Try the model
COLO

Colorado 13 at Arizona State 35

ASU
2021 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2021 · Mountain America Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreCOLO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:59 · Josh Watts punt for 55 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 27Pregame prior+30.6Home team on offense+1.9Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 12:37: Cole Becker 46 yd FG MISSED — COLO win probability +2.0 pts (now 19%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. FG · Q2 0:13: Cole Becker 51 yd FG GOOD — ASU win probability +9.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:01: Alex Fontenot run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Becker KICK) — COLO win probability +10.1 pts (now 26%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 7:53: Elijhah Badger run for 17 yds for a TD, (Cristian Zendejas KICK) — ASU win probability +7.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:16: Ricky Pearsall pass complete to Rachaad White for 30 yds for a TD, (Cristian Zendejas KICK) — ASU win probability +6.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 2 of 5COLO made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
  1. Q1 12:53ASU 4th & 5 at ASU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:18COLO 4th & 17 at COLO 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:59COLO 4th & 14 at COLO 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:33ASU 4th & 10 at ASU 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:37COLO 4th & 4 at ASU 28, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.0%−0.2
    60% to make
    Punt
    16.9%−2.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:42COLO 4th & 10 at COLO 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:06ASU 4th & 3 at ASU 48, up 4
    Close callPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:06ASU 4th & 3 at ASU 48, up 4
    Close callPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:56COLO 4th & 4 at ASU 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    24.9%−0.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    24.5%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:13COLO 4th & 8 at ASU 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.4%
    49% to make
    Punt
    23.9%−1.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:54COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 41, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:54COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 41, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:18ASU 4th & 7 at COLO 44, up 11
    Close callPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    87.6%−0.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:44COLO 4th & 7 at COLO 14, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:44COLO 4th & 7 at COLO 14, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:23COLO 4th & 11 at COLO 24, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:56COLO 4th & 5 at ASU 15, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4COLO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:45ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:01COLO Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:53ASU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:16ASU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:30ASU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ASUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 33 yds · 2:0186% → 85%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+28
85.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 28 yds to the ArzSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
85.5%
Rachaad White run for no gain to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
85.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 5 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
85.5%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to LV Bunkley-SheltonSimilar
Q1 12:53
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
84.9%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:3515% → 15%
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
84.9%
Jarek Broussard run for no gain to the Colo 20Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
84.9%
Jarek Broussard run for 2 yds to the Colo 22Similar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
84.9%
COLORADO Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 11:18
4TH & 17
OWN 13
+17
84.6%
Josh Watts punt for 49 yds , D.J. Taylor returns for 17 yds to the Colo 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 45 yds · 3:3385% → 85%
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
84.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 15
50
+8
84.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Rachaad White for 8 yds to the Colo 42Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+15
84.6%
Daniels,Jayden sacked for loss of 12 yards to the ASU46 (Lang,Terrance) PENALTY COL Face Mask (Lang,Terrance) 15 yards from COL42 to COL27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
84.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Rachaad White for 12 yds to the Colo 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
84.7%
Rachaad White run for 9 yds to the Colo 6Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+1
84.7%
Daniyel Ngata run for 1 yd to the Colo 7Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+7
85.1%
Jayden Daniels run for 7 yds for a TD, (Cristian Zendejas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 8 yds · 2:4015% → 15%
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
84.8%
PENALTY COL Delay Of Game 5 yards from COL16 to COL11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:39
1ST & 15
OWN 11
0
84.8%
Jarek Broussard run for no gain to the Colo 11Similar
Q1 7:39
2ND & 15
OWN 11
+7
84.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jarek Broussard for 7 yds to the Colo 18Similar
Q1 7:39
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+10
85.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 10 yds to the Colo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
84.7%
Jarek Broussard run for 1 yd to the Colo 29Similar
Q1 7:39
2ND & 9
OWN 29
-5
84.7%
PENALTY COL False Start (Kutsch,Kary) 5 yards from COL29 to COL24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:39
2ND & 14
OWN 24
0
84.8%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Brady RussellSimilar
Q1 7:39
3RD & 14
OWN 24
0
85.0%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Dimitri StanleySimilar
Q1 4:59
4TH & 14
OWN 24
0
84.9%
Josh Watts punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:2685% → 84%
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
84.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 11 yds to the ArzSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
84.7%
Daniels,Jayden rush for 20 yards gain to the COL48 (Landman,Nate) PENALTY ASU Holding (Hattis,Henry) 10 yards from ASU32 to ASU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 20
OWN 22
+15
84.6%
COLORADO Penalty, Personal Foul (Jayden Simon) to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
85.1%
Jayden Daniels run for no gain to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
85.0%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
84.6%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q1 2:33
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
83.9%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6FG
11 plays · 64 yds · 4:5616% → 19%
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
84.1%
Jarek Broussard run for 3 yds to the Colo 11Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+9
84.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 9 yds to the Colo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
84.0%
COLORADO Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+11
84.1%
Alex Fontenot run for 11 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q1 2:33
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
84.0%
Alex Fontenot run for 3 yds to the Colo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
83.4%
Alex Fontenot run for 1 yd to the Colo 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+33
83.6%
Brendon Lewis run for 33 yds to the ArzSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
82.4%
Brendon Lewis run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 25
0
82.3%
Alex Fontenot run for no gain to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+3
82.7%
Brendon Lewis run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q2 12:37
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+46
80.7%
Cole Becker 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 3:0981% → 82%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
81.2%
Jayden Daniels run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+3
81.8%
Rachaad White run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+26
81.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Curtis Hodges for 26 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
82.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Curtis Hodges for 12 yds to the Colo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
82.4%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+2
82.4%
Rachaad White run for 2 yds to the Colo 21Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+10
81.9%
Daniels,Jayden pass incomplete to Hodges,Curtis PENALTY COL Roughing The Passer (Lang,Terrance) 10 yards from COL21 to COL11, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
81.8%
Rachaad White run for 11 yds for a TD, (Cristian Zendejas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:3820% → 20%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
79.7%
Jarek Broussard run for 2 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 12
OWN 33
0
80.2%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Montana Lemonious-CraigSimilar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+15
80.6%
Lewis,Brendon pass incomplete to Arias,Daniel PENALTY ASU Targeting (Green,B.J.) 15 yards from COL33 to COL48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
78.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Brenden Rice for 4 yds to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
78.6%
Brendon Lewis run for no gain to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 6
OPP 48
-4
78.7%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Joe Moore for a loss of 4 yards to the Colo 48Similar
Q2 6:42
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
80.0%
Josh Watts punt for 47 yds, fair catch by LV Bunkley-Shelton at the ArzSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 43 yds · 3:3680% → 79%
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
79.9%
Rachaad White run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 4Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 11
OWN 4
0
79.8%
Rachaad White run for no gain to the ArzSt 4Similar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 11
OWN 4
+37
79.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 37 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
81.0%
Daniyel Ngata run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+4
81.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 4 yds to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 3
OWN 48
0
80.8%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Rachaad WhiteSimilar
Q2 3:06
4TH & 3
OWN 48
+12
79.4%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 44 yds , Dimitri Stanley returns for 12 yds to the Colo 20Similar
Q2 3:06
4TH & 3
OWN 48
+12
79.4%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 44 yds , Dimitri Stanley returns for 12 yds to the Colo 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10FG
16 plays · 58 yds · 2:5321% → 13%
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+15
78.9%
PENALTY ASU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Hill,Tommi) 15 yards from COL09 to COL24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
78.6%
Jarek Broussard run for 1 yd to the Colo 23Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+15
78.7%
Lewis,Brendon pass incomplete to Arias,Daniel PENALTY ASU Pass Interference (Jones,Jack) 15 yards from COL23 to COL38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
77.6%
Alex Fontenot run for 15 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
76.4%
Alex Fontenot run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+2
77.2%
Alex Fontenot run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 4
OPP 41
0
77.4%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 4
OPP 41
+6
78.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 6 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
75.4%
Alex Fontenot run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
76.9%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Dimitri StanleySimilar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
78.3%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Ty RobinsonSimilar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+51
87.3%
Cole Becker 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.7%
run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5914% → 26%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
86.5%
Jarek Broussard run for 12 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
86.1%
Jarek Broussard run for 8 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+26
85.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Ty Robinson for 26 yds to the ArzSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
84.4%
Alex Fontenot run for 13 yds to the ArzSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
84.3%
Alex Fontenot run for 14 yds to the ArzSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
84.3%
Alex Fontenot run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 1Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
84.3%
Alex Fontenot run for no gain to the ArzSt 1Similar
Q3 11:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.3%
Alex Fontenot run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Becker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 3:0279% → 89%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
79.3%
Rachaad White run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+14
79.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 14 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
80.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 13 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
81.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 15 yds to the Colo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
81.8%
Rachaad White run for 7 yds to the Colo 17Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+17
89.0%
Elijhah Badger run for 17 yds for a TD, (Cristian Zendejas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 1:5913% → 13%
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.8%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Chase PenrySimilar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
86.9%
Jarek Broussard run for 8 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
86.7%
Jarek Broussard run for 4 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
86.3%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Montana Lemonious-CraigSimilar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
86.4%
Ashaad Clayton run for 4 yds to the Colo 41Similar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
86.3%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Montana Lemonious-CraigSimilar
Q3 5:54
4TH & 6
OWN 41
+28
87.3%
Josh Watts punt for 39 yds , D.J. Taylor returns for 28 yds to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q3 5:54
4TH & 6
OWN 41
+28
87.3%
Josh Watts punt for 39 yds , D.J. Taylor returns for 28 yds to the ArzSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 46 yds · 2:3688% → 89%
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+24
88.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 24 yds to the ArzSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
88.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Case Hatch for 9 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+10
89.0%
Jayden Daniels run for 10 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
89.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 3 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
89.1%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
88.6%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Ricky PearsallSimilar
Q3 3:18
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
88.7%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colo 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:3411% → 10%
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
88.8%
Brendon Lewis run for 8 yds to the Colo 19Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 2
OWN 19
-10
88.3%
Broussard,Jarek rush for 7 yards gain to the COL26 (Pierce,Deandre) PENALTY COL Holding (Pursell,Colby) 10 yards from COL19 to COL09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 12
OWN 9
+5
89.2%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Brenden Rice for 5 yds to the Colo 14Similar
Q3 3:18
3RD & 7
OWN 14
0
89.6%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Jarek BroussardSimilar
Q3 1:44
4TH & 7
OWN 14
+30
90.1%
Josh Watts punt for 45 yds , D.J. Taylor returns for 30 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q3 1:44
4TH & 7
OWN 14
+30
90.1%
Josh Watts punt for 45 yds , D.J. Taylor returns for 30 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:2890% → 97%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
90.3%
Rachaad White run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+7
90.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Rachaad White for 7 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+24
90.6%
Jayden Daniels run for 24 yds to the Colo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
91.3%
Daniyel Ngata run for no gain to the Colo 30Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+30
97.3%
Ricky Pearsall pass complete to Rachaad White for 30 yds for a TD, (Cristian Zendejas KICK)Similar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
97.2%
PENALTY COL Chop Block (Perry,Mark) 15 yards from ASU35 to ASU50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:534% → 3%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.1%
Brendon Lewis run for 1 yd to the Colo 26Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
96.1%
Jarek Broussard run for no gain to the Colo 26Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-2
96.2%
Brendon Lewis sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 24Similar
Q4 12:23
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+17
96.8%
Josh Watts punt for 52 yds , D.J. Taylor returns for 17 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19TD
7 plays · 59 yds · 3:5398% → 100%
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
97.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Rachaad White for 13 yds to the Colo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
97.7%
Daniyel Ngata run for 11 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
97.7%
Daniyel Ngata run for 5 yds to the Colo 30Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+11
97.7%
Daniyel Ngata run for 11 yds to the Colo 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
97.7%
Daniyel Ngata run for 4 yds to the Colo 15Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
97.7%
Rachaad White run for no gain to the Colo 15Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+15
99.7%
Jayden Daniels run for 15 yds for a TD, (Cristian Zendejas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 4:270% → 1%
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
99.6%
Lewis,Brendon pass incomplete to Arias,Daniel PENALTY ASU Pass Interference (Woods,Ed) 15 yards from COL24 to COL39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
99.6%
Ashaad Clayton run for 14 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
99.6%
Ashaad Clayton run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+2
99.6%
Ashaad Clayton run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q4 8:23
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+3
99.6%
Ashaad Clayton run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
99.5%
Brenden Rice run for 15 yds to the ArzSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
99.5%
Brendon Lewis run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+2
99.5%
Ashaad Clayton run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 12Similar
Q4 8:23
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+3
99.6%
Ashaad Clayton run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 15Similar
Q4 3:56
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+33
99.3%
Cole Becker 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21END OF GAME
8 plays · 13 yds · 3:53100% → 100%
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
99.5%
George Hart III run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+6
99.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 6 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+7
99.7%
Trenton Bourguet run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
99.7%
George Hart III run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+2
99.7%
George Hart III run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+5
99.8%
Trenton Bourguet run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:01
Alex Fontenot run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Becker KICK)
-10.1
FG · Q2 0:13
Cole Becker 51 yd FG GOOD
+9.5
TD · Q3 7:53
Elijhah Badger run for 17 yds for a TD, (Cristian Zendejas KICK)
+7.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com