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CAL

California 17 at Oregon 24

ORE
2021 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2021 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:02 · Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Trevon Clark
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 182Pregame prior+0.0Home team on offense+17.9Garbage-time factor+6.1Score differential+1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.2Time remaining+3.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:17: T. Dye run for 11 yds for a TD, (C. Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +6.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:37: Chase Garbers pass complete to Gavin Reinwald for 4 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK) — CAL win probability +25.6 pts (now 74%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:23: Anthony Brown pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 20 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +26.6 pts (now 69%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:50: Anthony Brown run for 11 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +24.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:00: Anthony Brown run for no gain to the Oregn 2 — ORE win probability +8.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 2 of 3CAL made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 2:29ORE 4th & 6 at CAL 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    76.6%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    76.3%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:43CAL 4th & 4 at ORE 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    25.3%−0.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    24.6%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:09CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 20, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:57CAL 4th & 8 at CAL 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:03CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:36ORE 4th & 4 at ORE 18, up 3
    Close callPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:34CAL 4th & 13 at ORE 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−2.1
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    19.8%−6.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:23ORE 4th & 9 at ORE 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:50CAL 4th & 14 at CAL 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−9.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 0:16CAL 4th & 4 at ORE 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    9.8%−2.0
    90% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−5.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:02CAL 4th & 2 at ORE 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    24.0%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    7.8%−17.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CAL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 5:23CAL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:17ORE Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:37CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:23ORE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:50ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−1.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 4:0881% → 80%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
80.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Dye for 6 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+23
80.5%
Travis Dye run for 23 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
80.5%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Dye for 6 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+8
80.4%
Travis Dye run for 8 yds to the Cal 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
80.4%
Brown, Anthony pass complete to Redd, Jaylon for 15 yards to the CALIFORNIA12, PENALTY OREGON personal foul off-setting, PENALTY CALIFORNIA Personal Foul off-setting, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGON.Similar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
80.3%
Travis Dye run for 6 yds to the Cal 21Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 4
OPP 21
-10
80.2%
OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Cal 31Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 14
OPP 31
0
79.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for no gain to the Cal 31Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 20
OPP 31
+49
80.0%
Camden Lewis 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:0720% → 24%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
79.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 10 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
79.7%
Damien Moore run for 8 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+5
79.4%
Damien Moore run for 5 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
79.3%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Damien MooreSimilar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+9
79.2%
Damien Moore run for 9 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
79.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Gavin Reinwald for 7 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 3
OPP 36
0
78.9%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Trevon ClarkSimilar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+6
78.9%
Christopher Brooks run for 6 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
78.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 10 yds to the Oregn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
78.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 6 yds to the Oregn 14Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+3
78.2%
Christopher Brooks run for 3 yds to the Oregn 11Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+2
78.3%
Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds to the Oregn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
75.9%
Jake Tonges 9 Yd pass from Chase Garbers (Dario Longhetto Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3DOWNS
9 plays · 54 yds · 2:3176% → 76%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+17
76.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Devon Williams for 17 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
76.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 7 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 3
OWN 40
0
76.9%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Travis DyeSimilar
Q1 4:06
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+24
76.5%
Travis Dye run for 24 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
77.0%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+4
76.9%
Anthony Brown run for 4 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 6
OPP 32
0
76.6%
Anthony Brown run for no gain to the Cal 32Similar
Q1 2:29
4TH & 6
OPP 32
+2
75.7%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Dye for 2 yds to the Cal 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4DOWNS
11 plays · 37 yds · 3:2725% → 27%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
75.0%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Cal 35Similar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 5
OWN 35
+3
74.6%
Damien Moore run for 3 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+10
74.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Collin Moore for 10 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
73.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for no gain to the Cal 48Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+16
73.4%
Chase Garbers run for 16 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
72.9%
Chase Garbers run for no gain to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
72.6%
Christopher Brooks run for 6 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 4
OPP 30
0
72.0%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q2 13:49
3RD & 4
OPP 30
0
72.5%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q2 13:43
4TH & 4
OPP 30
-3
73.4%
Chase Garbers sacked by Noah Sewell for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5FUMBLE
10 plays · 56 yds · 3:1174% → 73%
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-15
74.0%
OREGON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Oregn 18Similar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 25
OWN 18
+15
73.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 15 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+23
73.7%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 23 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
75.0%
Travis Dye run for 6 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+11
74.9%
Travis Dye run for 11 yds to the Cal 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
75.3%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Cal 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-10
75.2%
OREGON Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Cal 27Similar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 20
OPP 27
0
74.8%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Mycah PittmanSimilar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 20
OPP 27
+6
74.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kris Hutson for 6 yds to the Cal 21Similar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 14
OPP 21
+10
72.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kris Hutson for 10 yds Kris Hutson fumbled, recovered by Cal Trey PasterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:1128% → 29%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
72.1%
Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds to the Cal 13Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+2
71.6%
Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds to the Cal 15Similar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 6
OWN 15
-5
71.8%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Cal 10Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 11
OWN 10
+10
71.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 10 yds to the Cal 20Similar
Q2 8:09
4TH & 1
OWN 20
0
70.7%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Mycah Pittman at the Oregn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:4770% → 79%
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
70.4%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
70.1%
Anthony Brown run for 2 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+21
69.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Devon Williams for 21 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
71.5%
Travis Dye run for 5 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+19
71.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Devon Williams for 19 yds to the Cal 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
72.0%
Anthony Brown run for 9 yds to the Cal 11Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+11
78.5%
T. Dye run for 11 yds for a TD, (C. Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:5025% → 24%
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
75.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 5 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+6
74.5%
Damien Moore run for 6 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
74.1%
Damien Moore run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 39Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 13
OWN 39
+5
75.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 5 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
74.4%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q2 2:57
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
75.8%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Mycah Pittman at the Oregn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9FUMBLE
11 plays · 43 yds · 2:2875% → 76%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
75.3%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the Oregn 17Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+8
75.1%
Anthony Brown run for 8 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+2
74.5%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the Oregn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
75.2%
Anthony Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+8
74.7%
Travis Dye run for 8 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+4
75.3%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+20
75.7%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kris Hutson for 20 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-4
76.4%
Anthony Brown sacked by Ethan Saunders for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 45Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+10
75.0%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Devon Williams for 10 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 4
OPP 35
-6
75.9%
Anthony Brown sacked by Ethan Saunders for a loss of 6 yards to the Cal 41 Anthony Brown fumbled, recovered by CalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:1328% → 27%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
72.0%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
72.5%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+16
73.3%
Marcel Dancy run for 16 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 1:4726% → 25%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
74.3%
Damien Moore run for 2 yds to the Cal 9Similar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+3
74.5%
Damien Moore run for 3 yds to the Cal 12Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 5
OWN 12
-6
75.0%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Personal Foul (-6 Yards) to the Cal 6Similar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 11
OWN 6
+24
75.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 24 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
73.1%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
73.5%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Damien MooreSimilar
Q3 13:10
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
74.3%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q3 13:03
4TH & 10
OWN 30
+58
75.2%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Mycah Pittman at the OREGON 23 OREGON Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (11 Yards) to the Oregn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4974% → 72%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
74.1%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+2
73.7%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the Oregn 18Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 4
OWN 18
0
72.6%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
Q3 11:36
4TH & 4
OWN 18
+38
72.1%
Tom Snee punt for 51 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 0 yds to the CALIFORNIA 31 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Cal 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 2:3627% → 34%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+26
73.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 26 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
70.2%
Christopher Brooks run for 4 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+3
70.1%
Christopher Brooks run for 3 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+22
69.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 22 yds to the Oregn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-10
68.1%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Oregn 34Similar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 20
OPP 34
+7
68.9%
Christopher Brooks run for 7 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 13
OPP 27
0
68.5%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jake TongesSimilar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 13
OPP 27
0
70.8%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:34
4TH & 13
OPP 27
+45
66.5%
Dario Longhetto 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14PUNT
12 plays · 22 yds · 3:4068% → 65%
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
68.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Spencer Webb for 3 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+8
67.7%
Anthony Brown run for 8 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
68.4%
Anthony Brown run for 1 yd to the Oregn 38Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
68.4%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Kris HutsonSimilar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+9
66.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Dye for 9 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
70.3%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the Oregn 48Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 9
OWN 48
-5
69.8%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 43Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 14
OWN 43
0
67.5%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 14
OWN 43
+5
65.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Dye for 5 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q3 4:23
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
65.1%
Tom Snee punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 5:2338% → 74%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
62.1%
Christopher Brooks run for 7 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+31
60.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 31 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
57.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brooks for 7 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+10
54.5%
Chase Garbers run for 10 yds to the Oregn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
53.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Damien Moore for 9 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 1
OPP 16
0
53.5%
Damien Moore run for no gain to the Oregn 16Similar
Q3 0:53
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+1
54.9%
Chase Garbers run for 1 yd to the Oregn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
52.5%
Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds to the Oregn 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-5
52.4%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 18Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 13
OPP 18
+16
53.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 16 yds to the Oregn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
52.1%
Christopher Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 4Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
26.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Gavin Reinwald for 4 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 1:5938% → 69%
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
37.9%
Travis Dye run for 19 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
41.2%
Anthony Brown run for 12 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
42.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Dye for 6 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+5
42.3%
Anthony Brown run for 5 yds to the Cal 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
68.8%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 20 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 2:2542% → 40%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
57.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Damien Moore for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 24Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+12
58.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 12 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
55.0%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Cal 26Similar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+10
57.1%
Christopher Brooks run for 10 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-4
55.7%
Chase Garbers sacked by Kayvon Thibodeaux for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 32Similar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 14
OWN 32
0
59.0%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Trevon ClarkSimilar
Q4 8:50
4TH & 14
OWN 32
0
60.1%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Mycah Pittman at the Oregn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:5462% → 92%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
61.7%
Travis Dye run for 9 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+6
65.5%
Travis Dye run for 6 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
65.4%
OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Oregn 35Similar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 20
OWN 35
+39
60.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Dye for 39 yds to the Cal 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
67.5%
Byron Cardwell run for 7 yds to the Cal 19Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+12
67.4%
Byron Cardwell run for 12 yds to the Cal 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-4
67.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Dye for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 11Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
92.1%
Anthony Brown run for 11 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19DOWNS
27 plays · 73 yds · 4:4313% → 11%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
86.7%
Damien Moore run for 1 yd to the Cal 26Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+21
87.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 21 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
84.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 1 yd to the Cal 48Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
84.6%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+4
85.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brooks for 4 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q4 2:57
4TH & 5
OPP 48
+10
85.7%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
82.9%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Oregn 48Similar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 20
OPP 48
+11
85.2%
Christopher Brooks run for 11 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+10
83.2%
Christopher Brooks run for 10 yds to the Oregn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
78.3%
Damien Moore run for 3 yds to the Oregn 24Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
78.4%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+10
82.6%
Chase Garbers run for 10 yds to the Oregn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
78.6%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Holding (7 Yards) to the Oregn 7Similar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 3
OPP 7
0
78.6%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jake TongesSimilar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 3
OPP 7
-1
78.6%
Chase Garbers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 8Similar
Q4 0:22
3RD & 4
OPP 8
0
83.2%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jake TongesSimilar
Q4 0:16
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+5
88.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 5 yds to the Oregn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
83.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
84.3%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q4 0:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
84.7%
Chase Garbers run for 1 yd to the Oregn 2Similar
Q4 0:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
89.2%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Trevon ClarkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
98.1%
Anthony Brown run for no gain to the Oregn 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:23
Anthony Brown pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 20 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
+26.6
TD · Q4 13:37
Chase Garbers pass complete to Gavin Reinwald for 4 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)
-25.6
TD · Q4 4:50
Anthony Brown run for 11 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
+24.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com