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COLO

Colorado 3 at California 26

CAL
2021 · Week 8 · Oct 23, 2021 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreCOLO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDFGFGEnd of GameFG+0.3CAL 99.4%Dario Longhetto 33 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 26 · Q4 4:56
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:56 · Dario Longhetto 33 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 143Home team on offense+32.8Pregame prior+2.3Score differential+22.4Garbage-time factor+13.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+10.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+8.5
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 9:23: Dario Longhetto 30 yd FG GOOD — CAL win probability +5.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 9:13: Jarek Broussard run for 3 yds to the Cal 36 — COLO win probability +3.2 pts (now 21%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 6:41: Cole Becker 33 yd FG GOOD — COLO win probability +2.2 pts (now 22%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 3:21: Chase Garbers pass complete to Gavin Reinwald for 31 yds for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK) — CAL win probability +9.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. FG · Q2 0:00: Dario Longhetto 51 yd FG GOOD — CAL win probability +5.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 10 of 10COLO made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 12:54COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:42CAL 4th & 9 at COLO 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.7%
    54% to make
    Punt
    71.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:26COLO 4th & 1 at CAL 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.0%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:31COLO 4th & 20 at COLO 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−0.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00CAL 4th & 4 at COLO 32, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    74.4%−0.5
    51% to make
    Punt
    73.8%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:23CAL 4th & 5 at COLO 12, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.5%
    86% to make
    Punt
    70.5%−5.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:41COLO 4th & 4 at CAL 15, down 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.1%−0.2
    83% to make
    Punt
    15.4%−3.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:58COLO 4th & 10 at COLO 36, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:58CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 42, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:04COLO 4th & 8 at COLO 38, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:16CAL 4th & 12 at COLO 40, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    96.1%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:49COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 24, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:54CAL 4th & 14 at CAL 30, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:25CAL 4th & 9 at CAL 46, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:25CAL 4th & 9 at CAL 46, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:28COLO 4th & 25 at COLO 22, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:56CAL 4th & 5 at COLO 15, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−1.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:18COLO 4th & 11 at COLO 20, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:26CAL 4th & 22 at CAL 24, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:05CAL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:21CAL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
COLODrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:0624% → 24%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.5%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Brenden RiceSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
76.5%
Brendon Lewis run for 14 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
76.5%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Chase PenrySimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
76.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jarek Broussard for 2 yds to the Colo 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+11
76.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jarek Broussard for 11 yds to the Colo 48Similar
Q1 12:54
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
75.9%
Josh Watts punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2FG
8 plays · 53 yds · 3:1276% → 76%
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
76.0%
Damien Moore run for 10 yds to the Cal 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
76.0%
Damien Moore run for 4 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
76.0%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jake TongesSimilar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+38
75.9%
Chase Garbers run for 38 yds to the Colo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
76.2%
Christopher Brooks run for no gain to the Colo 31Similar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 9
OPP 31
0
76.2%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Trevon ClarkSimilar
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
76.3%
Damien Moore run for 1 yd to the Colo 31Similar
Q1 9:42
4TH & 9
OPP 31
+49
75.7%
Dario Longhetto 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 3DOWNS
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:1624% → 25%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
75.7%
Jarek Broussard run for 3 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+14
75.6%
Jarek Broussard run for 14 yds to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
75.4%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Jarek BroussardSimilar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
75.5%
Jarek Broussard run for no gain to the Colo 42Similar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+9
75.7%
Brendon Lewis run for 9 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q1 7:26
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+1
75.2%
Jarek Broussard run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 1:2176% → 78%
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
50
+8
75.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 8 yds to the Colo 42Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+18
75.8%
Christopher Brooks run for 18 yds to the Colo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
77.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Keleki Latu for 24 yds for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 24 yds · 4:3423% → 22%
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.6%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Brenden RiceSimilar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
76.6%
Jarek Broussard run for 2 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+21
76.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jarek Broussard for 21 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
76.0%
Jarek Broussard run for 5 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+4
75.9%
Jarek Broussard run for 4 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+2
75.8%
Jarek Broussard run for 2 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
75.9%
Alex Fontenot run for 1 yd to the Cal 42Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 11
OPP 42
-3
76.0%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Cameron Goode for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 45Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 14
OPP 45
-6
76.6%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Darius Long for a loss of 6 yards to the Colo 49Similar
Q1 1:31
4TH & 20
OWN 49
0
77.6%
Josh Watts punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6FG
15 plays · 68 yds · 7:0877% → 83%
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
76.8%
Brooks,Christopher rush for 8 yards gain to the CAL28 (Perry,Quinn), out of bounds PENALTY CAL Holding (Moore,Collin) 10 yards from CAL20 to CAL10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+8
76.7%
Christopher Brooks run for 8 yds to the Cal 18Similar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+15
76.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brooks for 15 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
76.9%
Chase Garbers run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
77.7%
Chase Garbers run for 3 yds to the Colo 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+2
77.7%
Chris Street run for 2 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+7
77.4%
Chase Garbers run for 7 yds to the Colo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
77.8%
Christopher Brooks run for no gain to the Colo 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+1
77.7%
Christopher Brooks run for 1 yd to the Colo 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+5
77.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Keleki Latu for 5 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+15
77.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 15 yds to the Colo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
77.8%
Chase Garbers run for 3 yds to the Colo 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+2
77.8%
Nikko Remigio run for 2 yds to the Colo 12Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 12
0
77.5%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Marcel DancySimilar
Q2 9:23
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+30
82.5%
Dario Longhetto 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 7FG
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:3221% → 22%
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
79.5%
Jarek Broussard run for 3 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 13
OPP 36
+5
80.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Brady Russell for 5 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q2 9:13
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+10
80.1%
Lewis,Brendon pass incomplete to Russell,Brady PENALTY CAL Holding (Hearns III,Lu-Magia) 10 yards from CAL31 to CAL21, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
79.3%
Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds to the Cal 17Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+4
79.3%
Jarek Broussard run for 4 yds to the Cal 13Similar
Q2 9:13
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+2
79.8%
Jarek Broussard run for 2 yds to the Cal 15Similar
Q2 6:41
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+33
77.6%
Cole Becker 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 3:1378% → 89%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
77.9%
Damien Moore run for 2 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+3
78.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 3 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+15
78.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 15 yds to the Colo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
79.3%
Chase Garbers run for 9 yds to the Colo 37Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+6
79.2%
Damien Moore run for 6 yds to the Colo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
88.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Gavin Reinwald for 31 yds for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 11 yds · 2:2314% → 12%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
86.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Brenden Rice for 6 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
85.8%
Alex Fontenot run for 3 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
87.0%
Alex Fontenot run for 2 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
86.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Daniel Arias for 8 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 2
OWN 44
-8
86.2%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Elijah Hicks for a loss of 8 yards to the Colo 36Similar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
87.6%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Chase PenrySimilar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
87.9%
Josh Watts punt for 45 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for no gain to the Cal 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10FG
8 plays · 50 yds · 0:5891% → 95%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
90.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 12 yds to the Cal 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
90.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 7 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+7
90.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 7 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
91.2%
Chase Garbers run for 5 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+19
91.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 19 yds to the Colo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
89.6%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+51
94.8%
Dario Longhetto 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:5695% → 95%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
94.6%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jake TongesSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
94.5%
Chris Street run for no gain to the Cal 26Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+11
94.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Damien Moore for 11 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
94.7%
Damien Moore run for 6 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+1
94.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 1 yd to the Cal 42Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
94.6%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q3 11:58
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
95.2%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Chase Penry at the Colo 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:546% → 5%
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
94.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Brady Russell for 13 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
94.3%
Alex Fontenot run for 4 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
94.2%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Daniel AriasSimilar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-2
94.2%
Brendon Lewis sacked by JH Tevis for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 38Similar
Q3 10:04
4TH & 8
OWN 38
+17
95.3%
Josh Watts punt for 57 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 17 yds to the Cal 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 38 yds · 5:4896% → 96%
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
96.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 11 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
95.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Damien Moore for 7 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+11
96.0%
Chase Garbers run for 11 yds to the Colo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
95.9%
Christopher Brooks run for 8 yds to the Colo 41Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+1
96.0%
Christopher Brooks run for 1 yd to the Colo 40Similar
Q3 10:04
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+2
95.9%
Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds to the Colo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
96.0%
Moore,Damien rush for 4 yards gain to the COL34 (Wray,Max) PENALTY CAL Holding (Mettauer,McKade) 10 yards from COL38 to COL48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 20
OPP 48
+3
95.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 3 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 23
OWN 49
+11
95.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Damien Moore for 11 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q3 10:04
3RD & 12
OPP 40
0
95.8%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Keleki LatuSimilar
Q3 4:16
4TH & 12
OPP 40
0
96.4%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:273% → 3%
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
96.7%
Alex Fontenot run for 1 yd to the Colo 19Similar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+5
96.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 5 yds to the Colo 24Similar
Q3 4:16
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
96.8%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Chris CarpenterSimilar
Q3 2:49
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
97.3%
Josh Watts punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:5597% → 98%
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
97.1%
Christopher Brooks run for 10 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
97.1%
Christopher Brooks run for 1 yd to the Cal 35Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+5
97.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brooks for 5 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 4
OWN 40
-15
97.2%
Garbers,Chase pass complete to Moore,Collin for 26 yards to the COL34, End Of Play PENALTY CAL Pass Interference (Moore,Collin) 15 yards from CAL40 to CAL25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 19
OWN 25
+5
98.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 5 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 14
OWN 30
0
97.8%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colo 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
97.9%
Brendon Lewis pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 2:2298% → 99%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
98.2%
Damien Moore run for 3 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-4
98.2%
Chase Garbers sacked by Mustafa Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 44Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+7
98.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Keleki Latu for 7 yds to the Colo 49Similar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 4
OPP 49
-5
98.0%
PENALTY CAL False Start (Jerningan,Myles) 5 yards from COL49 to CAL46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:25
4TH & 9
OWN 46
+17
98.5%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CALIFORNIA 22 CALIFORNIA Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Slater Zellers) to the Colo 37Similar
Q4 12:25
4TH & 9
OWN 46
+17
98.5%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CALIFORNIA 22 CALIFORNIA Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Slater Zellers) to the Colo 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -15 yds · 1:571% → 1%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
98.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Alex Fontenot for 2 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-10
98.6%
Brendon Lewis sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the Colo 29Similar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 18
OWN 29
-7
98.7%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Orin Patu for a loss of 7 yards to the Colo 22Similar
Q4 10:28
4TH & 25
OWN 22
+7
98.9%
Josh Watts punt for 57 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 7 yds to the Cal 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 5:3299% → 99%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
98.7%
Chris Street run for 1 yd to the Cal 29Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+2
98.7%
Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+7
98.7%
Chase Garbers run for 7 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
98.8%
Christopher Brooks run for 10 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+18
98.8%
Chris Street run for 18 yds to the Colo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
98.8%
Chris Street run for 3 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+11
98.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jermaine Terry II for 11 yds to the Colo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
98.8%
Marcel Dancy run for 3 yds to the Colo 17Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
98.8%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Trevon ClarkSimilar
Q4 5:22
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+3
99.2%
Marcel Dancy run for 3 ydsSimilar
Q4 5:01
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+5
99.1%
Longhetto,Dario field goal attempt from 38 yards NO GOOD block by Gonzalez,Christian, clock 05:01 recovered by COL Perry,Mark at COL30 Perry,Mark return 70 yards to the CAL00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 05:01 PENALTY COL Offside (Gonzalez,Christian) 5 yards from COL20 to COL15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:56
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+33
99.4%
Dario Longhetto 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:311% → 1%
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
99.3%
Deion Smith run for 3 yds to the Colo 24Similar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 7
OWN 24
-10
99.3%
Smith,Deion rush for 3 yards gain to the COL27 (Woodie III,Raymond), out of bounds PENALTY COL Holding (Pell,Alec) 10 yards from COL24 to COL14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 17
OWN 14
+6
99.3%
Deion Smith run for 6 yds to the Colo 20Similar
Q4 4:49
3RD & 11
OWN 20
0
99.3%
Drew Carter pass incomplete to Daniel AriasSimilar
Q4 3:18
4TH & 11
OWN 20
0
99.4%
Josh Watts punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 2:52100% → 100%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
99.6%
Dancy,Marcel rush for 21 yards gain to the COL43 (Woods,Trevor), out of bounds PENALTY CAL Holding (Mojarro,Elijah) 10 yards from CAL36 to CAL26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+2
99.6%
Marcel Dancy run for 2 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 18
OWN 28
+1
99.5%
Marcel Dancy run for 1 yd to the Cal 27Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 19
OWN 27
+3
99.5%
Marcel Dancy run for 3 yds to the Cal 24Similar
Q4 0:26
4TH & 22
OWN 24
+16
99.7%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colo 49 , Chase Penry returns for 16 yds to the Colo 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 22END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.4%
Deion Smith run for no gain to the Colo 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:21
Chase Garbers pass complete to Gavin Reinwald for 31 yds for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK)
+9.4
FG · Q2 0:00
Dario Longhetto 51 yd FG GOOD
+5.2
FG · Q2 9:23
Dario Longhetto 30 yd FG GOOD
+5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com