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FRES

Fresno State 40 at UCLA 37

UCLA
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:39 · Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for no gain to the UCLA 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 108Pregame prior+8.6Home team on offense−11.0Garbage-time factor−3.8Score differential−4.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 8:10: Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 42 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK) — UCLA win probability +32.9 pts (now 59%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q4 7:27: Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds for a TD, (D. Thompson-Robinson Run For Two-point Conversion) — UCLA win probability +21.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 2:55: Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 19 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK) — FRES win probability +45.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:54: Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 15 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK) — UCLA win probability +45.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:14: Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 13 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK) — FRES win probability +62.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 12:33FRES 4th & 11 at FRES 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:15UCLA 4th & 14 at UCLA 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:00FRES 4th & 4 at UCLA 42, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    25.7%−0.6
    30% to make
    Punt
    25.9%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:43UCLA 4th & 4 at FRES 20, down 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.6%−0.3
    75% to make
    Punt
    61.8%−5.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:57UCLA 4th & 6 at UCLA 13, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−0.8
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:08FRES 4th & 4 at UCLA 4, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.3%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    46.1%−4.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:28FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 42, up 6
    Close callPunted · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:28UCLA 4th & 3 at UCLA 15, down 6
    Close callPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:33FRES 4th & 10 at UCLA 22, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−1.9
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    43.0%−9.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:39UCLA 4th & 1 at UCLA 49, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    37.8%−4.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:56FRES 4th & 1 at UCLA 40, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    58.8%−5.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    59.3%−5.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:06FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 36, up 9
    Close callPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:12UCLA 4th & 5 at UCLA 39, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 5:54FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    26.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    26.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:59UCLA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:49FRES Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:37FRES Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:29UCLA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:10UCLA Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.0%−1.5
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:27UCLA Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    74.7%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    75.2%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:55FRES Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.7%−2.6
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:54UCLA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:14FRES Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:2725% → 25%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
75.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 11 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
75.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+8
75.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
75.3%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-1
74.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q1 12:47
3RD & 11
OWN 46
0
74.8%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:33
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
74.9%
Carson King punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1875% → 74%
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
74.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+6
74.8%
Brittain Brown run for 6 yds to the UCLA 21Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 4
OWN 21
-10
74.7%
THOMPSON-ROBINSON, Dorian pass up the middle complete for 6 yards to MARTINEZ, Mike caught at the UCL26 and advanced to the UCL27 (KING JR., Sherwin;HOUSTON, Justin). PENALTY UCL Holding enforced 10 yards from the UCL21 to the UCL11 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 14
OWN 11
0
74.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:15
4TH & 14
OWN 11
0
74.4%
Luke Akers punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3TD
12 plays · 55 yds · 5:2126% → 29%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
74.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 4 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+18
74.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ty Jones for 18 yds to the UCLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
74.1%
Jake Haener run for 11 yds to the UCLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
74.1%
Jake Haener sacked by Qwuantrezz Knight for 0 yards to the UCLA 30Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 18
OPP 30
-1
74.3%
Jake Haener run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 31Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 19
OPP 31
-5
74.4%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jake Haener) to the UCLA 36Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 24
OPP 36
+25
74.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ty Jones for 25 yds to the UCLA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
74.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 3 yds to the UCLA 8Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+7
72.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 7 yds to the UCLA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
72.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the UCLA 1Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.6%
Ronnie Rivers 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 1:4971% → 75%
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+38
71.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kam Brown for 38 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
72.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
72.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
72.4%
Ethan Fernea run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+6
74.8%
Zach Charbonnet run for 6 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5TD
16 plays · 79 yds · 7:0627% → 37%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
73.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Raymond Pauwels Jr. for 14 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
73.1%
Jake Haener run for no gain to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+17
73.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 17 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
72.3%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 15
OWN 47
0
72.2%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 15
OWN 47
+1
72.8%
Jake Haener run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q1 1:31
3RD & 14
OWN 48
+10
73.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 10 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 42
+10
72.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 10 yds to the UCLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
70.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 6 yds to the UCLA 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+1
70.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 1 yd to the UCLA 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+4
71.3%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the UCLA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
70.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 1 yd to the UCLA 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+19
70.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 19 yds to the UCLA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
70.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the UCLA 1Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.0%
Jalen Cropper run for 1 yd for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5669% → 69%
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
68.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 2
OPP 18
-1
68.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 3
OPP 19
-1
67.6%
Brittain Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+39
69.1%
Nicholas Barr-Mira 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0632% → 47%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
67.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ty Jones for 5 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
67.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ty Jones for 7 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
67.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+9
66.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 9 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
65.7%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-5
65.9%
RIVERS, Ronnie rush to the right for a gain of 3 yards to the UCL42 (AGUDE, Mitchell). PENALTY Before the snap, FRS Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the UCL45 to the FRS50. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 15
50
+14
66.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 14 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+36
53.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for 36 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3556% → 54%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
56.1%
Zach Charbonnet run for 1 yd to the UCLA 10Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+3
56.2%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the UCLA 13Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 6
OWN 13
0
55.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:57
4TH & 6
OWN 13
+48
53.8%
Luke Akers punt for 48 yds , Ronnie Rivers returns for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9INT
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:5248% → 53%
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
52.3%
Jake Haener run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
52.4%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:57
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+6
52.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ty Jones for 6 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q2 4:57
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+5
53.2%
UCLA Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
51.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 9 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+2
51.3%
Jake Haener run for 2 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
51.5%
Jake Haener sacked by Datona Jackson for 0 yards to the UCLA 42Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 15
OPP 42
0
47.4%
Jake Haener pass intercepted Kenny Churchwell III return for no gain to the UCLA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10FUMBLE
1 play · -13 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-13
50.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for a loss of 13 yards to the UCLA 20 fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Leonard Payne Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11FG
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:5055% → 67%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
45.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the UCLA 17Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+8
44.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Juan Rodriguez for 8 yds to the UCLA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
44.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Juan Rodriguez for 5 yds to the UCLA 4Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
42.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
42.8%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
33.4%
Abraham Montano 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
45.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 5 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 13TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:2445% → 58%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
45.0%
Brittain Brown run for 5 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
45.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kam Brown for 15 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
46.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-2
46.1%
Brittain Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 43Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+18
44.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 18 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
58.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kam Brown for 39 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:0149% → 48%
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
51.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 10 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
50.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 4 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
49.2%
Jake Haener run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q3 12:29
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-2
49.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q3 10:28
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
49.8%
Carson King punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Kyle Philips at the UCLA 8Similar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
52.3%
ALLEN, Kazmeir rush to the left for a gain of 10 yards to the UCL18 (WILLIAMS, Evan), out of bounds. PENALTY UCL Holding on DULCICH, Greg enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the UCL8 to the UCL4 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0052% → 49%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 14
OWN 4
+9
52.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 9 yds to the UCLA 13Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+1
52.8%
Zach Charbonnet run for 1 yd to the UCLA 14Similar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+1
51.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 1 yd to the UCLA 15Similar
Q3 8:28
4TH & 3
OWN 15
0
48.9%
Luke Akers punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16FG
5 plays · 30 yds · 0:5556% → 59%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+30
44.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 30 yds to the UCLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
43.3%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
43.6%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
44.5%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:33
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+39
40.6%
Abraham Montano 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:5442% → 40%
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
42.0%
Brittain Brown run for 3 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
42.4%
Brittain Brown run for 3 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
41.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 9 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
43.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 6 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+2
44.8%
Brittain Brown run for 2 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+1
44.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 1 yd to the UCLA 49Similar
Q3 4:39
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
40.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for no gain to the UCLA 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4365% → 65%
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
35.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 6 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+2
35.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+1
35.9%
Jake Haener run for 1 yd to the UCLA 40Similar
Q3 2:56
4TH & 1
OPP 40
0
34.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the UCLA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 3:4165% → 69%
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
35.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+1
34.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q3 2:47
3RD & 1
OWN 24
0
34.9%
Jordan Mims run for no gain to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q3 2:47
4TH & 1
OWN 24
+5
36.4%
UCLA Penalty, Offsides (Ale Kaho) to the FrsSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
34.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 9 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 38
0
28.1%
Jake Haener sacked by Bo Calvert for 0 yards to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+2
30.4%
Jake Haener run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q4 14:06
4TH & 3
OWN 36
+22
30.9%
Carson King punt for 52 yds , Kyle Philips returns for 22 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5432% → 29%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
32.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
31.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for 5 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
32.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:12
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
29.4%
Luke Akers punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21FUMBLE
8 plays · 33 yds · 3:4970% → 81%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
29.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 15
OWN 19
+22
30.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 22 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
27.2%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (Dontae Bull) to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+31
29.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 31 yds to the UCLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
25.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Juan Rodriguez for 12 yds to the UCLA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
25.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 12 yds to the UCLA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
25.3%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-34
18.6%
Jake Haener run for a loss of 34 yards to the UCLA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 22TD
3 plays · 57 yds · 1:1324% → 59%
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
23.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+6
26.4%
Brittain Brown run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
59.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 42 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23FUMBLE
1 play · 13 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
44.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 13 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 24TD
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:3061% → 83%
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
61.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+15
61.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 15 yds to the FrsSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
82.7%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds for a TD, (D. Thompson-Robinson Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 25TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:3229% → 77%
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
71.5%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Illegal Snap on SCHMIDT, Bula enforced (Bula Schmidt) to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+28
71.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 28 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
66.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 9 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+4
64.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
69.1%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+8
69.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 8 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+9
69.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 9 yds to the UCLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+13
66.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 13 yds to the UCLA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
66.6%
RIVERS, Ronnie rush to the left for a gain of 8 yards to the UCL1 (JOHNSON, Caleb). PENALTY FRS Holding on ADKINS JR., Dante enforced 10 yards from the UCL9 to the UCL19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
-5
67.3%
HAENER, Jake pass up the middle incomplete intended for RODRIGUEZ, Juan thrown to the UCL7. PENALTY FRS Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on VAVAO, Mose enforced 5 yards from the UCL19 to the UCL24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 24
+5
68.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 5 yds to the UCLA 19Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
0
68.8%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
+19
22.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 19 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 26TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:0139% → 95%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
37.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 18 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
42.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 4 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 6
OWN 47
-5
44.3%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Greg Dulcich) to the UCLA 42Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+5
40.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kam Brown for 5 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+13
42.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 13 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
45.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Brittain Brown for 9 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 1
OPP 31
0
49.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+1
45.9%
Brittain Brown run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
49.2%
THOMPSON-ROBINSON, Dorian pass up the middle incomplete intended for ALLEN, Kazmeir broken up by BLAND, DaRon at the FRS20. PENALTY FRS Pass Interference on BLAND, DaRon enforced 15 yards to the FRS15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
95.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 15 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 27TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:4017% → 95%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.8%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
83.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 10 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+27
81.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 27 yds to the UCLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+26
75.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 26 yds to the UCLA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
68.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 13Similar
Q4 0:14
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+13
5.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 13 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 28END OF GAME
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:0817% → 16%
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
17.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kam Brown for 14 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
15.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:14
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 13 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK)
-62.6
TD · Q4 2:55
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 19 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK)
-45.9
TD · Q4 0:54
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 15 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)
+45.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com