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TROY

Troy 28 at Coastal Carolina 35

CCU
2021 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2021 · Brooks Stadium (SC)
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Win probability · CCU
modelCCU aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playCCU scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:11 · Luke Magliozzi punt for 36 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 85Pregame prior+23.5Home team on offense+4.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential+1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:48: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 42 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK) — TROY win probability +4.2 pts (now 15%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:30: Shermari Jones run for 4 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +5.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:26: Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK) — TROY win probability +13.2 pts (now 21%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:23: Shermari Jones run for 54 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +7.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:52: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 18 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK) — TROY win probability +10.9 pts (now 15%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7TROY made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
  1. Q1 14:20TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:00CCU 4th & 2 at CCU 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:10CCU 4th & 7 at CCU 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:07TROY 4th & 24 at CCU 34, up 7
    Close callPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    17.9%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:00TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:02TROY 4th & 14 at CCU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    15.2%−0.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:48TROY 4th & 2 at CCU 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    11.3%−1.0
    30% to make
    Punt
    11.5%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:46CCU 4th & 14 at CCU 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:11TROY 4th & 6 at CCU 36, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    16.7%−0.4
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:40TROY 4th & 11 at TROY 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:44CCU 4th & 6 at CCU 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:11TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 38, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%−2.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:08TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 34, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:24CCU 4th & 4 at CCU 7, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:41TROY 4th & 7 at CCU 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%−0.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−0.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:04CCU 4th & 4 at CCU 31, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.7%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    93.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:25CCU 4th & 8 at CCU 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:04TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:34CCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:05CCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:57CCU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:48TROY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:30CCU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:26TROY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:23CCU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:52TROY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3212% → 12%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Tez JohnsonSimilar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
87.9%
Gunnar Watson run for 5 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q1 14:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
87.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Luke WhittemoreSimilar
Q1 14:20
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
87.8%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 36 yds, downed at the CCaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5688% → 87%
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
87.7%
Braydon Bennett run for 2 yds to the CCaro 36Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+6
87.6%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 6 yds to the CCaro 42Similar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 2
OWN 42
0
87.5%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Isaiah LikelySimilar
Q1 13:00
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
87.4%
Charles Ouverson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3TD
4 plays · 79 yds · 0:4613% → 14%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+64
87.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 64 yds to the CCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
87.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the CCaro 11Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
87.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Deshon StoudemireSimilar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+11
86.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deyunkrea Lewis for 11 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4487% → 86%
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
86.6%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Jaivon HeilighSimilar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+4
86.4%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 4 yds to the CCaro 14Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 6
OWN 14
-1
85.9%
Grayson McCall sacked by Javon Solomon and KJ Robertson for a loss of 1 yard to the CCaro 13Similar
Q1 10:10
4TH & 7
OWN 13
0
85.6%
Charles Ouverson punt for 53 yds, downed at the Troy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5PUNT
14 plays · 32 yds · 3:5614% → 17%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
85.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 5 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+4
85.1%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+3
84.9%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
84.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 19 yds to the CCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
84.3%
TROY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CCaro 40Similar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 15
OPP 40
0
84.2%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Luke WhittemoreSimilar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 15
OPP 40
+5
84.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to B.J. Smith for 5 yds to the CCaro 35Similar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+15
83.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 15 yds to the CCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
83.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the CCaro 19Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 9
OPP 19
-10
83.0%
Vidal, Kimani rush for 6 yards to the COASTALCAR13, PENALTY TROY holding 10 yards to the COASTALCAR29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 19
OPP 29
0
83.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Deyunkrea LewisSimilar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 19
OPP 29
0
83.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:15
4TH & 19
OPP 29
-5
83.5%
TROY Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the CCaro 34Similar
Q1 6:07
4TH & 24
OPP 34
0
83.4%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 34 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 6TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:1183% → 84%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
83.2%
Shermari Jones run for 3 yds to the CCaro 23Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-5
82.7%
Isaiah Likely run for a loss of 5 yards to the CCaro 18Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+22
82.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 22 yds to the CCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
82.7%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 8 yds to the CCaro 48Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+1
82.6%
Reese White run for 1 yd to the CCaro 49Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+24
82.1%
Reese White run for 24 yds to the Troy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+23
82.6%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Xavier Gravette for 23 yds to the Troy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
81.9%
Shermari Jones run for 2 yds to the Troy 2Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
81.7%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Xavier GravetteSimilar
Q1 1:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
84.4%
Grayson McCall run for 2 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2017% → 17%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
83.1%
Jamontez Woods run for 1 yd to the Troy 26Similar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
83.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Tez JohnsonSimilar
Q1 0:44
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
83.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 8 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
83.0%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jaivon Heiligh at the CCaro 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 8TD
3 plays · 73 yds · 0:5384% → 86%
Q2 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
83.6%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Kameron BrownSimilar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+7
83.3%
Grayson McCall run for 7 yds to the CCaro 34Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+66
86.3%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 66 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9PUNT
12 plays · 29 yds · 3:3314% → 14%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
85.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
85.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Tez JohnsonSimilar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+10
86.1%
Watson, Gunnar pass pass intended for Johnson, Tez intercepted by Boykin, Lance at the TROY45, Boykin, Lance return 5 yards to the TROY40, PENALTY COASTALCAR holding (TEAM) 10 yards to the TROY40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TROY.Similar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
85.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Kimani VidalSimilar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+10
85.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
50
+4
84.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the CCaro 46Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+7
84.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 7 yds to the CCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
84.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the CCaro 38Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+5
84.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kyran Griffin-Isom for 5 yds to the CCaro 33Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 4
OPP 33
-10
84.5%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Jeffrey Gunter for a loss of 10 yards to the CCaro 43 Gunnar Watson fumbled, forced by Jeffrey Gunter, recovered by Troy Grant Betts , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 10:02
4TH & 14
OPP 43
0
85.9%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Jaivon Heiligh at the CCaro 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 10TD
4 plays · 87 yds · 1:5886% → 90%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
85.8%
Isaiah Likely run for 12 yds to the CCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.8%
Grayson McCall run for 2 yds to the CCaro 27Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
85.7%
Grayson McCall run for 2 yds to the CCaro 29Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+71
89.6%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 71 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 1:4211% → 15%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
89.4%
B.J. Smith run for 8 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+14
88.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
50
+5
88.9%
B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the CCaro 45Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
88.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Tez JohnsonSimilar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+3
88.9%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the CCaro 42Similar
Q2 5:48
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+42
84.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 42 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:3986% → 85%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
85.6%
Grayson McCall run for 1 yd to the CCaro 15Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 9
OWN 15
-5
85.5%
McCall, Grayson pass incomplete to Latushko, Greg, PENALTY COASTALCAR ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the COASTALCAR10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 14
OWN 10
0
85.5%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Tyler RobertsSimilar
Q2 4:52
3RD & 14
OWN 10
0
85.1%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Jaivon HeilighSimilar
Q2 4:46
4TH & 14
OWN 10
0
84.6%
Charles Ouverson punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the CCaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2916% → 16%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
83.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Tez JohnsonSimilar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+7
83.8%
Jamontez Woods run for 7 yds to the CCaro 33Similar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+2
83.7%
Jamontez Woods run for 2 yds to the CCaro 31Similar
Q2 3:54
4TH & 1
OPP 31
-5
84.3%
TROY Penalty, False Start (AJ Lewis) to the CCaro 36Similar
Q2 3:11
4TH & 6
OPP 36
0
84.4%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 14INT
5 plays · 51 yds · 1:3485% → 87%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
85.3%
Grayson McCall run for 6 yds to the CCaro 26Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
85.3%
Reese White run for 3 yds to the CCaro 29Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+6
84.9%
Shermari Jones run for 6 yds to the CCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+36
85.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 36 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-15
86.7%
Grayson McCall pass intercepted Reddy Steward return for 15 yds to the Troy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:3016% → 15%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
83.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 5 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+3
83.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 3 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 2
OWN 48
-9
83.1%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Josaiah Stewart and Jeffrey Gunter for a loss of 9 yards to the Troy 39Similar
Q2 0:40
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
85.2%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jaivon Heiligh at the CCaro 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
84.3%
Shermari Jones run for 6 yds to the CCaro 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 17TD
16 plays · 78 yds · 8:0084% → 93%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
84.4%
Shermari Jones run for 4 yds to the CCaro 26Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 6
OWN 26
-5
84.4%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Willie Lampkin) to the CCaro 21Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+7
84.1%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Greg Latushko for 7 yds to the CCaro 28Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+9
83.5%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 9 yds to the CCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
84.6%
Shermari Jones run for 1 yd to the CCaro 38Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
84.8%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Jaivon HeilighSimilar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+13
84.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 13 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
85.6%
Grayson McCall run for no gain to the Troy 49Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
85.3%
Grayson McCall run for 6 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+10
85.9%
Grayson McCall run for 10 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
86.7%
Grayson McCall run for 9 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+10
86.7%
Bryce Carpenter run for 10 yds to the Troy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
87.3%
Bryce Carpenter run for 2 yds to the Troy 12Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+8
87.3%
Shermari Jones run for 8 yds to the Troy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
93.2%
Shermari Jones run for 4 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 3:429% → 21%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
90.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+8
90.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 8 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+24
90.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 24 yds to the CCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 1
OPP 27
0
88.9%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the CCaro 27Similar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
90.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 9 yds to the CCaro 27Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+2
90.4%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the CCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
89.8%
Orlando Lacey pass incomplete to Luke WhittemoreSimilar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
91.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 1 yd to the CCaro 24Similar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+19
92.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 19 yds to the CCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
79.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:1688% → 86%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
88.1%
Isaiah Likely run for 3 yds to the CCaro 44Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+1
89.4%
Shermari Jones run for 1 yd to the CCaro 45Similar
Q3 0:51
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
87.7%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Isaiah LikelySimilar
Q3 0:44
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
86.4%
Charles Ouverson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:1316% → 13%
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+14
84.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 14 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
83.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 9 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 1
OWN 38
0
81.8%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the Troy 38Similar
Q4 13:47
3RD & 1
OWN 38
0
83.8%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the Troy 38Similar
Q4 13:11
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
87.5%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 62 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 21TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:3490% → 97%
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
89.7%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 8 yds to the CCaro 28Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+4
90.1%
Grayson McCall run for 4 yds to the CCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
90.0%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Isaiah LikelySimilar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
89.9%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Jaivon HeilighSimilar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+14
89.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 14 yds to the CCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
96.9%
Shermari Jones run for 54 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:515% → 4%
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.2%
Jamontez Woods run for 3 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
95.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jamontez Woods for 2 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
95.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 4 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q4 9:08
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
95.6%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 65 yds, downed at the CCaro 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4197% → 98%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
97.0%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
97.0%
Shermari Jones run for no gain to the CCaro 1Similar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+6
98.1%
Grayson McCall run for 6 yds to the CCaro 7Similar
Q4 7:24
4TH & 4
OWN 7
0
98.1%
Charles Ouverson punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CCaro 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24TD
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:234% → 15%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
95.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Tez JohnsonSimilar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+3
95.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the CCaro 38Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
96.2%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the CCaro 38Similar
Q4 5:41
4TH & 7
OPP 38
+9
96.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 9 yds to the CCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
95.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Tez JohnsonSimilar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+10
95.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 10 yds to the CCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
95.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the CCaro 18Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+18
84.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 18 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 25PUNT
12 plays · 20 yds · 3:5393% → 96%
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
92.8%
Grayson McCall run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCaro 24Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
93.3%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 7 yds to the CCaro 31Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
93.7%
Shermari Jones run for no gain to the CCaro 31Similar
Q4 3:04
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+12
94.2%
C.J. Brewer run for 12 yds to the CCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
95.4%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CCaro 38Similar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+3
95.6%
Shermari Jones run for 3 yds to the CCaro 41Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+3
96.2%
Shermari Jones run for 3 yds to the CCaro 44Similar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+6
96.7%
Grayson McCall run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:35
4TH & 3
50
-5
96.6%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the CCaro 45Similar
Q4 0:25
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
96.4%
Charles Ouverson punt for 31 yds, downed at the Troy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 26FUMBLE
1 play · -2 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
93.2%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Josaiah Stewart for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 22 Gunnar Watson fumbled, forced by Josaiah Stewart, recovered by CCaro Jeffrey Gunter , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:26
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)
-13.2
TD · Q4 4:52
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 18 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)
-10.9
TD · Q4 11:23
Shermari Jones run for 54 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
+7.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com