Try the model
USA

South Alabama 24 at Troy 31

TROY
2021 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2021 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameTD-10.5TROY 15.9%Terrion Avery 3 Yd pass from DesmondTrotter (Diego Guajardo Kick)AWAY 13 - HOME 0 · Q3 1:22
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:22 · Terrion Avery 3 Yd pass from Desmond Trotter (Diego Guajardo Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 114Home team on offense−26.8Score differential−12.3Pregame prior+2.5Garbage-time factor−8.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:24: Desmond Trotter 4 Yd Run (Diego Guajardo Kick) — USA win probability +1.6 pts (now 43%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q1 7:15: Brooks Buce 22 Yd Field Goal — USA win probability +3.0 pts (now 45%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 0:56: Jamontez Woods 3 Yd Run (Brooks Buce Kick) — USA win probability +3.6 pts (now 49%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 5:36: Jamontez Woods 3 Yd Run (Brooks Buce Kick) — USA win probability +1.4 pts (now 57%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:22: Terrion Avery 3 Yd pass from Desmond Trotter (Diego Guajardo Kick) — USA win probability +10.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 2 of 5USA made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 9:14TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 30, down 13
    Close callPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:15TROY 4th & 5 at USA 5, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.8%
    92% to make
    Punt
    55.0%−1.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:10USA 4th & 6 at USA 33, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00USA 4th & 1 at USA 27, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    50.0%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:49USA 4th & 4 at USA 36, up 13
    Close callPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:41USA 4th & 4 at TROY 47, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.1%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:49USA 4th & 5 at USA 37, up 13
    Close callPunted · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:41TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 22, down 13
    Close callPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:41USA 4th & 8 at TROY 45, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    62.1%−1.3
    25% to make
    Punt
    63.1%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:14USA 4th & 1 at USA 33, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    69.7%−2.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:14USA 4th & 2 at TROY 21, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    69.2%−1.3
    74% to make
    Punt
    60.2%−10.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:22USA 4th & 3 at TROY 3, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    82.5%−2.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    70.6%−14.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:53TROY 4th & 11 at TROY 34, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:45USA 4th & 15 at TROY 16, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−1.9
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    86.0%−6.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:14TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 47, down 13
    Close callPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:14USA 4th & 1 at USA 19, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    94.0%−1.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:29USA 4th & 3 at USA 29, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    96.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:24USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1TD
11 plays · 88 yds · 4:3640% → 43%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
59.6%
Terrion Avery run for 3 yds to the SAlab 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+6
59.6%
Terrion Avery run for 6 yds to the SAlab 21Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+2
59.6%
Terrion Avery run for 2 yds to the SAlab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
59.6%
Jake Bentley run for 12 yds to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
59.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 14 yds to the SAlab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
59.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 8 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+5
59.6%
Terrion Avery run for 5 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
59.6%
Terrion Avery run for 2 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+27
59.6%
TROY Penalty, Roughing the Passer on SOLOMON, Javon enforced half the distance from the goal (Javon Solomon) to the Troy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
57.2%
Desmond Trotter 4 Yd Run (Diego Guajardo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1058% → 57%
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
57.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+1
57.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the Troy 30Similar
Q1 10:24
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
57.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:14
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
57.2%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the SAlab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3FUMBLE
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
56.0%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 22 fumbled, recovered by Troy Antonio ShowersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:5558% → 56%
Q1 9:10
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
58.2%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Roughing the Passer on COLEMAN III, Charles enforced half the distance from the goal ( Yards) to the SAlab 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
58.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the SAlab 8Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
58.4%
Gunnar Watson run for 3 yds to the SAlab 5Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
58.2%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
58.4%
Jamontez Woods run for 2 yds to the SAlab 20Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
58.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
55.5%
Brooks Buce 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 2:0547% → 48%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
53.5%
Terrion Avery run for 3 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+1
53.5%
Terrion Avery run for 1 yd to the SAlab 33Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
53.6%
Desmond Trotter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:10
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
52.3%
Jack Brooks punt for 52 yds, downed at the Troy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 4:1454% → 51%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
53.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 5 yds to the Troy 20Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 5
OWN 20
0
53.5%
B.J. Smith run for no gain to the Troy 20Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+12
53.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 12 yds to the Troy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+28
53.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 28 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
54.3%
B.J. Smith run for no gain to the SAlab 40Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
54.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 4 yds to the SAlab 36Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+6
54.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Orlando Lacey for 6 yds to the SAlab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
54.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 12 yds to the SAlab 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
54.7%
Gunnar Watson run for 6 yds to the SAlab 12Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+9
54.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 9 yds to the SAlab 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
51.1%
Jamontez Woods 3 Yd Run (Brooks Buce Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 4:0752% → 55%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+14
48.4%
Terrion Avery run for 14 yds to the SAlab 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
48.1%
Desmond Trotter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-1
47.5%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Caullin Lacy for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 17Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 17
+10
47.9%
Desmond Trotter run for 10 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 27
+3
47.8%
Terrion Avery run for 3 yds to the SAlab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
47.2%
Terrion Avery run for 5 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-6
47.0%
Caullin Lacy run for a loss of 6 yards to the SAlab 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+7
47.8%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 7 yds to the SAlab 36Similar
Q2 11:49
4TH & 4
OWN 36
+14
45.2%
Jack Brooks punt for 54 yds , Tez Johnson returns for 14 yds to the Troy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8TD
5 plays · 76 yds · 1:3946% → 47%
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
46.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 5 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 5
OWN 29
0
46.7%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Offsides (Wy'Kevious Thomas) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
47.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 11 yds to the SAlab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
47.7%
B.J. Smith run for 12 yds to the SAlab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
47.4%
Tez Johnson 31 Yd Run (Brooks Buce Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:2957% → 58%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
43.4%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 8 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+5
42.7%
Bryan Hill run for 5 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
42.6%
Bryan Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 46Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
42.9%
Desmond Trotter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+7
43.2%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 7 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q2 7:41
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
41.6%
Desmond Trotter pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 2:0544% → 43%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
44.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jamontez Woods for no gain to the Troy 47Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+15
43.7%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Tre Young) to the SAlab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
44.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Demontrez Brown for 6 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 4
OPP 30
0
45.2%
Jamontez Woods run for no gain to the SAlab 30Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+27
44.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Demontrez Brown for 27 yds to the SAlab 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
42.8%
Jamontez Woods 3 Yd Run (Brooks Buce Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11INT TD
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:4161% → 61%
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
39.5%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 3 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-32
38.9%
KJ Robertson 32 Yd Interception Return (Brooks Buce Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0661% → 63%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
38.7%
Bryan Hill run for 5 yds to the SAlab 37Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+1
38.4%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 1 yd to the SAlab 38Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
38.1%
Desmond Trotter sacked by Javon Solomon for 0 yards to the SAlab 37Similar
Q2 2:49
4TH & 5
OWN 37
+3
36.7%
Jack Brooks punt for 53 yds , Tez Johnson returns for 3 yds to the Troy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:5937% → 31%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
37.4%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 15Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 8
OWN 15
0
37.4%
Taylor Powell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 8
OWN 15
+7
31.7%
B.J. Smith run for 7 yds to the Troy 22Similar
Q2 1:41
4TH & 1
OWN 22
+3
31.4%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 43 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 3 yds to the Troy 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14TD
10 plays · 47 yds · 1:3267% → 73%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
32.6%
Desmond Trotter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-2
32.8%
Terrion Avery run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 49Similar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+4
33.4%
Desmond Trotter run for 4 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q2 1:41
4TH & 8
OPP 45
+10
33.9%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Terrion Avery for 10 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
32.1%
Desmond Trotter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
32.2%
Desmond Trotter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+16
32.5%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 16 yds to the Troy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
27.0%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 8 yds to the Troy 11Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+11
26.8%
Terrion Avery 11 Yd pass from Desmond Trotter (Diego Guajardo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16INT
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:4636% → 35%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
36.4%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Tez Johnson for 2 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
36.6%
Jamontez Woods run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+13
35.4%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 13 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
37.4%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Jabre Barber for 6 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+1
38.0%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+21
37.6%
Taylor Powell pass complete to B.J. Smith for 21 yds to the SAlab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-8
39.8%
Jabre Barber run for a loss of 8 yards to the SAlab 41Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 18
OPP 41
0
34.6%
Taylor Powell pass intercepted return for no gain to the SAlab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17TD
19 plays · 76 yds · 9:5272% → 84%
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
27.8%
Desmond Trotter pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+9
27.9%
Desmond Trotter run for 9 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q3 11:14
3RD & 1
OWN 33
0
28.8%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jacob Hopper for no gain to the SAlab 33Similar
Q3 11:14
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+9
29.5%
Terrion Avery run for 9 yds to the SAlab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
26.1%
Terrion Avery run for 2 yds to the SAlab 44Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+3
26.9%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 3 yds to the SAlab 47Similar
Q3 11:14
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+8
27.1%
Desmond Trotter run for 8 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
25.7%
Terrion Avery run for 2 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+14
26.7%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 14 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
25.2%
Terrion Avery run for 3 yds to the Troy 26Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 7
OPP 26
-2
26.1%
Terrion Avery run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 28Similar
Q3 11:14
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+7
25.8%
Desmond Trotter run for 7 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q3 11:14
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+2
28.6%
Bryan Hill run for 2 yds to the Troy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
25.2%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 8 yds to the Troy 11Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+7
26.1%
Bryan Hill run for 7 yds to the Troy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
26.1%
Bryan Hill run for 1 yd to the Troy 3Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
26.1%
Bryan Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 4Similar
Q3 11:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
26.5%
Desmond Trotter run for 1 yd to the Troy 3Similar
Q3 1:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
15.9%
Terrion Avery 3 Yd pass from Desmond Trotter (Diego Guajardo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 3:2923% → 19%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
22.7%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
21.6%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Demontrez Brown for 4 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
21.3%
TROY Penalty, False Start (Kannon Biggs) to the Troy 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
20.5%
POWELL, Taylor sacked for a loss of 11 yards at the TRO15 (COLEMAN III, Charles). PENALTY USA Offsides on BELL, Christian enforced 5 yards from the TRO26 to the TRO31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
21.3%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
22.1%
B.J. Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
21.6%
Taylor Powell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
20.6%
Taylor Powell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:53
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
18.6%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19FG
14 plays · 49 yds · 6:0888% → 93%
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
12.1%
Terrion Avery run for 4 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+16
11.4%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 16 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
11.1%
Terrion Avery run for 4 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+8
11.1%
Bryan Hill run for 8 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
10.9%
Bryan Hill run for no gain to the Troy 33Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+11
7.4%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 11 yds to the Troy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
7.1%
Terrion Avery run for 3 yds to the Troy 19Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+5
7.1%
Terrion Avery run for 5 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+3
7.4%
Terrion Avery run for 3 yds to the Troy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
7.1%
Desmond Trotter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+1
7.1%
Terrion Avery run for 1 yd to the Troy 10Similar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 9
OPP 10
0
7.5%
Desmond Trotter sacked by Javon Solomon for 0 yards to the Troy 16Similar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 15
OPP 16
+34
6.7%
Diego Guajardo 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 38 yds · 2:319% → 7%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+34
8.6%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 34 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
10.1%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 44Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
10.1%
Taylor Powell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+3
9.4%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q4 4:14
4TH & 6
OWN 47
+3
7.3%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 46 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 3 yds to the SAlab 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21DOWNS
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:4595% → 98%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
5.2%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 3 yds to the SAlab 13Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 7
OWN 13
-1
5.3%
Terrion Avery run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 12Similar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+7
5.5%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Terrion Avery for 7 yds to the SAlab 19Similar
Q4 4:14
4TH & 1
OWN 19
+3
5.0%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 3 yds to the SAlab 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
5.0%
Desmond Trotter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+2
2.6%
Desmond Trotter run for 2 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+5
2.6%
Desmond Trotter run for 5 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q4 1:29
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
2.4%
Desmond Trotter pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+18
6.1%
B.J. Smith run for 18 yds to the SAlab 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+94.8
TD · Q3 1:22
Terrion Avery 3 Yd pass from Desmond Trotter (Diego Guajardo Kick)
-10.5
TD · Q1 0:56
Jamontez Woods 3 Yd Run (Brooks Buce Kick)
-3.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com