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ULM

UL Monroe 19 at Texas State 27

TXST
2021 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2021 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:42 · Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Dariyan Wiley
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factor
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 186Home team on offense−12.2Pregame prior+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.9Score differential−5.2Garbage-time factor−5.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:58: Andrew Henry run for 1 yd for a TD (Calum Sutherland PAT MISSED) — ULM win probability +1.9 pts (now 48%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:11: Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for 49 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +5.0 pts (now 58%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:58: Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +8.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:02: Chandler Rogers run for 10 yds for a TD (Calum Sutherland KICK) — ULM win probability +9.6 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. FG · Q4 12:22: Calum Sutherland 51 yd FG MISSED — ULM win probability +14.0 pts (now 57%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 7 of 9ULM made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 14:15TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:53ULM 4th & 3 at TXST 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    40.5%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:53TXST 4th & 1 at ULM 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    59.7%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    59.6%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:12TXST 4th & 7 at ULM 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    58.9%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:04ULM 4th & 10 at TXST 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.7%
    45% to make
    Punt
    37.3%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:02ULM 4th & 1 at TXST 10, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    27.4%−3.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    20.4%−10.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:54TXST 4th & 7 at ULM 26, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    58.8%−4.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:13ULM 4th & 10 at TXST 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.8%
    60% to make
    Punt
    28.2%−5.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:44TXST 4th & 9 at TXST 38, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−1.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:10ULM 4th & 22 at ULM 42, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−6.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:10ULM 4th & 22 at ULM 42, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−6.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:25TXST 4th & 14 at TXST 15, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−5.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:22ULM 4th & 10 at TXST 34, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.9%
    47% to make
    Punt
    35.2%−2.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:36TXST 4th & 11 at TXST 33, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−4.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:48ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 33, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−3.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:25TXST 4th & 4 at ULM 48, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%−3.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:31ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 37, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    53.4%−6.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:39TXST 4th & 2 at ULM 5, down 2
    Numbers favored field goal by 8.4 ptsWent for it · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.3%−8.4
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    52.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    25.9%−26.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:42ULM 4th & 10 at ULM 40, up 2
    Numbers favored punt by 2.4 ptsWent for it · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.4%−2.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    67.8%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:36ULM 4th & 5 at ULM 30, up 2
    Numbers favored punt by 3.0 ptsWent for it · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.8%−3.0
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    75.7%
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:17ULM 4th & 4 at ULM 44, up 2
    Numbers favored punt by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.8%−1.0
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    83.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ULM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 2:58ULM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    42.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:11TXST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:58TXST Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:02ULM Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4553% → 53%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.1%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Rontavious GrovesSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
53.1%
Tyler Vitt run for 6 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
53.1%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Drue JacksonSimilar
Q1 14:15
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
53.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Boogie Knight at the LaMon 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 28 yds · 2:2247% → 47%
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+21
53.2%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Boogie Knight for 21 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
53.1%
Chandler Rogers run for 3 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+1
53.1%
Andrew Henry run for 1 yd to the TexSt 43Similar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+3
53.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Malik Jackson for 3 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q1 11:53
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
53.4%
Devyn McCormick punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3FG
11 plays · 73 yds · 3:4154% → 55%
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+42
53.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 42 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
53.8%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 7 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+9
53.9%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 9 yds to the LaMon 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
54.0%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Javen BanksSimilar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
54.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Rontavious Groves for 3 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q1 11:53
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+6
53.9%
Tyler Vitt run for 6 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q1 11:53
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+3
53.8%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 3 yds to the LaMon 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
54.1%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Javen BanksSimilar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
54.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 3 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
Q1 11:53
3RD & 7
OPP 25
0
53.9%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q1 8:12
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+42
54.9%
Seth Keller 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:1445% → 48%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
54.9%
Andrew Henry run for 2 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
54.8%
Chandler Rogers run for 4 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q1 8:12
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+12
54.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Will Derrick for 12 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
54.3%
Andrew Henry run for 3 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+15
54.2%
Rogers,Chandler pass incomplete to Frett,Jevin PENALTY TXS Pass Interference (Rodgers,Kordell) 15 yards from ULM46 to TXS39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
54.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Will Derrick for 8 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+3
53.8%
Andrew Henry run for 3 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
53.8%
Andrew Henry run for 2 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+9
53.8%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Dariyan Wiley for 9 yds to the TexSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
53.8%
Chandler Rogers run for 10 yds to the TexSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
53.8%
Andrew Henry run for 3 yds to the TexSt 4Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
53.9%
Andrew Henry run for 3 yds to the TexSt 1Similar
Q1 2:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
52.0%
Andrew Henry run for 1 yd for a TD (Calum Sutherland PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:4753% → 58%
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.7%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
52.6%
Vitt,Tyler pass incomplete QB hurried by Mason,Seth PENALTY TXS Holding (Lanam,Jackson) 10 yards from TXS25 to TXS15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+17
52.5%
Calvin Hill run for 17 yds to the TexSt 32 Calvin Hill fumbled, forced by Jabari Johnson, recovered by TexStSimilar
Q1 2:58
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
52.5%
Calvin Hill run for 7 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
53.2%
PENALTY TXS False Start (Lanam,Jackson) 5 yards from TXS39 to TXS34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:58
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+17
52.6%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 17 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
57.6%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for 49 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6FG
14 plays · 40 yds · 6:0744% → 43%
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
56.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Boogie Knight for 11 yds to the LaMon 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
55.9%
Andrew Henry run for 5 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
55.3%
Andrew Henry run for 4 yds to the LaMon 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+5
55.4%
Chandler Rogers run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+7
55.0%
Andrew Henry run for 7 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+1
54.8%
Chandler Rogers run for 1 yd to the TexSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+7
55.0%
Chandler Rogers run for 7 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
54.5%
UL MONROE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 17
OPP 42
+2
55.5%
Jakyle Holmes run for 2 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 40
+1
55.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jared Sparks for 1 yd to the TexSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 41
-5
56.3%
PENALTY ULM False Start (Jackson,Zach) 5 yards from TXS41 to TXS46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 21
OPP 46
+11
56.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to for 11 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q2 10:04
4TH & 10
OPP 35
+52
56.9%
Calum Sutherland 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:0657% → 68%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
56.9%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 15 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
58.0%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd to the TexSt 39Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+13
57.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for 13 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
58.9%
Jeter,Jahmyl rush for 33 yards gain to the ULM15 (Newton,Josh; Swinney,Keilos) PENALTY TXS Holding (Lanam,Jackson) 10 yards from ULM48 to TXS42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 20
OWN 42
+14
57.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 14 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+7
58.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 7 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+24
58.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 24 yds to the LaMon 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
59.3%
PENALTY TXS False Start (Cooper,Dalton) 5 yards from ULM13 to ULM18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 15
OPP 18
+7
59.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Rontavious Groves for 7 yds to the LaMon 11Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+10
59.3%
Caleb Twyford run for 10 yds to the LaMon 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.2%
Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:5633% → 43%
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
67.0%
Malik Jackson run for 14 yds to the LaMon 39 UL MONROE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jared Sparks) to the LaMon 18Similar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 17
OWN 18
0
67.1%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Will DerrickSimilar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+7
67.3%
Andrew Henry run for 7 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+43
67.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jared Sparks for 43 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
63.6%
Malik Jackson run for 13 yds to the TexSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
63.2%
Andrew Henry run for 5 yds to the TexSt 14Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+3
63.2%
Andrew Henry run for 3 yds to the TexSt 11Similar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+1
64.5%
Andrew Henry run for 1 yd to the TexSt 10Similar
Q2 2:02
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+10
56.8%
Chandler Rogers run for 10 yds for a TD (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9FG
12 plays · 49 yds · 1:0860% → 64%
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
60.2%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
60.4%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Trevis Graham Jr.Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+14
59.0%
Tyler Vitt run for 14 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
61.9%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Javen BanksSimilar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+30
61.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 30 yds to the LaMon 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
63.9%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Chandler SpeightsSimilar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
63.7%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+1
61.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Micah Hilts for 1 yd to the LaMon 26Similar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+43
63.5%
Seth Keller 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10END OF HALF
10 plays · 46 yds · 0:5435% → 39%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
64.9%
Andrew Henry run for 5 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
65.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Andrew Henry for 4 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
63.9%
Andrew Henry run for 5 yds to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
64.3%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+25
64.8%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Will Derrick for 25 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
61.1%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+7
61.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jevin Frett for 7 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11FG
14 plays · 47 yds · 4:4739% → 41%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.9%
Chandler Rogers run for 1 yd to the LaMon 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
60.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Dariyan Wiley for 5 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
60.9%
Chandler Rogers run for 6 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
59.8%
Chandler Rogers run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
57.3%
Malik Jackson run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
50
+3
58.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Andrew Henry for 3 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+7
58.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Andrew Henry for 7 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
57.3%
Jakyle Holmes run for 7 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+5
56.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jevin Frett for 5 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
56.0%
Malik Jackson run for 5 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 23
-5
56.0%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Nico Ezidore for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
57.7%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Dariyan WileySimilar
Q3 10:13
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
59.0%
Calum Sutherland 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:2960% → 59%
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
60.2%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 7 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
61.9%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 5 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
61.2%
Tyler Vitt run for 1 yd to the TexSt 38Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
61.1%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Drue JacksonSimilar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
59.9%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q3 8:44
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
58.6%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Boogie Knight at the LaMon 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13PUNT
12 plays · 26 yds · 5:3440% → 38%
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
59.8%
Andrew Henry run for 8 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+3
58.9%
Andrew Henry run for 3 yds to the LaMon 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
59.6%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Andrew Henry for 2 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+1
59.5%
Jakyle Holmes run for 1 yd to the LaMon 30Similar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+8
60.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Will Derrick for 8 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
58.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jakyle Holmes for 2 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+14
57.6%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Coby Cavil for 14 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
56.0%
Andrew Henry run for 3 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-8
56.1%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Issiah Nixon for a loss of 8 yards to the LaMon 49Similar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 15
OWN 49
+7
59.4%
Chandler Rogers run for 7 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q3 3:10
4TH & 22
OWN 42
0
62.3%
Devyn McCormick punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Rontavious Groves at the TexSt 19Similar
Q3 3:10
4TH & 22
OWN 42
0
62.3%
Devyn McCormick punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Rontavious Groves at the TexSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:4561% → 58%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
61.1%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 3 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+1
61.0%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd to the TexSt 23Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 6
OWN 23
0
59.3%
PENALTY TXS Face Mask (Groves,Rontavius) 11 yard from TXS23 to TXS12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 17
OWN 12
+3
59.1%
Tyler Vitt run for 3 yds to the TexSt 15Similar
Q3 1:25
4TH & 14
OWN 15
0
58.3%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Boogie Knight at the LaMon 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15FG
9 plays · 21 yds · 4:0343% → 57%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
57.2%
Andrew Henry run for 4 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+4
56.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Boogie Knight for 4 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+2
56.5%
Andrew Henry run for 2 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
55.9%
Malik Jackson run for 5 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+6
55.4%
Chandler Rogers run for 6 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
54.4%
Chandler Rogers run for 1 yd to the TexSt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 35
0
54.5%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Dariyan WileySimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 35
+1
57.3%
Chandler Rogers run for 1 yd to the TexSt 34Similar
Q4 12:22
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+51
43.4%
Calum Sutherland 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4649% → 45%
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
49.3%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the TexSt 33Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 11
OWN 33
0
48.4%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Rontavious GrovesSimilar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 11
OWN 33
0
46.4%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Rontavious GrovesSimilar
Q4 11:36
4TH & 11
OWN 33
0
45.3%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Boogie Knight at the LaMon 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4858% → 55%
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
41.6%
Chandler Rogers run for 3 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
41.0%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:36
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
42.8%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Andrew HenrySimilar
Q4 10:48
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
44.8%
Devyn McCormick punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 28 yds · 2:2349% → 51%
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+22
48.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Drue Jackson for 22 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
53.3%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 6
50
+2
54.2%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+4
51.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 4 yds to the LaMon 48Similar
Q4 8:25
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
51.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Boogie Knight at the LaMon 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:5458% → 58%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
41.6%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Will DerrickSimilar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+12
42.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Boogie Knight for 12 yds to the LaMon 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
41.0%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Jevin FrettSimilar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
41.9%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Will DerrickSimilar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+9
43.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Andrew Henry for 9 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q4 7:31
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
42.3%
Chandler Rogers run for no gain to the LaMon 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:5256% → 46%
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-4
55.6%
Calvin Hill run for 6 yds to the LaMon 31 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Micah Hilts) to the LaMon 44Similar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 17
OPP 44
0
52.4%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 17
OPP 44
+19
52.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 19 yds to the LaMon 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
58.3%
Tyler Vitt run for 7 yds to the LaMon 18Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+5
58.3%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the LaMon 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
58.3%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the LaMon 12Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
58.3%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q4 7:31
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+7
55.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Calvin Hill for 7 yds to the LaMon 5Similar
Q4 4:39
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+1
46.2%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd to the LaMon 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21DOWNS
9 plays · 36 yds · 1:5766% → 71%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+15
34.4%
PENALTY TXS UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 15 yards from ULM04 to ULM19, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
33.6%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Will Derrick for 10 yds to the LaMon 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
33.1%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Andrew HenrySimilar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+9
33.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jevin Frett for 9 yds to the LaMon 38Similar
Q4 4:39
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+2
30.6%
Andrew Henry run for 2 yds to the LaMon 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
30.3%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Nicholas McCann for 0 yards to the LaMon 40Similar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
31.3%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Andrew HenrySimilar
Q4 4:39
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
33.2%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Boogie KnightSimilar
Q4 2:42
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
29.5%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Dariyan WileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22TD
6 plays · 40 yds · 0:5950% → 54%
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
49.9%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds to the LaMon 38Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+5
51.5%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 5 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+7
52.2%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 7 yds to the LaMon 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
54.0%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 26 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 20 yds · 1:2677% → 88%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
23.0%
Chandler Rogers sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 22Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+4
20.1%
Chandler Rogers run for 4 yds to the LaMon 26Similar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
20.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Coby Cavil for 5 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q4 1:36
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+8
21.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jakyle Holmes for 8 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
17.1%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Kordell Rodgers for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 37Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 11
OWN 37
0
18.6%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Will DerrickSimilar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+7
19.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Dariyan Wiley for 7 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q4 0:17
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
11.6%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Coby CavilSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
29.5%
run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+70.5
FG · Q4 12:22
Calum Sutherland 51 yd FG MISSED
-14
TD · Q2 2:02
Chandler Rogers run for 10 yds for a TD (Calum Sutherland KICK)
-9.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com