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TROY

Troy 31 at Texas State 28

TXST
2021 · Week 7 · Oct 16, 2021 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:55 · Luke Magliozzi punt for 43 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 147Pregame prior−3.9Home team on offense+3.6Score differential+0.9Garbage-time factor+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:18: Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 75 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +6.6 pts (now 34%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:19: Kimani Vidal 1 Yd Run (Brooks Buce Kick) — TROY win probability +11.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:32: Ashtyn Hawkins 2 Yd pass from Brady McBride (Seth Keller Kick) — TXST win probability +20.1 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q3 1:09: Brady McBride pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 21 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +23.7 pts (now 67%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:18: Keyshawn Swanson 33 Yd Interception Return (Brooks Buce Kick) — TROY win probability +32.7 pts (now 61%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TROY made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 11:45TXST 4th & 17 at TXST 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:47TROY 4th & 8 at TXST 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    65.0%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:40TXST 4th & 3 at TROY 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    34.4%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:10TXST 4th & 1 at TROY 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    35.1%−0.6
    47% to make
    Punt
    35.0%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:32TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:43TROY 4th & 14 at TROY 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:43TROY 4th & 14 at TROY 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:01TROY 4th & 20 at TXST 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−1.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    61.5%−0.9
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:01TROY 4th & 15 at TXST 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    61.8%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:08TXST 4th & 10 at TROY 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00TROY 4th & 2 at TXST 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    60.6%−2.6
    34% to make
    Punt
    61.4%−1.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:33TROY 4th & 1 at TXST 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    60.1%−3.6
    58% to make
    Punt
    52.7%−11.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:30TROY 4th & 7 at TXST 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:55TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 49, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%−1.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:12TXST 4th & 3 at TROY 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    35.9%−3.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 5:42TROY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:18TXST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:58TROY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:18TXST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:19TROY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:32TXST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:09TXST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:18TROY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−1.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 3:1528% → 29%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
27.6%
Brady McBride run for 3 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-6
27.6%
Brady McBride sacked by TJ Harris for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 22Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+15
27.6%
McBride,Brady sacked for loss of 7 yards to the TXS15 (Griffin,Elgin) PENALTY TRY Personal Foul (Jibunor,Richard) 15 yards from TXS22 to TXS37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-12
27.6%
Brady McBride sacked by Richard Jibunor for a loss of 12 yards to the TexSt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 25
+3
27.6%
Brady McBride run for 3 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 28
+2
27.6%
Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 2 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q1 11:45
4TH & 17
OWN 30
0
28.9%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2FG
8 plays · 54 yds · 1:5871% → 70%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
29.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 5 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+15
28.9%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
28.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to AJ Lewis for 7 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+21
28.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 21 yds to the TexSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
28.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
28.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Tez JohnsonSimilar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 8
OPP 17
0
28.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to TJ HarrisSimilar
Q1 9:47
4TH & 8
OPP 17
+34
29.6%
Brooks Buce 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3DOWNS
11 plays · 33 yds · 3:3030% → 31%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
29.7%
Brock Sturges run for 7 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+6
30.1%
Brock Sturges run for 6 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
30.1%
Brock Sturges run for 3 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+3
30.1%
Brady McBride pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 3 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+1
30.1%
Brock Sturges run for 1 yd to the Troy 47Similar
Q1 9:40
4TH & 3
OPP 47
+4
29.8%
Brady McBride pass complete to Brock Sturges for 4 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
30.2%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Javen BanksSimilar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
30.2%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+9
30.0%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jahmyl Jeter for 9 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 1
OPP 34
0
31.3%
Jahmyl Jeter run for no gain to the Troy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4TD
3 plays · 66 yds · 0:2869% → 72%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
30.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 6 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+15
30.4%
PENALTY TXS Personal Foul (Childress,Zion) 15 yards from TRY40 to TXS45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
27.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 45 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:0429% → 27%
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
28.5%
Calvin Hill run for no gain to the TexSt 27Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+1
28.4%
Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 1 yd to the TexSt 28Similar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+1
28.1%
Brady McBride run for 1 yd to the TexSt 29Similar
Q1 3:32
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
27.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:4972% → 71%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
28.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+3
28.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 3 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+3
28.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 3 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q1 1:43
4TH & 14
OWN 27
+12
28.7%
Luke Magliozzi punt blocked by Caleb Twyford blocked by Caleb TwyfordSimilar
Q1 1:43
4TH & 14
OWN 27
+12
28.7%
Luke Magliozzi punt blocked by Caleb Twyford blocked by Caleb TwyfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7TD
6 plays · 39 yds · 1:2528% → 35%
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
28.4%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Jackson LanamSimilar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
28.3%
Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for no gain to the Troy 39Similar
Q1 1:43
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+18
28.0%
Brady McBride pass complete to Rontavious Groves for 18 yds to the Troy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+14
28.8%
Brock Sturges run for 14 yds to the Troy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
28.8%
McBride,Brady pass incomplete to Barbee,Marcell PENALTY TRY Pass Interference (Palmer,Taiyon) 5 yards from TRY07 to TRY02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
34.8%
Brock Sturges run for 2 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2067% → 73%
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
32.7%
B.J. Smith run for 14 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
31.6%
B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+1
31.4%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+12
31.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 12 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
31.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 7 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+3
31.1%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
27.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 33 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4027% → 34%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.0%
Calvin Hill run for no gain to the TexSt 25Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+75
33.6%
Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 75 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10PUNT
16 plays · 36 yds · 5:1767% → 65%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
33.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 12 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
32.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to AJ Lewis for 5 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+4
32.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+4
32.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
50
0
31.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Reggie ToddSimilar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 10
50
+9
32.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 9 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+7
31.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 7 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
31.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Tez JohnsonSimilar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
31.5%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the TexSt 34Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+5
32.2%
Gunnar Watson run for 5 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 10
OPP 34
0
33.5%
TROY Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kimani Vidal) declinedSimilar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 10
OPP 34
-5
33.5%
PENALTY TRY Delay Of Game (Watson,Gunnar) 5 yards from TXS34 to TXS39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 15
OPP 39
0
33.9%
TROY Penalty, Delay Of Game (Kimani Vidal) declinedSimilar
Q2 7:01
4TH & 20
OPP 44
0
34.7%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 37 ydsSimilar
Q2 7:01
4TH & 15
OPP 39
0
34.7%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11PUNT
15 plays · 45 yds · 5:5334% → 34%
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
33.8%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 7 yds to the TexSt 14Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 3
OWN 14
+3
34.0%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 3 yds to the TexSt 11Similar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+18
32.3%
Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 18 yds to the TexSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
33.7%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 5 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+4
34.8%
Brady McBride run for 4 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+3
35.0%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 3 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
35.6%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jahmyl Jeter for 7 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+1
36.1%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd to the TexSt 49Similar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+3
35.2%
Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 3 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-7
36.3%
Brady McBride sacked by Richard Jibunor for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSt 45Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 17
OWN 45
-5
34.0%
PENALTY TXS Illegal Snap (Fletcher,Charles) 5 yards from TXS45 to TXS40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 22
OWN 40
+7
33.9%
Calvin Hill run for 7 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 15
OWN 47
+5
33.1%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q2 1:08
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
34.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 18 yds · 1:0866% → 65%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
34.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 6Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+14
34.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 14 yds to the Troy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13DOWNS
14 plays · 46 yds · 6:2765% → 66%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
34.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the Troy 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
34.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 6 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
34.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 9 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
32.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 8 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+3
32.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
32.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+5
32.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+1
32.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the TexSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+2
34.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
32.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+7
32.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deyunkrea Lewis for 7 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 29
0
32.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for no gain to the TexSt 29Similar
Q3 8:33
4TH & 1
OPP 29
0
34.5%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the TexSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14FUMBLE
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0838% → 39%
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
38.0%
Brady McBride pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 6 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+7
40.2%
Brock Sturges run for 7 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
40.8%
Brock Sturges run for 2 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+4
39.0%
run for 4 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15TD
4 plays · 36 yds · 1:0667% → 80%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
32.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+23
31.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deyunkrea Lewis for 23 yds to the TexSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
31.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 10 yds to the TexSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
19.6%
Kimani Vidal 1 Yd Run (Brooks Buce Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:4222% → 46%
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
22.0%
Calvin Hill run for no gain to the TexSt 30Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
21.6%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Donnovan MoorerSimilar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+26
20.6%
Brady McBride pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 26 yds to the TEXSTATE 44 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, Defensive Offside (Elijah Culp) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+20
24.2%
Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 20 yds to the Troy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+16
25.5%
Brady McBride run for 16 yds to the Troy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
25.5%
Calvin Hill run for 6 yds to the Troy 2Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
45.6%
Ashtyn Hawkins 2 Yd pass from Brady McBride (Seth Keller Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17TD
8 plays · 54 yds · 2:2243% → 67%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
43.1%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
41.0%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 3 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+15
41.6%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 15 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
44.1%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 12
OPP 38
+9
43.4%
Brady McBride pass complete to Rontavious Groves for 9 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+8
43.5%
Brady McBride pass complete to Drue Jackson for 8 yds to the Troy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
67.2%
Brady McBride pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 21 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 2:3942% → 39%
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
58.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to AJ Lewis for 4 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
55.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
-5
56.2%
PENALTY TRY False Start (Lewis,AJ) 5 yards from TRY43 to TRY38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+10
59.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 10 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
55.6%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
54.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to B.J. SmithSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
55.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Deshon StoudemireSimilar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
60.9%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Rontavious Groves at the TexSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19INT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:0464% → 64%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
63.8%
Brock Sturges run for 5 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+4
63.9%
Brock Sturges run for 4 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+15
62.8%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 15 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
65.6%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-5
64.8%
Brady McBride sacked by TJ Harris for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 31Similar
Q4 11:26
3RD & 15
OWN 31
0
63.5%
Brady McBride pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3141% → 38%
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
59.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Luke WhittemoreSimilar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
60.4%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q4 11:26
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+3
60.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 3 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q4 9:55
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
61.8%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21INT TD
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:3766% → 39%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
66.1%
Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 7 yds to the TexSt 15Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+4
66.7%
Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the TexSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
67.0%
Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+4
67.2%
Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q4 8:18
3RD & 2
OWN 27
-33
38.6%
Keyshawn Swanson 33 Yd Interception Return (Brooks Buce Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22INT
8 plays · 22 yds · 1:4640% → 44%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
40.4%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 10 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
43.4%
Brock Sturges run for 2 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
43.7%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+5
40.1%
Brady McBride run for 5 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q4 8:12
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
41.8%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Trevis Graham Jr.Similar
Q4 8:12
4TH & 3
OPP 49
+5
41.8%
McBride,Brady pass incomplete to Graham, Jr.,Trevis PENALTY TRY Offside (Choloh,Will) 5 yards from TRY49 to TRY44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-15
44.1%
Brady McBride pass intercepted TROY Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Will Choloh) to the Troy 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23END OF GAME
15 plays · 68 yds · 6:2670% → 95%
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
30.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+23
29.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 23 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
26.8%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+6
26.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 6 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
26.0%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 7
OPP 39
-2
26.1%
Gunnar Watson sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 41Similar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+23
26.9%
B.J. Smith run for 13 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jordan Revels) to the TexSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
15.2%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the TexSt 14Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+3
10.5%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the TexSt 11Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+6
10.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the TexSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
9.5%
run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 8Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
4.9%
run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:18
Keyshawn Swanson 33 Yd Interception Return (Brooks Buce Kick)
-32.7
TD · Q3 1:09
Brady McBride pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 21 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)
+23.7
TD · Q3 3:32
Ashtyn Hawkins 2 Yd pass from Brady McBride (Seth Keller Kick)
+20.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com