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SDSU

San Diego State 38 at Arizona 14

ARIZ
2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:04 · Kyle Ostendorp punt for 51 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for no gain to the SDSt 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingRule era
+53.0+26.50−26.5−53.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 34Home team on offense−5.5Score differential−2.9Garbage-time factor−1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Rule era+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:12: Jordon Brookshire run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +2.9 pts (now 53%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 7:07: Tyrell Shavers 27 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Matt Araiza Kick) — SDSU win probability +6.5 pts (now 58%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 5:50: Gunner Cruz pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 43 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +4.2 pts (now 47%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 12:29: Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 25 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +13.1 pts (now 74%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 1:52: Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Ethan Dedeaux for 40 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +6.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 10 of 11SDSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 12:20ARIZ 4th & 3 at ARIZ 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:07ARIZ 4th & 4 at ARIZ 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:07SDSU 4th & 20 at SDSU 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−1.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:04ARIZ 4th & 4 at ARIZ 27, down 14
    Close callPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:58SDSU 4th & 10 at ARIZ 47, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:28ARIZ 4th & 12 at ARIZ 15, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−1.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:06SDSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 39, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:47ARIZ 4th & 14 at ARIZ 16, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:10ARIZ 4th & 11 at ARIZ 24, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:28ARIZ 4th & 6 at ARIZ 29, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:01SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 28, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:03ARIZ 4th & 17 at ARIZ 20, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:03SDSU 4th & 7 at SDSU 34, up 28
    Close callWent for it · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    94.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:13SDSU 4th & 15 at ARIZ 15, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.8%
    83% to make
    Punt
    96.4%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:36ARIZ 4th & 6 at ARIZ 29, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:49SDSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 42, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:28ARIZ 4th & 5 at ARIZ 25, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:16SDSU 4th & 3 at SDSU 34, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:32SDSU 4th & 7 at ARIZ 36, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    98.9%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:43ARIZ 4th & 20 at SDSU 20, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 2SDSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:22SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:12SDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:07SDSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 5:50ARIZ Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:29SDSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:52SDSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:24ARIZ Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:3849% → 49%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
51.3%
Jordon Brookshire run for 6 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
51.3%
Greg Bell run for 9 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
51.3%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 5 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+55
50.8%
Greg Bell run for 55 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0251% → 51%
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
51.0%
Michael Wiley run for 2 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
51.0%
Michael Wiley run for 5 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
51.0%
Gunner Cruz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:20
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
50.6%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 64 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 96 yds · 3:0849% → 53%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 11
OWN 4
+2
50.8%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the SDSt 6Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+5
50.8%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the SDSt 11Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 4
OWN 11
+1
50.8%
Kaegun Williams run for 1 yd to the SDSt 12Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 3
OWN 12
+73
50.9%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 73 yds to the Ariz 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
50.4%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the Ariz 13Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+10
50.4%
Jordon Brookshire run for 10 yds to the Ariz 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
47.5%
Jordon Brookshire run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4PUNT TD
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:0548% → 42%
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
48.0%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to BJ Casteel for 7 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
48.2%
Michael Wiley run for 1 yd to the Ariz 33Similar
Q1 9:12
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-2
48.2%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Michael Wiley for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 31Similar
Q1 7:07
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+27
41.6%
Tyrell Shavers 27 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Matt Araiza Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1742% → 47%
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
41.7%
Gunner Cruz run for 9 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+23
42.3%
Stanley Berryhill III run for 23 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
42.5%
Gunner Cruz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+43
46.6%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 43 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:4355% → 57%
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
44.8%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
44.7%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Kaegun Williams for 13 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 21
OWN 29
+5
44.9%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 5 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 16
OWN 34
0
45.1%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
44.3%
Jordon Brookshire sacked by Trevon Mason and Kyon Barrs for 0 yards to the SDSt 29Similar
Q1 3:07
4TH & 20
OWN 30
0
43.5%
Matt Araiza punt for 61 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:0343% → 42%
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+12
43.0%
Drake Anderson run for 12 yds to the Ariz 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
43.1%
Drake Anderson run for 2 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
43.2%
Gunner Cruz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:07
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+4
42.9%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 4 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q1 1:04
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
41.9%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 51 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for no gain to the SDSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 3:3559% → 74%
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
41.4%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to BJ Busbee for 4 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+15
40.5%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 15 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
39.8%
Jordon Brookshire run for 5 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+15
39.8%
Jesse Matthews run for 15 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
39.8%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the Ariz 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+15
39.8%
BROOKSHIRE, Jordon pass up the middle incomplete intended for MATTHEWS, Jesse thrown to the ARI10. PENALTY ARI Pass Interference on ROLAND-WALLACE, Christian enforced 15 yards from the ARI38 to the ARI23 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
39.7%
Chance Bell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 25Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 12
OPP 25
+25
26.5%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 25 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:3930% → 25%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
30.2%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 24Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-5
30.0%
ROCKER JR., Stevie rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the ARI26 (BANKS, Keshawn;DRAEGER, Wyatt). PENALTY Before the snap, ARI False Start on CUNNINGHAM, Tayvian enforced 5 yards from the ARI24 to the ARI19. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
30.0%
Gunner Cruz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+7
28.2%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 56 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 7 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
25.1%
BROOKSHIRE, Jordon pass to the left incomplete intended for SHAVERS, Tyrell thrown to the ARI32. PENALTY ARI Holding on TURNER, Jaxen enforced 10 yards from the SDS32 to the SDS42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:5275% → 73%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
24.7%
Greg Bell run for 11 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
24.4%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Ethan Dedeaux for 3 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+2
24.5%
Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 5
OPP 42
-5
24.9%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 47Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
24.8%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:58
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
23.3%
Matt Araiza punt for 30 yds, downed at the Ariz 17Similar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
26.6%
WILEY, Michael rush up the middle for no gain to the ARI17 (BARFIELD, Cedarious;TUMBLIN, Noah). PENALTY ARI Holding on DONOVAN, Josh enforced half the distance from the goal, 8 yards from the ARI17 to the ARI9 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:3026% → 24%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 18
OWN 9
+5
26.3%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to BJ Casteel for 5 yds to the Ariz 14Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 13
OWN 14
0
26.4%
Gunner Cruz sacked by Cameron Thomas for 0 yards to the Ariz 8Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 19
OWN 8
+7
26.1%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Bryce Wolma for 7 yds to the Ariz 15Similar
Q2 6:28
4TH & 12
OWN 15
0
24.4%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 50 yds, downed at the SDSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:2279% → 81%
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
21.3%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
20.8%
Jordon Brookshire run for 5 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
21.2%
Chance Bell run for no gain to the SDSt 44Similar
Q2 6:28
4TH & 1
OWN 44
-5
21.9%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 39Similar
Q2 4:06
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
19.3%
Matt Araiza punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1923% → 21%
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
22.6%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to BJ Casteel for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 19Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
22.3%
Gunner Cruz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
22.2%
Gunner Cruz sacked by Andrew Aleki for 0 yards to the Ariz 16Similar
Q2 2:47
4TH & 14
OWN 16
+10
20.8%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 50 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 10 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14TD
3 plays · 56 yds · 0:5583% → 89%
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
17.4%
Greg Bell run for 14 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
17.2%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+40
10.6%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Ethan Dedeaux for 40 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4212% → 7%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
11.9%
Drake Anderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 22Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+2
11.5%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 2 yds to the Ariz 24Similar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
11.4%
Gunner Cruz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
7.2%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16MISSED FG
5 plays · 29 yds · 1:1090% → 93%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
10.3%
Chance Bell run for 16 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
10.0%
Chance Bell run for no gain to the SDSt 47Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
10.0%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+13
7.6%
Chance Bell run for 13 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+57
7.0%
Matt Araiza 57 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:326% → 5%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
6.4%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to BJ Casteel for 6 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
6.0%
Michael Wiley run for 2 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-4
6.0%
Michael Wiley run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ariz 29Similar
Q3 13:28
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
5.4%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2794% → 94%
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
6.3%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jordan Byrd for no gain to the SDSt 27Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+1
6.3%
Jesse Matthews run for 1 yd to the SDSt 28Similar
Q3 13:28
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
6.6%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:01
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
5.8%
Matt Araiza punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Stanley Berryhill III at the Ariz 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:585% → 5%
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
5.2%
Gunner Cruz sacked by Segun Olubi for 0 yards to the Ariz 20Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 17
OWN 20
0
5.0%
Gunner Cruz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:01
3RD & 17
OWN 20
0
4.9%
Gunner Cruz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:03
4TH & 17
OWN 20
+9
4.5%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 43 yds for a 1ST down , Jordan Byrd returns for 9 yds to the SDSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20END OF HALF
5 plays · 0 yds · 11:0395% → 99%
Q3 11:03
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
4.9%
Kaegun Williams run for no gain to the SDSt 33Similar
Q3 11:03
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+1
5.0%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 34Similar
Q3 11:03
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
5.3%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
4.1%
Matt Araiza punt for 51 yds , Stanley Berryhill III returns for 4 yds to the Ariz 19Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
1.0%
Kaegun Williams run for 2 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21INT
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:404% → 4%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
3.9%
Drake Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 18Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 11
OWN 18
0
3.8%
Gunner Cruz pass intercepted for a 1ST down return for no gain to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22FG
7 plays · 6 yds · 3:2297% → 96%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
3.4%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the Ariz 18Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+14
3.4%
Greg Bell run for 14 yds to the Ariz 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
3.3%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the Ariz 3Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-7
3.1%
Jordon Brookshire run for a loss of 7 yards to the Ariz 10 fumbled, recovered by SDSt Jordon BrookshireSimilar
Q3 8:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
3.6%
BELL, Greg rush up the middle for a gain of 6 yards to the ARI4 (TURNER, Jaxen). PENALTY SDS Holding on BELLINGER, Daniel enforced 10 yards from the ARI10 to the ARI20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
+5
3.6%
Greg Bell run for 5 yds to the Ariz 15Similar
Q3 5:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+32
3.7%
Matt Araiza 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:372% → 2%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.3%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
2.2%
Will Plummer pass complete to Michael Wiley for no gain to the Ariz 25Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
2.2%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 9 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q3 5:13
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
2.2%
ARIZONA Penalty, False Start (Edgar Burrola) to the Ariz 29Similar
Q3 3:36
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
1.7%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 71 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:4798% → 99%
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
1.6%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 16Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+3
1.7%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 19Similar
Q3 3:36
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+15
1.7%
Chance Bell run for 15 yds to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
1.6%
Chance Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 35Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+8
1.6%
Chance Bell run for 8 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 43
-1
0.9%
Chance Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 42Similar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
0.9%
Matt Araiza punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:211% → 1%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
0.9%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-2
0.8%
Drake Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 18Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+7
0.8%
Will Plummer run for 7 yds to the Ariz 25Similar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
0.6%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:1299% → 99%
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
0.8%
Jordan Byrd run for 2 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+5
0.8%
Lucas Johnson run for 5 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q4 13:28
3RD & 3
OWN 34
0
0.8%
Jordan Byrd run for no gain to the SDSt 34Similar
Q4 11:16
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
0.6%
Matt Araiza punt for 66 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 27TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 2:521% → 3%
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
0.5%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
0.4%
Stanley Berryhill III run for 3 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q4 11:16
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+9
0.4%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 9 yds to the Ariz 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
0.5%
Will Plummer pass complete to BJ Casteel for 9 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+15
0.5%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle on THOMPSON, Trenton enforced (Trenton Thompson) to the SDSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
0.5%
Will Plummer sacked by Caden McDonald for 0 yards to the SDSt 34Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 14
OPP 34
0
0.5%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 14
OPP 34
0
0.3%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
0.4%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jonah Tavai) to the SDSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
0.4%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
2.7%
Will Plummer pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 7 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 28DOWNS
8 plays · 39 yds · 3:5298% → 99%
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
1.7%
Kaegun Williams run for 23 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
1.6%
Kaegun Williams run for 5 yds to the Ariz 47Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+4
1.6%
Kaegun Williams run for 4 yds to the Ariz 43Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+4
1.6%
Kaegun Williams run for 4 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-4
1.0%
Kaegun Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ariz 43Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 14
OPP 43
+3
1.0%
Kaegun Williams run for 3 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+4
0.9%
Kaegun Williams run for 4 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q4 4:32
4TH & 7
OPP 36
0
1.0%
Lucas Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 29DOWNS
6 plays · 57 yds · 0:491% → 1%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+54
1.1%
Will Plummer pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 54 yds to the SDSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
1.4%
ANDERSON, Drake rush to the right for a gain of 10 yards to the SDS0 (TEAM). PENALTY ARI Holding on MORGAN, Jordan enforced 10 yards from the SDS10 to the SDS20 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
0
1.3%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 20
0
1.3%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
0
1.3%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 20
+13
1.1%
Will Plummer run for 13 yds to the SDSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 30END OF GAME
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
0.9%
Jaylon Armstead run for 8 yds to the SDSt 15Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 2
OWN 15
+1
0.9%
Jaylon Armstead run for 1 yd to the SDSt 16Similar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+4
1.0%
Jaylon Armstead run for 4 yds to the SDSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
0.9%
Lucas Johnson run for 13 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:29
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 25 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)
-13.1
TD · Q2 1:52
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Ethan Dedeaux for 40 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)
-6.7
TD · Q1 7:07
Tyrell Shavers 27 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Matt Araiza Kick)
-6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com