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STBK

Stony Brook 7 at Oregon 48

ORE
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadSTBK aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreSTBK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:01 · Tom Snee punt for 51 yds , Seba Nekhet returns for no gain to the StBrk 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 67Pregame prior+40.6Home team on offense+6.5Score differential+1.0Garbage-time factor+1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:00: Ty Son Lawton run for 5 yds for a TD, (Angelo Guglielmello KICK) — STBK win probability +0.6 pts (now 3%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 12:03: Anthony Brown run for 7 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +0.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:45: Ty Thompson pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +2.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:38: Travis Dye run for 3 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +1.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 13:08: Camden Lewis 35 yd FG GOOD — ORE win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 6STBK made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:23ORE 4th & 4 at STBK 22, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.7%−<0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:02STBK 4th & 5 at STBK 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:12STBK 4th & 4 at ORE 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:10STBK 4th & 5 at ORE 40, down 10
    Close callPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:01ORE 4th & 12 at ORE 34, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:22ORE 4th & 13 at ORE 37, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−0.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:50STBK 4th & 10 at STBK 13, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:27STBK 4th & 7 at STBK 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:35ORE 4th & 2 at ORE 45, up 17
    Close callPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:47STBK 4th & 30 at STBK 5, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:08ORE 4th & 10 at STBK 17, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.3%
    80% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:37STBK 4th & 5 at ORE 46, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:15ORE 4th & 1 at ORE 44, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6STBK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 5:18ORE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:00STBK Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:03ORE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:45ORE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:38ORE Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:26ORE Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:42ORE Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STBKDrive 1INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:331% → 1%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.9%
Ty Son Lawton run for 4 yds to the StBrk 29Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
98.9%
Tyquell Fields pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
98.9%
Tyquell Fields pass intercepted Verone McKinley III return for no gain to the StBrk 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2FG
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:5099% → 99%
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
98.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kris Hutson for 6 yds to the StBrk 40Similar
Q1 13:51
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+12
98.8%
Travis Dye run for 12 yds to the StBrk 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
98.8%
Travis Dye run for 5 yds to the StBrk 23Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 5
OPP 23
0
98.8%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Mycah PittmanSimilar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+1
98.8%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the StBrk 22Similar
Q1 12:23
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+40
98.7%
Camden Lewis 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:161% → 2%
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.7%
Ty Son Lawton run for 2 yds to the StBrk 27Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
98.7%
Ty Son Lawton run for 7 yds to the StBrk 34Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
98.6%
Ty Son Lawton run for 9 yds to the StBrk 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
98.5%
Seba Nekhet run for 2 yds to the StBrk 45Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+3
98.5%
Tyquell Fields run for 3 yds to the StBrk 48Similar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
98.4%
Tyquell Fields pass incomplete to Shawn Harris Jr.Similar
Q1 9:02
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
98.4%
Mitchell Wright punt for 38 yds, downed at the Oregn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4TD
10 plays · 86 yds · 3:3798% → 98%
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
98.4%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+12
98.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 12 yds to the Oregn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
98.3%
CJ Verdell run for 5 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+7
98.3%
CJ Verdell run for 7 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
98.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 6 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+17
98.3%
CJ Verdell run for 17 yds to the StBrk 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
98.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Troy Franklin for 15 yds to the StBrk 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
98.2%
CJ Verdell run for 9 yds to the StBrk 13Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+4
98.2%
CJ Verdell run for 4 yds to the StBrk 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
98.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to CJ Verdell for 9 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 5TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:112% → 3%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.2%
Tyquell Fields pass complete to Shawn Harris Jr. for 7 yds to the StBrk 32Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
98.1%
Seba Nekhet run for 3 yds to the StBrk 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
98.1%
Tyquell Fields pass complete to Khalil Newton for 22 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
98.0%
Ty Son Lawton run for 3 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
97.9%
Tyquell Fields pass incomplete to Khalil NewtonSimilar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+3
97.9%
Ty Son Lawton run for 3 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q1 2:12
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+14
98.0%
Tyquell Fields pass complete to Ty Son Lawton for 14 yds to the Oregn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
97.8%
Seba Nekhet run for 11 yds to the Oregn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
97.7%
Tyquell Fields run for 5 yds to the Oregn 7Similar
Q1 0:31
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+2
97.7%
Ty Son Lawton run for 2 yds to the Oregn 5Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+5
97.1%
Ty Son Lawton run for 5 yds for a TD, (Angelo Guglielmello KICK)Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 0
OPP 3
-5
97.0%
STONY BROOK Penalty, False Start (Thomas Dutton) to the Oregn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 2:4297% → 98%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
97.2%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+8
97.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 8 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
97.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 12 yds to the StBrk 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
97.2%
Travis Dye run for 7 yds to the StBrk 42Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+5
97.1%
STONY BROOK Penalty, Defensive Offside (Brandon Lopez) to the StBrk 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+30
97.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 30 yds to the StBrk 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
97.1%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Troy FranklinSimilar
Q2 12:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
97.7%
Anthony Brown run for 7 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:452% → 3%
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
97.6%
Tyquell Fields pass complete to Hunter Hayek for 5 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Mykael Wright) to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
97.3%
Ty Son Lawton run for 3 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
97.3%
Tyquell Fields pass incomplete to Shawn Harris Jr.Similar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 7
OPP 42
-5
97.4%
STONY BROOK Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 47Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 12
OPP 47
+7
97.5%
Tyquell Fields pass complete to Khalil Newton for 7 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q2 10:10
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
97.4%
Mitchell Wright punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Mycah Pittman at the Oregn 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:5997% → 97%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
97.2%
CJ Verdell run for 6 yds to the Oregn 13Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+8
97.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Troy Franklin for 8 yds to the Oregn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
97.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to CJ Verdell for 15 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
97.2%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Kris HutsonSimilar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-1
97.1%
CJ Verdell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 35Similar
Q2 8:09
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-10
97.0%
OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (T.J. Bass) to the Oregn 25Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 21
OWN 25
+9
97.0%
Anthony Brown run for 9 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q2 7:01
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
96.8%
Tom Snee punt for 51 yds , Seba Nekhet returns for no gain to the StBrk 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 9INT
12 plays · 64 yds · 4:343% → 4%
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
97.1%
Tyquell Fields pass incomplete to Khalil NewtonSimilar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-5
97.2%
STONY BROOK Penalty, False Start (Thomas Dutton) to the StBrk 10Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 15
OWN 10
+1
97.2%
Seba Nekhet run for 1 yd to the StBrk 11Similar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 14
OWN 11
+49
97.1%
Tyquell Fields pass complete to Shawn Harris Jr. for 49 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
96.6%
Ty Son Lawton run for 6 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 4
OPP 34
0
96.4%
Ty Son Lawton run for no gain to the Oregn 34Similar
Q2 4:27
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+9
96.4%
Ty Son Lawton run for 9 yds to the Oregn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
96.2%
Seba Nekhet run for 4 yds to the Oregn 21Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+5
96.1%
Tyquell Fields pass complete to Khalil Newton for 5 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
Q2 2:52
3RD & 1
OPP 16
-5
96.3%
STONY BROOK Penalty, False Start (Larry Ross Jr.) to the Oregn 21Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
96.0%
Tyquell Fields pass intercepted Verone McKinley III return for no gain to the Oregn 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10END OF HALF
11 plays · 32 yds · 1:5896% → 96%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
96.3%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the Oregn 5Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+12
96.0%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 12 yds to the Oregn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+13
96.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 13 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
96.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 9 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 1
OWN 39
0
96.4%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Devon WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+5
96.3%
STONY BROOK Penalty, Defensive Offside (Renoldo Spivey Jr.) to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
96.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 4 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 6
OWN 48
-9
96.2%
Anthony Brown sacked by Jabari Reddock for a loss of 9 yards to the Oregn 39Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 15
OWN 39
-6
95.9%
Anthony Brown sacked by Tyler King for a loss of 6 yards to the Oregn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:2596% → 95%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
96.1%
CJ Verdell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 39Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 11
OWN 39
-10
95.9%
OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Alex Forsyth) to the Oregn 29Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 21
OWN 29
+8
95.6%
Ty Thompson pass complete to CJ Verdell for 8 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 13
OWN 37
0
95.4%
Ty Thompson pass incomplete to Terrance FergusonSimilar
Q3 13:22
4TH & 13
OWN 37
0
95.2%
Tom Snee punt for 50 yds , Seba Nekhet returns for no gain to the StBrk 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:254% → 4%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
95.6%
Ty Son Lawton run for a loss of 1 yard to the StBrk 12Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 11
OWN 12
+1
95.6%
Tyquell Fields run for 1 yd to the StBrk 13Similar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 10
OWN 13
0
95.6%
Tyquell Fields pass incomplete to Shawn Harris Jr.Similar
Q3 11:50
4TH & 10
OWN 13
0
95.7%
Mitchell Wright punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Mycah Pittman at the StBrk 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13TD
11 plays · 48 yds · 3:5896% → 98%
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
95.8%
Travis Dye run for no gain to the StBrk 48Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+24
95.8%
Travis Dye run for 24 yds to the StBrk 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
95.8%
Travis Dye run for 12 yds to the StBrk 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
95.7%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the StBrk 10Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+5
95.6%
Travis Dye run for 5 yds to the StBrk 5Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+2
95.4%
STONY BROOK Penalty, Defensive Offside (Keith Winfrey) to the StBrk 3Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 1
OPP 3
-14
95.3%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the StBrk 2 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (George Moore) to the StBrk 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
95.5%
Ty Thompson pass incomplete to Terrance FergusonSimilar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+13
95.5%
Ty Thompson pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 13 yds to the StBrk 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
95.4%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the StBrk 1Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.1%
Ty Thompson pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 2:123% → 2%
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.3%
Ty Son Lawton run for 2 yds to the StBrk 27Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
97.5%
STONY BROOK Penalty, False Start (Cameron Lucas) to the StBrk 22Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
97.6%
Tyquell Fields pass incomplete to Delante Hellams Jr.Similar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+11
97.6%
Tyquell Fields pass complete to Shawn Harris Jr. for 11 yds to the StBrk 33Similar
Q3 6:11
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-5
97.5%
STONY BROOK Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the StBrk 28Similar
Q3 5:27
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+4
97.6%
Mitchell Wright punt for 39 yds , Mycah Pittman returns for 4 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4598% → 98%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
98.0%
CJ Verdell run for no gain to the Oregn 37Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
98.0%
Ty Thompson pass complete to CJ Verdell for 2 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q3 4:16
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+6
97.9%
CJ Verdell run for 6 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q3 3:35
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
97.7%
Tom Snee punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the StBrk 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 16INT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:342% → 2%
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
97.6%
Seba Nekhet run for 3 yds to the StBrk 21Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 7
OWN 21
-24
97.6%
Tyquell Fields pass intercepted Bennett Williams return for 24 yds to the StBrk 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17TD
3 plays · 11 yds · 1:0998% → 99%
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
98.0%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the StBrk 7Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+4
98.1%
Ty Thompson pass complete to Travis Dye for 4 yds to the StBrk 3Similar
Q3 1:38
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
99.3%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -20 yds · 1:441% → 1%
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
99.2%
STONY BROOK Penalty, Offensive Holding (Damien Caffrey) to the StBrk 15Similar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-1
99.2%
Ty Son Lawton run for a loss of 1 yard to the StBrk 14Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 21
OWN 14
-9
99.3%
Tyquell Fields sacked by Sua'ava Poti for a loss of 9 yards to the StBrk 5Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 30
OWN 5
0
99.3%
Tyquell Fields pass incomplete to Khalil NewtonSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 30
OWN 5
+10
99.3%
Mitchell Wright punt for 37 yds , Mycah Pittman returns for 10 yds to the StBrk 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19FG
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:3399% → 100%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
99.3%
STONY BROOK Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jabari Reddock) to the StBrk 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
99.3%
Ty Thompson pass incomplete to Kris HutsonSimilar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+5
99.3%
Trey Benson run for 5 yds to the StBrk 12Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 5
OPP 12
-5
99.4%
Ty Thompson sacked by Makye Smith and Carthell Flowers for a loss of 5 yards to the StBrk 17Similar
Q4 13:08
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+35
99.9%
Camden Lewis 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 20DOWNS
11 plays · 29 yds · 4:240% → 0%
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Seba Nekhet run for 5 yds to the StBrk 30Similar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
99.9%
Tyquell Fields pass complete to Delante Hellams Jr. for 8 yds to the StBrk 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
99.9%
Roland Dempster run for 5 yds to the StBrk 43Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+4
99.9%
Roland Dempster run for 4 yds to the StBrk 47Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+2
99.9%
Tyquell Fields run for 2 yds to the StBrk 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Tyquell Fields pass incomplete to Khalil NewtonSimilar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
99.9%
Tyquell Fields run for 2 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+3
99.9%
Tyquell Fields pass complete to Seba Nekhet for 3 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q4 8:37
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Tyquell Fields pass incomplete to Hunter HayekSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21TD
2 plays · 54 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
99.9%
Ty Thompson pass complete to Dont'e Thornton for 54 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
99.9%
OREGON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Devon Williams) to the Oregn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 22FUMBLE
5 plays · 35 yds · 1:170% → 0%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
100.0%
Roland Dempster run for 7 yds to the StBrk 37Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+15
100.0%
OREGON Penalty, Roughing Passer (Jamal Hill) to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
100.0%
Joshua Zamot run for 5 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+8
100.0%
Jayden Cook run for 8 yds to the Oregn 35 Jayden Cook fumbled, forced by Brandon Buckner, recovered by Oregn Brandon BucknerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 23TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:07100% → 100%
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.9%
Byron Cardwell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+6
99.9%
Jay Butterfield pass complete to Dont'e Thornton for 6 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q4 5:38
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
100.0%
Seven McGee run for no gain to the Oregn 44Similar
Q4 5:15
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+6
100.0%
Byron Cardwell run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
50
+3
100.0%
Trey Benson run for 3 yds to the StBrk 47Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
100.0%
Jay Butterfield pass incomplete to Cooper ShultsSimilar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+16
100.0%
Jay Butterfield pass complete to Isaah Crocker for 16 yds to the StBrk 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+20
100.0%
Seven McGee run for 8 yds to the StBrk 23 for a 1ST down STONY BROOK Penalty, Face Mask (12 yards) (Calique Cato-Jacobs) to the StBrk 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
100.0%
Byron Cardwell run for 8 yds to the StBrk 3Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+3
100.0%
Trey Benson 3 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 24END OF GAME
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:340% → 0%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
100.0%
Joshua Zamot run for a loss of 3 yards to the StBrk 22Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+9
100.0%
Roland Dempster run for 9 yds to the StBrk 31Similar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
100.0%
Joshua Zamot run for 7 yds to the StBrk 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
100.0%
Jayden Cook run for 3 yds to the StBrk 41Similar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+4
100.0%
Roland Dempster run for 4 yds to the StBrk 45Similar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+5
100.0%
Roland Dempster run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:45
Ty Thompson pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
+2.8
TD · Q3 1:38
Travis Dye run for 3 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
+1.2
TD · Q1 0:00
Ty Son Lawton run for 5 yds for a TD, (Angelo Guglielmello KICK)
-0.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com