKee fumbled, recovered by Wash Sav'ell Smalls , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 13FG6 plays · 18 yds · 2:3767% → 70%
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
33.1%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Devin Culp for 3 yds to the Stanf 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 14TD21 plays · 75 yds · 7:2532% → 56%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
31.5%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Lukas Ungar for 5 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
32.5%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 16 yds to the Wash 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+6
34.4%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 6 yds to the Wash 41Similar
Q3 5:17
4TH & 4
OPP 41
+5
32.6%
McKee,Tanner pass incomplete to Yurosek,Benjamin PENALTY U W Offside (Tupuola-Fetui,Zion) 5 yards from U W41 to U W36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
36.7%
Tanner McKee pass complete to E.J. Smith for 2 yds to the Wash 22Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+5
36.7%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 5 yds to the Wash 17Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 1
OPP 3
-5
30.6%
PENALTY STA False Start (Symonds,Jay) 5 yards from U W03 to U W08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 15DOWNS6 plays · 20 yds · 2:2260% → 60%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 16FG8 plays · 29 yds · 3:2553% → 65%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
52.6%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Austin Jones for 10 yds to the Wash 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+9
53.0%
McKee,Tanner sacked for loss of 4 yards to the U W46 (Bruener,Carson, McDonald,Cooper) PENALTY U W Holding (McDuffie,Trent) 9 yards from U W42 to U W33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 17DOWNS9 plays · 40 yds · 3:5342% → 42%
Q4 7:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+17
58.2%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 17 yds to the Wash 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
53.9%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 16 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
52.5%
Morris,Dylan pass incomplete to Bynum,Terrell broken up by Wyrick,Jimmy PENALTY U W Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Fautanu,Troy) 5 yards from STA40 to STA45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 14
OPP 44
+4
55.3%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Rome Odunze for 4 yds to the Stanf 40Similar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+5
54.5%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Rome Odunze for 5 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 1 yds · 0:2168% → 69%
Q4 3:02
4TH & 4
OWN 40
-5
70.5%
PENALTY STA Delay Of Game (Sanborn,Ryan) 5 yards from STA40 to STA35. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 19TD9 plays · 67 yds · 2:3033% → 97%
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
67.0%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 11 yds to the Wash 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 20INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 21END OF 4TH QUARTER1 play · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:21
Dylan Morris pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 20 yds for a TD
-55.1
TD · Q4 12:52
Tanner McKee run for 1 yd for a TD (Joshua Karty KICK)
+25.1
FG · Q4 7:05
Joshua Karty 43 yd FG GOOD
+11.5