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APP

App State 45 at Troy 7

TROY
2021 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2021 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:12 · Luke Magliozzi punt for 49 yds , Malik Williams returns for 27 yds to the AppSt 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 48Home team on offense+1.4Pregame prior−18.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:15: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 37 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK) — TROY win probability +2.7 pts (now 31%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:21: Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 21 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +14.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:14: Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 6 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +8.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:00: Chase Brice pass complete to Eli Wilson for 10 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +10.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:08: Nate Noel run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +8.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 6 of 8APP made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 13:28APP 4th & 2 at TROY 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    71.4%−0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    71.0%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:36APP 4th & 7 at TROY 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    67.9%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:04APP 4th & 8 at TROY 13, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    60.9%−2.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:11TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:12TROY 4th & 16 at TROY 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−1.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:17APP 4th & 4 at TROY 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    59.1%−1.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    59.1%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:04TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 46, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:23APP 4th & 8 at APP 37, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:21TROY 4th & 16 at TROY 15, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−2.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:05TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 45, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.3%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:06TROY 4th & 15 at TROY 16, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:13APP 4th & 1 at TROY 2, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.3%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    96.7%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    95.1%−2.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:52TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 30, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:52APP 4th & 2 at TROY 24, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:52APP 4th & 1 at TROY 13, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.2%−0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:48TROY 4th & 19 at TROY 16, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1APP made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 6:15TROY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:21APP Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:14APP Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:00APP Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:08APP Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:13APP Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:06APP Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1FUMBLE
8 plays · 63 yds · 1:3225% → 26%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
25.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
25.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 12 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
25.0%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the Troy 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+10
25.0%
WATSON, Gunnar pass to the right incomplete intended for BARBER, Jabre thrown to the TRO47. PENALTY APP Holding on JONES, Steven enforced 10 yards from the TRO37 to the TRO47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
25.0%
VIDAL, Kimani rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the TRO50 (JACKSON, D'Marco;EARLE, Jordon). PENALTY APP Offsides on DINGLE-PRINCE, DeAndre enforced 5 yards from the TRO47 to the APP48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 48
0
25.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+36
25.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 36 yds to the AppSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2FG
13 plays · 81 yds · 5:5274% → 72%
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+22
25.8%
Nate Noel run for 22 yds to the AppSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+35
25.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 35 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
25.6%
Nate Noel run for 12 yds to the Troy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
25.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 2 yds to the Troy 17Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
25.6%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+6
25.6%
Nate Noel run for 6 yds to the Troy 11Similar
Q1 13:28
4TH & 2
OPP 11
+3
25.7%
Camerun Peoples run for 3 yds to the Troy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
25.6%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
27.2%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Troy 15Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+3
27.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 3 yds to the Troy 12Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+5
27.4%
Camerun Peoples run for 5 yds to the Troy 7Similar
Q1 7:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
27.8%
Chandler Staton 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:2128% → 31%
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
27.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 26 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
28.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 10 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
28.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the AppSt 37Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+37
31.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 37 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4MISSED FG
11 plays · 25 yds · 6:1171% → 67%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
29.5%
Chase Brice run for 4 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+3
29.1%
Daetrich Harrington run for 3 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+6
29.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 6 yds to the Troy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
29.1%
Daetrich Harrington run for 3 yds to the Troy 22Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+2
29.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Nate Noel for 2 yds to the Troy 20Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+5
29.5%
TROY Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the Troy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
29.1%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the Troy 11Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 6
OPP 11
-5
29.1%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, False Start (Corey Sutton) to the Troy 16Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+6
29.3%
Chase Brice run for 6 yds to the Troy 10Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 5
OPP 10
-3
29.5%
Nate Noel run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 13Similar
Q1 0:04
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+30
33.4%
Chandler Staton 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4934% → 34%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
34.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 19Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+7
34.0%
B.J. Smith run for 7 yds to the Troy 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
33.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
33.6%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 44 yds , Thomas Hennigan returns for no gain to the AppSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 2:2066% → 65%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
34.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 8 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+4
33.3%
Camerun Peoples run for 4 yds to the AppSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
33.3%
Camerun Peoples run for no gain to the AppSt 42Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
35.1%
Chase Brice pass intercepted return for no gain to the Troy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:3937% → 36%
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
37.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-4
37.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to B.J. Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 35Similar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 14
OWN 35
-2
35.5%
B.J. Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 33Similar
Q2 10:12
4TH & 16
OWN 33
+27
36.0%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 49 yds , Malik Williams returns for 27 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8DOWNS
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:5565% → 63%
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
35.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 10 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
35.0%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+4
35.1%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
35.2%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:17
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
37.0%
Chase Brice pass intercepted return for no gain to the Troy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:1340% → 42%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
39.8%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 36Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+10
39.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 10 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
43.3%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the Troy 46Similar
Q2 6:04
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
42.4%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 3:4160% → 56%
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
40.2%
Camerun Peoples run for 3 yds to the AppSt 25Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+3
40.0%
Camerun Peoples run for 3 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q2 6:04
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+7
40.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 7 yds to the AppSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
39.4%
Chase Brice run for 4 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-5
38.2%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 34Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+1
40.1%
Daetrich Harrington run for 1 yd to the AppSt 35Similar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+2
43.5%
Daetrich Harrington run for 2 yds to the AppSt 37Similar
Q2 2:23
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
44.4%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:0246% → 44%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
45.7%
Jamontez Woods run for 3 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
45.6%
Gunnar Watson sacked by T.D. Roof for 0 yards to the Troy 15Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 16
OWN 15
0
44.8%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the Troy 15Similar
Q2 1:21
4TH & 16
OWN 15
+45
44.0%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 45 yds , Malik Williams returns for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 1:0053% → 71%
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+24
47.0%
Nate Noel run for 24 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
43.7%
Nate Noel run for 6 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+6
42.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 6 yds to the Troy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
43.8%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the Troy 24Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+3
43.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Eli Wilson for 3 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+21
29.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 21 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 2:4668% → 79%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
32.4%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+42
31.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 42 yds to the Troy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
30.0%
Nate Noel run for 7 yds to the Troy 13Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+4
30.0%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the Troy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
30.0%
Camerun Peoples run for 3 yds to the Troy 6Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
21.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 6 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.7%
Gunnar Watson pass intercepted return for no gain to the Troy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16TD
1 play · 10 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q3 12:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
12.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Eli Wilson for 10 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:5515% → 15%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
14.7%
VIDAL, Kimani rush up the middle for a loss of 5 yards to the TRO20 (HAMPTON, Nick;ROOF, T.D.). PENALTY APP Offsides on HUFF, Ryan enforced 5 yards from the TRO25 to the TRO30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+2
15.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 2 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
15.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
15.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 6 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
15.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
15.9%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the Troy 45Similar
Q3 9:05
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
14.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18TD
8 plays · 45 yds · 3:5788% → 97%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
11.7%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
11.7%
Daetrich Harrington run for 2 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+14
11.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 14 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
11.3%
Daetrich Harrington run for 2 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+10
11.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 10 yds to the Troy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
11.3%
Nate Noel run for 6 yds to the Troy 11Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+6
11.3%
Chase Brice run for 6 yds to the Troy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
3.2%
Nate Noel run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:024% → 4%
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
4.4%
B.J. Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 16Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 15
OWN 16
0
4.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 15
OWN 16
0
4.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:06
4TH & 15
OWN 16
0
4.0%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Malik Williams at the AppSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20TD
12 plays · 58 yds · 4:5397% → 99%
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
3.1%
Camerun Peoples run for 3 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
3.1%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+13
3.1%
Camerun Peoples run for 13 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
3.0%
PEOPLES, Camerun rush to the left for a loss of 1 yard to the TRO43 (JIBUNOR, Richard). PENALTY APP Holding on DALEY, Damion enforced 10 yards from the TRO42 to the APP48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 20
OWN 48
+15
3.0%
BRICE, Chase pass to the left incomplete intended for HORN, Christan thrown to the TRO9. PENALTY TRO Pass Interference on SLOCUM, Craig enforced 15 yards to the TRO37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-15
3.0%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Block below the waist enforced (-15 Yards) to the Troy 49Similar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 22
OPP 49
+27
3.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Christian Wells for 27 yds to the Troy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
2.9%
TROY Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Craig Slocum) to the Troy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
2.9%
Daetrich Harrington run for 5 yds to the Troy 6Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+2
2.3%
Daetrich Harrington run for 2 yds to the Troy 4Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+2
2.3%
Daetrich Harrington run for 2 yds to the Troy 2Similar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+2
0.6%
Daetrich Harrington run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:211% → 0%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
0.6%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 21Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+9
0.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 9 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q4 12:52
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+2
0.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to B.J. Smith for 2 yds to the Troy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 22TD
11 plays · 32 yds · 7:46100% → 100%
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
0.5%
Anderson Castle run for 3 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+3
0.5%
Anderson Castle run for 3 yds to the Troy 26Similar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+2
0.6%
Anderson Castle run for 2 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q4 12:52
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+2
0.6%
Anderson Castle run for 2 yds to the Troy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
0.5%
Anderson Castle run for 1 yd to the Troy 21Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+1
0.5%
Jahmir Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 20Similar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+7
0.6%
Jahmir Smith run for 7 yds to the Troy 13Similar
Q4 12:52
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+2
0.6%
Jahmir Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
0.5%
Jahmir Smith run for 8 yds to the Troy 3Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+2
0.5%
Jacob Huesman run for 2 yds to the Troy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.2%
Jahmir Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 2:180% → 0%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
0.1%
TROY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 20Similar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
0.1%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-5
0.1%
TROY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 19Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+4
0.1%
Jamontez Woods run for 4 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
0.1%
Kyle Toole sacked by Logan Doublin for 0 yards to the Troy 16Similar
Q4 2:48
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
0.1%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
0.2%
Anderson Castle run for 2 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+3
0.2%
Anderson Castle run for 3 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+9
0.2%
Anderson Castle run for 9 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:21
Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 21 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)
-14.5
TD · Q3 12:00
Chase Brice pass complete to Eli Wilson for 10 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)
-10.3
TD · Q3 12:14
Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 6 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)
-8.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com