2021 · Week 7 · Oct 16, 2021 · Husky Stadium
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Win probability · WASH
modelWASH aheadUCLA aheadconfidence bandkey playWASH scoreUCLA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:52 · Race Porter punt for 52 yds , Logan Loya returns for 17 yds to the UCLA 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 3:33: Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK) — UCLA win probability +7.9 pts (now 66%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:52: Dylan Morris pass complete to Rome Odunze for 26 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +13.6 pts (now 48%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:55: Dylan Morris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +19.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:19: Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Greg Dulcich for 9 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK) — UCLA win probability +27.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 4:41: Zach Charbonnet run for 9 yds to the UCLA 13 — UCLA win probability +12.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WASH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UCLA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 8:54UCLA 4th & 7 at UCLA 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 44.0% before the snapGo for it44.1%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.1%average punt
- Q1 3:23WASH 4th & 6 at UCLA 6, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.7% before the snapGo for it56.5%−0.131% to convertField goalTheir call56.6%91% to makePunt54.6%−2.0average punt
- Q2 11:23WASH 4th & 24 at WASH 13, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.8% before the snapGo for it49.7%−2.46% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.1%average punt
- Q2 7:04UCLA 4th & 7 at WASH 21, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.5% before the snapGo for it48.7%−0.435% to convertField goalTheir call49.1%74% to makePunt44.2%−4.9average punt
- Q2 5:52WASH 4th & 4 at WASH 21, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snapGo for it43.1%−1.247% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.3%average punt
- Q2 3:33UCLA 4th & 1 at WASH 1, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call56.9%59% to convertField goal54.3%−2.594% to makePunt48.1%−8.8average punt
- Q2 0:00UCLA 4th & 4 at WASH 36, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 61.7% before the snapGo for it62.4%48% to convertField goalTheir call60.7%−1.642% to makePunt60.8%−1.5average punt
- Q3 13:26UCLA 4th & 1 at UCLA 44, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call61.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt59.6%−2.1average punt
- Q3 11:47UCLA 4th & 9 at UCLA 49, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.3% before the snapGo for it61.2%−0.932% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.1%average punt
- Q3 6:55WASH 4th & 1 at UCLA 1, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call39.2%59% to convertField goal34.7%−4.594% to makePunt22.5%−16.7average punt
- Q3 4:33UCLA 4th & 7 at UCLA 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snapGo for it46.5%−0.637% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.1%average punt
- Q4 14:06WASH 4th & 13 at UCLA 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snapGo for it53.7%−3.821% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.5%average punt
- Q4 10:23UCLA 4th & 1 at WASH 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call48.5%70% to convertField goal38.2%−10.338% to makePunt38.8%−9.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WASH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UCLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 0:29UCLA Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.3%97% to makeGo for two46.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:33UCLA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.2%97% to makeGo for two64.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:52WASH Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.0%97% to makeGo for two39.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:55WASH Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call53.8%97% to makeGo for two53.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 8:19UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.4%97% to makeGo for two71.1%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWASHDrive 1INT8 plays · 22 yds · 3:1156% → 57%
Q1 13:26
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+4
56.1%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 4 yds to the Wash 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
56.2%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Sean McGrew for 5 yds to the Wash 35Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+6
56.2%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Cade Otton for 6 yds to the Wash 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
56.5%
Dylan Morris pass intercepted Quentin Lake return for no gain to the UCLA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 2:3644% → 44%
WASHDrive 3FG15 plays · 74 yds · 5:1856% → 58%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
56.3%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Rome Odunze for 11 yds to the Wash 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+10
56.6%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Stephan Blaylock) to the Wash 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+8
57.0%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 8 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+15
57.1%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Cameron Johnson) to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
57.7%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Cade Otton for 12 yds to the UCLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
57.7%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 3 yds to the UCLA 19Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+17
57.9%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Rome Odunze for 17 yds to the UCLA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4542% → 48%
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
58.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Logan Loya for 18 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+19
58.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Chase Cota for 19 yds to the Wash 48Similar
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
52.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kam Brown for 17 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 5PUNT8 plays · -3 yds · 3:5454% → 52%
Q2 14:52
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+7
53.8%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 7 yds to the Wash 25Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 7
OWN 30
-25
53.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 25 yards to the Wash 5 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Wash Sean McGrewSimilar
Q2 11:23
4TH & 24
OWN 13
+6
52.0%
Race Porter punt for 65 yds , Logan Loya returns for 6 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6FG9 plays · 51 yds · 4:1247% → 55%
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
52.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 7 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
51.2%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Defensive Offside (Ryan Bowman) to the Wash 38Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 7
OPP 21
-1
49.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Brittain Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the Wash 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0146% → 44%
UCLADrive 8TD6 plays · 56 yds · 2:0957% → 66%
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+22
42.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 22 yds to the Wash 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+27
42.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Chase Cota for 27 yds to the Wash 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
33.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 9TD9 plays · 69 yds · 2:2834% → 48%
Q2 2:01
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+14
33.8%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 14 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
34.1%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Richard Newton for 9 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
34.6%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Cade Otton for 8 yds to the UCLA 26Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+26
48.2%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Rome Odunze for 26 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10DOWNS12 plays · 39 yds · 0:4560% → 63%
Q2 0:28
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+14
39.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Chase Cota for 14 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
38.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 11 yds to the Wash 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+6
38.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kam Brown for 6 yds to the Wash 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 11PUNT11 plays · 24 yds · 3:0760% → 61%
WASHDrive 12TD10 plays · 75 yds · 4:4440% → 59%
UCLADrive 13PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 2:1346% → 47%
WASHDrive 14PUNT12 plays · 32 yds · 5:2057% → 55%
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
57.3%
Dylan Morris sacked by Jordan Genmark Heath for a loss of 4 yards to the Wash 28Similar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 14
OWN 28
+15
54.2%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Stephan Blaylock) to the Wash 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 9
OPP 44
-4
60.2%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Kamari Pleasant for a loss of 4 yards to the UCLA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15TD13 plays · 90 yds · 5:3447% → 84%
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
52.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 4 yds Kazmeir Allen fumbled, forced by Jackson Sirmon, recovered by UCLASimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
51.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 5 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+4
49.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 4 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
46.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for 6 yds to the Wash 41Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 4
OPP 41
-1
45.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Brittain Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the Wash 42Similar
Q4 10:33
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+4
47.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kam Brown for 4 yds to the Wash 38Similar
Q4 10:23
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+2
49.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 2 yds to the Wash 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+16
43.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Greg Dulcich for 16 yds to the Wash 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
16.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Greg Dulcich for 9 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 16INT8 plays · 27 yds · 3:2326% → 26%
Q4 7:04
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
23.6%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 12 yds to the Wash 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
26.3%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Rome Odunze for 4 yds to the Wash 46Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+5
26.9%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Kamari Pleasant for 5 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
26.4%
Dylan Morris pass intercepted Devin Kirkwood return for no gain to the UCLA 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17END OF GAME12 plays · 28 yds · 4:2686% → 94%
Q4 2:04
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+8
9.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 8 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:19
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Greg Dulcich for 9 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)
-27.3
TD · Q3 6:55
Dylan Morris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)
+19.5
TD · Q2 0:52
Dylan Morris pass complete to Rome Odunze for 26 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)
+13.6