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USA

South Alabama 31 at UL Monroe 41

ULM
2021 · Week 8 · Oct 23, 2021 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:00 · Jack Brooks punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Boogie Knight at the LaMon 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 131Pregame prior−6.9Home team on offense+10.7Garbage-time factor+2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.4Score differential+2.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:24: Jake Bentley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 12 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +11.2 pts (now 71%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:04: Chandler Rogers pass complete to Boogie Knight for 9 yds for a TD (Calum Sutherland KICK) (Calum Sutherland KICK) — ULM win probability +11.2 pts (now 53%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:28: Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 40 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +14.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:57: Chandler Rogers pass complete to Fred Lloyd Jr. for 21 yds for a TD (Calum Sutherland KICK) — ULM win probability +18.7 pts (now 48%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:07: Chandler Rogers pass complete to Will Derrick for 81 yds for a TD (Calum Sutherland KICK) — ULM win probability +26.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6USA made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 4:18USA 4th & 3 at ULM 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.7%
    49% to convert
    Field goal
    71.5%−0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    70.2%−1.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:38ULM 4th & 3 at ULM 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:38USA 4th & 1 at USA 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    73.4%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:13USA 4th & 9 at ULM 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.0%
    88% to make
    Punt
    56.5%−5.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:23ULM 4th & 9 at USA 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    33.6%−4.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:12ULM 4th & 3 at USA 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    41.8%−2.0
    49% to make
    Punt
    40.4%−3.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 1:42USA 4th & 3 at USA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%−0.7
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:48USA 4th & 12 at USA 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−4.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:35ULM 4th & 6 at ULM 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−1.9
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:00USA 4th & 15 at USA 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−5.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:28ULM 4th & 4 at USA 23, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.3%−0.5
    70% to make
    Punt
    76.8%−9.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:21USA 4th & 2 at USA 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.5%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:22USA 4th & 5 at ULM 21, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.3%−1.0
    74% to make
    Punt
    4.3%−2.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:00ULM 4th & 2 at ULM 29, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:16USA 4th & 9 at USA 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.6%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5USA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:37ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:18USA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:30ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:24USA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:04ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:17USA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:28USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:57ULM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:07ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2320% → 22%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
19.7%
Andrew Henry run for 12 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
19.7%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+18
19.7%
Chandler Rogers run for 18 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
19.7%
Andrew Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+19
19.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Boogie Knight for 19 yds to the SAlab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
19.7%
Chandler Rogers run for 7 yds to the SAlab 20Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+20
21.7%
Andrew Henry run for 20 yds for a TD (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2Uncategorized
4 plays · 32 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
21.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 1 yd to the SAlab 26Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
21.4%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+17
21.5%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 17 yds to the SAlab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
21.3%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 14 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3FUMBLE
6 plays · 46 yds · 2:0723% → 25%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
23.1%
Malik Jackson run for 11 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
23.2%
Andrew Henry run for 3 yds to the SAlab 44Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
23.1%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+11
23.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Will Derrick for 11 yds to the SAlab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
23.2%
Andrew Henry run for no gain to the SAlab 33Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+21
25.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Will Derrick for 21 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 4:3076% → 75%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
24.3%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 1 yd to the SAlab 39Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+19
24.3%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 19 yds to the LaMon 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
24.0%
BENTLEY, Jake pass to the left incomplete intended for TOLBERT, Jalen broken up by NEWTON, Josh at the ULM2. PENALTY ULM Pass Interference on NEWTON, Josh enforced 15 yards to the ULM27 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
23.7%
Terrion Avery run for 10 yds to the LaMon 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 8
OPP 15
+4
23.7%
Terrion Avery run for 4 yds to the LaMon 11Similar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-10
23.7%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jalen Wayne) to the LaMon 15Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 4
OPP 11
-2
23.7%
Terrion Avery run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 13Similar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+3
24.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 3 yds to the LaMon 10Similar
Q1 4:18
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+10
24.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 10 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4025% → 26%
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
25.2%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Malik Jackson for 4 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
25.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Boogie Knight for 5 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q1 4:18
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-2
25.3%
Andrew Henry run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 32Similar
Q1 2:38
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
25.8%
Devyn McCormick punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the SAlab 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6INT
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:2074% → 72%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
25.6%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
25.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Terrion Avery for 8 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q1 2:38
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
25.6%
Kareem Walker run for 1 yd to the SAlab 29Similar
Q1 2:38
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+3
26.1%
Kareem Walker run for 3 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
26.7%
Kareem Walker run for no gain to the SAlab 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
26.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Kareem Walker for 2 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
27.7%
Jake Bentley pass intercepted return for no gain to the SAlab 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 1:4830% → 36%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
29.6%
Chandler Rogers run for 7 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+13
29.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Boogie Knight for 13 yds to the SAlab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+17
30.0%
Andrew Henry run for 17 yds to the SAlab 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
30.0%
Andrew Henry run for no gain to the SAlab 12Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
30.0%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+12
36.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jared Sparks for 12 yds for a TD (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8FG
7 plays · 55 yds · 3:1766% → 67%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
34.1%
Kareem Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 34Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
34.4%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+55
35.1%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 55 yds to the LaMon 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
31.9%
Kareem Walker run for no gain to the LaMon 11Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+4
31.9%
Jake Bentley run for 4 yds to the LaMon 7Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 6
OPP 7
0
32.7%
Jake Bentley sacked by Sir'Darrius Ellis for 0 yards to the LaMon 10Similar
Q2 9:13
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+28
32.7%
Diego Guajardo 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 3:5034% → 44%
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
33.7%
Chandler Rogers run for 2 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
33.7%
ROGERS, Chandler pass up the middle incomplete intended for DERRICK, Will thrown to the ULM36. PENALTY USA Pass Interference on LEWIS, Kwameh enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the ULM37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
34.3%
Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 32Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+16
33.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jevin Frett for 16 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
35.2%
Andrew Henry run for 3 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+16
35.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Will Derrick for 16 yds to the SAlab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
36.0%
Isaiah Phillips run for 10 yds to the SAlab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-3
36.0%
Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 26Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 13
OPP 26
0
35.7%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:13
3RD & 13
OPP 26
+4
34.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Isaiah Phillips for 4 yds to the SAlab 22Similar
Q2 5:23
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+39
43.6%
Calum Sutherland 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:5958% → 71%
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
42.0%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
42.4%
Bryan Hill run for 3 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+30
42.2%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 30 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
38.9%
Bryan Hill run for 1 yd to the LaMon 31Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+2
39.0%
Bryan Hill run for 2 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+13
40.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 13 yds to the LaMon 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
38.6%
Bryan Hill run for 4 yds to the LaMon 12Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 6
OPP 12
0
40.2%
Bryan Hill run for no gain to the LaMon 12Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+12
29.1%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 12 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 1:0836% → 53%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
36.3%
Chandler Rogers run for 3 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
36.5%
Andrew Henry run for 2 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+16
37.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Boogie Knight for 16 yds to the LaMon 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+20
39.8%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jared Sparks for 20 yds to the SAlab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
41.8%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Zach Jackson for 4 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+8
41.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Zach Jackson for 8 yds to the SAlab 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
41.9%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
41.8%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+13
41.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Boogie Knight for 13 yds to the SAlab 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
41.4%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
52.6%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Boogie Knight for 9 yds for a TD (Calum Sutherland KICK) (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:4352% → 68%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
48.5%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Brandon Crum for 7 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
46.6%
Terrion Avery run for 9 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
46.9%
Terrion Avery run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
50
+6
44.9%
Terrion Avery run for 6 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
45.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 15 yds to the LaMon 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
43.4%
Terrion Avery run for 5 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+4
43.4%
Terrion Avery run for 4 yds to the LaMon 20Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+5
45.0%
Terrion Avery run for 5 yds to the LaMon 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
43.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Brandon Crum for 7 yds to the LaMon 8Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+8
32.5%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 8 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 14DOWNS
8 plays · 41 yds · 1:5440% → 43%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
39.9%
Andrew Henry run for 14 yds to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+21
41.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Malik Jackson for 6 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Keith Gallmon Jr.) to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-15
44.1%
QB Keeper ROGERS, Chandler rush to the left for a gain of 13 yards to the USA27 (LUTER JR., Darrell). PENALTY ULM Personal Foul on JACKSON, Zach enforced 15 yards from the USA39 to the ULM46, from the the spot of the ball when the foul occurred, runner is credited with 1 yards on the play [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 24
OWN 46
+4
41.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jared Sparks for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 20
50
0
41.3%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 20
50
+17
39.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Andrew Henry for 17 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q3 8:12
4TH & 3
OPP 33
-1
42.8%
Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15TD
4 plays · 66 yds · 1:4463% → 80%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
36.8%
Terrion Avery run for no gain to the SAlab 34Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+17
37.5%
Terrion Avery run for 17 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
34.1%
Terrion Avery run for 9 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+40
19.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 40 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 16TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:3124% → 48%
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+38
24.3%
Malik Jackson run for 38 yds to the SAlab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
28.3%
Andrew Henry run for 8 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+3
29.6%
Andrew Henry run for 3 yds to the SAlab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
29.6%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+5
29.5%
Chandler Rogers run for 5 yds to the SAlab 21Similar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+21
48.2%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Fred Lloyd Jr. for 21 yds for a TD (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:1560% → 57%
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
40.0%
Terrion Avery run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 24Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+9
40.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Terrion Avery for 9 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-1
38.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 32Similar
Q3 1:42
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
42.8%
Jack Brooks punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Boogie Knight at the LaMon 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 18TD
2 plays · 82 yds · 0:3545% → 71%
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
45.2%
Andrew Henry run for 1 yd to the LaMon 19Similar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+81
71.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Will Derrick for 81 yds for a TD (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:1934% → 30%
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.7%
Jake Bentley sacked by Caleb Thomas for 0 yards to the SAlab 18Similar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
66.5%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+5
69.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Terrion Avery for 5 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 12
OWN 23
-5
70.4%
Jack Brooks punt for 52 yds , Boogie Knight returns for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1375% → 74%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
74.6%
Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 15Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 15
OWN 15
0
73.9%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+9
72.8%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jared Sparks for 9 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
Q4 13:35
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
73.6%
Devyn McCormick punt for 50 yds, downed at the SAlab 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:3529% → 24%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
71.3%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
72.0%
Jake Bentley sacked by Caleb Thomas and Ty Shelby for 0 yards to the SAlab 16Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 20
OWN 16
+5
73.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 5 yds to the SAlab 21Similar
Q4 12:00
4TH & 15
OWN 21
0
76.5%
Jack Brooks punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Boogie Knight at the LaMon 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 22FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 5:3278% → 91%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
78.0%
Andrew Henry run for no gain to the LaMon 26Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
77.4%
Chandler Rogers run for 4 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+11
76.8%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Zach Jackson for 11 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
80.0%
Chandler Rogers run for 5 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+2
80.2%
Chandler Rogers run for 2 yds to the LaMon 48Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+23
79.2%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jevin Frett for 23 yds to the SAlab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
81.2%
Kadyn Roach run for no gain to the SAlab 29Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
81.1%
Chandler Rogers run for no gain to the SAlab 29Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+6
79.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Will Derrick for 6 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q4 6:28
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+40
91.0%
Calum Sutherland 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 23MISSED FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 4:5911% → 8%
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
88.9%
BENTLEY, Jake pass to the right incomplete intended for TOLBERT, Jalen thrown to the ULM50. PENALTY ULM Pass Interference on JOHNSON, Jabari enforced 15 yards to the USA35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
87.5%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Terrion Avery for 5 yds to the SAlab 40Similar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
86.5%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for no gain to the SAlab 40Similar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+3
86.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Terrion Avery for 3 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q4 6:21
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+4
87.5%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 4 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
86.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Terrion Avery for 12 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
85.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Terrion Avery for 6 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+9
83.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 9 yds to the LaMon 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
83.7%
Jake Bentley sacked by Quae Drake and Seth Mason for 0 yards to the LaMon 35Similar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 19
OPP 35
0
85.2%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 19
OPP 35
+14
87.3%
Jake Bentley run for 14 yds to the LaMon 21Similar
Q4 1:22
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+39
92.3%
Diego Guajardo 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:1898% → 98%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
98.3%
Andrew Henry run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 19Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+9
98.0%
Andrew Henry run for 9 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q4 1:06
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+1
98.5%
Andrew Henry run for 1 yd to the LaMon 29Similar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
98.3%
Devyn McCormick punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the SAlab 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 25DOWNS
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:444% → 3%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
96.5%
Jake Bentley run for 1 yd to the SAlab 37Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
96.6%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
96.8%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:16
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
97.2%
Jake Bentley pass intercepted return for no gain to the LaMon 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:07
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Will Derrick for 81 yds for a TD (Calum Sutherland KICK)
+26.3
TD · Q3 3:57
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Fred Lloyd Jr. for 21 yds for a TD (Calum Sutherland KICK)
+18.7
TD · Q3 6:28
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 40 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
-14.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com