Try the model
GASO

Georgia Southern 38 at Texas State 30

TXST
2021 · Week 11 · Nov 13, 2021 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreGASO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:31 · Alex Raynor 43 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 182Home team on offense−34.1Score differential−14.5Garbage-time factor−12.0Pregame prior+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−7.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:55: Cam Ransom pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 48 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK) — GASO win probability +9.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:44: Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +16.8 pts (now 61%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:53: Justin Tomlin pass complete to Beau Johnson for 25 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK) — GASO win probability +19.0 pts (now 72%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:30: Jalen White run for 5 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK) — GASO win probability +17.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:10: Timeout GA SOUTHERN, clock 01:10 — GASO win probability +7.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 8 of 11GASO made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 10:03TXST 4th & 19 at GASO 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    57.0%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:09GASO 4th & 6 at TXST 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    41.6%−1.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:02TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.0%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:02TXST 4th & 15 at TXST 46, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.8%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    54.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:42GASO 4th & 10 at TXST 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.7%
    54% to make
    Punt
    44.1%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:11TXST 4th & 11 at TXST 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:16TXST 4th & 3 at TXST 46, down 10
    Close callPunted · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:42GASO 4th & 6 at GASO 20, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:17TXST 4th & 5 at GASO 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    34.9%−3.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:02GASO 4th & 7 at GASO 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:00GASO 4th & 14 at GASO 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−3.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:16TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−2.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:35TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:46GASO 4th & 11 at GASO 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−2.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:21TXST 4th & 14 at GASO 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−2.6
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.3%
    49% to make
    Punt
    27.2%−2.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:15TXST 4th & 8 at GASO 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−3.0
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    15.2%−14.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:31GASO 4th & 5 at TXST 26, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    88.8%−2.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:31TXST 4th & 14 at TXST 22, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.5%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2GASO made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 12:04TXST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:59GASO Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:55GASO Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:44TXST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:53GASO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:30GASO Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1PUNT
14 plays · 56 yds · 4:5755% → 55%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+10
55.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for 10 yds to the TexSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+16
55.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 16 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
55.0%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the TexSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+1
55.0%
Tyler Vitt run for 1 yd to the TexSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+12
55.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for 12 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
55.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 12 yds to the GeoSo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
55.0%
Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
55.0%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Chandler SpeightsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+12
55.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for 12 yds to the GeoSo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
55.0%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
55.0%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 29
-11
55.0%
Tyler Vitt sacked by C.J. Wright for a loss of 11 yards to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q1 10:03
4TH & 19
OPP 40
0
55.3%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 25 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2FG
11 plays · 78 yds · 4:5445% → 46%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
55.5%
Logan Wright run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+24
55.4%
Cam Ransom pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 24 yds to the GeoSo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
55.0%
Logan Wright run for no gain to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+13
55.2%
Cam Ransom pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 13 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
54.9%
Logan Wright run for 2 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+15
55.1%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the TexSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+18
54.7%
Cam Ransom pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 18 yds to the TexSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
54.7%
Logan Wright run for 2 yds to the TexSt 9Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
54.7%
Cam Ransom pass incomplete to Amare JonesSimilar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+2
54.9%
Cam Ransom run for 2 yds to the TexSt 7Similar
Q1 5:09
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+24
54.5%
Alex Raynor 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3DOWNS
12 plays · 4 yds · 5:0054% → 53%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
54.4%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 3 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+10
54.5%
Tyler Vitt run for 10 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
55.2%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd to the TexSt 39Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+9
54.6%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jahmyl Jeter for 9 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+1
55.2%
Tyler Vitt run for 1 yd to the TexSt 49Similar
Q1 5:02
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+2
54.9%
Tyler Vitt run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
55.6%
Jeter,Jahmyl rush for 9 yards gain to the GS 40, End Of Play PENALTY TXS UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Hergel,Kyle) 15 yards from GS 49 to TXS36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 25
OWN 36
+1
54.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jahmyl Jeter for 1 yd to the TexSt 35Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 26
OWN 35
+11
54.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 11 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 15
OWN 46
0
54.2%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Rontavious GrovesSimilar
Q1 0:02
4TH & 15
OWN 46
+15
53.1%
Seamus O'Kelly run for 15 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4MISSED FG
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1848% → 46%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
51.8%
Logan Wright run for 5 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 26
0
51.6%
Cam Ransom pass incomplete to Amare JonesSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 26
-5
52.2%
PENALTY GS False Start (Pyron,Aaron) 5 yards from TXS26 to TXS31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
52.4%
Cam Ransom pass incomplete to Derwin Burgess Jr.Similar
Q2 14:42
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+48
53.7%
Alex Raynor 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 2:3854% → 61%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
54.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 11 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
55.3%
Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+6
55.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 6 yds to the GeoSo 49Similar
Q2 14:42
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+2
55.4%
Tyler Vitt run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+18
55.7%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 18 yds to the GeoSo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
56.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for 6 yds to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+10
56.4%
Calvin Hill run for 10 yds to the GeoSo 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
60.7%
Calvin Hill run for 13 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:0541% → 51%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
58.6%
Logan Wright run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
58.4%
Cam Ransom run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
58.0%
Cam Ransom pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
58.2%
Cam Ransom pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 5 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+10
57.4%
Cam Ransom run for 10 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
56.7%
Gerald Green run for no gain to the TexSt 48Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+24
56.9%
Amare Jones run for 24 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
55.9%
Jalen White run for 1 yd to the TexSt 23Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+4
55.9%
Cam Ransom run for 4 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+19
49.4%
Jalen White run for 19 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4152% → 50%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
51.7%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 9 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 11
OWN 18
0
51.5%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Caleb TwyfordSimilar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 11
OWN 18
0
50.5%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q2 7:11
4TH & 11
OWN 18
0
50.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Khaleb Hood at the GeoSo 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8TD
3 plays · 63 yds · 1:1650% → 60%
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
50.4%
Gerald Green run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+12
49.7%
Cam Ransom run for 12 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
40.2%
Cam Ransom pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 48 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:3241% → 41%
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
41.4%
PENALTY GS UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Williams,Britton) 15 yards from TXS24 to TXS39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
42.3%
Tyler Vitt run for 3 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+6
42.8%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 6 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q2 5:48
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
42.8%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q2 4:16
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
40.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:3459% → 59%
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
40.9%
Cam Ransom run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 15Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+5
41.3%
Logan Wright run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 20Similar
Q2 4:16
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
41.7%
Cam Ransom pass incomplete to Derwin Burgess Jr.Similar
Q2 2:42
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
41.4%
Anthony Beck II punt for 28 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2543% → 44%
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
43.1%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 12
OPP 35
0
42.6%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 12
OPP 35
+7
40.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for 7 yds to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+45
44.3%
Seth Keller 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12PUNT TD
12 plays · 13 yds · 1:1560% → 46%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
40.2%
Gerald Green run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
39.6%
Cam Ransom pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 9 yds to the GeoSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
38.5%
PENALTY GS False Start (Dowdell,Aaron) 5 yards from GS 35 to GS 30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+1
39.8%
Logan Wright run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+5
40.3%
Logan Wright run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+4
40.4%
Cam Ransom run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
54.1%
punt blocked by Kenny Haynes blocked by Kenny Haynes for a TD , Kenny Haynes returns for no gain for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
53.0%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 3:0047% → 44%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
53.5%
PENALTY GS False Start (Langemeier,Logan) 5 yards from GS 25 to GS 20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
53.7%
Cam Ransom pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 8 yds to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
53.2%
Cam Ransom run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
54.6%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 10 yds to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
52.5%
Logan Wright run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+9
51.6%
run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 30
+3
55.0%
Justin Tomlin run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q3 12:00
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
56.2%
Anthony Beck II punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15PUNT TD
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4457% → 38%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
56.6%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 2 yds to the TexSt 15Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 8
OWN 15
0
56.6%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Chandler SpeightsSimilar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 8
OWN 15
0
55.0%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q3 11:16
4TH & 8
OWN 15
+20
37.7%
punt blocked by Derwin Burgess Jr. blocked by Derwin Burgess Jr. for a TD , Tyrell Davis returns for 20 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 1:3540% → 39%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
39.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 14 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
40.7%
Hill,Calvin rush for 4 yards gain to the TXS41 (Bembry,Deonta) PENALTY TXS Holding (Robinson,Silas) 10 yards from TXS37 to TXS27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+15
39.7%
Vitt,Tyler pass incomplete QB hurried by Wright,C.J. and Ellis,Justin PENALTY GS Roughing The Passer (Wright,C.J.) 15 yards from TXS27 to TXS42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
42.2%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 4 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
42.9%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Julian Ortega-JonesSimilar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
41.3%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Drue JacksonSimilar
Q3 9:35
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
38.7%
David Nunez punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:4962% → 62%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
37.7%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the GeoSo 15Similar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+8
37.9%
Tomlin,Justin rush for 8 yards gain to the GS 23 (Daniels,Gjemar) PENALTY GS Personal Foul offsetting TXS Targeting offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 15
OWN 15
0
37.9%
Justin Tomlin pass incomplete to Derwin Burgess Jr.Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+4
38.2%
Jalen White run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
39.1%
Justin Tomlin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:46
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
38.1%
Anthony Beck II punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18TD
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:0243% → 61%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
42.8%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Eldrick Robinson II) to the GeoSo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
44.3%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 10 yds to the GeoSo 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
44.3%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 10 yds to the GeoSo 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+5
44.4%
PENALTY TXS False Start (Dobson,Liam) 5 yards from GS 01 to GS 06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
44.3%
Tyler Vitt run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 1Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
44.3%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Dennis RobinsonSimilar
Q3 5:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.2%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 19MISSED FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 0:0046% → 50%
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
53.9%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 3 yds to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
53.4%
Khaleb Hood run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q3 5:44
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
53.7%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 7 yds to the GeoSo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+41
51.6%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 41 yds to the TexSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
48.0%
Justin Tomlin pass incomplete to Beau JohnsonSimilar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+4
48.4%
Jalen White run for 4 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
Q3 5:44
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+4
49.6%
Justin Tomlin run for 4 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 20TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:1053% → 72%
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
46.8%
Justin Tomlin pass incomplete to Derwin Burgess Jr.Similar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
27.8%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Beau Johnson for 25 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21MISSED FG
12 plays · 32 yds · 4:3236% → 29%
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
36.3%
Calvin Hill run for 6 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
39.5%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
39.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 9 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+2
40.7%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
37.5%
Tyler Vitt run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
37.6%
Tyler Vitt run for no gain to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+10
36.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 10 yds to the GeoSo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
39.4%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Julian Ortega-JonesSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+1
39.3%
Tyler Vitt run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+5
37.1%
Tyler Vitt run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q4 12:21
4TH & 14
OPP 33
+50
29.0%
Seth Keller 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 22INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
25.5%
Justin Tomlin pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23FG
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:5933% → 41%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 12
OWN 48
+18
32.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Chandler Speights for 18 yds to the GeoSo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
37.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 4 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+5
37.9%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+7
35.7%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
37.8%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 24Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 16
OPP 24
+6
35.3%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 18Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+2
35.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jahmyl Jeter for 2 yds to the GeoSo 16Similar
Q4 9:15
4TH & 8
OPP 16
+33
41.4%
Seth Keller 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 24TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3867% → 91%
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
32.8%
Logan Wright run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
32.5%
Justin Tomlin run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+19
35.0%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 19 yds to the GeoSo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
29.8%
Jalen White run for 11 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+41
28.9%
Jalen White run for 34 yds to the TexSt 14 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, Targeting (Troy Lefeged Jr.) to the TexSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
27.1%
Jalen White run for 2 yds to the TexSt 5Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
27.1%
Justin Tomlin pass incomplete to Chase HancockSimilar
Q4 5:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
9.4%
Jalen White run for 5 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5211% → 10%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
10.6%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 7 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+2
11.7%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 2 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
9.5%
Tyler Vitt pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 26MISSED FG
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:0091% → 93%
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
8.9%
Jalen White run for 2 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
8.8%
Jalen White run for no gain to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 3:42
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+3
7.2%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Beau Johnson for 3 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q4 3:31
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+43
6.8%
Alex Raynor 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 27FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 2:215% → 11%
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
5.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 1 yd to the TexSt 27Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
5.2%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 9
OWN 27
-5
5.0%
PENALTY TXS False Start (Robinson,Silas) 5 yards from TXS27 to TXS22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 14
OWN 22
0
4.9%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q4 3:31
4TH & 14
OWN 22
+33
4.7%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 33 yds to the GeoSo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
6.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 5 yds to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
6.8%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Julian Ortega-JonesSimilar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
6.5%
Vitt,Tyler pass incomplete to Speights,Chandler, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY GS Pass Interference (Davis,Tyrell), 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
6.5%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Javen BanksSimilar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+22
6.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 22 yds to the GeoSo 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
7.9%
Jahmyl Jeter run for no gain to the GeoSo 18Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+34
11.2%
Seth Keller 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 28END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · -6 yds · 1:0997% → 97%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
3.4%
run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 45
-3
3.1%
run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:53
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Beau Johnson for 25 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)
-19
TD · Q4 5:30
Jalen White run for 5 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)
-17.7
TD · Q3 5:44
Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)
+16.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com