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USA

South Alabama 31 at Texas State 33

TXST
2021 · Week 6 · Oct 9, 2021 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTQ2TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:00 · S.Keller 25 yard field goal attempt is no good, Center-K.Olivia, Holder-D.Nunez.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTQ2Play 167Home team on offense+2.4Pregame prior−7.3Garbage-time factor−0.5Score differential−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 14:19: A.Phillips rushed to TXST End Zone for 5 yards. A.Phillips for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — USA win probability +12.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 7:26: B.McBride pass complete to SAB 13. Catch made by M.Barbee at SAB 13. Gain of 13 yards. M.Barbee for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — TXST win probability +22.2 pts (now 32%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 0:18: J.Jeter rushed to SAB End Zone for 1 yards. J.Jeter for 1 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — TXST win probability +37.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: J.Bentley pass complete to TXST 12. Catch made by J.Tolbert at TXST 12. Gain of 12 yards. J.Tolbert for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — USA win probability +28.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: B.Sturges rushed to SAB End Zone for 4 yards. B.Sturges for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — TXST win probability +37.1 pts (now 68%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8USA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 12:55USA 4th & 9 at USA 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:16TXST 4th & 19 at TXST 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−0.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:11USA 4th & 2 at TXST 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    53.6%−0.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    53.7%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:13USA 4th & 6 at TXST 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    48.9%−2.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:17USA 4th & 9 at TXST 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    50.6%−3.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:36TXST 4th & 3 at USA 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    43.2%−2.0
    30% to make
    Punt
    43.6%−1.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:40TXST 4th & 6 at USA 42, down 10
    Close callPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    27.7%−1.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:03TXST 4th & 11 at USA 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−1.8
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    16.2%−7.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:40USA 4th & 1 at USA 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    71.5%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:04TXST 4th & 5 at USA 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    12.5%−0.8
    42% to make
    Punt
    11.6%−1.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:18TXST 4th & 4 at USA 19, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.6%−1.0
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    9.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−5.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:26USA 4th & 12 at USA 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−2.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:18TXST 4th & 1 at USA 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    11.5%−22.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    8.6%−25.2
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:00TXST 4th & 8 at USA 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.6%
    90% to make
    Punt
    43.5%−7.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 14:13TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 15:00USA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:05USA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:19USA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:26TXST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.0%−1.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:18TXST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.8%−7.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1TD
3 plays · 76 yds · 0:4236% → 36%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
35.7%
C.Hill rushed to TXST 28 for 4 yards. Tackled by C.Coleman; W.Thomas at TXST 28.Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+15
35.9%
B.McBride pass complete to TXST 28. Catch made by M.Barbee at TXST 28. Gain of 15 yards. Tackled by D.Rockette at TXST 43.Similar
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
36.3%
B.McBride pass complete to TXST 43. Catch made by J.Banks at TXST 43. Gain of 57 yards. J.Banks for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0964% → 63%
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
36.4%
B.Hill rushed to SAB 28 for 3 yards. Tackled by M.Coleman; S.Tupou at SAB 28.Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
36.7%
B.Hill rushed to SAB 26 for -2 yards. Tackled by TXST at SAB 26.Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
37.2%
J.Bentley steps back to pass. J.Bentley pass incomplete intended for B.Crum.Similar
Q1 12:55
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+46
37.4%
J.Brooks punts 46 yards to TXST 28, Center-T.Drosos. Out of bounds.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 2:3037% → 39%
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
37.4%
B.Sturges rushed to TXST 33 for 5 yards. Tackled by K.Gallmon; W.Thomas at TXST 33.Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
37.8%
B.McBride steps back to pass. B.McBride pass incomplete intended for J.Banks. PENALTY on SAB-SAB, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
37.9%
B.McBride pass complete to TXST 38. Catch made by M.Barbee at TXST 38. Gain of 4 yards. Tackled by SAB at TXST 42.Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+2
38.5%
B.Sturges rushed to TXST 44 for 2 yards. Tackled by A.DeShazor; C.Bell at TXST 44.Similar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
38.9%
PENALTY on TXST-K.Hergel, False Start, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q1 10:52
3RD & 9
OWN 39
-10
38.9%
B.McBride steps back to pass. B.McBride sacked at TXST 29 for -10 yards (J.Brooks)Similar
Q1 10:16
4TH & 19
OWN 29
+37
38.9%
S.O'Kelly punts 37 yards to SAB 34, Center-K.Olivia. Downed by TXST.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4MISSED FG
14 plays · 56 yds · 6:5061% → 56%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
39.2%
J.Bentley pass complete to SAB 34. Catch made by C.Lacy at SAB 34. Gain of 8 yards. Tackled by T.Lefeged at SAB 42.Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 2
OWN 42
-3
39.2%
J.Bentley steps back to pass. J.Bentley sacked at SAB 39 for -3 yards (J.Revels; S.Obiang)Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+12
40.0%
J.Bentley pass complete to SAB 39. Catch made by L.Sefcik at SAB 39. Gain of 12 yards. Tackled by M.Coleman; T.Spears at TXST 49.Similar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
39.7%
C.Lacy rushed to TXST 44 for 5 yards. Tackled by N.Ezidore at TXST 44.Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
40.0%
B.Hill rushed to TXST 44 for 0 yards. Tackled by M.Coleman; J.Revels at TXST 44.Similar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+3
40.5%
J.Bentley pass complete to TXST 44. Catch made by J.Tolbert at TXST 44. Gain of 3 yards. Tackled by T.Lefeged at TXST 41.Similar
Q1 7:11
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+14
41.2%
J.Bentley pass complete to TXST 41. Catch made by L.Sefcik at TXST 41. Gain of 14 yards. Tackled by T.Lefeged at TXST 27.Similar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
40.8%
PENALTY on SAB-B.Hill, False Start, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 15
OPP 32
+6
41.3%
J.Bentley pass complete to TXST 32. Catch made by J.Wayne at TXST 32. Gain of 6 yards. Tackled by E.Sutton at TXST 26.Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+12
41.4%
B.Hill rushed to TXST 14 for 12 yards. Tackled by S.Tupou; Z.Childress at TXST 14.Similar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
41.6%
B.Hill rushed to TXST 12 for 2 yards. Tackled by N.Ezidore; S.Tupou at TXST 12.Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+2
41.9%
B.Hill rushed to TXST 10 for 2 yards. Tackled by S.Tupou; S.Obiang at TXST 10.Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
42.9%
B.Hill rushed to TXST 10 for 0 yards. Tackled by M.Coleman; C.Patton at TXST 10.Similar
Q1 3:13
4TH & 6
OPP 10
0
44.1%
D.Guajardo 28 yard field goal attempt is no good, Center-T.Drosos, Holder-J.Martin.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5INT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:4345% → 46%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+28
45.1%
B.McBride pass complete to TXST 20. Catch made by J.Banks at TXST 20. Gain of 28 yards. Tackled by SAB at TXST 48.Similar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
46.1%
B.McBride steps back to pass. B.McBride pass incomplete intended for TXST. PENALTY on TXST-L.Dobson, Offensive Facemask, 15 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 25
OWN 33
0
45.2%
B.McBride pass complete to TXST 33. Catch made by C.Hill at TXST 33. Gain of 0 yards. Tackled by A.DeShazor; S.Steele at TXST 33.Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 25
OWN 33
+7
45.5%
B.McBride scrambles to TXST 40 for 7 yards. Tackled by S.Jennings at TXST 40.Similar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 18
OWN 40
+19
45.9%
B.McBride pass INTERCEPTED at SAB 38. Intercepted by D.Luter at SAB 38. Tackled by C.Hill at TXST 43.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6TD
4 plays · 43 yds · 0:5556% → 61%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+31
44.4%
J.Bentley pass complete to TXST 43. Catch made by J.Wayne at TXST 43. Gain of 31 yards. Tackled by C.Mills at TXST 12.Similar
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
43.8%
A.Phillips rushed to TXST 6 for 6 yards. Tackled by D.Mask at TXST 6.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+6
38.6%
A.Phillips rushed to TXST End Zone for 6 yards. A.Phillips for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7INT
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:4542% → 46%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
41.7%
J.Jeter rushed to TXST 28 for 3 yards. Tackled by Z.Chapman; C.Henderson at TXST 28.Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
42.0%
B.McBride pass complete to TXST 28. Catch made by J.Lanam at TXST 28. Gain of 2 yards. Tackled by A.DeShazor at TXST 30.Similar
Q2 13:52
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
41.7%
B.McBride steps back to pass. B.McBride pass incomplete intended for J.Lanam. PENALTY on SAB-C.Rias, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
43.5%
B.McBride pass complete to TXST 45. Catch made by C.Speights at TXST 45. Gain of 4 yards. Tackled by C.Coleman at TXST 49.Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 6
OWN 49
-1
43.9%
B.McBride pass complete to TXST 49. Catch made by J.Jeter at TXST 49. Gain of -1 yards. Tackled by K.Gallmon at TXST 48.Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
43.3%
B.McBride pass INTERCEPTED at SAB 10. Intercepted by D.Flenord at SAB 10. Tackled by TXST at SAB 15. PENALTY on SAB-C.Rias, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+29
44.1%
J.Jeter rushed to SAB 18 for 29 yards. Tackled by A.DeShazor at SAB 18.Similar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
45.3%
B.McBride pass complete to SAB 18. Catch made by M.Hilts at SAB 18. Gain of 0 yards. Tackled by SAB at SAB 18.Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-40
45.7%
B.McBride pass INTERCEPTED at SAB 3. Intercepted by T.Young at SAB 3. Tackled by B.McBride at SAB 43.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 2:3660% → 60%
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
40.5%
A.Phillips rushed to SAB 49 for 6 yards. Tackled by K.Rodgers; C.Patton at SAB 49.Similar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+6
40.3%
J.Bentley pass complete to SAB 49. Catch made by A.Phillips at SAB 49. Gain of 6 yards. Tackled by K.Haynes at TXST 45.Similar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
40.0%
J.Bentley steps back to pass. J.Bentley pass incomplete intended for J.Wayne. PENALTY on TXST-D.Williams, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
39.5%
C.Lacy rushed to TXST 18 for 12 yards. Tackled by K.Rodgers at TXST 18.Similar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
39.3%
J.Bentley pass complete to TXST 18. Catch made by C.Lacy at TXST 18. Gain of -3 yards. Tackled by L.Harris at TXST 21.Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 13
OPP 21
+4
39.7%
C.Lacy rushed to TXST 17 for 4 yards. Tackled by K.Rodgers at TXST 17.Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 9
OPP 17
0
40.7%
J.Bentley steps back to pass. J.Bentley pass incomplete intended for J.Wayne.Similar
Q2 8:17
4TH & 9
OPP 17
0
39.8%
D.Guajardo 35 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-T.Drosos, Holder-J.Martin.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9INT
11 plays · 55 yds · 6:2140% → 45%
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
39.6%
C.Hill rushed to TXST 27 for 2 yards. Tackled by S.Jennings; C.Johnson at TXST 27.Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
39.7%
B.McBride pass complete to TXST 27. Catch made by C.Hill at TXST 27. Gain of 11 yards. Tackled by S.Jennings; D.Luter at TXST 38.Similar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
40.6%
C.Hill rushed to TXST 37 for -1 yards. Tackled by C.Coleman at TXST 37.Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 11
OWN 37
0
40.2%
B.McBride steps back to pass. B.McBride pass incomplete intended for J.Banks.Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+14
39.0%
B.McBride pass complete to TXST 37. Catch made by T.Graham at TXST 37. Gain of 14 yards. Tackled by C.Thompson at SAB 49.Similar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
42.6%
B.McBride pass complete to SAB 49. Catch made by C.Hill at SAB 49. Gain of 0 yards. Tackled by A.DeShazor; W.Thomas at SAB 49.Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
42.7%
C.Hill rushed to SAB 47 for 2 yards. Tackled by G.Johnson at SAB 47.Similar
Q2 4:24
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+5
42.4%
C.Hill rushed to SAB 42 for 5 yards. Tackled by Q.Wilfawn; A.DeShazor at SAB 42.Similar
Q2 3:36
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+10
41.8%
B.McBride pass complete to SAB 42. Catch made by R.Groves at SAB 42. Gain of 10 yards. Tackled by Q.Wilfawn at SAB 32.Similar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
44.7%
B.McBride pass complete to SAB 32. Catch made by M.Hilts at SAB 32. Gain of 12 yards. Tackled by A.DeShazor at SAB 20.Similar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-20
45.2%
B.McBride pass INTERCEPTED at SAB 12. Intercepted by J.Brooks at SAB 12. Tackled by D.Cooper at TXST 32.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10TD
11 plays · 32 yds · 1:3765% → 74%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
35.4%
C.Lacy rushed to TXST 30 for 2 yards. Tackled by S.Obiang; L.Harris at TXST 30.Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+5
34.9%
T.Avery rushed to TXST 25 for 5 yards. Tackled by S.Tupou; T.Spears at TXST 25.Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+3
35.9%
T.Avery rushed to TXST 22 for 3 yards. Tackled by J.Revels at TXST 22.Similar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
34.8%
J.Bentley steps back to pass. J.Bentley pass incomplete intended for J.Wayne.Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+2
35.2%
T.Avery rushed to TXST 20 for 2 yards. Tackled by C.Patton at TXST 20.Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+11
36.2%
J.Bentley pass complete to TXST 20. Catch made by C.Lacy at TXST 20. Gain of 11 yards. C.Lacy FUMBLES, forced by S.Tupou. Fumble RECOVERED by SAB-C.Lacy at TXST 9. Tackled by TXST at TXST 9. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble and the play was upheld.Similar
Q2 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
34.8%
J.Bentley pass complete to TXST 9. Catch made by C.Sutherland at TXST 9. Gain of 8 yards. Tackled by T.Spears at TXST 1.Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
26.2%
J.Bentley pass complete to TXST 1. Catch made by L.Sefcik at TXST 1. Gain of 1 yards. L.Sefcik for 1 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11INT
7 plays · 52 yds · 2:5471% → 74%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
28.6%
B.Hill rushed to SAB 32 for 7 yards. Tackled by TXST at SAB 32.Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
27.8%
J.Bentley scrambles to SAB 38 for 6 yards. Tackled by TXST at SAB 38.Similar
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
27.3%
B.Hill rushed to SAB 39 for 1 yards. Tackled by TXST at SAB 39.Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+19
27.3%
J.Bentley pass complete to SAB 39. Catch made by J.Tolbert at SAB 39. Gain of 19 yards. Tackled by TXST at TXST 42.Similar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
26.7%
J.Bentley steps back to pass. J.Bentley pass incomplete intended for J.Tolbert.Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
26.7%
B.Hill rushed to TXST 38 for 4 yards. Tackled by TXST at TXST 38.Similar
Q3 12:06
3RD & 6
OPP 38
0
26.2%
J.Bentley pass INTERCEPTED at TXST 32. Intercepted by T.Lefeged at TXST 32. Tackled by SAB at SAB 43. PENALTY on TXST-TXST, Unsportsmanlike Conduct / Defense, 15 yards, accepted.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:1628% → 27%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
27.6%
B.McBride steps back to pass. B.McBride pass incomplete intended for TXST.Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
27.5%
B.McBride rushed to TXST 39 for 2 yards. Tackled by SAB at TXST 39.Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
26.9%
B.McBride steps back to pass. B.McBride pass incomplete intended for TXST. The Replay Official reviewed the targeting and the play was overturned. B.McBride steps back to pass. B.McBride pass incomplete intended for TXST. PENALTY on SAB-A.DeShazor, Defensive Targeting, 15 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
29.3%
B.Sturges rushed to SAB 46 for 0 yards. Tackled by J.Brooks at SAB 46.Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
29.0%
B.McBride steps back to pass. B.McBride pass incomplete intended for J.Banks.Similar
Q3 9:33
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+4
27.4%
B.Sturges rushed to SAB 42 for 4 yards. Tackled by SAB at SAB 42.Similar
Q3 9:40
4TH & 6
OPP 42
+19
26.5%
S.O'Kelly punts 19 yards to SAB 23, Center-K.Olivia. Downed by TXST.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13FG
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:3927% → 31%
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
27.4%
J.Jeter rushed to SAB 39 for 17 yards. Tackled by SAB at SAB 39.Similar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
28.4%
J.Jeter rushed to SAB 35 for 4 yards. Tackled by SAB at SAB 35. PENALTY on SAB-SAB, Unnecessary Roughness / Defense, 15 yards, accepted.Similar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
29.7%
J.Jeter rushed to SAB 21 for -1 yards. Tackled by SAB at SAB 21.Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 11
OPP 21
0
28.0%
B.McBride steps back to pass. B.McBride pass incomplete intended for J.Banks. PENALTY on SAB-SAB, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 6
OPP 16
-2
28.1%
J.Jeter rushed to SAB 18 for -2 yards. Tackled by SAB at SAB 18.Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 8
OPP 18
0
26.4%
B.McBride pass complete to SAB 18. Catch made by T.Graham at SAB 18. Gain of yards. Tackled by SAB at SAB 1. PENALTY on TXST-TXST, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 18
OPP 28
+7
24.7%
B.McBride rushed to SAB 21 for 7 yards. Tackled by SAB at SAB 21.Similar
Q3 4:03
4TH & 11
OPP 21
+43
30.6%
S.Keller 43 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-K.Olivia, Holder-D.Nunez.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3573% → 91%
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
27.5%
J.Bentley pass complete to SAB 25. Catch made by C.Lacy at SAB 25. Gain of 2 yards. Tackled by TXST at SAB 27.Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
26.6%
A.Phillips rushed to SAB 37 for yards. Tackled by TXST at SAB 37. PENALTY on SAB-SAB, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+2
27.7%
A.Phillips rushed to SAB 24 for 2 yards. Tackled by TXST at SAB 24.Similar
Q3 2:11
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+10
28.3%
J.Bentley pass complete to SAB 24. Catch made by C.Sutherland at SAB 24. Gain of yards. Tackled by TXST at SAB 36. The Replay Official reviewed the first down and the play was overturned. J.Bentley pass complete to SAB 24. Catch made by C.Sutherland at SAB 24. Gain of 10 yards. Tackled by TXST at SAB 34.Similar
Q3 1:40
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
26.9%
A.Phillips rushed to SAB 36 for 2 yards. Tackled by TXST at SAB 36.Similar
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
25.2%
J.Bentley pass complete to SAB 36. Catch made by J.Tolbert at SAB 36. Gain of 7 yards. Tackled by TXST at SAB 43.Similar
Q3 0:31
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+43
24.2%
J.Bentley pass complete to SAB 43. Catch made by J.Tolbert at SAB 43. Gain of 43 yards. Tackled by TXST at TXST 14.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
22.0%
J.Bentley steps back to pass. J.Bentley pass incomplete intended for J.Tolbert.Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+9
22.0%
A.Phillips rushed to TXST 5 for 9 yards. Tackled by TXST at TXST 5.Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+5
9.1%
A.Phillips rushed to TXST End Zone for 5 yards. A.Phillips for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15FUMBLE
3 plays · 5 yds · 1:0391% → 92%
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
9.3%
A.Phillips rushed to SAB 46 for 10 yards. Tackled by TXST at SAB 46.Similar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
8.6%
A.Phillips rushed to SAB 50 for 4 yards. Tackled by TXST at SAB 50.Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 6
OPP 0
-9
7.7%
B.Hill rushed to SAB 41 for -9 yards. B.Hill FUMBLES, forced by S.Obiang. Fumble RECOVERED by TXST-J.Revels at SAB 41. Tackled by SAB at SAB 41.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16TD
10 plays · 41 yds · 4:2915% → 32%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
14.8%
B.McBride steps back to pass. B.McBride pass incomplete intended for J.Banks.Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
14.5%
B.McBride steps back to pass. B.McBride pass incomplete intended for M.Barbee.Similar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+5
14.1%
B.McBride scrambles to SAB 36 for 5 yards. Tackled by SAB at SAB 36.Similar
Q4 11:04
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+11
13.7%
B.McBride scrambles to SAB 25 for 11 yards. Tackled by SAB at SAB 25.Similar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
13.3%
B.Sturges rushed to SAB 26 for -1 yards. Tackled by SAB at SAB 26.Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 11
OPP 26
0
12.7%
B.Sturges rushed to SAB 26 for 0 yards. Tackled by SAB at SAB 26.Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+7
10.0%
B.McBride scrambles to SAB 19 for 7 yards. Tackled by SAB at SAB 19.Similar
Q4 8:18
4TH & 4
OPP 19
0
8.8%
B.McBride steps back to pass. B.McBride pass incomplete intended for M.Barbee. PENALTY on SAB-SAB, Defensive Holding, 10 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q4 8:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-4
9.5%
B.Sturges rushed to SAB 13 for -4 yards. Tackled by SAB at SAB 13.Similar
Q4 7:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
31.7%
B.McBride pass complete to SAB 13. Catch made by M.Barbee at SAB 13. Gain of 13 yards. M.Barbee for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:5181% → 86%
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
18.7%
A.Phillips rushed to SAB 35 for 10 yards. Tackled by TXST at SAB 35.Similar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
17.9%
A.Phillips rushed to SAB 35 for 0 yards. Tackled by TXST at SAB 35.Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+10
16.0%
J.Bentley scrambles to SAB 45 for 10 yards. Tackled by TXST at SAB 45.Similar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
13.9%
B.Hill rushed to SAB 46 for 1 yards. Tackled by TXST at SAB 46.Similar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 9
OWN 46
-4
12.3%
B.Hill rushed to SAB 42 for -4 yards. Tackled by TXST at SAB 42.Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 13
OWN 42
+1
13.7%
J.Bentley pass complete to SAB 42. Catch made by B.Hill at SAB 42. Gain of 1 yards. Tackled by TXST at SAB 43.Similar
Q4 3:26
4TH & 12
OWN 43
+42
13.6%
J.Brooks punts 42 yards to TXST 15, Center-T.Drosos. Fair catch by R.Groves.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18TD
17 plays · 85 yds · 2:5921% → 61%
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
20.9%
B.McBride pass complete to TXST 15. Catch made by M.Barbee at TXST 15. Gain of -1 yards. Tackled by SAB at TXST 14.Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+9
20.3%
C.Hill rushed to TXST 23 for 9 yards. Tackled by SAB at TXST 23.Similar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+2
19.3%
C.Hill rushed to TXST 25 for 2 yards. Tackled by SAB at TXST 25.Similar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
19.3%
B.McBride pass complete to TXST 25. Catch made by J.Banks at TXST 25. Gain of 16 yards. Tackled by SAB at TXST 41.Similar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
19.3%
B.McBride scrambles to TXST 46 for 5 yards. Tackled by SAB at TXST 46.Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+20
19.7%
C.Hill rushed to SAB 30 for 20 yards. Tackled by SAB at SAB 30. PENALTY on TXST-TXST, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, accepted.Similar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+27
21.3%
C.Hill rushed to SAB 17 for 27 yards. Tackled by SAB at SAB 17.Similar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
27.1%
C.Hill rushed to SAB 14 for 3 yards. Tackled by SAB at SAB 14.Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+12
25.4%
B.McBride rushed to SAB 2 for 12 yards. Tackled by SAB at SAB 2.Similar
Q4 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
27.7%
C.Hill rushed to SAB 5 for -3 yards. Tackled by SAB at SAB 5.Similar
Q4 0:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
25.6%
B.McBride rushed to SAB 1 for 4 yards. Tackled by SAB at SAB 1.Similar
Q4 0:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
27.1%
J.Jeter rushed to SAB 1 for 0 yards. Tackled by SAB at SAB 1.Similar
Q4 0:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.3%
J.Jeter rushed to SAB End Zone for 1 yards. J.Jeter for 1 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19TD
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0060% → 89%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
39.9%
A.Phillips rushed to TXST 18 for 7 yards. Tackled by TXST at TXST 18.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+2
39.8%
A.Phillips rushed to TXST 16 for 2 yards. Tackled by TXST at TXST 16.Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 16
0
42.3%
A.Phillips rushed to TXST 16 for 0 yards. Tackled by TXST at TXST 16.Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+2
48.1%
A.Phillips rushed to TXST 14 for 2 yards. Tackled by TXST at TXST 14.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
39.8%
A.Phillips rushed to TXST 12 for 2 yards. Tackled by TXST at TXST 12.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
11.5%
J.Bentley pass complete to TXST 12. Catch made by J.Tolbert at TXST 12. Gain of 12 yards. J.Tolbert for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20TD
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0029% → 68%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
28.9%
B.Sturges rushed to SAB 22 for 3 yards. Tackled by SAB at SAB 22.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+5
28.9%
B.Sturges rushed to SAB 17 for 5 yards. Tackled by SAB at SAB 17.Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+3
26.7%
B.McBride pass complete to SAB 17. Catch made by J.Banks at SAB 17. Gain of 3 yards. Tackled by SAB at SAB 14.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
29.9%
B.McBride rushed to SAB 6 for 8 yards. Tackled by SAB at SAB 6.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+2
29.9%
B.Sturges rushed to SAB 4 for 2 yards. Tackled by SAB at SAB 4.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
30.3%
B.McBride rushed to SAB 4 for 0 yards. Tackled by SAB at SAB 4.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
67.5%
B.Sturges rushed to SAB End Zone for 4 yards. B.Sturges for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21MISSED FG
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0052% → 48%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
51.8%
J.Jeter rushed to SAB 10 for 15 yards. Tackled by SAB at SAB 10.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
51.8%
J.Jeter rushed to SAB 10 for 0 yards. Tackled by SAB at SAB 10.Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
51.8%
B.McBride steps back to pass. B.McBride sacked at SAB 11 for -1 yards (C.Henderson)Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+3
50.0%
B.McBride rushed to SAB 8 for 3 yards. Tackled by SAB at SAB 8.Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
0
48.3%
S.Keller 25 yard field goal attempt is no good, Center-K.Olivia, Holder-D.Nunez.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22FUMBLE
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
37.9%
A.Phillips rushed to TXST 23 for 2 yards. Tackled by TXST at TXST 23.Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+2
37.9%
A.Phillips rushed to TXST 21 for 2 yards. Tackled by TXST at TXST 21.Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
-3
39.0%
A.Phillips rushed to TXST 24 for -3 yards. A.Phillips FUMBLES, forced by M.Coleman. Fumble RECOVERED by TXST-S.Tupou at TXST 24. Tackled by SAB at TXST 24.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+61
TD · Q4 0:18
J.Jeter rushed to SAB End Zone for 1 yards. J.Jeter for 1 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
+37.9
TD · OT 0:00
B.Sturges rushed to SAB End Zone for 4 yards. B.Sturges for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
+37.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com