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Win probability · OHIO
modelOHIO aheadDUQ aheadconfidence bandkey playOHIO scoreDUQ score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:41 · Joey Corado punt for 45 yds, downed at the OHIO 43 DUQUESNE Penalty, Illegal Formation (A.J. Ackerman) to the Ohio 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- SAFETY · Q1 0:00: Team Safety — DUQ win probability +0.7 pts (now 6%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:41: Darius Perrantes 1 Yd Run (Brian Bruzdewicz Kick) — DUQ win probability +11.3 pts (now 28%) (top driver: DUQ has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:55: Joey Isabella 3 Yd pass from Darius Perrantes (Brian Bruzdewicz Kick) — DUQ win probability +20.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: DUQ has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:45: Kurtis Rourke 2 Yd Run (Ben Johnson Kick) — OHIO win probability +15.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
- FG · Q4 2:46: Brian Bruzdewicz 27 Yd Field Goal — DUQ win probability +12.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: DUQ has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OHIO made the numbers' call on 4 of 5DUQ made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 10:56DUQ 4th & 6 at OHIO 6, down 12Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.8% before the snapGo for it4.7%−<0.131% to convertField goalTheir call4.7%91% to makePunt4.3%−0.5average punt
- Q1 6:06DUQ 4th & 4 at OHIO 33, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.6%48% to convertField goal5.5%−0.149% to makePunt5.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 4:19DUQ 4th & 4 at OHIO 20, down 10Close callKicked a field goal · 5.9% before the snapGo for it5.9%47% to convertField goalTheir call5.9%−<0.175% to makePunt5.4%−0.5average punt
- Q1 1:56OHIO 4th & 10 at OHIO 27, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snapGo for it93.5%−0.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.6%average punt
- Q1 0:01DUQ 4th & 4 at midfield, down 7Close callPunted · 6.8% before the snapGo for it6.8%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 12:41DUQ 4th & 29 at DUQ 12, down 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snapGo for it7.2%−0.76% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.9%average punt
- Q2 9:06OHIO 4th & 13 at DUQ 13, up 5Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.1% before the snapGo for it90.6%−0.417% to convertField goalTheir call91.0%85% to makePunt89.4%−1.6average punt
- Q2 7:17DUQ 4th & 13 at DUQ 17, down 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snapGo for it8.3%−0.719% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.0%average punt
- Q2 6:08OHIO 4th & 2 at midfield, up 5Close callPunted · 90.9% before the snapGo for it90.9%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.6%−0.3average punt
- Q2 0:49DUQ 4th & 3 at OHIO 3, down 5Close callKicked a field goal · 13.0% before the snapGo for it12.9%44% to convertField goalTheir call12.6%−0.493% to makePunt9.3%−3.7average punt
- Q3 9:41DUQ 4th & 1 at OHIO 1, down 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call17.3%59% to convertField goal15.0%−2.394% to makePunt8.8%−8.5average punt
- Q3 6:11OHIO 4th & 7 at OHIO 40, down 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snapGo for it66.1%−0.837% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.9%average punt
- Q4 2:46DUQ 4th & 7 at OHIO 9, up 5Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.1% before the snapGo for it80.4%−1.030% to convertField goalTheir call81.3%89% to makePunt67.2%−14.1average punt
- Q4 2:43OHIO 4th & 4 at OHIO 39, down 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.8%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt8.2%−2.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1DUQ made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q3 9:41DUQ Touchdown, up 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call26.8%97% to makeGo for two26.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:55DUQ Touchdown, up 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.3%97% to makeGo for two65.1%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 10:45OHIO Touchdown, down 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call41.1%97% to makeGo for two40.6%−0.545% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartDUQDrive 1FG8 plays · 62 yds · 3:443% → 4%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
96.9%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Wykeen Gill for 12 yds to the Ohio 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+30
96.9%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Cyrus Holder for 30 yds to the Ohio 7 for a 1ST down pass incomplete for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
96.9%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Wykeen Gill for a loss of 5 yards to the Ohio 11Similar
Q1 14:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+5
96.9%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Cyrus Holder for 5 yds to the Ohio 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 2TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:3197% → 97%
DUQDrive 3FG16 plays · 56 yds · 6:024% → 5%
Q1 10:21
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+5
96.3%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Joey Isabella for 5 yds to the Duqsn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
3RD & 10
50
+11
96.3%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Billy Lucas for 11 yds to the Ohio 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-5
96.3%
PERRANTES, Darius pass to the right complete for 4 yards to HENDERSON, Davie caught at the OHI35 and advanced to the OHI35 (EVANS, Will), out of bounds. PENALTY DUQ Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on DORUNDO, Michael enforced 5 yards from the OHI39 to the OHI44 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:06
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+7
95.8%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Wykeen Gill for 7 yds to the Ohio 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 4PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 2:1496% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 1:555% → 5%
Q1 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
95.0%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Joey Isabella for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 6SF1 play · 0 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 7PUNT5 plays · -19 yds · 2:126% → 6%
Q2 14:53
3RD & 6
OWN 35
-10
94.1%
PERRANTES, Darius pass to the left complete for 8 yards to HOLDER, Cyrus caught at the DUQ35 and advanced to the DUQ43 (BLAUSER, Cannon;HOUSTON, Bryce). PENALTY DUQ Holding on LUMIA, Vincent enforced 10 yards from the DUQ35 to the DUQ25 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 16
OWN 25
0
94.3%
Darius Perrantes sacked by Will Evans and Kai Caesar for 0 yards to the Duqsn 12Similar
Q2 12:41
4TH & 29
OWN 12
+40
93.8%
Joey Corado punt for 45 yds, downed at the OHIO 43 DUQUESNE Penalty, Illegal Formation (A.J. Ackerman) to the Ohio 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 8MISSED FG9 plays · 39 yds · 3:3594% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:497% → 7%
Q2 9:06
3RD & 16
OWN 14
+3
92.9%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Garrett Owens for 3 yds to the Duqsn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 10PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0993% → 92%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 11FG12 plays · 93 yds · 5:198% → 13%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+26
91.9%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Davie Henderson for 26 yds to the Duqsn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
91.6%
PERRANTES, Darius pass to the right incomplete intended for GILL, Wykeen thrown to the DUQ27. PENALTY OHI Personal Foul on DAXON, Denzel enforced 15 yards from the DUQ30 to the DUQ45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
90.4%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Joey Isabella for 8 yds to the Ohio 16Similar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
90.4%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Wykeen Gill for 6 yds to the Ohio 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 12END OF HALF5 plays · 19 yds · 0:4489% → 90%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
89.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ty Walton for 15 yds to the Ohio 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
90.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ty Walton for 3 yds to the Duqsn 48Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-10
90.1%
ROURKE, Kurtis pass to the right complete for 15 yards to LUEHRMAN, Ryan caught at the DUQ33 and advanced to the DUQ33, out of bounds. PENALTY OHI Holding on AMBURGEY, Jay enforced 10 yards from the DUQ48 to the OHI42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 17
OWN 42
+11
89.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ryan Luehrman for 11 yds to the Duqsn 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 13DOWNS12 plays · 75 yds · 5:1312% → 28%
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
88.3%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Davie Henderson for 17 yds to the Duqsn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+10
87.4%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Joey Isabella for 10 yds to the Ohio 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
86.8%
PERRANTES, Darius pass to the left incomplete intended for ISABELLA, Joey thrown to the OHI23. PENALTY OHI Pass Interference on ELAD, Jett enforced 15 yards from the OHI45 to the OHI30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+15
86.1%
PERRANTES, Darius pass to the right incomplete intended for HOLDER, Cyrus broken up by EVANS, Will at the OHI0. PENALTY OHI Pass Interference on GREGORY, John enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards from the OHI9 to the OHI9 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
86.1%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Garrett Owens for no gain to the Ohio 9Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
86.1%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Joey Isabella for 5 yds to the Ohio 4Similar
Q3 9:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
83.1%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Joey Isabella for 3 yds to the Ohio 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 14PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 3:3075% → 69%
Q3 9:41
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
74.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 8 yds to the Ohio 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-10
76.6%
ROURKE, Kurtis pass to the left complete for 47 yards to BUCKNER, Jerome caught at the DUQ41 and advanced to the DUQ12; QB hurried by BARRETT, Connor (LOWERY, Tim), out of bounds. PENALTY OHI Holding on AMBURGEY, Jay enforced 10 yards from the OHI41 to the OHI31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 15TD13 plays · 68 yds · 6:1633% → 72%
Q3 4:54
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+13
62.6%
PERRANTES, Darius pass to the right incomplete intended for HOLDER, Cyrus thrown to the OHI35. PENALTY OHI Pass Interference on PARODIE, Roman enforced at the spot of the foul for 13 yards from the OHI39 to the OHI39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+12
61.9%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Garrett Owens for 12 yds to the Ohio 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+5
60.3%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Mahlik Strozier for 5 yds to the Ohio 14Similar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+4
61.9%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Cyrus Holder for 4 yds to the Ohio 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
28.3%
Joey Isabella 3 Yd pass from Darius Perrantes (Brian Bruzdewicz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 16TD10 plays · 71 yds · 4:0539% → 60%
Q4 14:50
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+6
39.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ty Walton for 6 yds to the Ohio 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
43.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ty Walton for 5 yds to the Duqsn 27Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+12
41.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ty Walton for 12 yds to the Duqsn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 17FG20 plays · 66 yds · 7:5956% → 91%
Q4 10:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
44.1%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Joey Isabella for 5 yds to the Duqsn 32Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
44.2%
PERRANTES, Darius pass to the left incomplete intended for HENDERSON, Davie broken up by GREGORY, John at the DUQ35. PENALTY OHI Pass Interference on GREGORY, John enforced at the spot of the foul for 3 yards from the DUQ35 to the DUQ35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+5
41.9%
PERRANTES, Darius pass to the left incomplete intended for HOLDER, Cyrus broken up by KEMENI, Pierre at the OHI35. PENALTY OHI Offsides on CAESAR, Kaieem enforced 5 yards from the DUQ41 to the DUQ46 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-5
42.9%
DUQUESNE Penalty, Delay Of Game (Davie Henderson) to the Duqsn 41Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 15
OWN 41
+16
44.7%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Cyrus Holder for 16 yds to the Ohio 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
19.4%
GILL, Wykeen pass to the left incomplete intended for ISABELLA, Joey broken up by ELAD, Jett at the OHI0. PENALTY OHI Roughing the Passer on HOUSTON, Bryce enforced half the distance from the goal, 10 yards from the OHI23 to the OHI13 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 18INT13 plays · 56 yds · 2:3014% → 13%
Q4 2:43
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
13.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 6 yds to the Ohio 39Similar
Q4 2:43
4TH & 4
OWN 39
+14
12.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ryan Luehrman for 14 yds to the Duqsn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
19.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Chase Cokley for 3 yds to the Duqsn 27Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+11
20.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Chase Cokley for 11 yds to the Duqsn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+11
20.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to O'Shaan Allison for 11 yds to the Duqsn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
20.9%
QB Keeper ROURKE, Kurtis rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the DUQ3 (PROCTOR, Nathan). PENALTY Before the snap, DUQ Illegal Substitution enforced half the distance from the goal, 2 yards from the DUQ5 to the DUQ3. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
12.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass intercepted for a 1ST down return for no gain to the Duqsn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:55
Joey Isabella 3 Yd pass from Darius Perrantes (Brian Bruzdewicz Kick)
-20.4
TD · Q4 10:45
Kurtis Rourke 2 Yd Run (Ben Johnson Kick)
+15.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-12.9