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USC

USC 37 at Colorado 14

COLO
2021 · Week 5 · Oct 2, 2021 · Folsom Field
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:05 · Josh Watts punt for 51 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+51.5+25.80−25.8−51.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 128Home team on offense−40.1Pregame prior−5.8Score differential−24.2Garbage-time factor−13.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:04: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Trigg for 46 yds for a TD, (Parker Lewis KICK) — USC win probability +7.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:02: Deion Smith 1 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick) — COLO win probability +8.7 pts (now 22%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:52: Vavae Malepeai 2 Yd Run (Parker Lewis Kick) — USC win probability +7.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:18: Brendon Lewis pass complete to Chase Penry for 7 yds for a TD, (Cole Becker KICK) — COLO win probability +9.9 pts (now 16%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:08: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 15 yds for a TD, (Parker Lewis KICK) — USC win probability +4.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 5 of 7USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 13:36USC 4th & 8 at USC 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:57COLO 4th & 20 at COLO 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:57USC 4th & 3 at COLO 13, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.4%−0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    66.1%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:14COLO 4th & 15 at COLO 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:31COLO 4th & 8 at COLO 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:41USC 4th & 6 at COLO 27, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.7%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    76.4%−4.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:49COLO 4th & 5 at COLO 30, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:40USC 4th & 12 at COLO 31, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%−1.3
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.7%
    54% to make
    Punt
    79.4%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:03COLO 4th & 2 at USC 43, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    15.6%−2.3
    28% to make
    Punt
    16.4%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:04USC 4th & 9 at USC 49, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:05COLO 4th & 3 at COLO 49, down 23
    Close callPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:09USC 4th & 19 at USC 11, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−0.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:39COLO 4th & 11 at USC 45, down 23
    Close callPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%−<0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 1:59USC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:04USC Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:02COLO Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:52USC Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:18COLO Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:08USC Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2478% → 78%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
21.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Trigg for 5 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-3
21.6%
Keaontay Ingram run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
21.6%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:36
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+7
22.4%
Ben Griffiths punt for 44 yds , Dimitri Stanley returns for 7 yds to the Colo 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 2:3922% → 23%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
22.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Brady Russell for 9 yds to the Colo 35Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+2
22.4%
Jarek Broussard run for 2 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
22.4%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-1
22.3%
Jarek Broussard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 36Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
22.3%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Drake Jackson for 0 yards to the Colo 27Similar
Q1 10:57
4TH & 20
OWN 27
+9
23.4%
Josh Watts punt for 55 yds , Gary Bryant Jr. returns for 9 yds to the USC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3FG
15 plays · 70 yds · 5:0076% → 75%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
23.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 6 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 4
OWN 23
0
23.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+4
23.7%
Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds to the USC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
23.6%
Keaontay Ingram run for 7 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 3
OWN 34
0
23.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+31
23.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 31 yds to the Colo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
23.2%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+7
23.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 7 yds to the Colo 13Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 3
OPP 13
0
23.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+15
23.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 15 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-15
23.3%
USC Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Michael Trigg) to the USC 34Similar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
23.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 3 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+10
23.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tahj Washington for 10 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
23.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q1 5:57
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+30
25.3%
Parker Lewis 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4Uncategorized
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2325% → 25%
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
25.2%
Jarek Broussard run for 3 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
25.2%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Jacob Lichtenstein for 0 yards to the Colo 26Similar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
24.8%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:34
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
25.2%
WATTS, Josh punt 56 yards to the USC18, BRYANT JR., Gary return 13 yards to the USC31, out of bounds. PENALTY USC Holding on NIXON, K.D. enforced 0 yards COL Unsportsmanlike Conduct on PITTMAN, Toren enforced 0 yards after the change of possession from the end of the play at the USC31 to the USC31 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 2:3574% → 78%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+29
25.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 29 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+16
25.2%
Darwin Barlow run for 16 yds to the Colo 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-10
25.1%
QB Keeper SLOVIS, Kedon rush to the right for a gain of 1 yard to the COL18, End of Play. PENALTY USC Holding on FORD, Courtland enforced 10 yards from the COL19 to the COL29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 20
OPP 29
+28
25.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 28 yds to the Colo 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
25.1%
Darwin Barlow run for no gain to the Colo 1Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
22.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:4523% → 22%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
22.7%
Jarek Broussard run for 3 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+18
22.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Daniel Arias for 18 yds to the Colo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
23.2%
Jarek Broussard run for 1 yd to the Colo 47Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 47
-10
23.5%
LEWIS, Brendon scrambles to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the COL49 (JOHNSON, Greg). PENALTY COL Holding on FILLIP, Frank enforced 10 yards from the COL47 to the COL37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 37
0
22.8%
Brendon Lewis run for no gain to the Colo 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 37
+9
22.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Alex Fontenot for 9 yds to the Colo 46Similar
Q2 13:26
4TH & 10
OWN 46
-5
22.3%
WATTS, Josh punt 41 yards to the USC13, fair catch by BRYANT JR., Gary. PENALTY Before the snap, COL Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the COL46 to the COL41. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:14
4TH & 15
OWN 41
0
22.1%
Josh Watts punt for 44 yds , Gary Bryant Jr. returns for no gain to the USC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 2:1076% → 85%
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
23.8%
Keaontay Ingram run for 10 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
23.7%
Keaontay Ingram run for 13 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
23.1%
Keaontay Ingram run for 11 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
23.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 5 yds to the Colo 46Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+46
15.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Trigg for 46 yds for a TD, (Parker Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3318% → 17%
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
17.5%
Alex Fontenot run for a loss of 6 yards to the Colo 19Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
17.4%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+8
17.3%
Alex Fontenot run for 8 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q2 9:31
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+7
17.1%
Josh Watts punt for 52 yds , K.D. Nixon returns for 7 yds to the USC 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:5085% → 89%
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
15.2%
SLOVIS, Kedon pass to the left incomplete intended for WASHINGTON, Tahj thrown to the COL44. PENALTY COL Pass Interference on GONZALEZ, Christian enforced 15 yards to the USC43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+26
14.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tahj Washington for 26 yds to the Colo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
14.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 9 yds to the Colo 22Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 1
OPP 22
-15
14.6%
SLOVIS, Kedon pass to the left complete for 20 yards to TRIGG, Michael caught at the COL5 and advanced to the COL2 (LEWIS, Isaiah). PENALTY USC Pass Interference on TRIGG, Michael enforced 15 yards to the COL37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 16
OPP 37
+8
14.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 8 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+7
14.9%
Vavae Malepeai run for 7 yds to the Colo 22Similar
Q2 7:22
4TH & 1
OPP 22
-5
15.4%
USC Penalty, False Start (Courtland Ford) to the Colo 27Similar
Q2 6:41
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+44
11.5%
Parker Lewis 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5214% → 13%
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
14.0%
Alex Fontenot run for 2 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
13.9%
Alex Fontenot run for 2 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+1
13.9%
Brendon Lewis run for 1 yd to the Colo 30Similar
Q2 4:49
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+6
12.9%
Josh Watts punt for 48 yds , Gary Bryant Jr. returns for 6 yds to the USC 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11FUMBLE
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:4890% → 90%
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
10.4%
Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+17
10.2%
Keaontay Ingram run for 17 yds to the USC 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12TD
7 plays · 48 yds · 2:5914% → 22%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
14.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 7 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+19
14.2%
Jarek Broussard run for 19 yds to the USC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
14.4%
Jarek Broussard run for 3 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+13
13.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Brady Russell for 13 yds to the USC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
13.2%
Alex Fontenot run for 5 yds to the USC 1Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
22.0%
Deion Smith 1 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 9 yds · 1:0282% → 83%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.6%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
17.7%
Darwin Barlow run for 8 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
17.0%
Darwin Barlow run for 1 yd to the USC 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14FUMBLE
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:2720% → 20%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
19.8%
Jarek Broussard run for 9 yds to the Colo 25Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+1
20.4%
Jarek Broussard run for 1 yd to the Colo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
20.0%
USC Penalty, Targeting on GOFORTH, Ralen enforced (Ralen Goforth) to the Colo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
20.7%
Jarek Broussard run for 3 yds to the Colo 47Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+1
21.1%
Jarek Broussard run for 1 yd to the Colo 48Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
19.9%
Brendon Lewis sacked for 0 yards to the Colo 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15FG
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:4885% → 87%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
15.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 4 yds to the Colo 25Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 6
OPP 25
-6
15.2%
Keaontay Ingram run for a loss of 6 yards to the Colo 31Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 12
OPP 31
0
15.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:40
4TH & 12
OPP 31
+49
12.8%
Parker Lewis 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16DOWNS
6 plays · 33 yds · 2:3714% → 15%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
14.4%
Jarek Broussard run for 1 yd to the Colo 26Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
14.3%
LEWIS, Brendon scrambles to the right for a gain of 8 yards to the COL34, End of Play. PENALTY USC Personal Foul on SCOTT, Raymond enforced 15 yards from the end of the play at the COL34 to the COL49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
15.9%
Jarek Broussard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 48Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 11
OWN 48
0
15.6%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+9
15.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 9 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q3 8:03
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+1
15.3%
Alex Fontenot run for 1 yd to the USC 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17TD
4 plays · 58 yds · 1:1189% → 97%
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
11.2%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+53
11.3%
Keaontay Ingram run for 53 yds to the Colo 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
10.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the Colo 2Similar
Q3 6:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
3.5%
Vavae Malepeai 2 Yd Run (Parker Lewis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:345% → 16%
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
4.7%
Daniel Arias run for 1 yd to the Colo 26Similar
Q3 6:52
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+65
4.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Brady Russell for 65 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
5.6%
Jarek Broussard run for 2 yds to the USC 7Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
15.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Chase Penry for 7 yds for a TD, (Cole Becker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:1489% → 90%
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
10.9%
Darwin Barlow run for 9 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+14
10.6%
Darwin Barlow run for 14 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
10.0%
Darwin Barlow run for 3 yds to the Colo 49Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 7
OPP 49
-5
9.9%
USC Penalty, False Start (Brett Neilon) to the USC 46Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+3
9.2%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
9.2%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:04
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
9.8%
Ben Griffiths punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Dimitri Stanley at the Colo 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20INT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0912% → 11%
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
11.5%
Jarek Broussard run for 6 yds to the Colo 16Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+16
11.5%
Jarek Broussard run for 16 yds to the Colo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
11.9%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Drake Jackson for 0 yards to the Colo 28Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 14
OWN 28
-9
11.4%
FONTENOT, Alex rush to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the COL33 (JOHNSON, Greg). PENALTY COL Holding on LYNCH, Matt enforced 9 yards from the COL28 to the COL19 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 23
OWN 19
0
11.1%
Brendon Lewis pass intercepted Joshua Jackson Jr. return for no gain to the Colo 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21TD
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:4793% → 98%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
6.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tahj Washington for 10 yds to the Colo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+17
6.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 17 yds to the Colo 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
6.2%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
6.1%
INGRAM, Keaontay rush up the middle for a gain of 8 yards to the COL0, TOUCHDOWN USC, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY USC Holding on VORHEES, Andrew enforced 10 yards from the COL8 to the COL18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
+3
6.5%
Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the Colo 15Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
2.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 15 yds for a TD, (Parker Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 3:033% → 2%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.5%
Deion Smith run for no gain to the Colo 25Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
2.3%
Deion Smith run for no gain to the Colo 25Similar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+17
2.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Brenden Rice for 17 yds to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
2.5%
Deion Smith run for 5 yds to the Colo 47Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+2
2.5%
Deion Smith run for 2 yds to the Colo 49Similar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
2.6%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:05
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
2.2%
Josh Watts punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 2:5699% → 99%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
1.4%
Darwin Barlow run for 1 yd to the USC 21Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
1.4%
Darwin Barlow run for no gain to the USC 21Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-10
1.5%
SLOVIS, Kedon pass to the left complete for 11 yards to MANJACK IV, Joseph caught at the USC32 and advanced to the USC32 (GONZALEZ, Christian). PENALTY USC Holding on FORD, Courtland enforced 10 yards from the USC21 to the USC11 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 19
OWN 11
-5
1.5%
USC Penalty, False Start (Brett Neilon) to the USC 6Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 24
OWN 6
+5
1.5%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the USC 11Similar
Q4 8:09
4TH & 19
OWN 11
0
1.2%
Ben Griffiths punt for 44 yds, downed at the Colo 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:302% → 1%
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
1.8%
Deion Smith run for 3 yds to the Colo 48Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+8
1.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Deion Smith for 8 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
1.9%
Deion Smith run for 1 yd to the USC 43Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
1.9%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:09
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
1.9%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Jacob Lichtenstein for 0 yards to the USC 45Similar
Q4 5:39
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
1.1%
Josh Watts punt for 41 yds, downed at the USC 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 25END OF GAME
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
0.8%
Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the USC 7Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+11
0.8%
Keaontay Ingram run for 11 yds to the USC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
0.7%
Keaontay Ingram run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 16Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 12
OWN 16
+2
0.8%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds to the USC 18Similar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+10
0.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Malcolm Epps for 10 yds to the USC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
0.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for no gain to the USC 28Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
0.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+9
0.7%
Darwin Barlow run for 9 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:18
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Chase Penry for 7 yds for a TD, (Cole Becker KICK)
+9.9
TD · Q2 1:02
Deion Smith 1 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick)
+8.7
TD · Q2 11:04
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Trigg for 46 yds for a TD, (Parker Lewis KICK)
-7.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com