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WASH

Washington 24 at Oregon State 27

ORST
2021 · Week 5 · Oct 2, 2021 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadWASH aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreWASH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:18 · Dylan Morris run for no gain to the Wash 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorBlowout margin
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 137Home team on offense−5.7Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−4.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.9Pregame prior+0.1Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 5:28: Everett Hayes 29 yd FG GOOD — ORST win probability +8.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:19: run for 39 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +26.5 pts (now 54%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:02: run for 6 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +38.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:35: B.J. Baylor run for 27 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +30.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Everett Hayes 24 yd FG GOOD — ORST win probability +29.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7WASH made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 8:48ORST 4th & 11 at ORST 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:19WASH 4th & 1 at WASH 16, up 7
    Close callPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:29ORST 4th & 8 at WASH 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    48.8%−4.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:59WASH 4th & 6 at WASH 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:35WASH 4th & 13 at WASH 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−1.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:10ORST 4th & 4 at ORST 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00WASH 4th & 2 at ORST 2, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.9%−3.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−11.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:48ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 40, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:21WASH 4th & 5 at WASH 11, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:28ORST 4th & 6 at WASH 11, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    59.0%−9.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:28WASH 4th & 1 at WASH 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.8%−2.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:54WASH 4th & 9 at ORST 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    21.9%−2.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:11ORST 4th & 7 at ORST 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−2.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:18WASH 4th & 1 at WASH 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    46.7%−8.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:00ORST 4th & 6 at WASH 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−4.7
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    31.0%−32.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3WASH made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:02WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:37ORST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:25ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:19WASH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.5%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:02WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−0.5
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:35ORST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.7%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WASHDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:5848% → 49%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.0%
Sean McGrew run for no gain to the Wash 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
52.0%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Sean McGrew for 3 yds to the Wash 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+14
52.0%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 14 yds to the Wash 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
52.0%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Rome Odunze for 9 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+5
52.0%
Sean McGrew run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
51.0%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 44 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 3:1451% → 50%
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.3%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
51.3%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Luke Musgrave for 11 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
51.4%
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+12
51.4%
B.J. Baylor run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
50
+3
51.7%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the Wash 47Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 7
OPP 47
-4
51.7%
Tyjon Lindsey run for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q1 12:02
3RD & 11
OWN 49
0
51.4%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:48
4TH & 11
OWN 49
0
50.2%
Luke Loecher punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2950% → 50%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
50.3%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Taj Davis for 5 yds to the Wash 12Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+4
50.2%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Rome Odunze for 4 yds to the Wash 16Similar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 1
OWN 16
0
50.3%
Dylan Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:19
4TH & 1
OWN 16
0
50.2%
Race Porter punt for 48 yds , Trevon Bradford returns for no gain to the OrgSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4MISSED FG
13 plays · 43 yds · 6:5050% → 48%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
50.2%
B.J. Baylor run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+7
50.7%
B.J. Baylor run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
50
+5
50.9%
B.J. Baylor run for 5 yds to the Wash 45Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+4
51.0%
B.J. Baylor run for 4 yds to the Wash 41Similar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+5
50.9%
run for 5 yds to the Wash 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
50.9%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 4 yds to the Wash 32Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+1
51.3%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 1 yd to the Wash 31Similar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+8
50.9%
Chance Nolan run for 8 yds to the Wash 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
51.3%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 4 yds to the Wash 19Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+1
51.3%
B.J. Baylor run for 1 yd to the Wash 18Similar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 5
OPP 18
0
50.9%
Chance Nolan sacked by Ryan Bowman for 0 yards to the Wash 21Similar
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
47.3%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct ( Yards) to the Wash 11Similar
Q1 0:29
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+39
48.3%
Everett Hayes 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 5FUMBLE
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0553% → 53%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 11
+4
47.3%
Sean McGrew run for 4 yds to the Wash 15Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 15
-4
46.9%
Cameron Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wash 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6TD
3 plays · 11 yds · 1:1850% → 56%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
49.5%
Tre'Shaun Harrison run for 5 yds to the Wash 6Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+3
49.5%
B.J. Baylor run for 3 yds to the Wash 3Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
55.6%
run for 3 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3347% → 46%
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
52.9%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 2 yds to the Wash 18Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+2
53.0%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 2 yds to the Wash 20Similar
Q2 13:32
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
53.5%
Dylan Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:59
4TH & 6
OWN 20
+24
54.3%
Race Porter punt for 51 yds , Trevon Bradford returns for 24 yds to the Wash 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8TD
7 plays · 42 yds · 3:3456% → 65%
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
56.3%
Chance Nolan run for 4 yds to the Wash 38Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+8
56.3%
B.J. Baylor run for 8 yds to the Wash 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
56.7%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 5 yds to the Wash 25Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+9
56.7%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 9 yds to the Wash 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
56.7%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 11 yds to the Wash 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
56.7%
B.J. Baylor run for no gain to the Wash 5Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
64.5%
B.J. Baylor run for 5 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 9INT
6 plays · 33 yds · 2:3438% → 39%
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
61.9%
Sean McGrew run for 4 yds to the Wash 29Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
61.3%
Sean McGrew run for 7 yds to the Wash 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
61.0%
Dylan Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
61.4%
Sean McGrew run for 6 yds to the Wash 42Similar
Q2 8:25
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+16
60.3%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 16 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
60.9%
Dylan Morris pass intercepted return for no gain to the OrgSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1266% → 66%
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
66.2%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
65.6%
Chance Nolan pass intercepted return for no gain to the OrgSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:0439% → 35%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
60.9%
Dylan Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-3
61.8%
Sean McGrew run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wash 48Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 13
OWN 48
0
63.8%
Dylan Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:35
4TH & 13
OWN 48
0
65.2%
Race Porter punt for 40 yds, downed at the OrgSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2565% → 64%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
64.7%
B.J. Baylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 11
OWN 11
+7
64.4%
B.J. Baylor run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 4
OWN 18
0
63.7%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:10
4TH & 4
OWN 18
0
63.6%
Luke Loecher punt for 52 yds , Giles Jackson returns for no gain to the Wash 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 13FG
15 plays · 68 yds · 3:1036% → 39%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
64.1%
Sean McGrew run for 4 yds to the Wash 34Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+9
63.6%
Kamari Pleasant run for 9 yds to the Wash 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
63.2%
Kamari Pleasant run for 5 yds to the Wash 48Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+9
62.3%
Kamari Pleasant run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
63.4%
Kamari Pleasant run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
61.8%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Devin Culp for 1 yd to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+4
61.9%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Sean McGrew for 4 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+17
62.9%
Kamari Pleasant run for 17 yds to the OrgSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
62.9%
Kamari Pleasant run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 6Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
62.6%
Sean McGrew run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
63.9%
Dylan Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
61.1%
Peyton Henry 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:1261% → 60%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
60.9%
Chance Nolan run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
62.2%
B.J. Baylor run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
61.0%
run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
61.8%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-5
61.3%
OREGON ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+7
60.6%
Chance Nolan run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+2
60.7%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for 2 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q3 11:48
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
60.2%
Luke Loecher punt for 54 yds, downed at the Wash 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2738% → 34%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
61.8%
Sean McGrew run for 3 yds to the Wash 9Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 7
OWN 9
0
62.1%
Dylan Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 7
OWN 9
+2
63.3%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 2 yds to the Wash 11Similar
Q3 10:21
4TH & 5
OWN 11
0
65.8%
Race Porter punt for 28 yds, downed at the Wash 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16FG
9 plays · 28 yds · 4:5368% → 75%
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
67.8%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 4 yds to the Wash 35Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+8
68.6%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 8 yds to the Wash 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
68.6%
Deshaun Fenwick run for no gain to the Wash 27Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+3
68.6%
B.J. Baylor run for 3 yds to the Wash 24Similar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+9
67.4%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 9 yds to the Wash 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
68.6%
Chance Nolan run for 5 yds to the Wash 10Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 5
OPP 10
-4
68.6%
Deshaun Fenwick run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wash 14Similar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+3
67.3%
Chance Nolan run for 3 yds to the Wash 11Similar
Q3 5:28
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+29
75.4%
Everett Hayes 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 17PUNT
13 plays · 26 yds · 5:3430% → 19%
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
70.3%
Dylan Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+7
70.9%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Rome Odunze for 7 yds to the Wash 37Similar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+2
69.7%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Kamari Pleasant for 2 yds to the Wash 39Similar
Q3 5:28
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+5
70.7%
run for 5 yds to the Wash 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
68.5%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Terrell Bynum for a loss of 1 yard to the Wash 43Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+10
69.5%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Kamari Pleasant for 10 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+2
67.2%
Dylan Morris run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
67.2%
Dylan Morris sacked by Omar Speights and Cody Anderson for 0 yards to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+2
69.6%
Dylan Morris run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 47
+3
74.5%
Kamari Pleasant run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
75.4%
Race Porter punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Trevon Bradford at the OrgSt 8Similar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
81.4%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (Luke Musgrave) to the OrgSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4380% → 79%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 14
OWN 4
+7
79.9%
B.J. Baylor run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 11
0
80.3%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 7
OWN 11
0
79.3%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:11
4TH & 7
OWN 11
0
78.8%
Luke Loecher punt for 63 yds, downed at the Wash 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 19TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 3:5225% → 54%
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
75.0%
Dylan Morris sacked by Rejzohn Wright for 0 yards to the Wash 19Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 17
OWN 19
0
75.9%
Dylan Morris sacked by Keonte Schad and Avery Roberts for 0 yards to the Wash 18Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 18
OWN 18
+18
77.1%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Kamari Pleasant for 18 yds to the Wash 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
73.7%
Kamari Pleasant run for 4 yds to the Wash 40Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+4
72.2%
Kamari Pleasant run for 4 yds to the Wash 44Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+17
72.2%
run for 17 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
45.7%
run for 39 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20FUMBLE
1 play · -6 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.4%
Chance Nolan sacked for 0 yards to the OrgSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 21TD
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q4 10:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
17.7%
run for 6 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 3:2726% → 64%
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
25.7%
B.J. Baylor run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+19
26.3%
Anthony Gould run for 19 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
30.0%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Deshaun Fenwick for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+22
26.7%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Anthony Gould for 22 yds to the Wash 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
33.4%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 8 yds to the Wash 27Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+27
64.1%
B.J. Baylor run for 27 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 3:1750% → 53%
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
50.2%
Kamari Pleasant run for 7 yds to the Wash 32Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
46.8%
Kamari Pleasant run for 5 yds to the Wash 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
47.9%
Kamari Pleasant run for 6 yds to the Wash 43Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+2
45.2%
Sean McGrew run for 2 yds to the Wash 45Similar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+1
45.6%
run for 1 yd to the Wash 46Similar
Q4 3:18
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
46.6%
Dylan Morris run for no gain to the Wash 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 24FG
12 plays · 40 yds · 3:1864% → 94%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
63.5%
B.J. Baylor run for 6 yds to the Wash 40Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+3
63.5%
B.J. Baylor run for 3 yds to the Wash 37Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+3
62.4%
Tre'Shaun Harrison run for 3 yds to the Wash 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
65.9%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 14 yds to the Wash 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
66.0%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 12 yds to the Wash 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+5
64.5%
Chance Nolan run for 5 yds to the Wash 6Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
94.3%
Everett Hayes 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:02
run for 6 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK)
-38.7
TD · Q4 6:35
B.J. Baylor run for 27 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)
+30.7
FG · Q4 0:00
Everett Hayes 24 yd FG GOOD
+29.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com