2021 · Week 5 · Oct 2, 2021 · Brooks Stadium (SC)
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Win probability · CCU
modelCCU aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playCCU scoreULM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:53 · Devyn McCormick punt for 37 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:06: Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 5 yds for a TD, (Liam Gray KICK) — ULM win probability +0.2 pts (now 3%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- FG · Q1 0:55: Calum Sutherland 40 yd FG GOOD — ULM win probability +0.5 pts (now 4%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:50: Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 30 yds for a TD, (Liam Gray KICK) — CCU win probability +1.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:32: Braydon Bennett run for 29 yds for a TD, (Liam Gray KICK) — CCU win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 7:31: Calum Sutherland 30 yd FG GOOD — ULM win probability +0.3 pts (now 1%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ULM made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
- Q1 12:34ULM 4th & 5 at ULM 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.9%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.9%average punt
- Q1 7:55ULM 4th & 9 at ULM 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snapGo for it3.2%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.3%average punt
- Q1 2:53ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 34, down 14Close callPunted · 3.3% before the snapGo for it3.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.3%−0.1average punt
- Q1 0:55ULM 4th & 10 at CCU 22, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.6% before the snapGo for it3.4%−0.128% to convertField goalTheir call3.5%72% to makePunt2.9%−0.6average punt
- Q2 11:19ULM 4th & 9 at ULM 32, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snapGo for it2.9%−0.331% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.2%average punt
- Q2 8:01ULM 4th & 7 at CCU 44, down 25Close callPunted · 3.2% before the snapGo for it3.2%37% to convertField goal3.0%−0.227% to makePuntTheir call3.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 1:23ULM 4th & 3 at ULM 44, down 32Close callPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 12:55CCU 4th & 3 at CCU 32, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.7%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q3 7:31ULM 4th & 13 at CCU 13, down 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.117% to convertField goalTheir call0.3%85% to makePunt-0.2%−0.4average punt
- Q4 9:53ULM 4th & 14 at ULM 40, down 46Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 2:20ULM 4th & 11 at ULM 24, down 53Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 9:06CCU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.8%97% to makeGo for two96.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:46CCU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.8%97% to makeGo for two96.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:50CCU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.2%97% to makeGo for two97.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:32CCU Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:28CCU Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:56CCU Touchdown, up 45 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:34CCU Touchdown, up 52 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartULMDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 23 yds · 2:262% → 3%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Boogie Knight for 3 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-4
97.7%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Teddy Gallagher for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+19
97.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Boogie Knight for 19 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
97.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jared Sparks for 3 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q1 12:34
4TH & 5
OWN 48
+25
97.4%
Devyn McCormick punt for 32 yds , Jaivon Heiligh returns for 25 yds to the CCaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 2TD7 plays · 55 yds · 3:2897% → 97%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
97.4%
McCall,Grayson rush for 11 yards gain to the ULM44 (Woodard,Zack; Swinney,Keilos) PENALTY CCU Holding (Carter,Trey) 10 yards from CCU45 to CCU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 20
OWN 35
+12
97.4%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 12 yds to the CCaro 47Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+33
97.4%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 33 yds to the LaMon 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
97.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 5 yds for a TD, (Liam Gray KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:113% → 3%
Q1 7:55
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
97.1%
Devyn McCormick punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jaivon Heiligh at the CCaro 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 4TD6 plays · 63 yds · 3:0997% → 97%
Q1 7:55
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+7
97.1%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 7 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+27
97.1%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 27 yds to the LaMon 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+13
97.1%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 13 yds to the LaMon 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:533% → 3%
Q1 4:46
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+7
97.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jared Sparks for 7 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
97.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Boogie Knight for 5 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q1 2:53
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
97.0%
Devyn McCormick punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jaivon Heiligh at the CCaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 6FUMBLE2 plays · -1 yds · 0:4697% → 97%
ULMDrive 7FG4 plays · 0 yds · 1:123% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 8TD9 plays · 81 yds · 2:5796% → 97%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+17
96.3%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 17 yds to the CCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
97.4%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 30 yds for a TD, (Liam Gray KICK)Similar
Q2 12:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
97.3%
PENALTY CCU False Start (Wilson,Donnell) 5 yards from ULM03 to ULM08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9PUNT TD6 plays · 1 yds · 1:233% → 4%
ULMDrive 10PUNT11 plays · 33 yds · 3:143% → 3%
CCUDrive 11TD7 plays · 86 yds · 4:2998% → 99%
ULMDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 27 yds · 2:031% → 1%
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
99.3%
Colby Suits pass complete to Andrew Henry for 3 yds to the LaMon 20Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+17
99.3%
Colby Suits pass complete to Zach Jackson for 17 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
99.3%
Colby Suits pass complete to Jared Sparks for 7 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 13FG10 plays · 52 yds · 1:2399% → 100%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
99.4%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Reese White for 12 yds to the CCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
99.4%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 6 yds to the CCaro 38Similar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+20
99.5%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kameron Brown for 20 yds to the LaMon 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
99.5%
PENALTY CCU False Start (Likely,Isaiah) 5 yards from ULM31 to ULM36. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
ULMDrive 15FG13 plays · 59 yds · 5:240% → 1%
Q3 12:55
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+17
99.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Zach Jackson for 17 yds to the CCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+20
99.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Boogie Knight for 20 yds to the CCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
99.6%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Will Derrick for 12 yds to the CCaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
99.5%
PENALTY ULM False Start (Davis,Aries) 5 yards from CCU03 to CCU08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 16TD18 plays · 75 yds · 8:03100% → 100%
Q3 7:31
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+6
99.8%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Kameron Brown for 6 yds to the CCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+15
99.8%
Carpenter,Bryce pass incomplete to Mobley,Tyson PENALTY ULM Pass Interference (Williams,Mark) 15 yards from CCU48 to ULM37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+1
99.8%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Kameron Brown for 1 yd to the LaMon 23Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
99.8%
Carpenter,Bryce rush for 4 yards gain to the ULM01 (Newton,Josh) PENALTY CCU Holding (McSweeney,Patrick) 10 yards from ULM05 to ULM15. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17INT5 plays · 26 yds · 0:530% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 18TD2 plays · 40 yds · 0:39100% → 100%
ULMDrive 19PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 3:030% → 0%
Q4 12:56
3RD & 4
50
+10
99.9%
Jiya Wright run for 10 yds to the LaMon 40 Jiya Wright fumbled, forced by JT Killen, recovered by LaMon Aries DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 20TD10 plays · 75 yds · 6:19100% → 100%
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
99.9%
Connelly,Isaiah rush for 6 yards gain to the CCU48 (Calligan,Keydrain) PENALTY CCU Illegal Formation 5 yards from CCU42 to CCU37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+10
99.9%
Jarrett Guest pass complete to Christian Malloy for 10 yds to the CCaro 47Similar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
99.9%
Jarrett Guest pass complete to Christian Malloy for 1 yd to the LaMon 31Similar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+8
99.9%
Jarrett Guest pass complete to DJ Johnson for 8 yds to the LaMon 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
100.0%
Zachary Stevens pass complete to Jared Brown for 5 yds for a TD, (Kieran Colahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:140% → 0%
Q4 2:20
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
100.0%
Devyn McCormick punt for 48 yds , Jacob Proche returns for no gain to the CCaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 22END OF GAME3 plays · 9 yds · 2:20100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:32
Braydon Bennett run for 29 yds for a TD, (Liam Gray KICK)
+1.4
TD · Q2 12:50
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 30 yds for a TD, (Liam Gray KICK)
+1.1
FG · Q1 0:55
Calum Sutherland 40 yd FG GOOD
-0.5