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GASO

Georgia Southern 14 at South Alabama 41

USA
2021 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2021 · Hancock Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreGASO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:01 · Anthony Beck II punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jalen Tolbert at the SAlab 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 25Home team on offense+1.5Score differential+0.3Pregame prior+8.9Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:00: Jake Bentley 6 Yd Run (Diego Guajardo Kick) — USA win probability +8.8 pts (now 77%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:29: Jalen Tolbert 40 Yd pass from Jake Bentley (Diego Guajardo Kick) — USA win probability +7.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:08: Jalen Wayne 5 Yd pass from Jake Bentley (Diego Guajardo Kick) — USA win probability +4.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:00: J.D. King 2 Yd Run (Justin Tomlin Pass to Amare Jones for Two-Point Conversion) — GASO win probability +7.1 pts (now 12%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:41: Lincoln Sefcik 5 Yd pass from Jake Bentley (Diego Guajardo Kick) — USA win probability +3.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6GASO made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 8:53GASO 4th & 6 at GASO 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:24USA 4th & 9 at USA 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:01GASO 4th & 10 at GASO 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:03USA 4th & 12 at GASO 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    60.1%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:12GASO 4th & 18 at GASO 9, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−1.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:35GASO 4th & 11 at GASO 24, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:59GASO 4th & 1 at USA 41, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    4.7%−0.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:53USA 4th & 20 at USA 15, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−1.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00GASO 4th & 6 at USA 45, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    9.0%−1.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    10.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:22GASO 4th & 14 at USA 27, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−0.8
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−2.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:48USA 4th & 9 at USA 40, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:18GASO 4th & 11 at GASO 38, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:50GASO 4th & 9 at USA 17, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    -1.0%−1.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:07USA 4th & 4 at GASO 25, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.4%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    97.6%−1.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:44GASO 4th & 22 at GASO 13, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:55USA 4th & 4 at GASO 13, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.1%−<0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    98.6%−0.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:04GASO 4th & 21 at USA 46, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−0.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    23% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5GASO made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 10:16USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:00USA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:29USA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:08USA Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:00GASO Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    8.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:41USA Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1TD
12 plays · 84 yds · 4:3161% → 63%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
60.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 9 yds to the SAlab 25Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+3
60.6%
Terrion Avery run for 3 yds to the SAlab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
60.6%
Jake Bentley run for 6 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+5
60.7%
Terrion Avery run for 5 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
60.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 13 yds to the GeoSo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+20
60.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 20 yds to the GeoSo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
61.1%
Terrion Avery run for 12 yds to the GeoSo 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
61.1%
Terrion Avery run for 11 yds to the GeoSo 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 0
OPP 5
-5
61.3%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Hadon Merchant) to the GeoSo 10Similar
Q1 10:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
61.2%
Bryan Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 12Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
62.8%
Jake Bentley 12 Yd Run (Diego Guajardo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1038% → 37%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
62.2%
J.D. King run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 6
OWN 21
0
62.3%
J.D. King run for no gain to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 6
OWN 21
0
62.9%
Justin Tomlin pass incomplete to Jjay Mcafee, broken up by Darrell Luter Jr.Similar
Q1 8:53
4TH & 6
OWN 21
0
63.1%
Anthony Beck II punt for 59 yds, downed at the SAlab 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2163% → 63%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
62.8%
Terrion Avery run for no gain to the SAlab 20Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
63.0%
Terrion Avery run for 1 yd to the SAlab 21Similar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
62.9%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Jalen Tolbert, broken up by Seth RobertsonSimilar
Q1 7:24
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+2
62.7%
Jack Brooks punt for 42 yds , Khaleb Hood returns for 2 yds to the GeoSo 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1537% → 36%
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
62.9%
Logan Wright run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-3
62.8%
Justin Tomlin run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
63.6%
Justin Tomlin pass incomplete to Sam Kenerson, broken up by Darrell Luter Jr.Similar
Q1 6:01
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
64.0%
Anthony Beck II punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jalen Tolbert at the SAlab 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5FG
11 plays · 61 yds · 3:5364% → 65%
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
63.8%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Jalen TolbertSimilar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+11
63.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 11 yds to the SAlab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
64.1%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Jalen TolbertSimilar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
64.1%
Bryan Hill run for 2 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+37
64.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 37 yds to the GeoSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
65.6%
Bryan Hill run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+12
65.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 12 yds to the GeoSo 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-9
66.0%
Jake Bentley sacked by AJ Watkins for a loss of 9 yards to the GeoSo 31 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jake Bentley) to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 19
OPP 31
+7
65.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 7 yds to the GeoSo 24Similar
Q1 2:09
3RD & 12
OPP 24
0
65.4%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Jalen Tolbert, broken up by NaJee ThompsonSimilar
Q1 2:03
4TH & 12
OPP 24
+42
65.3%
Diego Guajardo 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:4034% → 33%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
65.7%
J.D. King run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 14Similar
Q1 1:23
3RD & 12
OWN 14
-5
66.5%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, False Start (Logan Langemeier) to the GeoSo 9Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 12
OWN 14
0
66.0%
Cam Ransom pass incomplete to Beau JohnsonSimilar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 18
OWN 9
0
66.7%
Cam Ransom pass incomplete to Khaleb HoodSimilar
Q1 1:12
4TH & 18
OWN 9
0
67.0%
Anthony Beck II punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jalen Wayne at the SAlab 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:0367% → 77%
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+26
67.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 26 yds to the GeoSo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
67.4%
Terrion Avery run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q1 0:02
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+1
67.7%
Terrion Avery run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+16
67.2%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Brandon Crum for 16 yds to the GeoSo 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
67.8%
Terrion Avery run for no gain to the GeoSo 6Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
68.1%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
76.8%
Jake Bentley 6 Yd Run (Diego Guajardo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1425% → 24%
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
75.2%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Beau Johnson for 2 yds to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
75.6%
Justin Tomlin run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
76.0%
Justin Tomlin pass intercepted CJ Rias return for no gain to the GeoSo 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9TD
1 play · 40 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
83.9%
Jalen Tolbert 40 Yd pass from Jake Bentley (Diego Guajardo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 1:4917% → 16%
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
82.6%
Gerald Green run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-9
82.8%
Gerald Green run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 29 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
83.6%
Justin Tomlin run for no gain to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
84.2%
Justin Tomlin pass incomplete to Sam Kenerson, broken up by Ryan MeltonSimilar
Q2 10:44
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+5
84.3%
Beck II, Anthony punt 32 yards to the SOUTHALA49, downed, PENALTY SOUTHALA running into kicker 5 yards to the GASOUTHERN24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:35
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
84.4%
Anthony Beck II punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jalen Tolbert at the SAlab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 1:1985% → 90%
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
85.3%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 3 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+62
86.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jay'juan Townsend for 62 yds to the GeoSo 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
90.3%
Jalen Wayne 5 Yd pass from Jake Bentley (Diego Guajardo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 7:019% → 12%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
90.9%
Justin Tomlin run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
90.5%
Justin Tomlin run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
91.0%
Logan Wright run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
91.8%
Logan Wright run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+6
92.0%
Logan Wright run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+5
94.1%
Logan Wright run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
50
0
94.8%
Justin Tomlin pass incomplete to Derwin Burgess Jr.Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 10
50
-2
94.9%
Logan Wright run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 12
OWN 48
+11
95.6%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Emil Smith for 11 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q2 3:59
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+10
95.2%
Khaleb Hood run for 10 yds to the SAlab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
95.4%
Justin Tomlin run for 2 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+25
95.5%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Amare Jones for 25 yds to the SAlab 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
95.4%
Cam Ransom run for 2 yds to the SAlab 2Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
95.6%
Logan Wright run for no gain to the SAlab 2Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
88.0%
J.D. King 2 Yd Run (Justin Tomlin Pass to Amare Jones for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13PUNT
7 plays · -10 yds · 1:0092% → 93%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
91.5%
Bryan Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 24Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
91.8%
Bryan Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 23Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-8
92.4%
Jake Bentley sacked by Justin Ellis for a loss of 8 yards to the SAlab 15Similar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
92.8%
Jack Brooks punt for 46 yds, downed at the GeoSo 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 16 yds · 0:4510% → 6%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
90.5%
Logan Wright run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+2
90.6%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Amare Jones for 2 yds to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+7
90.6%
Justin Tomlin run for 7 yds to the SAlab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
90.2%
Justin Tomlin pass incomplete to Beau JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
90.5%
Justin Tomlin pass incomplete to Jjay McafeeSimilar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-5
90.6%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, False Start (Khalil Crowder) to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 15
OWN 46
+9
91.4%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Emil Smith for 9 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
93.6%
Justin Tomlin pass incomplete, broken up by Jalen WayneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 15FG
12 plays · 48 yds · 4:349% → 7%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.2%
Logan Wright run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
91.0%
Logan Wright run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q3 13:54
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+23
91.3%
Logan Wright run for 23 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
91.3%
Logan Wright run for 3 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+2
91.8%
Gerald Green run for 2 yds to the SAlab 40Similar
Q3 12:04
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+17
92.4%
Cam Ransom pass complete to Amare Jones for 17 yds to the SAlab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
92.1%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, False Start (Caleb Kelly) to the SAlab 28Similar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 15
OPP 28
0
92.7%
Cam Ransom pass incomplete to Sam KenersonSimilar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 15
OPP 28
+1
92.9%
Cam Ransom run for 1 yd to the SAlab 27Similar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 14
OPP 27
0
93.6%
Cam Ransom pass incomplete to Amare Jones, broken up by Kwameh LewisSimilar
Q3 10:22
4TH & 14
OPP 27
+44
93.5%
Alex Raynor 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:1995% → 95%
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
94.7%
Terrion Avery run for 4 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+3
94.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 3 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+9
94.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 9 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
94.9%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Jalen Tolbert, broken up by Anthony WilsonSimilar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
94.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jacob Hopper for 6 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q3 7:56
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
95.2%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Jalen TolbertSimilar
Q3 7:56
4TH & 4
OWN 45
-5
94.8%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 40Similar
Q3 7:48
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
94.7%
Jack Brooks punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSo 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:246% → 5%
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
94.5%
J.D. King run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 2
OWN 47
-9
94.5%
J.D. King run for a loss of 9 yards to the GeoSo 38 J.D. King fumbled, forced by Brock Higdon, recovered by GeoSo Aaron DowdellSimilar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 11
OWN 38
0
95.2%
Cam Ransom pass incomplete to Jjay McafeeSimilar
Q3 6:18
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
95.3%
Anthony Beck II punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jalen Tolbert at the SAlab 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18TD
5 plays · 82 yds · 2:3096% → 100%
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
95.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 11 yds to the SAlab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
95.8%
Bryan Hill run for 6 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+2
95.8%
Bryan Hill run for 2 yds to the SAlab 37Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+58
96.0%
Bryan Hill run for 58 yds to the GeoSo 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.5%
Lincoln Sefcik 5 Yd pass from Jake Bentley (Diego Guajardo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 19FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 3:420% → 2%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.6%
Logan Wright run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
99.6%
Cam Ransom pass incomplete to Derwin Burgess Jr., broken up by A.J. DeShazor Jr.Similar
Q3 2:47
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+46
99.6%
Cam Ransom pass complete to Amare Jones for 46 yds to the SAlab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
99.7%
Gerald Green run for 5 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+2
99.7%
Gerald Green run for 2 yds to the SAlab 21Similar
Q3 1:03
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+3
99.7%
Cam Ransom run for 3 yds to the SAlab 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
99.7%
Logan Wright run for 3 yds to the SAlab 15Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 15
-2
99.7%
Cam Ransom sacked by Jamall Hickbottom for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 17Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 9
OPP 17
0
99.8%
Cam Ransom pass incomplete to Amare Jones, broken up by Keith Gallmon Jr.Similar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+34
98.0%
Alex Raynor 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 9
OWN 35
-5
98.1%
Williams, Britton kickoff 11 yards to the GASOUTHERN46, on-side kick, recovered by GASOUTHERN on GASOUTHERN46, PENALTY GASOUTHERN offside 5 yards to the GASOUTHERN30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20MISSED FG
8 plays · 50 yds · 3:3398% → 99%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 4 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
98.3%
AJ Phillips run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 28Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+41
98.3%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 41 yds to the GeoSo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
98.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 1 yd to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+5
98.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 5 yds to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 4
OPP 25
0
98.7%
Bentley, Jake pass complete to Wayne, Jalen for 25 yards to the GASOUTHERN0, PENALTY SOUTHALA illegal touching (Wayne, Jalen) 0 yards to the GASOUTHERN25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:07
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+43
98.5%
Diego Guajardo 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 2:121% → 1%
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.7%
Cam Ransom run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-9
98.7%
Cam Ransom sacked by Lamondre Brooks and Christian Bell for a loss of 9 yards to the GeoSo 17Similar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 18
OWN 17
-4
98.9%
Cam Ransom sacked by CJ Rias for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSo 13Similar
Q4 8:44
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
98.9%
Anthony Beck II punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jalen Tolbert at the SAlab 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22FG
7 plays · 49 yds · 3:4399% → 100%
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.0%
AJ Phillips run for no gain to the SAlab 38Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
99.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Cade Sutherland for 5 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q4 7:21
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+38
99.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 38 yds to the GeoSo 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
99.1%
Jake Bentley run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 18Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+3
99.2%
AJ Phillips run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 15Similar
Q4 5:38
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+2
99.2%
AJ Phillips run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 13Similar
Q4 4:55
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+31
99.9%
Diego Guajardo 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:420% → 0%
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.9%
Jalen White run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+10
99.9%
Cam Ransom run for 10 yds to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q4 3:41
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+32
99.9%
Cam Ransom run for 32 yds to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Cam Ransom pass incomplete to Darius LewisSimilar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-11
99.9%
Cam Ransom sacked by Terry Perry for a loss of 11 yards to the SAlab 46Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 21
OPP 46
0
100.0%
Cam Ransom pass incomplete to Gerald GreenSimilar
Q4 2:04
4TH & 21
OPP 46
0
100.0%
Cam Ransom pass incomplete to Amare JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 24END OF GAME
6 plays · 36 yds · 1:43100% → 100%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
99.9%
Jared Wilson run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 49Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+16
100.0%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jacob Hopper for 16 yds to the GeoSo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
100.0%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Todd JusticeSimilar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+12
100.0%
Jared Wilson run for 12 yds to the GeoSo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
100.0%
Desmond Trotter run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 20Similar
Q4 0:16
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+2
100.0%
Jared Wilson run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:00
Jake Bentley 6 Yd Run (Diego Guajardo Kick)
+8.8
TD · Q2 12:29
Jalen Tolbert 40 Yd pass from Jake Bentley (Diego Guajardo Kick)
+7.9
TD · Q2 2:00
J.D. King 2 Yd Run (Justin Tomlin Pass to Amare Jones for Two-Point Conversion)
-7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com