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GASO

Georgia Southern 24 at Troy 27

TROY
2021 · Week 6 · Oct 9, 2021 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreGASO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:17 · Luke Magliozzi punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Khaleb Hood at the GeoSo 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 146Pregame prior+1.3Home team on offense+1.7Score differential−1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Garbage-time factor−1.6Blowout margin−1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:55: Reggie Todd 26 Yd pass from Gunnar Watson (Brooks Buce Kick) — TROY win probability +8.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:57: Logan Wright run for 1 yd for a TD, (J. Tomlin Run For Two-point Conversion) — GASO win probability +10.3 pts (now 17%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:45: Khaleb Hood run for 23 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK) — GASO win probability +18.4 pts (now 34%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 6:08: Alex Raynor 38 yd FG GOOD — GASO win probability +14.3 pts (now 48%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:46: Brooks Buce 24 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +24.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 6 of 10GASO made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 10:43TROY 4th & 6 at GASO 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.6%
    87% to make
    Punt
    65.0%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:39GASO 4th & 2 at GASO 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:22TROY 4th & 12 at GASO 35, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.3%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    65.5%
    45% to make
    Punt
    65.3%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:33GASO 4th & 5 at GASO 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:17GASO 4th & 10 at TROY 10, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−0.7
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.0%
    88% to make
    Punt
    24.8%−4.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:59TROY 4th & 12 at TROY 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−1.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:07GASO 4th & 9 at GASO 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:31TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 31, up 7
    Close callPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.7%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:05GASO 4th & 15 at GASO 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−2.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:43TROY 4th & 8 at TROY 49, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.0%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    79.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:34GASO 4th & 27 at GASO 9, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−2.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:03TROY 4th & 2 at TROY 33, up 6
    Close callPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:04GASO 4th & 23 at GASO 48, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−4.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:47TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 19, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−1.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:53GASO 4th & 13 at TROY 25, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−2.4
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    17.9%−9.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:00TROY 4th & 11 at TROY 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−5.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:00GASO 4th & 1 at TROY 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    28.3%−5.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    27.6%−6.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:08GASO 4th & 10 at TROY 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−5.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    20.0%−14.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:17TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−1.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:46TROY 4th & 6 at GASO 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−1.8
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    22.9%−32.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3GASO made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 0:37TROY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:27TROY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:55TROY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:57GASO Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    12.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    12.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:45GASO Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 4:1769% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
68.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+10
68.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 10 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
68.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 4 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+6
68.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
68.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 5 yds to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+32
68.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 32 yds to the GeoSo 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
68.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 13Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
68.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+2
68.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 2 yds to the GeoSo 11Similar
Q1 10:43
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+29
68.8%
Brooks Buce 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0432% → 31%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
68.5%
Justin Tomlin run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
68.5%
Justin Tomlin run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
68.6%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Logan Wright for 2 yds to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q1 8:39
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
68.7%
Anthony Beck II punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3DOWNS
11 plays · 44 yds · 4:1769% → 68%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
68.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 7 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 3
OWN 28
0
68.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+4
68.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 4 yds to the Troy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
68.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 10 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
68.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 12 yds to the GeoSo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
69.1%
Jamontez Woods run for no gain to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+13
69.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 13 yds to the GeoSo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
69.3%
Gunnar Watson run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 30 fumbled, recovered by Troy Grant BettsSimilar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
69.3%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Justin Ellis for 0 yards to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 12
OPP 35
0
68.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:22
4TH & 12
OPP 35
0
68.2%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4932% → 32%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
68.4%
Justin Tomlin run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
67.7%
Justin Tomlin run for no gain to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
67.8%
Cam Ransom sacked by TJ Harris for 0 yards to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q1 2:33
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
68.4%
Anthony Beck II punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5TD
6 plays · 91 yds · 1:5668% → 74%
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+14
68.0%
Jamontez Woods run for 14 yds to the Troy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
68.1%
Jamontez Woods run for 4 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+30
68.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 30 yds to the GeoSo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
69.3%
TROY Penalty, False Start (Deandre Butler) to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+33
68.7%
Jamontez Woods run for 33 yds to the GeoSo 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
73.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 15 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6FG
7 plays · 51 yds · 2:4328% → 29%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+23
72.1%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Amare Jones for 23 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+30
71.5%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 30 yds to the Troy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
70.9%
Logan Wright run for 5 yds to the Troy 3Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
70.9%
Logan Wright run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 5Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
71.5%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 10Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
71.6%
Logan Wright run for no gain to the Troy 10Similar
Q2 12:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
71.5%
Alex Raynor 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:1872% → 71%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.4%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Dillon Springer for 0 yards to the Troy 17Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+6
72.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 6 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
71.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:59
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
71.4%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Khaleb Hood at the GeoSo 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:5228% → 27%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
71.8%
Khaleb Hood run for no gain to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-1
72.1%
Gerald Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 11
OWN 32
+2
72.7%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Darrell Baker Jr. for 2 yds to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q2 9:07
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
73.5%
Anthony Beck II punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3673% → 73%
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
73.1%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 21Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 11
OWN 21
0
73.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:07
3RD & 11
OWN 21
+10
72.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 10 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q2 7:31
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
73.3%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 47 yds, downed at the GeoSo 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:2627% → 25%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
73.5%
Justin Tomlin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+2
73.6%
Jalen White run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 24Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
74.1%
Justin Tomlin sacked by Jayden McDonald for 0 yards to the GeoSo 17Similar
Q2 6:05
4TH & 15
OWN 17
0
75.1%
Anthony Beck II punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11TD
4 plays · 57 yds · 1:3876% → 83%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
75.7%
Jamontez Woods run for 3 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+12
75.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deyunkrea Lewis for 12 yds to the GeoSo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
76.0%
Jamontez Woods run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+34
82.9%
Jamontez Woods run for 34 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:3419% → 18%
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
81.1%
Logan Wright run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-4
81.1%
Logan Wright run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q2 4:27
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+15
81.5%
TOMLIN, Justin pass to the left incomplete intended for JONES, Amare thrown to the GSU35. PENALTY TRY Personal Foul on JIBUNOR, Richard enforced 15 yards from the GSU23 to the GSU38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
81.7%
Justin Tomlin pass intercepted return for no gain to the Troy 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13DOWNS
7 plays · 5 yds · 3:0183% → 85%
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
83.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 8 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 2
OPP 45
-3
83.3%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q2 3:43
4TH & 8
OWN 49
+3
81.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
84.7%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Anthony Wilson for 0 yards to the Troy 49Similar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
85.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 12 yds to the GeoSo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
85.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14END OF HALF
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:4217% → 16%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
83.0%
Cam Ransom pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
83.2%
Cam Ransom pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
84.4%
Cam Ransom pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 9 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 1
OPP 44
0
83.1%
Cam Ransom pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
83.6%
Cam Ransom pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -17 yds · 2:2617% → 14%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
83.4%
J.D. King run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 24
-10
83.6%
KING, J.D. rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the GSU26 (PETTUS, Dell;WILLIAMS, Zion). PENALTY GSU Holding on CROWDER, Khalil enforced 10 yards from the GSU24 to the GSU14 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 14
-6
83.7%
Logan Wright run for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSo 8Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 28
OWN 8
+1
84.4%
Justin Tomlin run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 9Similar
Q3 12:34
4TH & 27
OWN 9
0
85.6%
Anthony Beck II punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 1:3986% → 95%
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
86.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 3 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+31
86.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 31 yds to the GeoSo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
86.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+26
94.9%
Reggie Todd 26 Yd pass from Gunnar Watson (Brooks Buce Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 17TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:586% → 17%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+57
94.1%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 57 yds to the Troy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
93.0%
Logan Wright run for 3 yds to the Troy 15Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+3
93.0%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 3 yds to the Troy 12Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+7
93.5%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 7 yds to the Troy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
93.0%
Gerald Green run for 4 yds to the Troy 1Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.8%
Logan Wright run for 1 yd for a TD, (J. Tomlin Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18FUMBLE
1 play · 10 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
86.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 10 yds to the Troy 35 fumbled, recovered by GeoSo Quin WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 19TD
3 plays · 35 yds · 1:0117% → 34%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
83.0%
Justin Tomlin run for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 40Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 15
OPP 40
+17
84.9%
pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 17 yds to the Troy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
66.5%
Khaleb Hood run for 23 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4275% → 73%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
74.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jamontez Woods for 8 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
74.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:03
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
73.4%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Khaleb Hood at the GeoSo 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 21PUNT
11 plays · 31 yds · 4:5928% → 26%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+19
72.1%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 19 yds to the GeoSo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
71.0%
Justin Tomlin run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+8
70.5%
Justin Tomlin run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
69.2%
Gerald Green run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 49Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
68.7%
Justin Tomlin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+12
69.9%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Amare Jones for 12 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
68.5%
Justin Tomlin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
68.5%
Jalen White run for 2 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 8
OPP 37
-5
69.0%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 42Similar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 13
OPP 42
0
71.5%
Justin Tomlin sacked by Javon Solomon for 0 yards to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q3 1:04
4TH & 23
OWN 48
0
73.9%
Anthony Beck II punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1779% → 76%
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
78.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the Troy 16Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+3
78.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to AJ Lewis for 3 yds to the Troy 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 19
0
77.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
76.4%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Khaleb Hood at the GeoSo 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 23FG
6 plays · 31 yds · 1:5430% → 30%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+24
69.6%
Gerald Green run for 24 yds to the Troy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
66.4%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Gerald Green for 10 yds to the Troy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
65.7%
Gerald Green run for 3 yds to the Troy 19Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 7
OPP 19
0
65.7%
Justin Tomlin sacked by Richard Jibunor for 0 yards to the Troy 25Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 13
OPP 25
0
70.7%
Justin Tomlin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:53
4TH & 13
OPP 25
+42
70.3%
Alex Raynor 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5372% → 68%
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
71.9%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 24Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
71.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
69.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:00
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
68.8%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Khaleb Hood at the GeoSo 38Similar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
67.5%
TOMLIN, Justin pass to the left incomplete intended for HOOD, Khaleb thrown to the TRY27. PENALTY TRY Roughing the Passer on GRIFFIN, Elgin enforced 15 yards from the GSU38 to the TRY47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 25FG
12 plays · 41 yds · 5:5236% → 48%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
64.2%
Logan Wright run for no gain to the Troy 47Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-4
65.2%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Logan Wright for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSo 49Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 14
OWN 49
+13
69.1%
Justin Tomlin run for 13 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q4 12:00
4TH & 1
OPP 38
-5
66.6%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Illegal Snap on LANGEMEIER, Logan enforced (-5 Yards) to the Troy 43Similar
Q4 12:00
4TH & 6
OPP 43
+5
68.0%
TROY Penalty, Disconcerting Signals on STRONG, Charles enforced (5 Yards) to the Troy 38Similar
Q4 12:00
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+5
66.6%
J.D. King run for 5 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
62.6%
J.D. King run for 2 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+10
62.6%
TOMLIN, Justin pass to the left incomplete intended for WRIGHT, Logan thrown to the TRY20. PENALTY TRY Holding on PALMER, Taiyon enforced 10 yards from the TRY31 to the TRY21 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
62.1%
Justin Tomlin sacked by Elgin Griffin for 0 yards to the Troy 30Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 19
OPP 30
+7
65.4%
Jalen White run for 7 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 12
OPP 23
+2
66.0%
J.D. King run for 2 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q4 6:08
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+38
51.7%
Alex Raynor 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5159% → 57%
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
59.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 6 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
63.0%
Jamontez Woods run for 1 yd to the Troy 32Similar
Q4 5:08
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
60.0%
Gunnar Watson sacked by C.J. Wright for 0 yards to the Troy 30Similar
Q4 4:17
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
56.5%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Khaleb Hood at the GeoSo 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 27INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0048% → 34%
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
52.4%
Justin Tomlin pass intercepted return for no gain to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
66.3%
JOHNSON, Tez rush to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the GSU42, End of Play. PENALTY TRY Holding on STIDHAM, Austin enforced 10 yards from the GSU46 to the TRY44 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 28FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 2:2363% → 89%
Q4 4:09
1ST & 20
OWN 44
+1
62.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 1 yd to the Troy 45Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 19
OWN 45
+15
61.5%
WATSON, Gunnar pass to the left incomplete intended for TODD, Reggie thrown to the GSU15. PENALTY GSU Pass Interference on BRIDE, Tyler enforced 15 yards to the GSU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+31
66.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Orlando Lacey for 31 yds to the GeoSo 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
68.4%
Jamontez Woods run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 8Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
68.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 6Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
67.4%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the GeoSo 6Similar
Q4 1:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
89.4%
Brooks Buce 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 29INT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:1415% → 14%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
84.6%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Beau Johnson for 15 yds to the GeoSo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-15
82.3%
TOMLIN, Justin pass to the right complete for 9 yards to JOHNSON, Beau caught at the GSU50 and advanced to the TRY45 (STEWARD, Reddy;ROBERTSON, KJ). PENALTY GSU Pass Interference on BURGESS JR., Derwin enforced 15 yards to the GSU31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 25
OWN 31
+8
85.4%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Beau Johnson for 8 yds to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 17
OWN 39
+9
85.1%
Justin Tomlin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 9 yds to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
86.1%
Justin Tomlin pass intercepted return for no gain to the Troy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 1:46
Brooks Buce 24 yd FG GOOD
+24.9
TD · Q3 6:45
Khaleb Hood run for 23 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK)
-18.4
FG · Q4 6:08
Alex Raynor 38 yd FG GOOD
-14.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com