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STAN

Stanford 42 at USC 28

USC
2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+3.7USC 76.7%Alex Stadthaus 24 Yd Field GoalAWAY 14 - HOME 10 · Q2 1:56
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:56 · Alex Stadthaus 24 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 73Pregame prior+25.1Home team on offense−0.5Score differential−1.0Garbage-time factor−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:34: Elijah Higgins 3 Yd pass from Tanner McKee (Joshua Karty Kick) — STAN win probability +5.7 pts (now 24%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:09: Brycen Tremayne 6 Yd pass from Tanner McKee (Joshua Karty Kick) — STAN win probability +12.3 pts (now 45%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 9:14: Alex Stadthaus 33 Yd Field Goal — USC win probability +4.5 pts (now 58%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:02: Kyu Blu Kelly 31 Yd Interception Return (Joshua Karty Kick) — STAN win probability +19.9 pts (now 67%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:25: Tanner McKee 1 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick) — STAN win probability +12.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 6 of 7STAN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:52STAN 4th & 12 at USC 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    13.7%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:16USC 4th & 1 at USC 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:46USC 4th & 6 at USC 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:54STAN 4th & 13 at USC 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    18.7%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:17USC 4th & 1 at STAN 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    66.8%−2.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    61.1%−7.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:56USC 4th & 5 at STAN 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    59.6%−6.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:14USC 4th & 9 at STAN 16, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    37.6%−9.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:23STAN 4th & 11 at STAN 40, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−2.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:40USC 4th & 10 at USC 17, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−2.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:00USC 4th & 10 at USC 25, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−2.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:25STAN 4th & 8 at USC 31, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3STAN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 9:04STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:28USC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:34STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:09STAN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:02STAN Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:25STAN Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:16STAN Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:54USC Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.4%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:46USC Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    2.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 3:599% → 11%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
90.6%
USC Penalty, Personal Foul (Parker Lewis) to the Stanf 47 for a 1ST down. P. Lewis ejected for targeting.Similar
Q1 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
90.4%
Tanner McKee pass complete to E.J. Smith for 7 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+2
90.2%
Austin Jones run for 2 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
90.1%
Tanner McKee run for 2 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
89.8%
Casey Filkins run for a loss of 10 yards to the Stanf 48Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 20
OWN 48
-1
89.6%
Austin Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 47Similar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 21
OWN 47
+9
89.6%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 9 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q1 10:52
4TH & 12
OPP 44
0
89.5%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2989% → 89%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
89.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
89.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 6 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+3
89.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 3 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q1 9:16
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
88.9%
Ben Griffiths punt for 58 yds, fair catch by Casey Filkins at the Stanf 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3TD
1 play · 87 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+87
88.0%
Nathaniel Peat 87 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0488% → 87%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.8%
Keaontay Ingram run for no gain to the USC 25Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
87.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 7 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+2
86.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 2 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q1 6:46
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
86.5%
Ben Griffiths punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Casey Filkins at the Stanf 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 41 yds · 2:3814% → 15%
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
86.5%
Nathaniel Peat run for 6 yds to the Stanf 23Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+38
86.1%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 38 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
85.4%
Tanner McKee run for 1 yd to the USC 38Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+1
84.9%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the USC 37Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
84.5%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:00
4TH & 8
OPP 37
-5
84.8%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 42Similar
Q1 3:54
4TH & 13
OPP 42
0
85.0%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Gary Bryant Jr. at the USC 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6TD
16 plays · 95 yds · 5:1385% → 86%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+8
84.9%
Vavae Malepeai run for 8 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 2
OWN 13
+3
84.8%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the USC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
84.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Drake LondonSimilar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+9
84.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 9 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q1 2:58
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+4
84.5%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+39
84.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 39 yds to the Stanf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
84.8%
Vavae Malepeai run for 6 yds to the Stanf 26Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+7
84.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 7 yds to the Stanf 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
84.4%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the Stanf 16Similar
Q1 0:31
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+4
84.0%
Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds to the Stanf 12Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+7
83.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 7 yds to the Stanf 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
83.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Joseph Manjack IVSimilar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 0
OPP 5
+3
83.8%
Slovis, Kedon pass incomplete to Manjack IV, Joseph, PENALTY STANFORD pass interference (Williamson, Kendall) 3 yards to the STANFORD2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
Q2 14:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
83.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Drake LondonSimilar
Q2 14:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
83.2%
Keaontay Ingram run for no gain to the Stanf 2Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
86.0%
Keaontay Ingram 2 Yd Run (Alex Stadthaus Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7TD
13 plays · 73 yds · 4:4615% → 24%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.6%
Austin Jones run for 4 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+25
84.1%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Brycen Tremayne for 25 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
83.1%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+15
83.1%
USC Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Chris Steele) to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
82.7%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Austin Jones for 5 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+1
82.3%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the USC 25Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+15
82.4%
McKee, Tanner pass incomplete, PENALTY USC pass interference 15 yards to the USC10, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STANFORD.Similar
Q2 10:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
81.8%
Tanner McKee run for 3 yds to the USC 6Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
81.4%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the USC 5Similar
Q2 9:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
81.3%
Austin Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 7Similar
Q2 8:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
81.9%
Karty, Joshua field goal attempt from 25 GOOD, clock 08:39, PENALTY USC offside 3 yards to the USC4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
76.2%
Elijah Higgins 3 Yd pass from Tanner McKee (Joshua Karty Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8FG
18 plays · 68 yds · 6:2677% → 77%
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
76.9%
Kedon Slovis run for 4 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
75.8%
Vavae Malepeai run for 7 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
75.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 8 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+11
76.2%
Kedon Slovis run for 11 yds to the Stanf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
76.1%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the Stanf 41Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+8
75.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 8 yds to the Stanf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
76.0%
Keaontay Ingram run for 10 yds to the Stanf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
75.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 5 yds to the Stanf 18Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+4
74.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tahj Washington for 4 yds to the Stanf 14Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 1
OPP 14
0
73.7%
Kedon Slovis run for no gain to the Stanf 14Similar
Q2 3:17
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+2
73.7%
Kedon Slovis run for 2 yds to the Stanf 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
74.7%
Keaontay Ingram run for 5 yds to the Stanf 7Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 5
OPP 7
0
74.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
73.0%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Drake LondonSimilar
Q2 1:56
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+24
76.7%
Alex Stadthaus 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 1:2427% → 45%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
73.2%
Austin Jones run for 2 yds to the Stanf 36Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+49
72.7%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Austin Jones for 49 yds to the USC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
69.3%
Tanner McKee pass complete to John Humphreys for 9 yds to the USC 6Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+6
54.6%
Brycen Tremayne 6 Yd pass from Tanner McKee (Joshua Karty Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
61.4%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the USC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 5:3161% → 58%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
60.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 6 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
60.6%
Keaontay Ingram run for 1 yd to the USC 32Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
58.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Trigg for 7 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
58.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tahj Washington for 9 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+6
59.4%
Vavae Malepeai run for 6 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
59.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tahj Washington for 15 yds to the Stanf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
59.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tahj Washington for 4 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+10
56.9%
Vavae Malepeai run for 10 yds to the Stanf 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
56.2%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+1
55.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 1 yd to the Stanf 16Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 9
OPP 16
0
53.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Gary Bryant Jr.Similar
Q3 9:14
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+33
57.6%
Alex Stadthaus 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:4047% → 49%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
53.2%
Austin Jones run for 5 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
51.4%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Brycen TremayneSimilar
Q3 8:09
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
51.9%
Tanner McKee pass complete to John Humphreys for 11 yds to the Stanf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
48.9%
Austin Jones run for no gain to the Stanf 41Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-1
48.5%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 40Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 11
OWN 40
0
49.1%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Brycen TremayneSimilar
Q3 6:23
4TH & 11
OWN 40
+21
50.8%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 59 yds , Gary Bryant Jr. returns for 21 yds to the USC 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13INT TD
3 plays · 5 yds · 1:1451% → 33%
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
51.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 9 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 1
OWN 31
-4
53.3%
Keaontay Ingram run for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 27Similar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 5
OWN 27
-31
33.4%
Kyu Blu Kelly 31 Yd Interception Return (Joshua Karty Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 2:0933% → 27%
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
32.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Malcolm Epps for 4 yds to the USC 21Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+2
30.8%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 4
OWN 23
-11
28.6%
USC Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-11 Yards) to the USC 12Similar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 15
OWN 12
0
27.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Malcolm EppsSimilar
Q3 2:47
4TH & 15
OWN 12
+5
27.5%
STANFORD Penalty, Running Into Kicker (5 Yards) to the USC 17Similar
Q3 2:40
4TH & 10
OWN 17
0
27.3%
Ben Griffiths punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Casey Filkins at the Stanf 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:0578% → 94%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
22.2%
E.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+20
21.1%
Tanner McKee pass complete to John Humphreys for 20 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
20.1%
USC Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Greg Johnson) to the USC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+14
19.5%
USC Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Chris Steele) to the USC 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
19.2%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
18.5%
Isaiah Sanders run for 3 yds to the USC 1Similar
Q3 0:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.6%
Tanner McKee 1 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:177% → 7%
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
7.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Tahj WashingtonSimilar
Q3 0:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
7.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Tahj WashingtonSimilar
Q3 0:06
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
7.2%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Drake LondonSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+1
7.0%
Ben Griffiths punt for 43 yds , Casey Filkins returns for 1 yd to the Stanf 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 5:2994% → 100%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
5.6%
Nathaniel Peat run for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 30Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 13
OWN 30
+10
5.3%
Nathaniel Peat run for 10 yds to the Stanf 40Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+7
4.6%
Tanner McKee pass complete to E.J. Smith for 7 yds to the Stanf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
4.3%
STANFORD Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Stanf 37Similar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+10
4.0%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 10 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
3.6%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Elijah HigginsSimilar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+18
3.3%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 18 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
3.1%
Nathaniel Peat run for 15 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
2.8%
Nathaniel Peat run for no gain to the USC 20Similar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+18
2.5%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Brycen Tremayne for 18 yds to the USC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.5%
Isaiah Sanders 2 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 3:040% → 2%
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
0.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jude Wolfe for 9 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+22
0.4%
Keaontay Ingram run for 22 yds to the Stanf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
0.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tahj Washington for 8 yds to the Stanf 36Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+4
0.4%
Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds to the Stanf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
0.4%
Kedon Slovis run for 8 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+3
0.4%
Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the Stanf 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
0.4%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the Stanf 16Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 5
OPP 16
-16
0.3%
USC Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-16 Yards) to the Stanf 32Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 20
OPP 31
+20
0.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for 20 yds to the Stanf 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
2.0%
Drake London 11 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Alex Stadthaus Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19MISSED FG
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:1799% → 99%
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
0.9%
Casey Filkins run for 4 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+7
0.8%
Casey Filkins run for 7 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
0.8%
Casey Filkins run for 1 yd to the USC 32Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+1
0.7%
Casey Filkins run for 1 yd to the USC 31Similar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 8
OPP 31
0
0.6%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Brycen TremayneSimilar
Q4 3:25
4TH & 8
OPP 31
+49
0.7%
Joshua Karty 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20TD
12 plays · 69 yds · 2:251% → 3%
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
1.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Kyle Ford for 6 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+7
1.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tahj Washington for 7 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
1.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 1 yd to the USC 45Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
0.8%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Kyle FordSimilar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+4
0.8%
STANFORD Penalty, Defensive Offside (4 Yards) to the USC 49Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+13
0.8%
Darwin Barlow run for 13 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
0.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Kyle Ford for 12 yds to the Stanf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+17
1.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Kyle Ford for 17 yds to the Stanf 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
1.0%
Darwin Barlow run for 5 yds to the Stanf 4Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
0.8%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
3.0%
Darwin Barlow 4 Yd Run (Kedon Slovis Pass to Gary Bryant Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:3099% → 99%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
1.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 49Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 49
-2
1.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:02
Kyu Blu Kelly 31 Yd Interception Return (Joshua Karty Kick)
-19.9
TD · Q3 0:25
Tanner McKee 1 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)
-12.9
TD · Q2 0:09
Brycen Tremayne 6 Yd pass from Tanner McKee (Joshua Karty Kick)
-12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com