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FRES

Fresno State 24 at Oregon 31

ORE
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2021 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:12 · Tom Snee punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 123Pregame prior+16.3Home team on offense+2.1Score differential−1.0Garbage-time factor−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Blowout margin−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:07: Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 17 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK) — FRES win probability +5.6 pts (now 16%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:45: Jake Haener run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Haener pass to Juan Rodriguez for Two-Point Conversion) — FRES win probability +16.6 pts (now 34%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 13:03: Abraham Montano 22 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +6.1 pts (now 47%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 7:41: Camden Lewis 25 yd FG GOOD — ORE win probability +11.7 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:57: Anthony Brown run for 30 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +27.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 7 of 9FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 11:54FRES 4th & 22 at FRES 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:26ORE 4th & 6 at FRES 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    88.0%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:37FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 28, down 14
    Close callPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:29ORE 4th & 6 at ORE 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:38ORE 4th & 1 at ORE 30, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    88.0%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:40ORE 4th & 11 at ORE 43, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:31FRES 4th & 12 at ORE 22, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    9.6%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:11ORE 4th & 1 at FRES 14, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    85.6%−1.4
    84% to make
    Punt
    80.9%−6.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:12ORE 4th & 5 at ORE 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:53FRES 4th & 8 at ORE 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    32.3%−3.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:03FRES 4th & 3 at ORE 5, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.0%−2.0
    92% to make
    Punt
    21.3%−17.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:38ORE 4th & 3 at ORE 40, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%−2.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:41ORE 4th & 4 at FRES 7, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−4.0
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    33.3%−19.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:01FRES 4th & 8 at FRES 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−5.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:57ORE 4th & 2 at FRES 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    56.0%−5.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    47.7%−13.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:19FRES 4th & 15 at FRES 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4FRES made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 8:07ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:40ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:16ORE Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:07FRES Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:45FRES Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    25.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    25.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:57ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−1.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 2:5910% → 11%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
89.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 3 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+12
89.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 12 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
89.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
89.2%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Josh KellySimilar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 8
OWN 42
-14
89.2%
Jake Haener sacked by Bradyn Swinson for a loss of 14 yards to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q1 11:54
4TH & 22
OWN 28
0
89.1%
Carson King punt for 48 yds, downed at the Oregn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:2389% → 88%
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
89.0%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Travis DyeSimilar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
89.0%
Anthony Brown run for 4 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+9
88.8%
Anthony Brown run for 9 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
88.8%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kris Hutson for 19 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
88.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 5 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 5
OPP 39
-1
88.8%
Anthony Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
88.6%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Mycah PittmanSimilar
Q1 9:26
4TH & 6
OPP 40
+30
88.4%
Tom Snee punt for 40 yds for a touchback OREGON Penalty, Defensive Holding (-10 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3FUMBLE
1 play · -14 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
88.2%
Jake Haener sacked by Kayvon Thibodeaux for a loss of 14 yards to the FrsSt 16 Jake Haener fumbled, forced by Kayvon Thibodeaux, recovered by Oregn Mase Funa , return for 13 yds to the FrsSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4TD
3 plays · 3 yds · 1:0689% → 89%
Q1 9:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
88.6%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 1Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
88.4%
CJ Verdell run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 2Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
89.2%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5FUMBLE
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 27 Ronnie Rivers fumbled, forced by Noah Sewell, recovered by Oregn Keyon Ware-HudsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6TD
3 plays · 27 yds · 0:5089% → 91%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+19
89.2%
Anthony Brown run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 16 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (Kevin Atkins) to the FrsSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
89.2%
Anthony Brown run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 4Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
90.6%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:5510% → 10%
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
90.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 5 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 5
OWN 24
0
89.9%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 5
OWN 24
-5
90.0%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (Bula Schmidt) to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+9
90.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 9 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q1 5:37
4TH & 1
OWN 28
+44
90.0%
Carson King punt for 34 yds, downed at the OREGON 38 OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Oregn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0290% → 90%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
90.4%
CJ Verdell run for no gain to the Oregn 28Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
90.4%
CJ Verdell run for 4 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
90.4%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
Q1 4:29
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
90.2%
Tom Snee punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9FG
12 plays · 69 yds · 5:0610% → 12%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
89.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+4
89.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
90.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+12
89.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 12 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
89.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
89.7%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Josh KellySimilar
Q1 1:26
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+39
89.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 39 yds to the Oregn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
89.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 12 yds to the Oregn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
89.1%
Jordan Mims run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 10Similar
Q1 0:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
89.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 2 yds to the Oregn 8Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-8
89.2%
Josh Kelly run for a loss of 8 yards to the Oregn 16Similar
Q2 14:16
4TH & 0
OPP 16
+33
88.1%
Abraham Montano 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10PUNT
12 plays · 28 yds · 4:2789% → 88%
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
88.5%
Travis Dye run for 5 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+3
88.5%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+1
88.8%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the Oregn 30Similar
Q2 12:38
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+2
88.5%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
88.9%
Anthony Brown run for 6 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+3
89.3%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q2 11:13
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+3
89.0%
Anthony Brown run for 3 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
89.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Spencer Webb for 5 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 5
OWN 49
0
89.5%
Anthony Brown run for no gain to the Oregn 49 Anthony Brown fumbled, recovered by OregnSimilar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 11
OWN 43
0
88.9%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
Q2 9:40
4TH & 11
OWN 43
0
88.4%
Tom Snee punt for 47 yds, downed at the FrsSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11FG
16 plays · 68 yds · 5:5912% → 13%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
88.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 6
OWN 14
0
88.4%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Juan RodriguezSimilar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+15
88.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 15 yds to the FrsSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
88.1%
Jake Haener run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+8
87.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Tre Watson for 8 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
87.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 15 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
87.4%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Josh KellySimilar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+8
87.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 8 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 2
OPP 34
-5
87.2%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 39Similar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+8
87.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 8 yds to the Oregn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
86.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 11 yds to the Oregn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
86.4%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (Matt Smith) to the Oregn 25Similar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 15
OPP 25
+5
87.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Raymond Pauwels Jr. for 5 yds to the Oregn 20Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-2
87.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 22 TEAM fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Jake HaenerSimilar
Q2 3:36
3RD & 12
OPP 22
0
88.1%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen CropperSimilar
Q2 3:31
4TH & 12
OPP 22
+39
87.4%
Abraham Montano 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 2:0587% → 93%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
87.0%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Spencer Webb for 5 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+3
87.0%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q2 2:29
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+9
87.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 9 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+26
88.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 26 yds to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
88.6%
Anthony Brown sacked by Kevin Atkins for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+32
92.8%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 32 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 1:039% → 16%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 3 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
91.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 7 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
91.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ty Jones for 18 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-7
90.3%
Jake Haener sacked by Noah Sewell for a loss of 7 yards to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 17
OWN 46
+26
91.7%
Jake Haener run for 11 yds to the OREGON 43 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (Justin Flowe) to the Oregn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
89.7%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Ty JonesSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
89.9%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen CropperSimilar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+11
90.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 11 yds to the Oregn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
89.6%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Keric WheatfallSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
84.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 17 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
89.2%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Spencer WebbSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15DOWNS
11 plays · 59 yds · 3:3988% → 87%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+22
87.8%
Travis Dye run for 7 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Kevin Atkins) to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
88.7%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kris Hutson for 3 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+12
88.7%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 12 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
88.8%
Travis Dye run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+4
88.9%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+5
88.3%
Travis Dye run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
88.7%
Anthony Brown run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+1
88.7%
Anthony Brown run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+2
88.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to CJ Verdell for 2 yds to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q3 11:11
4TH & 1
OPP 14
-1
87.4%
CJ Verdell run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 4:1914% → 34%
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
86.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 6 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+3
86.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+5
86.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
86.0%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+7
85.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ty Jones for 7 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+45
85.0%
Jordan Mims run for 45 yds to the Oregn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
82.5%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+9
82.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 9 yds to the Oregn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
82.2%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Steve Stephens IV) to the Oregn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
65.6%
Jake Haener run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Haener pass to Juan Rodriguez for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:1773% → 73%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
73.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 13 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
75.3%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Moliki MatavaoSimilar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
74.4%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Moliki MatavaoSimilar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+5
72.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Dye for 5 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q3 5:12
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
72.9%
Tom Snee punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 40 yds · 4:1030% → 34%
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
69.6%
Jake Haener run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+15
68.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 15 yds to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+21
67.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 21 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
63.6%
Jalen Cropper run for 8 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 2
OPP 40
-3
62.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for a loss of 3 yards Jalen Cropper fumbled, forced by Mykael Wright, recovered by FrsSt Jake HaenerSimilar
Q3 1:56
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+2
63.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q3 1:39
4TH & 3
OPP 41
-5
65.2%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 46Similar
Q3 0:53
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
66.3%
Carson King punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19FUMBLE
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:5470% → 71%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
69.7%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Mycah PittmanSimilar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 5
-2
69.2%
Anthony Brown sacked by Tyson Maeva for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 3Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 12
OWN 3
+15
67.6%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Bralyn Lux) to the Oregn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+17
69.8%
Travis Dye run for 17 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-8
70.6%
Anthony Brown sacked by Arron Mosby for a loss of 8 yards to the Oregn 27 Anthony Brown fumbled, forced by Arron Mosby, recovered by FrsSt Kevin Atkins , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20FG
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:4341% → 47%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+16
59.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 4 yds to the Oregn 23 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Mase Funa) to the Oregn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
59.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the Oregn 8Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+3
58.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the Oregn 5Similar
Q4 13:06
3RD & 3
OPP 5
0
59.5%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Juan RodriguezSimilar
Q4 13:03
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+22
53.3%
Abraham Montano 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:1258% → 52%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
58.2%
CJ Verdell run for 9 yds to the Oregn 19Similar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+14
57.2%
CJ Verdell run for 14 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
57.0%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-3
59.0%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Spencer Webb for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 33Similar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+7
53.7%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 7 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q4 10:38
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
51.8%
Tom Snee punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22FUMBLE
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:1752% → 54%
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+15
48.3%
OREGON Penalty, Roughing Passer (Verone McKinley III) to the FrsSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
46.0%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen CropperSimilar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+13
46.3%
Jake Haener run for 13 yds to the FrsSt 32 Jake Haener fumbled, forced by Justin Flowe, recovered by Oregn Jordan HappleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 23FG
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:2860% → 68%
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
60.2%
CJ Verdell run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+3
60.3%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+11
57.0%
CJ Verdell run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
59.4%
CJ Verdell run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
59.2%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Mycah PittmanSimilar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+1
56.3%
Anthony Brown run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 7Similar
Q4 7:41
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+25
68.0%
Camden Lewis 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3340% → 40%
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
59.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
57.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
58.6%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen CropperSimilar
Q4 6:01
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+17
60.4%
Carson King punt for 53 yds , Mycah Pittman returns for 17 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 25TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:5566% → 95%
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-7
65.6%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 40 OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu) to the Oregn 30Similar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 17
OWN 30
+32
63.5%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 32 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
68.9%
CJ Verdell run for no gain to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
68.3%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q4 3:39
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+6
67.1%
Travis Dye run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q4 2:57
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+30
94.6%
Anthony Brown run for 30 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 26DOWNS
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:3210% → 8%
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
90.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 7 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
88.4%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Keric WheatfallSimilar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-7
89.4%
Jake Haener sacked by Brandon Dorlus for a loss of 7 yards to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q4 2:25
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-5
92.3%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (Dontae Bull) to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+13
92.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 13 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 27END OF GAME
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:0196% → 97%
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
96.2%
Anthony Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+6
96.1%
CJ Verdell run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+6
97.0%
CJ Verdell run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
97.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 15
OPP 27
-3
97.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:57
Anthony Brown run for 30 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
+27.6
TD · Q3 6:45
Jake Haener run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Haener pass to Juan Rodriguez for Two-Point Conversion)
-16.6
FG · Q4 7:41
Camden Lewis 25 yd FG GOOD
+11.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com