Try the model
BYU

BYU 24 at Arizona 16

ARIZ
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2021 · Allegiant Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDSAFETYTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:32 · Lucas Havrisik 31 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 68Pregame prior−21.0Home team on offense−2.6Score differential−1.6Garbage-time factor−2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:17: Tyler Allgeier run for 15 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed) — BYU win probability +4.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:06: Jaren Hall pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 67 yds for a TD, (Jaren Hall pass to Lopini Katoa for Two-Point Conversion) — BYU win probability +6.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:28: Jaren Hall pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 6 yds for a TD, (Justen Smith KICK) ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined — BYU win probability +7.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. SAFETY · Q3 3:12: Lopini Katoa run for a loss of 1 yard for a SAFETY — ARIZ win probability +3.8 pts (now 10%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:00: Gunner Cruz pass complete to BJ Casteel for 29 yds for a TD, (Gunner Cruz pass to BJ Casteel for Two-Point Conversion) — ARIZ win probability +10.9 pts (now 24%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 8 of 12BYU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 13:34BYU 4th & 10 at BYU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:15ARIZ 4th & 1 at ARIZ 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:01ARIZ 4th & 5 at ARIZ 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:26BYU 4th & 2 at BYU 24, tied
    Close callPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:34ARIZ 4th & 8 at ARIZ 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:20BYU 4th & 10 at ARIZ 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    73.4%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:40ARIZ 4th & 1 at ARIZ 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.6%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:15ARIZ 4th & 4 at ARIZ 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:20BYU 4th & 5 at ARIZ 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    69.5%−0.9
    23% to make
    Punt
    70.3%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:32ARIZ 4th & 1 at BYU 14, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.6%−1.8
    84% to make
    Punt
    20.5%−6.9
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:13ARIZ 4th & 8 at BYU 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    14.7%−2.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:16ARIZ 4th & 22 at ARIZ 43, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−2.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:23ARIZ 4th & 14 at BYU 37, down 18
    Close callPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    10.0%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:25BYU 4th & 6 at BYU 29, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:20ARIZ 4th & 2 at BYU 15, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    19.4%−0.9
    83% to make
    Punt
    8.7%−11.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:42ARIZ 4th & 24 at BYU 26, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−4.8
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    10.0%−8.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:34BYU 4th & 4 at ARIZ 23, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.3%−0.5
    70% to make
    Punt
    78.2%−8.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:24BYU 4th & 15 at BYU 25, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:49ARIZ 4th & 5 at BYU 19, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.0%−1.3
    77% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 0 of 1BYU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q2 9:17BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    75.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:06BYU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    81.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:28BYU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:00ARIZ Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    20.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    20.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:1982% → 81%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.3%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Gunner RomneySimilar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
18.5%
Tyler Allgeier run for 4 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
18.8%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Masen Wake for 10 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
18.8%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Gunner RomneySimilar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
18.8%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Keanu HillSimilar
Q1 13:41
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
18.9%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Neil Pau'uSimilar
Q1 13:34
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
19.0%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Stanley Berryhill III at the Ariz 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:1419% → 21%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
19.1%
Michael Wiley run for 1 yd to the Ariz 16Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+7
19.3%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Michael Wiley for 7 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+1
19.5%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 1 yd to the Ariz 24Similar
Q1 12:15
4TH & 1
OWN 24
+2
19.5%
Gunner Cruz run for 2 yds to the Ariz 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
20.3%
Michael Wiley run for 3 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+2
20.5%
Michael Wiley run for 2 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q1 10:12
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
20.6%
Gunner Cruz pass incomplete to Michael WileySimilar
Q1 10:01
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
20.6%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 53 yds, downed at the BYU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2879% → 78%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
20.8%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Neil Pau'uSimilar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+7
21.2%
Tyler Allgeier run for 7 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+1
21.4%
Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd to the BYU 24Similar
Q1 8:26
4TH & 2
OWN 24
+10
21.8%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 46 yds , Stanley Berryhill III returns for 10 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4422% → 22%
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
21.9%
Gunner Cruz pass incomplete to Tayvian CunninghamSimilar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
22.0%
Michael Wiley run for 2 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
21.9%
Gunner Cruz pass incomplete to Bryce WolmaSimilar
Q1 7:34
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
21.8%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 47 yds · 4:4078% → 75%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
22.3%
Lopini Katoa run for 4 yds to the BYU 13Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+16
22.5%
Lopini Katoa run for 16 yds to the BYU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
22.6%
Lopini Katoa run for 4 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+13
22.8%
Tyler Allgeier run for 13 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
22.6%
Tyler Allgeier run for 9 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+1
22.7%
Lopini Katoa run for 1 yd to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
23.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 1 yd to the Ariz 43Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 9
OPP 43
-2
23.3%
Lopini Katoa run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 45Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+1
24.1%
Lopini Katoa run for 1 yd to the Ariz 44Similar
Q1 2:20
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
24.6%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 3:5025% → 27%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
25.1%
Michael Wiley run for 2 yds to the Ariz 11Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+4
25.4%
Michael Wiley run for 4 yds to the Ariz 15Similar
Q1 1:10
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+6
25.2%
Will Plummer pass complete to Michael Wiley for 6 yds to the Ariz 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
25.9%
Michael Wiley run for 5 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+3
26.3%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 3 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+1
26.3%
Michael Wiley run for 1 yd to the Ariz 30Similar
Q2 14:40
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+1
26.1%
Gunner Cruz run for 1 yd to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
27.2%
Michael Wiley run for 5 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+1
28.3%
Will Plummer run for 1 yd to the Ariz 37Similar
Q2 13:23
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
27.7%
Will Plummer pass incomplete to BJ CasteelSimilar
Q2 13:15
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
27.1%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 3:3873% → 78%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
26.7%
Tyler Allgeier run for no gain to the BYU 27Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+22
27.1%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 22 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
26.0%
Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
26.0%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Masen WakeSimilar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 7
OPP 48
-10
26.5%
Hall, Jaren pass complete to Pau'u, Neil for no gain to the ARIZONA48, PENALTY BYU holding (Allgeier, Tyler) 10 yards to the BYU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 17
OWN 42
+12
28.2%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 12 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q2 10:20
4TH & 5
OPP 46
+11
27.9%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Chris Jackson for 11 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
26.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 11 yds to the Ariz 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
26.2%
Neil Pau'u pass complete to Jaren Hall for 9 yds to the Ariz 15Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+15
21.7%
Tyler Allgeier run for 15 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8MISSED FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 4:1325% → 26%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
24.5%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to BJ Casteel for 6 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
25.5%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for no gain to the Ariz 31Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+26
23.8%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 26 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
26.1%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to BJ Casteel for 9 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+1
27.0%
Drake Anderson run for 1 yd to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
27.0%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Bryce Wolma for 8 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 2
OPP 25
0
27.4%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to BJ Casteel for no gain to the BYU 25Similar
Q2 6:04
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+2
26.4%
Drake Anderson run for 2 yds to the BYU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
27.5%
Gunner Cruz pass incomplete to Jalen JohnsonSimilar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+5
27.6%
Drake Anderson run for 5 yds to the BYU 18Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+4
26.9%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Drake Anderson for 4 yds to the BYU 14Similar
Q2 4:32
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+31
26.1%
Lucas Havrisik 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:0477% → 84%
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
23.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 6 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+4
22.8%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 4 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
23.1%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 4 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-1
22.5%
Lopini Katoa run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 33Similar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+67
16.1%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 67 yds for a TD, (Jaren Hall pass to Lopini Katoa for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10FG
15 plays · 65 yds · 1:3916% → 19%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
15.7%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Drake Anderson for 9 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
16.3%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to BJ Casteel for 3 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
16.2%
Cruz, Gunner pass complete to Casteel, BJ for no gain to the ARIZONA37, PENALTY ARIZONA illegal touching (Casteel, BJ) 0 yards to the ARIZONA37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
15.9%
Gunner Cruz run for 2 yds to the Ariz 39Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+9
16.0%
Gunner Cruz run for 9 yds to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
17.2%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 15 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
17.2%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Drake Anderson for 6 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+19
17.3%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 19 yds to the BYU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-8
17.3%
Gunner Cruz sacked by Keenan Pili for a loss of 8 yards to the BYU 20Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 18
OPP 20
0
17.2%
Gunner Cruz pass incomplete to Stanley Berryhill IIISimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 18
OPP 20
+10
16.0%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 10 yds to the BYU 10Similar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+28
19.2%
Lucas Havrisik 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
17.9%
Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the BYU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:1419% → 18%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
19.4%
Michael Wiley run for 12 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
20.0%
Michael Wiley run for 6 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+11
20.6%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Michael Wiley for 11 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
21.2%
Gunner Cruz pass incomplete to Boobie CurrySimilar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
20.9%
Gunner Cruz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-12
20.1%
Gunner Cruz sacked by Uriah Leiataua for a loss of 12 yards to the Ariz 43Similar
Q3 12:16
4TH & 22
OWN 43
0
18.0%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:1781% → 93%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
19.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Chris Jackson for 9 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+4
18.5%
Tyler Allgeier run for 4 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
18.2%
Tyler Allgeier run for 9 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 1
OWN 42
0
17.3%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Neil Pau'uSimilar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+2
17.7%
Jaren Hall run for 2 yds to the BYU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+39
16.8%
Jaren Hall run for 39 yds to the Ariz 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
16.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Neil Pau'u for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 18 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, Face Mask (9 yards) (Jaxen Turner) to the Ariz 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
16.0%
Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the Ariz 6Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
6.9%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 6 yds for a TD, (Justen Smith KICK) ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14PUNT
12 plays · 38 yds · 3:5210% → 9%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
10.0%
Michael Wiley run for 9 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
10.3%
Michael Wiley run for 5 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
10.3%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 13 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
10.8%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Drake Anderson for 7 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+8
11.0%
Drake Anderson run for 8 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
11.2%
Cruz, Gunner pass incomplete to Anderson, Drake, PENALTY ARIZONA illegal motion 5 yards to the BYU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+8
10.6%
Gunner Cruz run for 8 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+4
11.1%
Gunner Cruz run for 4 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 3
OPP 26
-11
10.6%
Gunner Cruz sacked by Payton Wilgar for a loss of 11 yards to the BYU 37Similar
Q3 3:32
4TH & 14
OPP 37
-5
9.3%
ARIZONA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the BYU 42Similar
Q3 3:23
4TH & 14
OPP 37
0
9.3%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15SF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0594% → 91%
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
5.7%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Dallin HolkerSimilar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 10
OWN 1
-1
9.5%
Lopini Katoa run for a loss of 1 yard for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16TD
4 plays · 46 yds · 0:4013% → 24%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
12.6%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Michael Wiley for 11 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
13.0%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to BJ Casteel for 6 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+29
24.0%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to BJ Casteel for 29 yds for a TD, (Gunner Cruz pass to BJ Casteel for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:3582% → 81%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
17.8%
BYU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the BYU 20Similar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+7
18.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 7 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
17.3%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Isaac Rex for 2 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q3 0:39
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
17.5%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Dallin HolkerSimilar
Q3 0:25
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+9
19.4%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 59 yds , Stanley Berryhill III returns for 9 yds to the Ariz 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18MISSED FG
12 plays · 53 yds · 3:2319% → 17%
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
18.9%
Drake Anderson run for 6 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+19
19.5%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 19 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
21.8%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 16 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
23.0%
Cruz, Gunner pass incomplete to Cunningham, Tayvian, PENALTY BYU pass interference 15 yards to the BYU23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARIZONA.Similar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
24.1%
Drake Anderson run for 7 yds to the BYU 16Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+1
22.7%
Drake Anderson run for 1 yd to the BYU 15Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 2
OPP 15
0
21.2%
Gunner Cruz pass incomplete to Michael WileySimilar
Q4 13:20
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+3
19.5%
Michael Wiley run for 3 yds to the BYU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
22.7%
Gunner Cruz pass incomplete to Michael WileySimilar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+3
22.8%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Bryce Wolma for 3 yds to the BYU 9Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 7
OPP 9
-17
21.2%
Gunner Cruz sacked by Tyler Batty for a loss of 17 yards to the BYU 26Similar
Q4 11:42
4TH & 24
OPP 26
+44
16.5%
Lucas Havrisik 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19FG
8 plays · 51 yds · 3:4185% → 90%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+21
14.6%
Tyler Allgeier run for 21 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
12.7%
Tyler Allgeier run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 45Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+15
12.7%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 15 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
11.9%
Lopini Katoa run for 11 yds to the Ariz 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-6
11.2%
Jaren Hall sacked by Kyon Barrs for a loss of 6 yards to the Ariz 35Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 16
OPP 35
+7
11.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Isaac Rex for 7 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+5
10.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 5 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+40
9.6%
Justen Smith 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20INT
6 plays · 45 yds · 1:1910% → 13%
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
10.4%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Michael Wiley for 25 yds to the Ariz 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
11.6%
Gunner Cruz run for 3 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+4
10.3%
Michael Wiley run for 4 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+13
10.9%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 13 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
12.6%
Gunner Cruz pass intercepted, touchback. Hayden Livingston return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21FUMBLE
9 plays · 5 yds · 2:0192% → 94%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
8.2%
Jaren Hall run for 3 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
8.2%
Tyler Allgeier run for 6 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+1
8.0%
Tyler Allgeier run for 1 yd to the BYU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
7.6%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Isaac RexSimilar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-2
7.4%
Jaren Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 28Similar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 12
OWN 28
-3
7.4%
Tyler Allgeier run for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 25Similar
Q4 3:24
4TH & 15
OWN 25
0
6.2%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 54 yds , Stanley Berryhill III returns for no gain to the Ariz 16 Stanley Berryhill III fumbled, recovered by ArizSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22FG
14 plays · 65 yds · 2:263% → 5%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
3.3%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 4 yds to the Ariz 20Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+7
3.3%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 7 yds to the Ariz 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
3.3%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Drake Anderson for 3 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+7
3.4%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 7 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
3.0%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 9 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 1
OWN 46
-1
3.2%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Drake Anderson for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 45Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+5
2.8%
Drake Anderson run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
50
+26
3.0%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Alex Lines for 26 yds to the BYU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
4.0%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Michael Wiley for 6 yds to the BYU 18Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 4
OPP 18
0
4.0%
Gunner Cruz pass incomplete to BJ CasteelSimilar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 4
OPP 18
-1
3.5%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 19Similar
Q4 0:49
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+37
5.2%
Lucas Havrisik 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:1597% → 97%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
2.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 43Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 43
-2
2.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:00
Gunner Cruz pass complete to BJ Casteel for 29 yds for a TD, (Gunner Cruz pass to BJ Casteel for Two-Point Conversion)
+10.9
TD · Q3 7:28
Jaren Hall pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 6 yds for a TD, (Justen Smith KICK) ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined
-7.6
TD · Q2 2:06
Jaren Hall pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 67 yds for a TD, (Jaren Hall pass to Lopini Katoa for Two-Point Conversion)
-6.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com