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NEV

Nevada 22 at California 17

CAL
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2021 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDFGFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:06 · Devonte Lee run for 4 yds to the Cal 24 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 98Home team on offense−8.0Pregame prior+4.7Garbage-time factor−2.3Score differential−3.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:03: Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 2 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK) — CAL win probability +7.1 pts (now 73%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:15: Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 43 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +9.0 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 12:00: Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 16 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — NEV win probability +21.8 pts (now 59%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 12:59: Dario Longhetto 24 yd FG GOOD — NEV win probability +5.3 pts (now 76%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 7:11: Dario Longhetto 40 yd FG GOOD — NEV win probability +5.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 6 of 9NEV made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 4:11NEV 4th & 4 at NEV 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  2. Q2 8:12CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 25, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%
    average punt
  3. Q2 4:11CAL 4th & 6 at CAL 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:57NEV 4th & 11 at NEV 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:46CAL 4th & 2 at CAL 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:02NEV 4th & 4 at CAL 18, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.4%−0.3
    79% to make
    Punt
    32.7%−6.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:50NEV 4th & 11 at CAL 26, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    36.3%−2.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:06CAL 4th & 3 at CAL 39, down 5
    Close callPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:06NEV 4th & 1 at CAL 28, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    53.8%−3.8
    60% to make
    Punt
    45.2%−12.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:26NEV 4th & 18 at CAL 32, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−3.7
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.3%
    51% to make
    Punt
    54.3%−2.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:17CAL 4th & 3 at CAL 44, down 8
    Close callPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:09NEV 4th & 5 at CAL 30, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.5%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    70.8%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:59CAL 4th & 3 at NEV 6, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.2%−1.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    15.4%−7.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:11CAL 4th & 21 at NEV 22, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−1.6
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−4.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:36NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 43, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:55NEV 4th & 7 at CAL 37, up 8
    Close callPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    94.1%−0.3
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%−0.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:47CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 25, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.0%−0.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:47CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 25, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.0%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NEV made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 5:47CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:03CAL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:15NEV Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:00NEV Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    56.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    56.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1TD
16 plays · 63 yds · 9:0562% → 66%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
61.5%
Damien Moore run for 2 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+5
61.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 5 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+13
61.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 13 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
61.5%
Damien Moore run for 8 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+5
61.5%
Damien Moore run for 5 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
61.5%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
61.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Damien Moore for 9 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+6
61.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 6 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
61.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brooks for 4 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+4
61.5%
Damien Moore run for 4 yds to the Nevad 17Similar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+2
61.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 2 yds to the Nevad 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
61.5%
Damien Moore run for 9 yds to the Nevad 6Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+3
61.5%
Damien Moore run for 3 yds to the Nevad 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
61.5%
Chase Garbers run for 2 yds to the Nevad 1Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
65.6%
Damien Moore run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3636% → 35%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
64.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 6 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
64.2%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the Nevad 31Similar
Q1 5:47
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
64.5%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q1 4:11
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
65.4%
Julian Diaz punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 4:0865% → 73%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
65.3%
Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+20
65.3%
Christopher Brooks run for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
50
+3
66.1%
Christopher Brooks run for 3 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+12
66.1%
Damien Moore run for 12 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
66.3%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Damien MooreSimilar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
66.2%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+28
65.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 28 yds to the Nevad 7 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Berdale Robins) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
66.2%
Damien Moore run for 5 yds to the Nevad 2Similar
Q1 0:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
73.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 2 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 2:3871% → 71%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
71.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 7 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
71.7%
Brooks,Christopher rush for 0 yards to the Cal32 (Peterson,Dom) PENALTY Cal Holding (Cindric,Matthew) 11 yard from Cal32 to Cal21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+9
71.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 9 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
70.7%
Chase Garbers sacked by Daniel Grzesiak for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 25Similar
Q2 8:12
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
70.6%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Romeo Doubs at the Nevad 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:5729% → 39%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
71.2%
Toa Taua run for 12 yds to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
70.6%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+7
70.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 7 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+6
70.3%
Devonte Lee run for 6 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
61.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 43 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:0465% → 63%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
64.5%
Damien Moore run for 1 yd to the Cal 24Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
64.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Damien Moore for no gain to the Cal 24Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+5
63.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 5 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q2 4:11
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
62.9%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:1436% → 34%
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
64.0%
Carson Strong run for 4 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+7
63.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 7 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
63.4%
Devonte Lee run for no gain to the Nevad 33Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+1
63.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 1 yd to the Nevad 32Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 11
OWN 32
0
65.0%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Toa TauaSimilar
Q2 1:57
4TH & 11
OWN 32
0
65.6%
Julian Diaz punt for 56 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1165% → 65%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
65.3%
run for 2 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+6
65.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 6 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 2
OWN 41
0
65.8%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jake TongesSimilar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
64.9%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9FG
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:4440% → 41%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
60.1%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
60.4%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+17
61.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 17 yds to the Cal 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
58.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 6 yds to the Cal 18Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 4
OPP 18
0
60.5%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Devonte LeeSimilar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 4
OPP 18
0
61.3%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole TurnerSimilar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+35
59.1%
Brandon Talton 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 4:1038% → 39%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
61.6%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 16
+9
61.9%
Toa Taua run for 9 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+16
61.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 16 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
60.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 7 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+12
60.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 12 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
59.9%
Strong,Carson pass incomplete to Cooks,Elijah PENALTY Cal Pass Interference (Anusiem,Chigozie) 15 yards from Cal40 to Cal25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
59.1%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Cal 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-3
59.1%
Carson Strong sacked by Evan Tattersall for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 26
0
60.1%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole TurnerSimilar
Q2 10:50
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+44
61.5%
Brandon Talton 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5237% → 59%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
62.8%
Toa Taua run for 5 yds to the Nevad 20Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
63.3%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+17
64.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 17 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
61.9%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
62.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 1 yd to the Nevad 38Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+46
62.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 46 yds to the Cal 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
40.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 16 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:5047% → 46%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
46.9%
Garbers,Chase pass incomplete PENALTY NEV Roughing The Passer (Nichols,Tristan) 15 yards from Cal17 to Cal32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
47.5%
Chase Garbers run for 5 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 5
OWN 37
-5
49.2%
PENALTY Cal False Start (Daltoso,Valentino) 5 yards from Cal37 to Cal32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
47.2%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Trevon ClarkSimilar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+7
45.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Damien Moore for 7 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q3 10:06
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
45.6%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13FG
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:4058% → 64%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+20
41.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 20 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
41.2%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Cal 36Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 9
OPP 36
0
41.2%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole TurnerSimilar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+8
41.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 8 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q3 10:06
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+4
43.0%
Devonte Lee run for 4 yds to the Cal 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
39.7%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-8
40.2%
Carson Strong sacked by Luc Bequette for a loss of 8 yards to the Cal 32Similar
Q3 6:26
4TH & 18
OPP 32
+49
36.0%
Brandon Talton 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:0937% → 35%
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
37.2%
Chase Garbers run for 4 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
37.8%
Damien Moore run for 4 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
38.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 4 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
38.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Monroe Young for 7 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 3
OWN 44
0
40.6%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
39.8%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q3 4:17
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
34.6%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Bentlee Sanders at the Nevad 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15FG
7 plays · 49 yds · 3:0867% → 74%
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
33.0%
Devonte Lee run for 4 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+9
32.3%
Toa Taua run for 9 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+31
32.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Evan Tattersall) to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
29.4%
Devonte Lee run for no gain to the Cal 35Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
29.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 5 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q3 4:17
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
30.1%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Toa TauaSimilar
Q3 1:09
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+47
25.7%
Brandon Talton 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16FG
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:1027% → 24%
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
26.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 13 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
27.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 4 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+24
27.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 24 yds to the Nevad 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
31.4%
Marcel Dancy run for 8 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+8
31.3%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 8 yds to the Nevad 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
31.3%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Keleki LatuSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+7
31.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 7 yds to the Nevad 6Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 6
0
29.4%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q4 12:59
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+24
24.1%
Dario Longhetto 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17INT
5 plays · 47 yds · 1:0880% → 84%
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+42
19.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 42 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
18.1%
Toa Taua run for 5 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
17.4%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole TurnerSimilar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 5
OPP 32
0
16.1%
Carson Strong pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18FG
12 plays · 77 yds · 4:3420% → 19%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
19.6%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Monroe YoungSimilar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+4
19.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 4 yds to the Cal 5Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 5
OWN 6
+15
18.7%
Garbers,Chase pass incomplete to Hunter,Jeremiah PENALTY NEV Pass Interference (King,AJ) 15 yards from Cal06 to Cal21, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
19.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 5 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+4
20.4%
Damien Moore run for 4 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+6
20.1%
Damien Moore run for 6 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+38
20.9%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 38 yds to the Nevad 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
26.0%
Damien Moore run for 15 yds to the Nevad 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
25.9%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+2
25.9%
Chase Garbers run for 2 yds to the Nevad 9Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 8
OPP 9
-13
24.2%
Chase Garbers sacked by Sam Hammond for a loss of 13 yards to the Nevad 22Similar
Q4 7:11
4TH & 21
OPP 22
+40
18.9%
Dario Longhetto 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:3586% → 89%
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
13.6%
Devonte Lee run for 8 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+10
13.1%
Devonte Lee run for 10 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
12.2%
Devonte Lee run for 1 yd to the Nevad 41Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+2
12.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 2 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
12.5%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Justin LockhartSimilar
Q4 4:36
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
11.5%
Julian Diaz punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
14.4%
Chase Garbers pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21PUNT
12 plays · 13 yds · 2:3491% → 96%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
50
+4
8.8%
Devonte Lee run for 4 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+1
8.9%
Devonte Lee run for 1 yd to the Cal 47Similar
Q4 3:39
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+7
8.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 7 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
7.6%
Lee,Devonte rush for 0 yards to the Cal40 (Iosefa,Mo) PENALTY NEV Holding (Frost,Aaron) 10 yards from Cal40 to Cal50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 20
50
+6
7.8%
Toa Taua run for 6 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 14
OPP 44
0
5.7%
Devonte Lee run for no gain to the Cal 44Similar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 14
OPP 44
+12
6.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 12 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q4 2:52
4TH & 2
OPP 32
-5
6.6%
PENALTY NEV False Start (Davis,Gray) 5 yards from Cal32 to Cal37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
4.1%
Julian Diaz punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:085% → 4%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
5.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 9 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 1
OWN 29
-10
5.7%
Garbers,Chase pass complete to Tonges,Jake for 0 yards to the Cal29 PENALTY Cal Holding (Craig,Will) 10 yards from Cal29 to Cal19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+3
4.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 3 yds to the Cal 22Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+3
4.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 3 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q4 0:47
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
3.6%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Marcel DancySimilar
Q4 0:47
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
3.6%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Marcel DancySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:4797% → 97%
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-3
3.0%
run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 28Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 28
-2
2.6%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:00
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 16 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-21.8
TD · Q2 6:15
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 43 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)
-9
TD · Q1 0:03
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 2 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)
+7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com